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Draft Crush and One Free Agent


OnWisconsin-JRS

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2 hours ago, Golfman said:

:o

Would he be the first guy who did something like this while in the NFL and the new rules to get back into league? 

 

Just being honest here, the video did not look all that bad to me. I like Aaron Jones but he is no Kareem Hunt.

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More people gotta get more realistic on free agents.  We aren't landing one of the elite defensive prospects.  Mathieu ain't going anywhere, Thomas is going to the Cowboys, we won't sign a person like Clark and Clowney will accept 2 million more to play in Miami where no income tax and the weather and Florida over Wisconsin will keep him out of Green Bay. 

What people forget about free agency is that free agents are free to sign where they want.  We overpaid for Graham to get him.  Now imagine how much we'd have to overpay to get a player in his prime rather than past his prime.

It's why I'm looking at the sleeper free agents who aren't generating a lot of attention, but will pay big dividends. 

 

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10 hours ago, Bang! said:

 I don't mind investing multiple 1st Rounders to ensure that we invest in a blue chip talent like Bosa, Oliver, or Josh Allen. There are other names that will be called on day one and two but the drop off in the third and fourth means two of our first four picks could be on a pass rusher. The likelihood of using multiple early picks on EDGE defenders seems to be a very good approach especially when we are seeing what the top of the 2019 FA class is looking at commanding based on the previous years $15mil+.. or we invest multiple draft picks into a 'sure thing' and start seeing how the pieces come together when you are getting to the QB.

 

 

I don't think Oliver is a sure thing at all.   He is 6'1" and about 275 lbs.   What happens when you invest multiple 1st round picks in a guy who busts?   What happens when you invest multiple high picks in a player who gets old before the team is ready to win a SB?

I get your point about getting known talent.  People complaining about us not getting Mack forget the dearth of talent throughout our defense.  His impact would be more like it was with the raiders than it looks like with the Bears.

I'm not sure it was a good idea for the Bears either.  It did great things for their defense, but what about their offense?  Trubiski doesn't look like a SB QB to me.

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What happens when we invest multiple 1st round picks and trade for an elite talent/ a generational talent that is widely considered a can't miss talent.. and THAT guy that I'm describing busts?

Nothing is a for sure thing but I like my chances and if after weighing pro/cons and vetting every step of the process along the way, I cant imagine there would be a lot of regrets. We have tried the conservative route with our top picks and I'm ok with risking the safety of drafting Kevin King because these safe picks havent helped our team at all... in fact, passing on the safe pick for an even safer pick because that pick is a CB and the years leading up to the Kevin King pick hadnt produced a return on the early selections used to address the secondary.. so we had to address the need... again... at the same position.

What happens when a calculated risk is taken on trading multiple 1st Rounders for a generational talent where a relatively low risk could provide a lift to your team that could be.. dare I say a 'galvanizing move' by the front office that will influence the direction this team takes for the next 10 years.

Is it worth risking the Damarious Randalls, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perrys, Derrick Sherrods, Justin Harrells, Jamal Reynolds...

Read those names again and ask how can we justify not subjecting ourselves to our annual  kick to pants we seem to reserve for ourselves every April? One could argue that not investing in trading two or three first round draft picks for Nick Bosa, a player that is considered by just about everyone as the best talent in this draft, is a detriment to this team and will almost ensure that we will have to tear down and rebuild this team by getting a top 5 pick organically.

DATONE... DAMARIOUS... now that I see the evidence on paper, no argument can be made that supports anything less than a calculated plan of attack to obtain a pick between pick  #2 and #5 with the express reasoning of moving into that position is to draft an elite prospect on the defensive side of the football who is considered an elite prospect when it comes to rushing the passer. Bosa, Oliver, or Josh Allen 

 

 

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Adderly is definitely my draft crush. Maybe I’m just in the echo chamber here but I do love the idea of another defensive back that plays with an attitude fully backed up by performance.

Any FA I would name is either too pricey (tho Gute seems like a guy who will spend a bit more than we’ve seen in the past) or so little in demand that it’s hardly worth speculating upon. I do think that a key FA early would help create a draft strategy. I am rooting for a quality edge or a safety in FA to push the need to use draft capital on those positions past our first pick. 

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1 hour ago, Bang! said:

What happens when a calculated risk is taken on trading multiple 1st Rounders for a generational talent where a relatively low risk could provide a lift to your team that could be.. dare I say a 'galvanizing move' by the front office that will influence the direction this team takes for the next 10 years.

Is it worth risking the Damarious Randalls, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perrys, Derrick Sherrods, Justin Harrells, Jamal Reynolds...

Along with your selection of disappointments, you would also be losing the Kenny Clarks and Jaire Alexanders of the world.

The 49ers have been significantly more of the risk-taker mentality than the Packers, lets look at some of their choices. They gambled on DT Arik Armstead (body beautiful vs average college production) with pick 17 in 2015, who has been disappointing since he was taken. they gambled with RB Lattimore (ACL etc, knee injury) that he could recover......he didn't. they gambled on character with both DE Aldon Smith (pick 7, 2011) and LB Reuben Foster (pick 31 2017) - neither lasted long on their team. Even when they went fairly safe (DE Solomon Thomas, 3rd overall pick in 2017), they found he couldn't pass rush as a DE and tends to be used as a DT. The point is that a generational player could come from a safe pick, just as they could be a risky roll of the dice.

Players like Bakhtiatri (pick 109) and Davante Adams (pick 53) indicate there are terrific players outside the top few picks. Heck, look at the long-time partnership of Clifton and Tauscher (late 2nd and 7th rounders). All picks are inherently risky because any player, no matter how 'bomb-proof' can get badly injured. A case making that point is the 1994 Packers round one draft pick Notre Dame OG Aaron Taylor (he looked as bomb-proof as anyone, his career ruined by injury).

It's all about players, not draft position, which is very easy to say, while being unbelievably difficult trying to achieve success finding them. Great player evaluation helps, but there is still a huge slice of luck involved. It would be interesting to see if a risk-taking philosophy would benefit a team over time. I don't think it does, but trying to accumulate enough data to be significant, while trying to avoid perception-bias, is just too hard (for me).

My own take on this is to play fairly safe, most of the time, but also to take an occasional gamble on greatness when you have strong feelings on a player. The Packers essentially did that when they drafted Clay Matthews, they gambled on the rise in his production over just the last half of his final college season, and they gave up several picks to do it. You could call that a moderate risk (depending on how you calculate that) that paid off very nicely.

Packaging picks together to move up is a risky business, supposing you did that and got the next Solomon Thomas ? That has to be a part of your calculation. GMs recognise the risk, and many, even most of them, would shoot for two picks over one higher one. There are exceptions of course, but the very name 'exceptions' describes them perfectly.

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44 minutes ago, Bang! said:

Is it worth risking the Damarious Randalls, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perrys, Derrick Sherrods, Justin Harrells, Jamal Reynolds...

Read those names again and ask how can we justify not subjecting ourselves to our annual  kick to pants we seem to reserve for ourselves every April? One could argue that not investing in trading two or three first round draft picks for Nick Bosa, a player that is considered by just about everyone as the best talent in this draft, is a detriment to this team and will almost ensure that we will have to tear down and rebuild this team by getting a top 5 pick organically.

DATONE... DAMARIOUS... now that I see the evidence on paper, no argument can be made that supports anything less than a calculated plan of attack to obtain a pick between pick  #2 and #5 with the express reasoning of moving into that position is to draft an elite prospect on the defensive side of the football who is considered an elite prospect when it comes to rushing the passer. Bosa, Oliver, or Josh Allen 

 

 

Pointing out busts doesn't change the fact that the most effective way to build a team is through effective drafting of low cost players.  There is no question that drafting is not an exact science.  Do I need to make a list of "sure thing" high picks that busted out to counter your list?

Tony Mandarich, Justin Gilbert, Barkevious Mingo, RG III, Aaron Curry, Trent Richardson, Jason Smith, Jamarcus Russell.  Boy reading that list could lead one to conclude that a team should always trade down to get more picks.  

I believe my point is made.  I wouldn't take Oliver with our 12th pick if the defense stays the same.   Where do you play Oliver in our defense?   Spend multiple picks for a 1-2 down layer at best?

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