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Premium/Non-Premium Positions and Super Bowl Wins Over 10 Years


MacReady

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Just now, squire12 said:

Are you asking about the 6-10 Falcons from 2014 that finished in 3rd place in the NFC South.  Yes, they do not win the super bowl that year.  Watt has yet to help his team to a conference title game.

Because the Texans haven't had a QB.  They've had BAD quarterbacks. 

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Nobody is suggesting that the Packers should go off the reservation to pick a premium position.  That isn't what's being argued.

It was stated that WR shouldn't be taken before 24 and IOL shouldn't sniff the first round at all.  That's hogwash.

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Nice work @Outpost31, appreciate the analysis. I think im with cheech on this one though. I think hard and fast drafting rules like you shared in the OP are better serves as guidelines based on how your scouts tier their prospects.

I also dont think you can use those rules/guidelines as a predicter for success. Im too lazy to post all of the results here but i looked at the first round draft selections for the past several teams to have picked first overall (the worst teams each year). Their first round selections rarely go against the rules you posted. I think most teams follow them as guidelines and only go against it when there is a clear grade difference between a premium and non premium position.

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12 hours ago, CWood21 said:

A couple of things I'd like to add.  I'd argue that CB is probably in that tier above the on it's currently in in your tiers.  We've seen the impact of guys like Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, etc.  When you can effectively shutdown half the field, it really limits what opposing teams can do offensively and gives an advantage to the defense.

Secondly, I'd argue the value of IOL is actually going up because we're seeing a premium on interior pass rush.  Guys like Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins, etc. are putting a bigger premium on IOL who can hold up in terms of pass protection.  Teams are willing to roll out guys who are less capable in the run game in order to get those pass rushers on the field.

I definitely accept those arguments as valid reasons for moving them up. Honestly, I'd probably put CB at the very top of that tier and also could pretty easily be convinced that IOL should be a tier up. We've noticed this recently with IOL contracts inflating at a higher rate than the rest of the league in the past few years.

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