Premium/Non-Premium Positions and Super Bowl Wins Over 10 Years

[squire12]

This team?

Cleveland Browns
Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Position	College
2018	1	1	1	1	Baker Mayfield	QB	Oklahoma
	2	1	4	4	Denzel Ward	DB	Ohio State
2017	1	1	1	1	Myles Garrett	DE	Texas A&M
	2	1	25	25	Jabrill Peppers	DB	Michigan
	3	1	29	29	David Njoku	TE	Miami (FL)
2016	1	1	15	15	Corey Coleman	WR	Baylor
2015	1	1	12	12	Danny Shelton	DT	Washington
	2	1	19	19	Cameron Erving	C	Florida State
2014	1	1	8	8	Justin Gilbert	DB	Oklahoma State
	2	1	22	22	Johnny Manziel	QB	Texas A&M
2013	1	1	6	6	Barkevious Mingo	DE	Louisiana State
2012	1	1	3	3	Trent Richardson	RB	Alabama
	2	1	22	22	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State
2011	1	1	21	21	Phil Taylor	DT	Baylor
2010	1	1	7	7	Joe Haden	DB	Florida
2009	1	1	21	21	Alex Mack	C	California
2007	1	1	3	3	Joe Thomas	T	Wisconsin
	2	1	22	22	Brady Quinn	QB	Notre Dame

[MacReady]

@squire12, what point are you trying to make? 

Cowboys drafted Felix Jones, Bobby Carpenter, Dez Bryant, Jason Williams.  Looks pretty clear to me why Romo wasn't able to win a ring. 

In case you haven't noticed, the Texans have been listening to me and they're in prime position to compete for a ring over the next few years. 

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Set the parameters.  Set the challenge.  What would it take to convince you? 

Let's say:

If no team since the Merger has won a Super Bowl after drafting an IOL top 20 up to 5 years before their Super Bowl win, would you accept that it's not something you should do? 

There have been a LOT of high quality IOL.  Surely if it was okay to use up that kind of draft capital, there'd be an example where it worked.  Wouldn't there? 

 

I just don't agree with the exact correlation you are drawing between the two events or at least the strength of the perceived correlation. Is it a better idea overall to go premium, especially over a longer span of time...sure. I think the evidence suggests some correlation there in contrast to the opposite (finding a team with great success while picking mainly non-premium players). But it stops there for me. 

In layman's terms, I look at what you're saying as more of a "guideline" versus a "policy." 

[squire12]

This team?

Jacksonville Jaguars
Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Position	College
2018	1	1	29	29	Taven Bryan	DT	Florida
2017	1	1	4	4	Leonard Fournette	RB	Louisiana State
2016	1	1	5	5	Jalen Ramsey	DB	Florida State
2015	1	1	3	3	Dante Fowler	LB	Florida
2014	1	1	3	3	Blake Bortles	QB	Central Florida
2013	1	1	2	2	Luke Joeckel	T	Texas A&M
2012	1	1	5	5	Justin Blackmon	WR	Oklahoma State
2011	1	1	10	10	Blaine Gabbert	QB	Missouri
2010	1	1	10	10	Tyson Alualu	DE	California
2009	1	1	8	8	Eugene Monroe	T	Virginia
2008	1	1	8	8	Derrick Harvey	DE	Florida
2007	1	1	21	21	Reggie Nelson	DB	Florida

[MacReady]

And the Browns?  Are you agreeing with me because you're kinda proving my point.  The Browns drafted Coleman, Njoku and Erving over a four year period.  Recently, they've taken a QB, EDGE and CB and they look more promising than they literally ever have. 

[packfanfb]

2 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

The thing with RB is it isn't just about the player. It's about replacability. It's easy to go find competent RBs. It is really hard to find competent players at the premium positions. It's also very easy to pay for RBs. They are cheap. Paying for premium position players is expensive and the draft provides you with cost control.

That's why I singled out Barkley. I think he transcends the "replaceable" argument based on what I saw his rookie year. Fournette was probably a reach, I'd tend to agree there. 

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

Was he really? 

https://www-nbcsports-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/the700level/marcus-smith-got-kind-raw-deal-eagles?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQECAFYAQ%3D%3D#aoh=15464618999334&amp_ct=1546465986793&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcsports.com%2Fphiladelphia%2Fthe700level%2Fmarcus-smith-got-kind-raw-deal-eagles

 

I know he was drafted for getting after the QB.. sounds like he got moved around after he got there.

[MacReady]

Just now, packfanfb said:

In layman's terms, I look at what you're saying as more of a "guideline" versus a "policy." 

Yeah, I've already admitted that teams can get by in certain situations by skirting the guidelines with these non-premium positions later in the first round.  I've already pointed out that WR/ILB/TE can work late. 

IOL hasn't yet, and I don't think it ever will. 

Lots of reasons for that. 

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How about this team?

 

Dallas Cowboys
Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Position	College
2018	1	1	19	19	Leighton Vander Esch	LB	Boise State
2017	1	1	28	28	Taco Charlton	DE	Michigan
2016	1	1	4	4	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
2015	1	1	27	27	Byron Jones	DB	Connecticut
2014	1	1	16	16	Zack Martin	T	Notre Dame
2013	1	1	31	31	Travis Frederick	C	Wisconsin
2012	1	1	6	6	Morris Claiborne	DB	Louisiana State
2011	1	1	9	9	Tyron Smith	T	USC
2010	1	1	24	24	Dez Bryant	WR	Oklahoma State
2008	1	1	22	22	Felix Jones	RB	Arkansas
2007	1	1	26	26	Anthony Spencer	DE	Purdue
2006	1	1	18	18	Bobby Carpenter	LB	Ohio State
2005	1	1	11	11	Demarcus Ware	DE	Troy

 

2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

@squire12, what point are you trying to make? 

Cowboys drafted Felix Jones, Bobby Carpenter, Dez Bryant, Jason Williams.  Looks pretty clear to me why Romo wasn't able to win a ring. 

In case you haven't noticed, the Texans have been listening to me and they're in prime position to compete for a ring over the next few years. 

Felix Jones early 20's

Bobby Carpenter late teens

Dez mid 20's

Jason Williams was a 3rd round pick.  

 

[squire12]

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

And the Browns?  Are you agreeing with me because you're kinda proving my point.  The Browns drafted Coleman, Njoku and Erving over a four year period.  Recently, they've taken a QB, EDGE and CB and they look more promising than they literally ever have. 

They missed on the premium positions.  That is equally as important.  Do not miss on high draft picks.  

[rcon14]

2 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

That's why I singled out Barkley. I think he transcends the "replaceable" argument based on what I saw his rookie year. Fournette was probably a reach, I'd tend to agree there. 

But is his value worth the #2 pick in the draft. It's important to remember his cost. Barkley was the 6th highest paid RB in football this past year. The Giants had to pay him near market rate. They essentially wasted the actual value of the #2 pick which is getting a great player at a well-below-market rate.

[Arthur Penske]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

We got to the Super Bowl by winning the Championship game by 7 points.  Who scored an unlikely TD in that Championship game? 

I’m aware Raji was gifted an INT when dropping into coverage. The still wasn’t lock up at that point though. Who made the game sealing INT??

[Norm]

53 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

I just want to point our Marcus Smith was supposed to be an EDGE. 

Ha, came to post this lol. I. Always get beat to the punch

[vegas492]

13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

@squire12, what point are you trying to make? 

Cowboys drafted Felix Jones, Bobby Carpenter, Dez Bryant, Jason Williams.  Looks pretty clear to me why Romo wasn't able to win a ring. 

In case you haven't noticed, the Texans have been listening to me and they're in prime position to compete for a ring over the next few years. 

They hit on one of your big ones...theories that is.

Quarterback on a rookie contract.  That helps a lot!

Just imagine Chicago with Watson or Mahomes under center right now.....

[squire12]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

What I did is I compiled a list of first round picks from the past ten Super Bowl winning teams.  I looked at their previous eight years of drafts because of longevity of NFL careers and 8 years being plenty of time to judge/reflect on first round picks.  Then I provided my analysis for the drafting of each team leading up to their Super Bowl wins.  

This almost completely confirms what I’ve been saying in here for a very long time.  To remind everyone of what I’ve been saying, here are my points:

*Interior Offensive Linemen in the first round is a stupid idea.  The value just isn’t there.  
*WR should never be taken higher than 24th overall.  
*ILB is not a premium position that should be taken in the first round.  
*EDGE, QB, OT are premium positions.  
*Safety is a wildly underrated position and it DOES have first round value.  

I really had/have no opinion on RB.  I think they CAN be right picks, but also that they can be wrong picks and that you should probably go more premium. 

The facts speak for themselves. 

WR - Late first is acceptable.
TE - Late first is acceptable.
ILB - Late first is SOMETIMES acceptable.
IOL - Never.  Never.  Never ever ever.  Never. 

 

2017 Eagles

EDGE Derek Barnett 14th Overall
QB Carson Wentz 2nd Overall
WR Nelson Agholor 20th Overall
ILB Marcus Smith 26th Overall
T Lane Johnson 4th Overall
DT Fletcher Cox 12th Overall
G Danny Watkins 23rd Overall
EDGE Brandon Graham 13th Overall

2017 Eagles Analysis:  
Flat out, the Eagles do not win the Super Bowl without their premium position draft picks.  Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham combined on a near-game sealing sack, fumble recovery late.  Fletcher Cox was an absolute monster.  Lane Johnson was a starter on a Super Bowl OL.  

As far as non-premium positions, the Eagles flat out busted on Marcus Smith and Danny Watkins.  They were useless bust picks they should not have taken.  Their premium hits bailed them out of their non-premium busts.  Nelson Agholor, 20th overall, was a role player and nothing more.  They could have gotten that production out of a free agent.  

2016 Patriots

No first
DL Malcolm Brown 32nd Overall
DL Dominique Easley Dominique Easley 29th Overall
No first
EDGE Chandler Jones 21st Overall
ILB Dont’a Hightower 25th Overall
T Nate Solder 17th Overall
S - Devin McCourty 27th Overall

2016 Patriots Analysis:
Patriots don’t win this one without going premium.  My argument takes a small hit with Hightower’s huge plays in the Super Bowl, but in my defense, Hightower is an extremely rare ILB that could also be an EDGE on most teams, and his impact actually came in pass rushing.  Patriots don’t win without their DL, EDGE, OT, Safety picks.  

2015 Broncos

EDGE Shane Ray 23rd Overall
DB Bradley Roby 31st Overall
DL Sylvester Williams 28th Overall
No First
EDGE Von Miller 2nd Overall
WR Demaryius Thomas 22nd Overall
QB Tim Tebow 25th Overall
RB - Knowshon Moreno 12th Overall
DL Robert Ayers 18th Overall
OT Ryan Clady 12th Overall

2015 Broncos Analysis:
They don’t win without premium positions.  Shane Ray had a forced fumble in the Super Bowl, they don’t even get to the Super Bowl without Miller.  Roby had three passes defended in Super Bowl, Williams had 2 passes defended in Super Bowl.  The WR they picked was 22nd overall.  

2014 Patriots

DL Dominique Easley 29th Overall
No first
EDGE Chandler Jones 21st Overall
ILB Dont’a Hightower 25th Overall
T Nate Solder 17th Overall
S - Devin McCourty 27th Overall
No First
LB Jerod Mayo 10th overall
DB Brandon Meriweather 24th Overall

2014 Patriots Analysis:
Again, they don’t win without premium positions.  Jerod Mayo played in 6 games and was NOT a part of their playoff run.  

2013 Seahawks

No First
EDGE Bruce Irvin 15th Overall
OT James Carpenter 25th Overall
OT Russel Okung 6th Overall
DB Earl Thomas 14th Overall
LB Aaron Curry 4th Overall
DE Lawrence Jackson 28th Overall
No First
DB Kelly Jennings 31st Overall

2013 Seahawks Analysis:
They don’t win without having taken two starting OT, a Safety, an EDGE.  Their ILB wasn’t even on the team and was a bust.  

2012 Ravens

No First (But Courtney Upshaw at 35th was influential)
Jimmy Smith 27th Overall
No First
OT Michael Oher 23rd Overall
QB Joe Flacco 18th Overall
IOL Ben Grubbs 29th Overall
DL Haloti Ngata 12th Overall
WR Mark Clayton 22nd Overall

2012 Ravens Analysis:  
They don’t win without going premium.  Smith, Oher, Flacco and Ngata were very influential in that Super Bowl win.  The IOL they picked?  Not in the league at time of Super Bowl.  Their WR?  Not in league at time of Super Bowl.  

2011 Giants

DB Prince Amukamara 19th Overall
EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul 15th Overall
WR Hakeem Nicks 29th Overall
DB Kenny Phillips 31st Overall
DB Aaron Ross 20th Overall
EDGE Mathias Kiwanuka 32nd Overall
No First
Philip Rivers (Eli Manning) 4th Overall

2011 Giants Analysis:  
Don’t win without the DBs they selected.  JPP had 16.5 sacks for them that year.  Eli Manning was Eli Manning in the playoffs.  Admittedly, Nicks had a huge impact on that run.  Notice where he was selected?  

2010 Packers

OT Bryan Bulaga 23rd Overall
DL BJ Raji 9th Overall
EDGE Clay Matthews 26th Overall
No First
Justin Harrell 16th Overall
ILB AJ Hawk - 5th Overall
QB Aaron Rodgers 24th Overall
DB Ahmad Carroll 25th Overall
ILB - Nick Barnett 29th Overall

2010 Packers Analysis:
The Packers are the only team to win a Super Bowl in the past ten years with a top ten ILB who actually played in the Super Bowl.  We all know that Hawk was just there.  He was not something we could not have won the Super Bowl without.  EDGE and DL made that defense elite.  

2009 Saints

DB Malcolm Jenkins 14th Overall
DL Sedrick Ellis 7th Overall
WR Robert Meachem 27th Overall
RB Reggie Bush 2nd Overall
OT Jammal Brown 13th Overall
EDGE Will Smith 18th Overall
DL Johnathan Sullivan 6th Overall
WR Donte Stallworth 13th Overall
DL Charles Grant 25th Overall

2009 Saints Analysis:  
Two receivers in the first?  Evidence against my argument?  Nope.  Stallworth was NOT in the league the year the Saints won, and he hadn’t been a Saint for three years.  Meachem had an impact.  He was 27th overall.  Their DL/EDGE had huge seasons for them that year except for Sullivan, who was out of the league.  Smith, Grant and Ellis all had huge roles.  Grant as a third string pass rusher, Smith had over 10 sacks, Ellis had a hell of a season as a nose tackle.  

2008 Steelers

RB Rashard Mendenhall 23rd Overall
ILB Lawrence Timmons 15th Overall
WR Santonio Holmes 25th Overall
TE Heath Miller 30th Overall
QB Ben Roethlisberger 11th Overall
DB Troy Polamalu 16th Overall
IOL Kendall Simmons 30th Overall
DL Casey Hampton 19th Overall

2008 Steelers Analysis:  
That IOL you see?  Again, not even on the team when they won.  Not even in the league.  Holmes had an impact.  AGAIN, 25th overall.  Miller had a big impact.  AGAIN, 30th overall.  The only outlier here is Timmons.  He started two whole games in the regular season.  Didn’t start in any playoff games.  Was a backup.  NOT influential.  

 

 

17 minutes ago, squire12 said:

How about this team?

 

Dallas Cowboys
Year	No.	Round	Pick	Player	Name	Position	College
2018	1	1	19	19	Leighton Vander Esch	LB	Boise State
2017	1	1	28	28	Taco Charlton	DE	Michigan
2016	1	1	4	4	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Ohio State
2015	1	1	27	27	Byron Jones	DB	Connecticut
2014	1	1	16	16	Zack Martin	T	Notre Dame
2013	1	1	31	31	Travis Frederick	C	Wisconsin
2012	1	1	6	6	Morris Claiborne	DB	Louisiana State
2011	1	1	9	9	Tyron Smith	T	USC
2010	1	1	24	24	Dez Bryant	WR	Oklahoma State
2008	1	1	22	22	Felix Jones	RB	Arkansas
2007	1	1	26	26	Anthony Spencer	DE	Purdue
2006	1	1	18	18	Bobby Carpenter	LB	Ohio State
2005	1	1	11	11	Demarcus Ware	DE	Troy

 

13 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

@squire12, what point are you trying to make? 

Cowboys drafted Felix Jones, Bobby Carpenter, Dez Bryant, Jason Williams.  Looks pretty clear to me why Romo wasn't able to win a ring. 

In case you haven't noticed, the Texans have been listening to me and they're in prime position to compete for a ring over the next few years. 

 

8 minutes ago, squire12 said:

 

Felix Jones early 20's

Bobby Carpenter late teens

Dez mid 20's

Jason Williams was a 3rd round pick.  

 

It seems like if a team wins the super bowl, that can justify using a pick on a WR (PHI at #20 or DEN at #22) but if a team does not win a superbowl, then drafting a WR at #24 was a reason they did not win the superbowl?

Same for RB NO picks a RB at #2, but thiey win a title, but other that do not win a title, then it is a reason they did not?