Premium/Non-Premium Positions and Super Bowl Wins Over 10 Years

[MacReady]

What I did is I compiled a list of first round picks from the past ten Super Bowl winning teams.  I looked at their previous eight years of drafts because of longevity of NFL careers and 8 years being plenty of time to judge/reflect on first round picks.  Then I provided my analysis for the drafting of each team leading up to their Super Bowl wins.  

This almost completely confirms what I’ve been saying in here for a very long time.  To remind everyone of what I’ve been saying, here are my points:

*Interior Offensive Linemen in the first round is a stupid idea.  The value just isn’t there.  
*WR should never be taken higher than 24th overall.  
*ILB is not a premium position that should be taken in the first round.  
*EDGE, QB, OT are premium positions.  
*Safety is a wildly underrated position and it DOES have first round value.  

I really had/have no opinion on RB.  I think they CAN be right picks, but also that they can be wrong picks and that you should probably go more premium. 

The facts speak for themselves. 

WR - Late first is acceptable.
TE - Late first is acceptable.
ILB - Late first is SOMETIMES acceptable.
IOL - Never.  Never.  Never ever ever.  Never. 

 

2017 Eagles

EDGE Derek Barnett 14th Overall
QB Carson Wentz 2nd Overall
WR Nelson Agholor 20th Overall
ILB Marcus Smith 26th Overall
T Lane Johnson 4th Overall
DT Fletcher Cox 12th Overall
G Danny Watkins 23rd Overall
EDGE Brandon Graham 13th Overall

2017 Eagles Analysis:  
Flat out, the Eagles do not win the Super Bowl without their premium position draft picks.  Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham combined on a near-game sealing sack, fumble recovery late.  Fletcher Cox was an absolute monster.  Lane Johnson was a starter on a Super Bowl OL.  

As far as non-premium positions, the Eagles flat out busted on Marcus Smith and Danny Watkins.  They were useless bust picks they should not have taken.  Their premium hits bailed them out of their non-premium busts.  Nelson Agholor, 20th overall, was a role player and nothing more.  They could have gotten that production out of a free agent.  

2016 Patriots

No first
DL Malcolm Brown 32nd Overall
DL Dominique Easley Dominique Easley 29th Overall
No first
EDGE Chandler Jones 21st Overall
ILB Dont’a Hightower 25th Overall
T Nate Solder 17th Overall
S - Devin McCourty 27th Overall

2016 Patriots Analysis:
Patriots don’t win this one without going premium.  My argument takes a small hit with Hightower’s huge plays in the Super Bowl, but in my defense, Hightower is an extremely rare ILB that could also be an EDGE on most teams, and his impact actually came in pass rushing.  Patriots don’t win without their DL, EDGE, OT, Safety picks.  

2015 Broncos

EDGE Shane Ray 23rd Overall
DB Bradley Roby 31st Overall
DL Sylvester Williams 28th Overall
No First
EDGE Von Miller 2nd Overall
WR Demaryius Thomas 22nd Overall
QB Tim Tebow 25th Overall
RB - Knowshon Moreno 12th Overall
DL Robert Ayers 18th Overall
OT Ryan Clady 12th Overall

2015 Broncos Analysis:
They don’t win without premium positions.  Shane Ray had a forced fumble in the Super Bowl, they don’t even get to the Super Bowl without Miller.  Roby had three passes defended in Super Bowl, Williams had 2 passes defended in Super Bowl.  The WR they picked was 22nd overall.  

2014 Patriots

DL Dominique Easley 29th Overall
No first
EDGE Chandler Jones 21st Overall
ILB Dont’a Hightower 25th Overall
T Nate Solder 17th Overall
S - Devin McCourty 27th Overall
No First
LB Jerod Mayo 10th overall
DB Brandon Meriweather 24th Overall

2014 Patriots Analysis:
Again, they don’t win without premium positions.  Jerod Mayo played in 6 games and was NOT a part of their playoff run.  

2013 Seahawks

No First
EDGE Bruce Irvin 15th Overall
OT James Carpenter 25th Overall
OT Russel Okung 6th Overall
DB Earl Thomas 14th Overall
LB Aaron Curry 4th Overall
DE Lawrence Jackson 28th Overall
No First
DB Kelly Jennings 31st Overall

2013 Seahawks Analysis:
They don’t win without having taken two starting OT, a Safety, an EDGE.  Their ILB wasn’t even on the team and was a bust.  

2012 Ravens

No First (But Courtney Upshaw at 35th was influential)
Jimmy Smith 27th Overall
No First
OT Michael Oher 23rd Overall
QB Joe Flacco 18th Overall
IOL Ben Grubbs 29th Overall
DL Haloti Ngata 12th Overall
WR Mark Clayton 22nd Overall

2012 Ravens Analysis:  
They don’t win without going premium.  Smith, Oher, Flacco and Ngata were very influential in that Super Bowl win.  The IOL they picked?  Not in the league at time of Super Bowl.  Their WR?  Not in league at time of Super Bowl.  

2011 Giants

DB Prince Amukamara 19th Overall
EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul 15th Overall
WR Hakeem Nicks 29th Overall
DB Kenny Phillips 31st Overall
DB Aaron Ross 20th Overall
EDGE Mathias Kiwanuka 32nd Overall
No First
Philip Rivers (Eli Manning) 4th Overall

2011 Giants Analysis:  
Don’t win without the DBs they selected.  JPP had 16.5 sacks for them that year.  Eli Manning was Eli Manning in the playoffs.  Admittedly, Nicks had a huge impact on that run.  Notice where he was selected?  

2010 Packers

OT Bryan Bulaga 23rd Overall
DL BJ Raji 9th Overall
EDGE Clay Matthews 26th Overall
No First
Justin Harrell 16th Overall
ILB AJ Hawk - 5th Overall
QB Aaron Rodgers 24th Overall
DB Ahmad Carroll 25th Overall
ILB - Nick Barnett 29th Overall

2010 Packers Analysis:
The Packers are the only team to win a Super Bowl in the past ten years with a top ten ILB who actually played in the Super Bowl.  We all know that Hawk was just there.  He was not something we could not have won the Super Bowl without.  EDGE and DL made that defense elite.  

2009 Saints

DB Malcolm Jenkins 14th Overall
DL Sedrick Ellis 7th Overall
WR Robert Meachem 27th Overall
RB Reggie Bush 2nd Overall
OT Jammal Brown 13th Overall
EDGE Will Smith 18th Overall
DL Johnathan Sullivan 6th Overall
WR Donte Stallworth 13th Overall
DL Charles Grant 25th Overall

2009 Saints Analysis:  
Two receivers in the first?  Evidence against my argument?  Nope.  Stallworth was NOT in the league the year the Saints won, and he hadn’t been a Saint for three years.  Meachem had an impact.  He was 27th overall.  Their DL/EDGE had huge seasons for them that year except for Sullivan, who was out of the league.  Smith, Grant and Ellis all had huge roles.  Grant as a third string pass rusher, Smith had over 10 sacks, Ellis had a hell of a season as a nose tackle.  

2008 Steelers

RB Rashard Mendenhall 23rd Overall
ILB Lawrence Timmons 15th Overall
WR Santonio Holmes 25th Overall
TE Heath Miller 30th Overall
QB Ben Roethlisberger 11th Overall
DB Troy Polamalu 16th Overall
IOL Kendall Simmons 30th Overall
DL Casey Hampton 19th Overall

2008 Steelers Analysis:  
That IOL you see?  Again, not even on the team when they won.  Not even in the league.  Holmes had an impact.  AGAIN, 25th overall.  Miller had a big impact.  AGAIN, 30th overall.  The only outlier here is Timmons.  He started two whole games in the regular season.  Didn’t start in any playoff games.  Was a backup.  NOT influential.  

Non-Premium Position Performance in Super Bowls:  

Big Impact
Moderate Impact
Small Impact
Not on team

TE - Heath Miller 30th Overall

WR - Santonio Holmes 25th Overall WR Donte Stallworth 13th Overall WR Robert Meachem 27th Overall WR Hakeem Nicks 29th Overall WR Mark Clayton 22nd Overall WR Demaryius Thomas 22nd Overall WR Nelson Agholor 20th Overall

IOL - Kendall Simmons 30th Overall IOL Ben Grubbs 29th Overall G Danny Watkins 23rd Overall

ILB - ILB Lawrence Timmons 15th Overall ILB - Nick Barnett 29th Overall ILB AJ Hawk - 5th Overall LB Aaron Curry 4th Overall LB Jerod Mayo 10th overall ILB Dont’a Hightower 25th Overall ILB Marcus Smith 26th Overall

*So over the past ten years, Super Bowl winning teams have selected a single Tight End in the eight years leading up to their Super Bowls.  That was 30th overall. 

*Over the past ten years, Super Bowl winning teams have selected 7 receivers.  Two of them had big impacts, both 25th overall or later.  One had a moderate impact, 27th overall.  One of them wasn't on the team.  Two of them had minimal impacts.  D. Thomas had a single catch in that Super Bowl. 

*Over the past ten years, Super Bowl winning teams have taken three IOL in the first round.  They were all late IOL.  Not a single solitary one was on the team at the time of the Super Bowl win. 

*7 times has an ILB been selected in the first round within 8 years of a team winning the Super Bowl.  Only one of them had a significant impact.  He was 25th overall. 

[AlexGreen#20]

I think you have to kick D. Thomas up to a significant impact when you look at the whole year.

I also think you have to kick Hawk up to a moderate impact considering the play that year.

Also hard to make these calls with such small sample sizes.

[rcon14]

I think this is an interesting starting point to a discussion. There is one piece missing from the methodology that I think has to factor in as well, and that is replacability. Looking at the draft from an economic perspective, an important piece to consider is the cost of players at a particular position in free agency. I did a study last winter (pre-FA 2018) on the average cost of player contracts by position. For positions with only one starter (QB, RB, TE, etc.) I used the top-20 at position, for those with two starters I used top-40. It isn't a perfect methodology by any means, but here were the results

QB: 20.7M, LT: 10.2M, EDGE: 9.2M, WR: 8.8M, IDL: 8.4M, CB: 7.2M, TE: 7.2M, FS: 7.1M, C: 6.3M, RT: 6.3M, OG: 5.5M, Off-ball LB: 5.4M, SS: 5M, RB: 4.9M

There are some oddities in the data as well. IOL contracts are starting to increase now, so we're seeing some more appreciation of their skill, same is happening with RT. However, it is clear that as a tier it is clearly behind the others. If I had to tier out the value of a position, which I think works better than ranking them, I'd do it like so:

QB

LT, EDGE

WR, IDL, CB, FS

TE, IOL, RT

Off-ball LB, SS

RB

One thing to note is that TEs do get paid highly, but in terms of production, they're a pretty terrible value dollar-for-dollar.

I'm glad to see stuff like this on the forum. It's stuff that used to be very prevalent a decade or so ago, little research projects. Glad to see another one.

[MacReady]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

I think you have to kick D. Thomas up to a significant impact when you look at the whole year.

I also think you have to kick Hawk up to a moderate impact considering the play that year.

Also hard to make these calls with such small sample sizes.

I'd accept D. Thomas as a significant impact.  Didn't look at his full season.  Kinda just looked at Super Bowl impacts. 

Hawk maybe. 

Sample sizes?  That's ten years worth of Super Bowl teams avoiding and or missing on IOL.  That's ten teams and 8 years each worth of not a single team using a top 10 pick on a WR/TE/IOL. 

Don't make me do this for another ten years. 

[AlexGreen#20]

7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'd accept D. Thomas as a significant impact.  Didn't look at his full season.  Kinda just looked at Super Bowl impacts. 

Hawk maybe. 

Sample sizes?  That's ten years worth of Super Bowl teams avoiding and or missing on IOL.  That's ten teams and 8 years each worth of not a single team using a top 10 pick on a WR/TE/IOL. 

Don't make me do this for another ten years. 

It's still only 80 picks spread over 10 positions (if we're being generous).

If you did it for another ten years, you introduce the problem of dealing with a transitioning league. Player value at a bunch of positions has changed significantly from 1998 to 2018. 

It's not that I think there's a flaw in your data aquisition method, more that you could be perfect and there's still not a way to conclude just based off on not having enough Superbowl winners every year. 

[squire12]

41 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

2017 Eagles

EDGE Derek Barnett 14th Overall
QB Nick Foles 2nd Overall   (88th pick in 2012, not 2nd overall)
WR Nelson Agholor 20th Overall
ILB Marcus Smith 26th Overall
T Lane Johnson 4th Overall
DT Fletcher Cox 12th Overall
G Danny Watkins 23rd Overall
EDGE Brandon Graham 13th Overall

 

[MacReady]

Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

If you did it for another ten years, you introduce the problem of dealing with a transitioning league. Player value at a bunch of positions has changed significantly from 1998 to 2018.

I still think the principle remains the same from 2000 - present. 

 

[Arthur Penske]

45 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

 

 

2017 Eagles

EDGE Derek Barnett 14th Overall
QB Nick Foles 2nd Overall
WR Nelson Agholor 20th Overall
ILB Marcus Smith 26th Overall
T Lane Johnson 4th Overall
DT Fletcher Cox 12th Overall
G Danny Watkins 23rd Overall
EDGE Brandon Graham 13th Overall

2010 Packers

OT Bryan Bulaga 23rd Overall
DL BJ Raji 9th Overall
EDGE Clay Matthews 26th Overall
No First
Justin Harrell 16th Overall
ILB AJ Hawk - 5th Overall
QB Aaron Rodgers 24th Overall
DB Ahmad Carroll 25th Overall
ILB - Nick Barnett 29th Overall

2010 Packers Analysis:
The Packers are the only team to win a Super Bowl in the past ten years with a top ten ILB who actually played in the Super Bowl.  We all know that Hawk was just there.  He was not something we could not have won the Super Bowl without.  EDGE and DL made that defense elite.  

 

Foles was a 3rd round pick. What am I missing here?

The Packers had Clay at EDGE along with Zombo. While Clay was a baller, that defense's largest strength was in the secondary with Collins, Woodson, Sheilds ect. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Foles was a 3rd round pick. What am I missing here?

The Packers had Clay at EDGE along with Zombo. While Clay was a baller, that defense's largest strength was in the secondary with Collins, Woodson, Sheilds ect. 

I wrote Foles instead of Wentz on accident and have since corrected it. 

Without Raji and Matthews having been drafted, that defense would not have been elite.  Clay Matthews was dominant that year, and so was Raji.  If we'd drafted Crabtree like some wanted us to instead of Raji that year, we don't win the Super Bowl. 

[Arthur Penske]

Just now, Outpost31 said:

I wrote Foles instead of Wentz on accident and have since corrected it. 

Without Raji and Matthews having been drafted, that defense would not have been elite.  Clay Matthews was dominant that year, and so was Raji.  If we'd drafted Crabtree like some wanted us to instead of Raji that year, we don't win the Super Bowl. 

Obviously Clay was a huge impact. The Raji part is pure conjecture as is this whole premise. Freaking Howard Green(6th round draft pick) had a game changing play with Collins in the superbowl. Tramon Williams played a bigger role in the superbowl/playoff run than Raji too. He was a UDFA.

[Cakeshoppe]

I agree with AG20. I don’t disagree with your conclusions, but I don’t think there’s really enough space in the sample to convince me of anything I hadn’t been convinced of before. 

 

RB value is interesting to me. I think you can be happy spending a 1st round pick and getting a “good” QB or a “good” tackle or CB or EDGE. You really need a first round RB to be special though. The difference that a “good” RB makes vs an average RB to team performance isn’t all that great imo. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Obviously Clay was a huge impact. The Raji part is pure conjecture as is this whole premise. Freaking Howard Green(6th round draft pick) had a game changing play with Collins in the superbowl. Tramon Williams played a bigger role in the superbowl/playoff run than Raji too. He was a UDFA.

We got to the Super Bowl by winning the Championship game by 7 points.  Who scored an unlikely TD in that Championship game? 

[HighCalebR]

I just want to point our Marcus Smith was supposed to be an EDGE. 

[MacReady]

Just now, HighCalebR said:

I just want to point our Marcus Smith was supposed to be an EDGE. 

Was he really? 

[packfanfb]

Most of this is probably true in the larger sense in terms of "premium" positions in the draft versus "non-premium" positions, as long as we don't live in the world of "never" because that is asinine. The Bears don't have a great defense for years and make it to the NFCCG in 2010 without drafting Brian Urlacher 9th overall. That's just one example.

Moreover, teams that haven't made it to the Super Bowl and therefore are not accounted for in your example may have 1,000,000 reason why that did not happen other than the fact that they may have drafted a "non-premium" player in the top-15 in the last 10 years. Is the reason the Bengals haven't went to a SB because they drafted A.J. Green 4th overall in 2011? Probably not. If anything, Green has made the Bengals a better team over that period of time, and whether they instead drafted a "premium position" player like Patrick Peterson (who went one pick later) probably has zero impact at the end of the day on whether the Bengals go to a SB between then and now. It's perfectly fine to draft an ILB, WR and to a lesser extent IOL in the 1st round (even high in the first round) if he's the best player available at that slot for that team on any given year. 

To say otherwise for example would be to say guys like Roquan Smith (last year) and Devin White (this year) shouldn't even be on our board for the No. 12 pick. That's just crazy. They aren't at the very top of your board and you want the EDGE player or perhaps another "premium" position player to be there, but it doesn't always work out that way.