Redt Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'd make the argument that your OL is only as strong as your weakest link. I would assume that Anthony Castanzo is their weakest OL. Going back to 2000, the IOL taken in the top 20 of the first round have included Quenton Nelson, Frank Ragnow, Ryan Kelly, Cameron Irving, Zack Martin, Jonathan Cooper, Chance Warmack, Kyle Long, Mike Pouncey, Mike Iupati, Maurkice Pouncey, Shawn Andrews, and Steve Hutchinson. You've got some really good players, some major busts, and players in between the two. But let's look who was drafted within 5 picks of those OL. Casey Hampton (Steve Hutchinson), Vince Wilfork (Shawn Andrews), Demaryius Thomas (Maurkice Pouncey/Mike Iupati), and Xavier Rhodes (Zack Martin). The whole concept is flawed because you're operating under the assumption that the IOL you're drafting is 100% success rate, when the reality is it's probably closer to 50% than it is 100%. The success rate really isn't that much lower for another position that you're going to pass on that position in favor of an OL. I think the real point that is trying to be made (at least it is for me) is the actual player, not necessarily the position. Some say that ILB is not worthy of a top ten pick, but I would argue that R. Lewis was, A.J. Hawk not so much. It is pretty obvious that certain positions have more overall value than others all things being equal, however any positional player can be transformative to an overall unit or have greater value in the long term. Additionally, when considering draft picks that have yet to play an NFL down, we are all just expressing our value of a specific prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Outpost31 said: I told you only respond if I'm right. And I've seen LVE go off the field tonight a few times already. Not lying either because I've been watching him. Sorry man. Just need to add facts to the discussion. Your debates will be better served with facts, you of all posters know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Sure that's easy. But ILB lives matter too. Yes...but in terms of impact in a game, they're usually only as good as the guys in front of them. Whose this stud ILB in this year's draft? Devin White is probably the "best" one, but are you taking him over Nick Bosa? Hell no. Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? Absolutely not. Clelin Ferrell? More than likely not? You're moving further and further away from an ILB being our first pick. The board would have to be pretty damn rough to find an ILB to be overwhelmingly better value than what else is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, CWood21 said: Yes...but in terms of impact in a game, they're usually only as good as the guys in front of them. Whose this stud ILB in this year's draft? Devin White is probably the "best" one, but are you taking him over Nick Bosa? Hell no. Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? Absolutely not. Clelin Ferrell? More than likely not? You're moving further and further away from an ILB being our first pick. The board would have to be pretty damn rough to find an ILB to be overwhelmingly better value than what else is available. I mean we need to start with the front 4. We need an impact EDGE/DL at 12 and hopefully a guy in FA as well if available. But the last time a Green Bay defense was even close to having two solid ILBs on the same defense was 2010 with Hawk and Bishop and neither was a special player. I just watched the last series by Dallas and both Smith and LVE were on field for 2nd and 17 and 3rd and 17. LVE made the tackle on the 3rd down hitch. Having those types of athletes at ILB greatly impacts your defense. We can at least try to improve that area of our D while also working on the other positions. All I'm saying is invest one draft pick on day 1 (late) or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Redt said: I think the real point that is trying to be made (at least it is for me) is the actual player, not necessarily the position. Some say that ILB is not worthy of a top ten pick, but I would argue that R. Lewis was, A.J. Hawk not so much. It is pretty obvious that certain positions have more overall value than others all things being equal, however any positional player can be transformative to an overall unit or have greater value in the long term. Additionally, when considering draft picks that have yet to play an NFL down, we are all just expressing our value of a specific prospect. I think I understand the position. The flaw in the argument that packfanfb is trying to make is that you're operating under the assumption that you're getting a stud ILB in the first round, which isn't really valid. The floors of LBs drafted in the first round are usually amongst the highest, but we're seeing a LOT of high floor, low ceiling players taken there. They usually aren't big impact players. LBs (according to Arrowhead Pride) have a 70% success rate in the first round, 55% success rate in the 2nd round, and 34% success rate in the 3rd round. Compare that to say DL (58% in the first, 26% in the second, and 27% in the 3rd round) or DB (64% in the first, 46% in the second, and 24% in the third). I'll take the chances that my 3rd round pick is more likely to be a hit than I will a DB. LIS, the problem with packfanfb's argument is that you're operating under the assumption that the ILB you draft will be an impact ILB, and the other side isn't a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, packfanfb said: I mean we need to start with the front 4. We need an impact EDGE/DL at 12 and hopefully a guy in FA as well if available. But the last time a Green Bay defense was even close to having two solid ILBs on the same defense was 2010 with Hawk and Bishop and neither was a special player. I just watched the last series by Dallas and both Smith and LVE were on field for 2nd and 17 and 3rd and 17. LVE made the tackle on the 3rd down hitch. Having those types of athletes at ILB greatly impacts your defense. We can at least try to improve that area of our D while also working on the other positions. All I'm saying is invest one draft pick on day 1 (late) or 2. LVE and Smith are impact players. I dont care their draft value, their positional value, their hypothetical value, their conceptual value - or whatever. They both make impact plays on the field that affect game outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Seattle’s offense is an atrocity to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, packfanfb said: I mean we need to start with the front 4. We need an impact EDGE/DL at 12 and hopefully a guy in FA as well if available. But the last time a Green Bay defense was even close to having two solid ILBs on the same defense was 2010 with Hawk and Bishop and neither was a special player. I just watched the last series by Dallas and both Smith and LVE were on field for 2nd and 17 and 3rd and 17. LVE made the tackle on the 3rd down hitch. Having those types of athletes at ILB greatly impacts your defense. We can at least try to improve that area of our D while also working on the other positions. All I'm saying is invest one draft pick on day 1 (late) or 2. That's even more proof that off-ball LBs really aren't going to make an impact. What made our 2010 defense work? Our corners are what made it work. Clay Matthews and Nick Collins certainly helped, but you could plug any decent LBs in there and we're still an impactful defense. You take Charles Woodson out of that lineup, and replace him with a league average corner, and our defense uffers drastically. And I think you're underestimating how good of an athlete LVE is. He was in the top 20% percentile in all the agility tests amongst LBs. He was an incredible athlete. Those players don't grow on trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Wilson man....i hate him for 2014 but the guy is resilient af and drops dimes in big moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, packfanfb said: Wilson man....i hate him for 2014 but the guy is resilient af and drops dimes in big moments. He throws like 15 times a game now, always ridiculous throws in high pressure situations. How is this a playoff team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Lodestar said: He throws like 15 times a game now, always ridiculous throws in high pressure situations. How is this a playoff team. They play solid defense, that's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 The Dallas D might have gotten winded on that drive. Be interesting to see how they hold up next SEA possession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FinneasGage Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 28 minutes ago, CWood21 said: You and @JBURGE stopped posting, that's what. we're washed & no new blood stepped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, FinneasGage said: we're washed & no new blood stepped up Tell @JBURGE to dust off his walker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Outpost31 said: First, you're an idiot. Second, quit quoting me because I'd literally take the opinion of literally anyone other than you. Third, it's a matter of odds. You have two chances in this scenario. That puts the percentage of at least tying it at around 70% with two 40% chances. https://www.quora.com/What-are-your-chances-if-you-have-a-33-chance-twice Second, if you were twice as smart as you think you are you'd still only be half as smart as me. Also, if there is a 70% chance of making 1 out of 2, I don't believe it's that high, you're still at a lower percentage then the odds of making 2 extra points. The odds clearly are not in your favor which is why so few coaches do this. You think you're the smartest guy here, but your just a dumb ***! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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