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Draft Crush and One Free Agent


OnWisconsin-JRS

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Josh Allen, I realize he's likely gone by pick 12, but stranger things have happened. 

David Irving, shouldn't cost too much. The question is where is he in his personal life because he could be the way of Josh Gordon. He's a beast as a pass rusher though. 

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18 hours ago, OnWisconsin-JRS said:

Draft crush: Nasir Adderley S Delaware

Free Agent: Frank Clark 

Frank Clark is such a terrible person.  A Greg Hardy caliber of person..... the domestic violence that got him booted from Michigan was heinous.

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43 minutes ago, SSG said:

Frank Clark is such a terrible person.  A Greg Hardy caliber of person..... the domestic violence that got him booted from Michigan was heinous.

I didn’t even know then yeah I don’t want him.... I might go Grady Jarrett and shaq Barrett together all pash rush 

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4 hours ago, hitnhope said:

I don't think Oliver is a sure thing at all.   He is 6'1" and about 275 lbs.   What happens when you invest multiple 1st round picks in a guy who busts?   What happens when you invest multiple high picks in a player who gets old before the team is ready to win a SB?

I get your point about getting known talent.  People complaining about us not getting Mack forget the dearth of talent throughout our defense.  His impact would be more like it was with the raiders than it looks like with the Bears.

I'm not sure it was a good idea for the Bears either.  It did great things for their defense, but what about their offense?  Trubiski doesn't look like a SB QB to me.

I’ve seen Oliver listed multipl places at 6’3” 290#.  I guess we’ll see at the combine. 

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3 hours ago, Bang! said:

What happens when we invest multiple 1st round picks and trade for an elite talent/ a generational talent that is widely considered a can't miss talent.. and THAT guy that I'm describing busts?

Nothing is a for sure thing but I like my chances and if after weighing pro/cons and vetting every step of the process along the way, I cant imagine there would be a lot of regrets. We have tried the conservative route with our top picks and I'm ok with risking the safety of drafting Kevin King because these safe picks havent helped our team at all... in fact, passing on the safe pick for an even safer pick because that pick is a CB and the years leading up to the Kevin King pick hadnt produced a return on the early selections used to address the secondary.. so we had to address the need... again... at the same position.

What happens when a calculated risk is taken on trading multiple 1st Rounders for a generational talent where a relatively low risk could provide a lift to your team that could be.. dare I say a 'galvanizing move' by the front office that will influence the direction this team takes for the next 10 years.

Is it worth risking the Damarious Randalls, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perrys, Derrick Sherrods, Justin Harrells, Jamal Reynolds...

Read those names again and ask how can we justify not subjecting ourselves to our annual  kick to pants we seem to reserve for ourselves every April? One could argue that not investing in trading two or three first round draft picks for Nick Bosa, a player that is considered by just about everyone as the best talent in this draft, is a detriment to this team and will almost ensure that we will have to tear down and rebuild this team by getting a top 5 pick organically.

DATONE... DAMARIOUS... now that I see the evidence on paper, no argument can be made that supports anything less than a calculated plan of attack to obtain a pick between pick  #2 and #5 with the express reasoning of moving into that position is to draft an elite prospect on the defensive side of the football who is considered an elite prospect when it comes to rushing the passer. Bosa, Oliver, or Josh Allen 

 

 

I don't mind this argument but I'll disagree for a few reasons.  

1 - Jair Alexander and Kenny Clark.  

2 - most of those first round picks you listed were at the end of the first where most talent evaluators typically cut off players rated with clear cut first round grades at the 15th and sometimes 18th selection.  The rest of the guys selected at the end of the first are typically all graded very similarly to guys taken late in the 2nd.  

With the 12th pick and likely 2 or even 3 QB's to be taken before us, the chances of landing a player with a true first round grade are very high.  

3 - The current roster has too many holes.  Should we actually hit on the first 3 to 4 picks, and the get one or two more role players in the 2nd half of the draft as we did with MVS and EQ, the Packers super bowl window will be open for another 4 to 5 years.

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Yeah, I would be very weary of Oliver, his listed weight is no where close to his actual playing weight this year, #271. He will bulk up for the combine, but he doesn't have the frame to carry that as an effective playing weight. So a true tweener, where would he play in out current defense? Too much risk for me even at #12, #32 sure.

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1 minute ago, Redt said:

Yeah, I would be very weary of Oliver, his listed weight is no where close to his actual playing weight this year, #271. He will bulk up for the combine, but he doesn't have the frame to carry that as an effective playing weight. So a true tweener, where would he play in out current defense? Too much risk for me even at #12, #32 sure.

Put him inside on passing downs like the Eagles do Brandon Graham. Might be a tough fit for us on first down for sure. If those numbers are correct. Agree with AlexGreen#20, have to wait on him until the combine.

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27 minutes ago, Cheech said:

I don't mind this argument but I'll disagree for a few reasons.  

1 - Jair Alexander and Kenny Clark.  

2 - most of those first round picks you listed were at the end of the first where most talent evaluators typically cut off players rated with clear cut first round grades at the 15th and sometimes 18th selection.  The rest of the guys selected at the end of the first are typically all graded very similarly to guys taken late in the 2nd.  

With the 12th pick and likely 2 or even 3 QB's to be taken before us, the chances of landing a player with a true first round grade are very high.  

3 - The current roster has too many holes.  Should we actually hit on the first 3 to 4 picks, and the get one or two more role players in the 2nd half of the draft as we did with MVS and EQ, the Packers super bowl window will be open for another 4 to 5 years.

#1. I am not going to feel bad about loving our Jaire Alexander pick in last years draft. Jamal Reynolds was drafted EIGHTEEN years ago... we have two first round picks in the last 18 years that we are not ashamed of... I will gamble with a couple of those if it means a better than average shot at a ProBowl Edge Rusher.

#2. Lets not defend how truly terrible some of these-- MOST of these picks have been by saying our 1st Rounders grade out more like 2nd Rounders.. Ok then, lets trade a couple of those 2nd round grades for a bonafide first round talent.

#3. I agree that we are in a pretty bad situation when it comes to WANT v NEED with this team. I am surprised just how wrong we all were when assessing the depth of the team and judging the ceilings of a lot of these guys.

I was very happy with last years draft, especially 1st/2nd Jaire/Josh... I remember when they announced the pick thinking that Ted never would have touched this guy because of the difference in size of what amounts to a finger nail.. Each pick was someone I had researched and wasnt 'cute' or 'smartest guy in the room' but the picks made sense and the guys werent drafted to play a different position, etc

Correct me if Im wrong (I'm not...) EQ had a late 1st/2nd round grade for most of the time leading up to the draft

I am actually a fan of the process and trusting our scouts and grading measurables. I'm not a Packer fan that looks for greener pastures or can't respect how good our team has been over the last 25 years. But I was not a blind 'White Wizard' apologist and there were a few moves that he should have been made to answer for.

Just to put the bookend on where I was coming from, I am for utilizing the value of future 1st Round Draft Picks to move us up in the 1st to get one of the premiere EDGE rushers. I just didn't realize how much I want to see our GM do this because seeing how historically bad our track record is I think we should probably be open to ideas that are different from the previous leadership and don't have 20 years of evidence that support trading every future 1st round pick because the value these picks have are at their highest when they have the potential to be shipped somewhere else.

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A bit of a tangent, but not intended to be...  where would Marcus Davenport rank in this year's edge class?

Bosa, Allen, Ferrell I think would be clearly ahead.

Polite, Burns, Sweat, and Zach Allen would probably be the 2nd wave of pass rushers.  You could make an argument for some of those guys, if not all to be ahead of Davenport depending on scheme.  

One or two of those edge rushers are going to fall to the bottom of the first.

In this year's draft, I just wouldn't do it.  That 2nd first round pick could be a 2nd above average starter at a position of need, and it could finally solidify our front 7.

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5 hours ago, Bang! said:

What happens when we invest multiple 1st round picks and trade for an elite talent/ a generational talent that is widely considered a can't miss talent.. and THAT guy that I'm describing busts?

Nothing is a for sure thing but I like my chances and if after weighing pro/cons and vetting every step of the process along the way, I cant imagine there would be a lot of regrets. We have tried the conservative route with our top picks and I'm ok with risking the safety of drafting Kevin King because these safe picks havent helped our team at all... in fact, passing on the safe pick for an even safer pick because that pick is a CB and the years leading up to the Kevin King pick hadnt produced a return on the early selections used to address the secondary.. so we had to address the need... again... at the same position.

What happens when a calculated risk is taken on trading multiple 1st Rounders for a generational talent where a relatively low risk could provide a lift to your team that could be.. dare I say a 'galvanizing move' by the front office that will influence the direction this team takes for the next 10 years.

Is it worth risking the Damarious Randalls, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perrys, Derrick Sherrods, Justin Harrells, Jamal Reynolds...

Read those names again and ask how can we justify not subjecting ourselves to our annual  kick to pants we seem to reserve for ourselves every April? One could argue that not investing in trading two or three first round draft picks for Nick Bosa, a player that is considered by just about everyone as the best talent in this draft, is a detriment to this team and will almost ensure that we will have to tear down and rebuild this team by getting a top 5 pick organically.

DATONE... DAMARIOUS... now that I see the evidence on paper, no argument can be made that supports anything less than a calculated plan of attack to obtain a pick between pick  #2 and #5 with the express reasoning of moving into that position is to draft an elite prospect on the defensive side of the football who is considered an elite prospect when it comes to rushing the passer. Bosa, Oliver, or Josh Allen.

Although, I'm not totally sure what your argument is here, I'll try and make a retort.  I'm generally of the belief that it's not worth trading up in the first round.  In terms of value, you're giving up more than it's worth.  The value needs to be exceptional, much like it was last year when we traded up with the Seahawks OR we're looking at an overwhelmingly good prospect.  I think the only player I'd consider in that tier would be Nick Bosa.  And that's coming from someone whose very high on Josh Allen.  You just don't trade up in the first round.  It's bad value.

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 Draft: no real "crush" yet but Rashan Gary clicks with me. He has that really inciting athleticism yet looks like a better fit than Oliver.

FA: any Safety with a pulse. I have a hard time seeing us land Joyner, Thomas, or Mathieu, but Tre Boston and Mike Mitchell are both guys I would pursue (and not mutually exclusively, since I see them as FS and SS respectively). Also, the draft's Safety class kinda blows.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Although, I'm not totally sure what your argument is here, I'll try and make a retort.  I'm generally of the belief that it's not worth trading up in the first round.  In terms of value, you're giving up more than it's worth.  The value needs to be exceptional, much like it was last year when we traded up with the Seahawks OR we're looking at an overwhelmingly good prospect.  I think the only player I'd consider in that tier would be Nick Bosa.  And that's coming from someone whose very high on Josh Allen.  You just don't trade up in the first round.  It's bad value.

I am making the argument that I believe that this is the year to make that move and that I believe Bosa is the prospect. (Allen and Oliver are included in this as well)

I understand the football philosophy that you are referencing and I agree that this isnt the typical model for draft day trades; however, Bosa is a player on that level where this works. I believe that the opportunity should be pursued if its there. 

I also took the opportunity to argue that the Packers conservative attitude towards draft day trades and the involvement in FA should be reevaluated as the list of GB Round 1 picks that have been busts is  shocking.

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21 minutes ago, Bang! said:

I am making the argument that I believe that this is the year to make that move and that I believe Bosa is the prospect. (Allen and Oliver are included in this as well)

I understand the football philosophy that you are referencing and I agree that this isnt the typical model for draft day trades; however, Bosa is a player on that level where this works. I believe that the opportunity should be pursued if its there. 

I also took the opportunity to argue that the Packers conservative attitude towards draft day trades and the involvement in FA should be reevaluated as the list of GB Round 1 picks that have been busts is  shocking.

Are we really in a range to move up to get Bosa?  Using the traditional trade value chart, our two FRPs would get us in that 4-6 range.  Adding our second might get us up to as high as 3.  According to the "new" trade value chart, our two FRPs get us to 3ish.  The question then becomes, what team is willing to trade down with Nick Bosa on board?  Arizona probably will take him, and even if they're open to trading down they're probably not willing to move down that far they're jumping into a tier or two below.  San Francisco has a HUGE need at pass rusher, so there's little chance they'd pass on him.  And the Jets would probably be willing to take him as well given the value there.  I just don't see any scenario in which the Packers can realistically acquire Bosa.

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Agree that Bosa is the one player worth considering this type of move up.   I don't think we can get there and have it make sense for us.   I wouldn't give up both first this year plus another next year.   We cant afford to give up our 1st 3 picks this year either, and even that doesn't get us to pick 1.

We are a team that has a lot of needs.  This is an important draft in that we need to hit on several of these picks to get us back on track.  We need to stop the practice of chasing positional needs and get back to picking BPA. 

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