Is RB deeper than ever?

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like going into the draft last year I felt like I had to get a RB in 1 of the 1st 2 rounds or else I was toast and now we have(in order of finish in standard leagues):

Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Gordon, Mixon, D.Johnson, Lindsay, White, Carson, Chubb and there are plenty more that struggled but you would buy them in round 3-4

Throw in a couple of rookies and then guys like Tevin Coleman and Leveon Bell will be on new teams next year

Thoughts? How does such a large pool of RBs change your strategy in the draft? Do you take a QB/TE earlier?

 

[SimsZilla]

I was never a TE early guy until this year and I took Ertz in round 5, and i will try my hardest to get one of them again. It's worth it imo, with the state of the TE in fantasy right now. Weekly advantage. 

[Forge]

It does not change my strategy. Running backs early and often. At worst, they become trade fodder as running backs in my big money leagues are absolute gold that people overpay for. Secondarily, we can expect a few of those guys to struggle or regress. 

[naptownskinsfan]

1 hour ago, SimsZilla said:

I was never a TE early guy until this year and I took Ertz in round 5, and i will try my hardest to get one of them again. It's worth it imo, with the state of the TE in fantasy right now. Weekly advantage. 

Tight-ends are like catchers in fantasy MLB.  If you can get one of the best, you have a leg up on your competition who neglected the position and ends up trotting out his third waiver TE acquisition.  I've had Kelce or Ertz the past three years in my main league, and I'm looking at Ertz as one of my four keepers, along with three running backs.  

Now, to the point of the OP, I do believe RB is becoming a deeper position.  I believe this is because there is a renewed focus on the featured running back who can play all three downs.  For much of the first half of this decade, NFL teams were not spending high draft choices on running backs because of "value" and instead used multiple mid-late round picks and did "running back by committee approach" and you barely had half of the NFL teams with what could be considered a "featured back."  

Well, you are now seeing the return of the featured back.  Elliott, Gurley, Barkley and Fournette have been drafted in the top 10 recently, and all have had great fantasy seasons at some point- Fournette fell off this year.  McCaffrey, Gordon, David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Connor, Kamera, and Kareem Hunt (when playing for KC) all got huge shares of their teams touches, much more than in years past.  LeVeon Bell, who didn't play this year, is also in the featured back role.  

And this is always subject to change, as trends in sports always do.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 1/6/2019 at 7:23 PM, Forge said:

It does not change my strategy. Running backs early and often. At worst, they become trade fodder as running backs in my big money leagues are absolute gold that people overpay for. Secondarily, we can expect a few of those guys to struggle or regress. 

While I agree, I still think going into 2019 looks far more promising than 2017 and 2018

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 1/6/2019 at 6:40 PM, SimsZilla said:

I was never a TE early guy until this year and I took Ertz in round 5, and i will try my hardest to get one of them again. It's worth it imo, with the state of the TE in fantasy right now. Weekly advantage. 

Agreed. I came out of my money leagues with Kelce in the mid to late round 3 because I didn't want to take some average RB or meh WR and couldn't have been happier. The price will definitely increase though so it'll be interesting to see how people alter their boards. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

I think def next year it gets a bit easier at draft RB. With guys like Mack, Michel, Cook, Lindsay, Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman, Henry and etc. 

I felt that this past year if you didn't have atleast Two trust worthy RBs by round 3 then you were SOL. 

[Cheesehawk]

On 1/6/2019 at 6:40 PM, SimsZilla said:

I was never a TE early guy until this year and I took Ertz in round 5, and i will try my hardest to get one of them again. It's worth it imo, with the state of the TE in fantasy right now. Weekly advantage. 

Imagine how I felt when I gambled and took George Kittle in all my drafts round 13. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

13 hours ago, Cheesehawk said:

Imagine how I felt when I gambled and took George Kittle in all my drafts round 13. 

As a niner fan, I did the "oh can't have too many niners on my team" so i passed on him more than once....sheeshhhhhh. 

[bomont]

Yes as I said elsewhere IMO depth is the key this year. I won't be buying high on Barkley, I'll let people spend crazy money on those few top guys and spread the wealth on several 2d, 3d tier guys, hopefully one will break out (or repeat) like Lindsey etc.

[EaglesPeteC]

Only real strategy change for me is being willing to spend a 2nd or 3rd on Kelce or Ertz. I’m still loading up on RB’s when I can

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 1/24/2019 at 7:05 PM, Cheesehawk said:

Imagine how I felt when I gambled and took George Kittle in all my drafts round 13. 

Does anyone gamble in round 13? That pick is someone you could drop week 2 and not think twice about it

[MightyMouse07]

Here are guys I'm comfortable drafting that are past the first two rounds on a 12 team PPR league. ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football ADP Calculator.

 

 Fournette - Dude is a machine and gets the touches. No one that is really going to take that away from him on the Jags. His obvious issue is injury risk but if you grab Armstead later in the draft then you will be fine. He at worst gives you RB2 numbers week in and week out. (#25)

A. Jones - He is going to be the guy in GB this year. He produced like an RB1 last year for a big stretch. Another guy with injury concerns but thats such a potent offense. (#34)

J. Jacobs - touches. He is going to get a lot of touches. (#35)

K. Johnson - If they cut Riddick then I'd be shocked if KJ doesn't get damn near 60 catches this year. I know they got CJA but Kerryon is going to be getting the bulk of the touches in this backfield. Oh and they want to run the ball too. (#36)

D. Montgomery - Another rookie like Jacobs who I expect to get a lot of touches. He won't get the catches that Jacobs will but he is going to be getting a lot of goaline touches. Howard was PPR RB 20 last year. I can see Montgomery replicating that this year. (#40)

Drake - He only finished as the RB14 in PPR last year. This guy is a steal in drafts. Ballage went down on first contact on a crazy amount of plays last year (~85%). Drake did not. (#50)

C. Carson - Another team that wants to run the ball. The recent knee scope can be scary but this team loves Carson. They showed it last year. Penny will see an increase in touches but that is fine because most of those will be Mike Davis' touches that are vacated. (#54)

J. White - consistently underrated RB. He is the only real outlet guy for Brady. Harris is competing with Michel. Burkhead will be there a little but I don't see him taking away White's targets. White will give you some RB2 numbers at the worst. (#55)

T. Coleman - Think about it this way, Shanahan and company could have kept McKinnon and Brieda if they were happy with the production they got. But they weren't. So he went out and got a guy he loved in ATL. Coleman will be that back that gets the redzone touches for this team and I think he gets the most carries. (#71)

L. Miller - Mr. RB2 himself. He is going to get touches. I'm not banking on Foreman coming back from an achillies and dominating or playing well. Miller will get his 15-18 touches a game. (#75)

Penny - We've already discussed Seattle with Carson but Penny is going to get some touches and has good RB2/Flex appeal in my mind. He might even take over that starting spot. (#78)

L. Murray - The Saints are a team that runs the ball inside the 5 a lot. Murray is a guy who can play well especially when he gets the running lanes for it. The Saints are one of the better run blocking teams in the league. Murray is going to get at least 10-12 touches a game. They won't overload Kamara and wear him down. Kamara will still get his but he isn't going to be getting 30 touches a game. Murray will be a real good RB2/Flex guy this year. (#85)

 

Notables that I left off:

Mack - Not a fan of him. I think that you'll see he won't be getting as many catches and that most of his big carry games came when they were out in front by a lot. I don't see that continuing this year. Still a solid RB. Just don't like him in the 3rd round. 

D. Freeman - Finally got the backfield really to himself but Dirk K. was his old OC when Freeman looked like crap. No RBs have looked good when he has been in charge of an offense. Not in ATL or TB. 

D. Henry - I just am not a fan of the guy. He is good for best ball because of big game potential but I don't see him finishing in the top 30 RBs.

P. Lindsay - Not sure how his recovery is going to affect his chances. Freeman is looking really good in camp and Freeman was actually better last year running the ball. He broke more tackles and got more yards after contact. So I could see Freeman taking some carries away from Lindsay. 

 

 

 

 

[NcFinest9erFan]

On 6/18/2019 at 5:57 PM, MightyMouse07 said:

Here are guys I'm comfortable drafting that are past the first two rounds on a 12 team PPR league. ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football ADP Calculator.

 

 Fournette - Dude is a machine and gets the touches. No one that is really going to take that away from him on the Jags. His obvious issue is injury risk but if you grab Armstead later in the draft then you will be fine. He at worst gives you RB2 numbers week in and week out. (#25)

A. Jones - He is going to be the guy in GB this year. He produced like an RB1 last year for a big stretch. Another guy with injury concerns but thats such a potent offense. (#34)

J. Jacobs - touches. He is going to get a lot of touches. (#35)

K. Johnson - If they cut Riddick then I'd be shocked if KJ doesn't get damn near 60 catches this year. I know they got CJA but Kerryon is going to be getting the bulk of the touches in this backfield. Oh and they want to run the ball too. (#36)

D. Montgomery - Another rookie like Jacobs who I expect to get a lot of touches. He won't get the catches that Jacobs will but he is going to be getting a lot of goaline touches. Howard was PPR RB 20 last year. I can see Montgomery replicating that this year. (#40)

Drake - He only finished as the RB14 in PPR last year. This guy is a steal in drafts. Ballage went down on first contact on a crazy amount of plays last year (~85%). Drake did not. (#50)

C. Carson - Another team that wants to run the ball. The recent knee scope can be scary but this team loves Carson. They showed it last year. Penny will see an increase in touches but that is fine because most of those will be Mike Davis' touches that are vacated. (#54)

J. White - consistently underrated RB. He is the only real outlet guy for Brady. Harris is competing with Michel. Burkhead will be there a little but I don't see him taking away White's targets. White will give you some RB2 numbers at the worst. (#55)

T. Coleman - Think about it this way, Shanahan and company could have kept McKinnon and Brieda if they were happy with the production they got. But they weren't. So he went out and got a guy he loved in ATL. Coleman will be that back that gets the redzone touches for this team and I think he gets the most carries. (#71)

L. Miller - Mr. RB2 himself. He is going to get touches. I'm not banking on Foreman coming back from an achillies and dominating or playing well. Miller will get his 15-18 touches a game. (#75)

Penny - We've already discussed Seattle with Carson but Penny is going to get some touches and has good RB2/Flex appeal in my mind. He might even take over that starting spot. (#78)

L. Murray - The Saints are a team that runs the ball inside the 5 a lot. Murray is a guy who can play well especially when he gets the running lanes for it. The Saints are one of the better run blocking teams in the league. Murray is going to get at least 10-12 touches a game. They won't overload Kamara and wear him down. Kamara will still get his but he isn't going to be getting 30 touches a game. Murray will be a real good RB2/Flex guy this year. (#85)

 

-If I do go the WR/WR route, I'd love to get Fournette as my RB1 then just stash any of the guys bolded. I also love Mark Ingram this year as well. Overall, the pool of RB this year looks better than last year. 

 

Notables that I left off:

Mack - Not a fan of him. I think that you'll see he won't be getting as many catches and that most of his big carry games came when they were out in front by a lot. I don't see that continuing this year. Still a solid RB. Just don't like him in the 3rd round.  - I like Mack but don't love him because he's strictly at 2 down back although he should be the goal line back. If you do take him, you'll take the good weeks and the bad ones. 

D. Freeman - Finally got the backfield really to himself but Dirk K. was his old OC when Freeman looked like crap. No RBs have looked good when he has been in charge of an offense. Not in ATL or TB.  - This is why sadly I'm 50/50 on Freeman. Its his backfield now and he'll come cheap but ooof Dirk K and the run game outside of the Mike Turner years have been bad.

D. Henry - I just am not a fan of the guy. He is good for best ball because of big game potential but I don't see him finishing in the top 30 RBs.

P. Lindsay - Not sure how his recovery is going to affect his chances. Freeman is looking really good in camp and Freeman was actually better last year running the ball. He broke more tackles and got more yards after contact. So I could see Freeman taking some carries away from Lindsay. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by NcFinest9erFan