packfanfb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: I never suggested you can get HoF pass rushers in the top 16 the way you're suggesting I did. We don't need 12th overall to be a pass rusher in order for holding onto it instead of trading it for Von Miller to be a good idea. As I've just shown, there have been 12 Hall of Fame talents between 9th and 15th overall in the past 8 drafts alone. You acting like Hall of Fame talent is only achievable in the top 5 is demonstrably false. Per my post above, some HOF talent outweighs other HOF talent. Outside of a HOF QB, a HOF pass rusher is the biggest game-changer you can add to a roster, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: Per my post above, some HOF talent outweighs other HOF talent. Outside of a HOF QB, a HOF pass rusher is the biggest game-changer you can add to a roster, period. Yes, but a Hall of Fame pass rusher in his final 4 years (unless you really think Von Miller is a Terrell Suggs type, which I don't) is less than a Hall of Fame talent that is 20-22 years old. Why are people failing to see the importance of his age and his cap hit? Do people not understand math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fl0nkerton Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I'd rather try to sign Clowney or Dee Ford or Barr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Outpost31 said: Yes, but a Hall of Fame pass rusher in his final 4 years (unless you really think Von Miller is a Terrell Suggs type, which I don't) is less than a Hall of Fame talent that is 20-22 years old. Why are people failing to see the importance of his age and his cap hit? Do people not understand math? I'm not even advocating for a Miller trade, but you're not accounting for the "bird in hand" either. You KNOW Von Miller is a HOF player and at 29 years old or whatever, he's going to play at a very high level for at least 2-3 more years. What percentage do you give the Packers to get a guy at No. 12 who even sniffs the HOF? 15-20%. That even seems high to me. It's not an easy 1-to-1 comparison of giving up one HOF for 2 years for another HOF for 10 years. We could draft Aaron Donald or Justin Harrell with the No. 12 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Yes, but a Hall of Fame pass rusher in his final 4 years (unless you really think Von Miller is a Terrell Suggs type, which I don't) is less than a Hall of Fame talent that is 20-22 years old. Why are people failing to see the importance of his age and his cap hit? Do people not understand math? Math is for nerds, trades and free agency are for real men. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Norm said: Math is for nerds, trades and free agency are for real men. You know what would have been better than trading for Von Miller? Trading for Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Then next year, trade for Donald. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, packfanfb said: I'm not even advocating for a Miller trade, but you're not accounting for the "bird in hand" either. You KNOW Von Miller is a HOF player and at 29 years old or whatever, he's going to play at a very high level for at least 2-3 more years. What percentage do you give the Packers to get a guy at No. 12 who even sniffs the HOF? 15-20%. That even seems high to me. It's not an easy 1-to-1 comparison of giving up one HOF for 2 years for another HOF for 10 years. We could draft Aaron Donald or Justin Harrell with the No. 12 pick. Yeah, well you probably aren't going to get von Miller's career with that pick. You aren't if you trade for him either. You aren't going to draft Miller, no way, but you MIGHT draft someone who gives you more value the rest of their careers. What the **** von did before we get him is irrelevant to his value after, we're getting too caught up in this Hof stuff. It's far fetched we'll get a Miller level guy with that pick. It's not that unlikely the pick could be better from now on than Miller. I know Outpost kinda started this though saying you find Miller's by hitting on picks though, but I feel like that made us go in the wrong direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, packfanfb said: You know what would have been better than trading for Von Miller? Trading for Khalil Mack and Von Miller. Then next year, trade for Donald. Gute should be fired for not doing this already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: I'm not even advocating for a Miller trade, but you're not accounting for the "bird in hand" either. I'm not denying the bird in the hand with Miller. The bird in the hand with Miller is 3 years, 75 million dollars. The bird in the hand with 12th overall is 4 years, something like 30 million. If you miss on 12th overall, you have 45 million dollars to account for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Norm said: Yeah, well you probably aren't going to get von Miller's career with that pick. You aren't if you trade for him either. You aren't going to draft Miller, no way, but you MIGHT draft someone who gives you more value the rest of their careers. What the **** von did before we get him is irrelevant to his value after, we're getting too caught up in this Hof stuff. It's far fetched we'll get a Miller level guy with that pick. It's not that unlikely the pick couple be better from now on than Miller. I know Outpost kinda started this though saying you find Miller's by hitting on picks though, but I feel like that made us go in the wrong direction None of this would even be necessary had the Bears just let us have Khalil.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, packfanfb said: None of this would even be necessary had the Bears just let us have Khalil.... You're still hung up on Mack? Get over it. The Bears have Mack, Fangio, Jackson, Amos, Fuller, Callahan, Amukamara, Trevathan, Smith, Floyd, Goldman, Hicks. Had we traded for Mack, we'd be out of the playoffs after this week or next, we'd still have McCarthy, 22 million less for this offseason, no first round pick. Mack was not the missing piece for this team. Neither is Von Miller. We've got about 6 missing pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Outpost31 said: We've got about 6 missing pieces. So we need 6 trades dude... Let's get one done so we need only 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jleisher Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Norm said: They can't possibly be trading him can they? Never thought the Raiders would trade Mack either, but I guess it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siman08/OH Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Mahomes - 11th overall. Lattimore - 12th overall. Watson - 13th overall. Gurley - 10th overall. Gordon - 15th overall. Lewan - 11th overall. Beckham - 12th overall. Donald - 13th overall. Richardson - 12th overall. Luke Kuechley - 9th overall. Stephen Gilmore - 10th overall. Dontari Poe - 11th overall. Fletcher Cox - 12th overall. JJ Watt - 11th overall. Tyron Smith - 9th overall. Earl Thomas - 14th overall. Looks much closer to once every two years. Just going back to the 2010 NFL draft, I see 12 Hall of Fame talent players selected between 9th overall and 12th overall. That doesn't mean all 12 of those talents is going to the Hall of Fame, but... I can tell you right now that if it's a choice between paying Von Miller 24 million a year at 30, 31, 32 and 33 years of age or getting a player like Thomas, Smith, Watt, Cox, Poe, Gilmore, Kuechley, Richardson, Donald, Beckham, Lewan, Gordon, Gurley, Watson, Lattimore, Mahomes for 5 years on a rookie contract... I know which option I'm going with. If you can trade a 12th overall pick for a 2nd overall pick, yes, you absolutely do it. If you can trade a 12th overall pick for a former 2nd overall pick who is now 30 years old with an impending cap hit higher than your quarterback's and cap hits overall of 25 million, 25 million and 22 million, you don't do that. I usually think your a complaining bag of wind...but your spot on here. Please Gute, dont trade for Von Miller with that contract, it’s not worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jleisher Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 If true and possible without robbing our draft picks, I would trade for Miller before Brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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