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BucsDraftGeek47

The Jameis Experience

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If Arians is the choice, they re not going to draft a QB until Day 3 if at all.  He isn t coming to groom a rookie, no chance.

^ this quote by ravishingone got me thinking

 

I've never been a Jameis fan, like REDandPEWTER i was a Mariota fan

When Jameis has been good, I've rooted for him because it affected my team in a positive light

When Jameis has been bad, I've criticized him heavily, maybe sometimes more than i should have , i can admit it 

My biggest problem with Jameis ever since he came out is his accuracy, which i believe is something you cannot fix in QBs, and then later his turnovers

WIth all the goods and the bads of Winston, i can objectively say that he is a starting caliber QB in the NFL

fluctuating somewhere in the range of 12-20 ranked among other QBs

Jameis Highs are so high and his lows are pretty damn low, but it evens out

 

now for the record if it were up to me i think i would still try to trade him and see if i could get a high pick, i honestly do not think that Winston is a QB who can win it all and thats why i want to move on

but its not up to me and i can live with him for at least one more year (with the hope that he figures it out because he is still so young) i saw a stat that compared Winston to Peyton Manning because they have identical stats at this point in their careers, let us just hope that Winston can turn into what Manning did , afterall i can say that he DOES have that potential with his talent , his weaknesses are in his mental side of the game

 

thoughts?

 

 

 

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Apparently his weaknesses are his defense.

There are eight QBs in the league who have been more efficient overall than Jameis has in the last nine years. There are seven (of 52, I think I counted) who have a worse win percentage. 😂

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That is unreal. ^ 

If anything it proves how good Jameis can be, or would be viewed currently, with simply a better defense and no improvement in how he is currently playing. I mean this literally is one of a kind. No other QB is this much of an outlier due to their defense. Rediculous. Well thank goodness for Todd Bowles.

Edited by Lil' Shorty

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Serious question @BucsDraftGeek47       I know you say you preferred mariota  at the time of the draft but now that everything has unfolded would you prefer him now??  

and I do agree its all mental for Winston and we will find out how he can do in a different system/coaching.  

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This is why stats are incredibly misleading.  A LOT of his yards/touchdowns are in garbage time, with the defense playing deep cover 2. 

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18 minutes ago, sryan66611 said:

Serious question @BucsDraftGeek47       I know you say you preferred mariota  at the time of the draft but now that everything has unfolded would you prefer him now??  

and I do agree its all mental for Winston and we will find out how he can do in a different system/coaching.  

after all that has unfolded.... i think i say i'd rather have Winston

i mean all in all he's produced way more, and hes been less injury prone

i think both are in the same boat, its impossible to say how much Mariota has been wasted in the systems hes been in, but i do think is a good margin (again it can never be proven)

but at least with Winston i know that he can be a superstar if he stops losing the darn ball, as where with Mariota is still relatively unknown what he can do, hes been mediocre for the majority of his career so far, theres no telling  whether or not he does have that superstar potential other than some big games that all QBs tend to have every once in a while

 

1 hour ago, Lil' Shorty said:

Well thank goodness for Todd Bowles.

you can say that again!

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18 minutes ago, Caaddy24 said:

This is why stats are incredibly misleading.  A LOT of his yards/touchdowns are in garbage time, with the defense playing deep cover 2. 

As has happened in baseball, people have realized that boxscore stats miss a lot of the story. Throwing a 15-yard completion on third-and-20 from your own 20-yard line is worth a lot less than a 7-yard pass on third-and-six from midfield, even though the former looks better in the boxscore. Expected Points Added – EPA - tries to solve this dilemma. Using historical data, you estimate what the average next score will be - that’s a team’s “expected points”. Compare expected points before and after a play and the difference is EPA.

EPA is like the exact opposite of what you're claiming it to be.

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21 hours ago, bucsfan333 said:

As has happened in baseball, people have realized that boxscore stats miss a lot of the story. Throwing a 15-yard completion on third-and-20 from your own 20-yard line is worth a lot less than a 7-yard pass on third-and-six from midfield, even though the former looks better in the boxscore. Expected Points Added – EPA - tries to solve this dilemma. Using historical data, you estimate what the average next score will be - that’s a team’s “expected points”. Compare expected points before and after a play and the difference is EPA.

EPA is like the exact opposite of what you're claiming it to be.

Oh no, yeah for sure, the expected points and average next score, I forgot about that. That's a good point. 

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You gotta take into account Jameis' age too when evaluating him. Remember, he's literally just turned 25...

He's just coming into that age where players start to take that next step in their career...

I think we're going to see a better version of Jameis under BA...

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On 1/11/2019 at 9:30 PM, bucsfan333 said:

As has happened in baseball, people have realized that boxscore stats miss a lot of the story. Throwing a 15-yard completion on third-and-20 from your own 20-yard line is worth a lot less than a 7-yard pass on third-and-six from midfield, even though the former looks better in the boxscore. Expected Points Added – EPA - tries to solve this dilemma. Using historical data, you estimate what the average next score will be - that’s a team’s “expected points”. Compare expected points before and after a play and the difference is EPA.

EPA is like the exact opposite of what you're claiming it to be.

right i agree, however in the instance of comparing Jameis to Mariota, we can say that Mariota most likely had just as many chances of putting up garbage time stats and he didnt ( or at least not on same level as Jameis)

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The point of EPA is that it doesn't care about stats. It only factors in plays that give your team the best chance to score points; getting at least four yards on first down, getting at least half the yards needed on second down, and converting third/fourth downs.

Like that snippet I quoted said, a 15 yard completion on third and 20 doesn't cut it. Converting a medium third down does. But 1/1 for 15 yards looks better than 1/1 for seven.

It also factors in turnovers, I believe. So despite Jameis being first or second in turnovers since he came into the league, he's still top 10 in terms of QBs that give their teams the best chance to score points.

Give him a defense that doesn't give up like 25 ppg (over his short career) and we have a chance to make the playoffs every year, despite his turnovers. If he can eliminate a lot of his stupid turnovers, we have a chance to do something once we make the playoffs.

 

This is all from 2015. But...

Tom Brady is the only QB with a winning record all time when his defense gives up 21 points (60-46). Joe Montana was .500, which is second best. Peyton Manning was 65-83. Favre 54-95. Marino 35-82. Brees 42-79. You get the point.

The win percentage for EVERYONE 25%.

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That s really good work by you on this thread giving facts 👍

Edited by ravishingone

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2 hours ago, ravishingone said:

That s really good work by you on this thread giving facts 👍

I'd rather argue and debate facts than try to argue opinions/feelings/whatever else. Makes more sense.

And don't try the "eye test" bs. 😂

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5 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

I'd rather argue and debate facts than try to argue opinions/feelings/whatever else. Makes more sense.

And don't try the "eye test" bs. 😂

Jameis is very polarizing and it can be hard to be objective.  We debate about how bad the oline really is and don t put much stock into how that group effects QB play.  

I m glad they brought him back under a new coaching staff.  It can still go bad this season, but even with an average defense I don t think it will.

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12 minutes ago, ravishingone said:

Jameis is very polarizing and it can be hard to be objective.  We debate about how bad the oline really is and don t put much stock into how that group effects QB play.  

I m glad they brought him back under a new coaching staff.  It can still go bad this season, but even with an average defense I don t think it will.

This is it. He either becomes what he can be or he continues to turn the ball over far too much and gets replaced.

We could have won more games while he tried to figure it out but this defense has been abysmal.

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