Jump to content

Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 17 - TACO BOWL XVII POSTED!)


Recommended Posts

30 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Was I unfair in my assessments?

Tried to be as objective as possible - your record outpaces your actual performance, similar to mine

I will be the first person to tell you my team does not deserve the playoffs. That’s why I benched Goff and Rankins, traded away a bunch of players, and am continuing to start someone who has 4 carries and 3 fumbles. And in its current state, my team would never sniff the playoffs if it had to produce for a full season. I’d even argue that with Kelce starting at FB, I probably have less than the 5% chance you gave me. 

However, the idea that being -11 in point differential making it the ugliest 6-4 team of all time is a bit off. At 249 points and 260 points allowed, it would project to 4.254 wins in a *normal* system. While that’s lucky, sitting 1.746 wins above a projection, that’s a completely normal normal range for a team to be in and I would bet there’s been a number of teams that had records that painted them as contenders that had more luck at this stage.

I only updated two teams this season just to check, and the other one has 2.538 more wins than their differential projects.

Looking through the data I have, there’s 9 win teams with -33, -25, -23, -18, -12 point differentials. Sitting 6-4 with a -11 doesn’t feel like an abnormality.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, pwny said:

I will be the first person to tell you my team does not deserve the playoffs. That’s why I benched Goff and Rankins, traded away a bunch of players, and am continuing to start someone who has 4 carries and 3 fumbles. And in its current state, my team would never sniff the playoffs if it had to produce for a full season. I’d even argue that with Kelce starting at FB, I probably have less than the 5% chance you gave me. 

However, the idea that being -11 in point differential making it the worst 6-4 team of all time is a bit off. At 249 points and 260 points allowed, it would project to 4.254 wins in a *normal* system. While that’s lucky, sitting 1.746 wins above a projection, that’s a completely normal normal range for a team to be in and I would bet there’s been a number of teams that had records that painted them as contenders that had more luck at this stage.

I only updated two teams this season just to check, and the other one has 2.538 more wins than their differential projects.

Looking through the data I have, there’s 9 win teams with -33, -25, -23, -18, -12 point differentials. Sitting 6-4 with a -11 doesn’t feel like an abnormality.

Perhaps I was too hyperbolic

Just when looking at the data it was surprising that a 6-4 team and a 3-7 team had the same differential.. maybe that biased my opinion a little

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the playoff race red hot, how will a week entirely full of juicy inter-conference matchups harm or help each team's chances?

Miami Sharks @ Southview Saints: https://youtu.be/iE1H4lcnqkE
Indianapolis Predators @ Richmond Flying Squirrels: https://youtu.be/2dZ3k141pug
Phoenix Rattlers @ Scranton Papermakers: https://youtu.be/xK6R3gNrdbw
Little Rock Uni Royals @ South Africa Woolly Mammoths: https://youtu.be/OhVTfF9RlqU
Reykjavík Direwolves @ Hanoi Viet Kongs: https://youtu.be/LQAIT9hafFY
Tacoma Thunder @ Chicago Fire: https://youtu.be/2QourLwfSuk
Breckenridge Cannibals @ Kansas City Knights: https://youtu.be/czHd93pcoZ4
Egypt Starfalls @ Freiburg Venom: https://youtu.be/giQlzJkybWU
Seattle Sonics @ Rio de Janeiro Pirates: https://youtu.be/FP5O46Gajuw
Iowa Jagwads @ Rocket City Trash Pandas: https://youtu.be/dVk_-M89RkU

GameDocs: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1J8uDmFtJEV3pTN3TYeKTkNZ-m7GfQixV?usp=sharing
Updated stats: https://thekillernacho.blogspot.com/2019/02/nsfl-season-17-detailed-statistics.html

Also...

The International Games have been decided upon by the league office. Firstly, the Toyko international game host was decided to be the Phoenix Rattlers this year, which will replace their Week 13 home game versus Richmond. The Japanese fans are said to be furious about receiving such an insulting matchup between two bottom feeders. The London game will be "hosted" by the South Africa Woolly Mammoths as they face Reykjavík. Woolly Mammoths fans are furious as the two straight home division games to end the year were considered a boon to their playoff chances, and the Direwolves currently lead the division. Nevertheless, South Africa will have to find a way to find success in a hostile London crowd in Week 15 (Due to distance, it is probable more Reykjavík fans will be in the audience, and the team has a greater London following due to its back to back championship years).

Via a new league rule, neither Phoenix nor South Africa will be eligible to sign up for international games during the Season 18 NSFL season. They are each awarded 1 extra Season 18 keeper tag.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Also...

The International Games have been decided upon by the league office. Firstly, the Toyko international game host was decided to be the Phoenix Rattlers this year, which will replace their Week 13 home game versus Richmond. The Japanese fans are said to be furious about receiving such an insulting matchup between two bottom feeders. The London game will be "hosted" by the South Africa Woolly Mammoths as they face Reykjavík. Woolly Mammoths fans are furious as the two straight home division games to end the year were considered a boon to their playoff chances, and the Direwolves currently lead the division. Nevertheless, South Africa will have to find a way to find success in a hostile London crowd in Week 15 (Due to distance, it is probable more Reykjavík fans will be in the audience, and the team has a greater London following due to its back to back championship years).

Via a new league rule, neither Phoenix nor South Africa will be eligible to sign up for international games during the Season 18 NSFL season. They are each awarded 1 extra Season 18 keeper tag.

What, were the Trash Pandas not available or something?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

What, were the Trash Pandas not available or something?

Wow catching that crossfire haha

gg @Adrenaline_Flux I really can't buy a win....lol I keep getting close and my team just melts. 4th down down by one score late in the 4th and down by less than 1 TD and I punt. C'mon man....

I win that game if I don't let up an 85 yard punt return and a pick 6

Edited by EaglesPeteC
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Did I see this correctly? Both the Knights and the Squirrels pulled out the W?

#parity

I'm just playing man...

Good news is, with the Knights getting a win you are lining up for #1 overall in a rookie draft!

Bad news is, there is no surefire skill position stud like Saquon this year that people will overpay for. With the exception of me taking Luck way back when, early QB picks generally go much later in the draft due to how long it takes them to be great players in NSFL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tk3 said:

Cheesy Conference playoff race:

Red Division

  1. Reykjavík Direwolves (7-3)
  2. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (6-4)
  3. Hanoi Viet Kongs (6-4)
  4. South Africa Woolly Mammoths (6-4)
  5. Seattle Sonics (4-6)

Blue Division

  1. Tacoma Thunder (8-2)
  2. Chicago Fire (6-4)
  3. Breckenridge Cannibals (5-5)
  4. Little Rock Uni Royals (4-6)
  5. Kansas City Knights (1-9)

 

Right now it looks like there are 5 strong contenders, with 2 longer odds teams still in the hunt. All fighting for just 4 spots. Here is my handicap to the field. The overall theme is how much the Red team still plays each other, which really opens the door.

  1. Tacoma Thunder (8-2). >99%. This is the obvious choice. A 2 game lead in the division, the best point differential in the league by a healthy margin, and still has games against the Pandas, Knights, and Royals. This is as near of a lock as there is. They DO have 2 games remaining against the Fire, which could potentially cost them the division if the Fire get hot and win their remaining 6, but it is hard to envision a world where the Thunder do not get 12+ wins.
  2. Hanoi Viet Kongs (6-4). 75%. This is a surprising team to me, as I don't see them as the best (or even a top 2 or 3 team) in the division. Their offense is nowhere near the other teams on this list, but they have made it this far on their defense. And now they have the easiest remaining schedule of the big 4 Red Division teams. They have 2 difficult games left on their roster (Direwolves and Mammoths), but they also have several games that they should win, namely the Knights, Rattlers, and Royals. If they can't take care of business against those bottom teams, they probably don't make the playoffs. If the win the ones they need to win, I think this team has the upside to win the division on their easy schedule alone.
  3. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (6-4). 70%. The Pirates have maintained a balanced performance this season, spending the year in the top 3-5 in scoring offense, and top 10 in scoring defense, despite playing a difficult schedule thus far. Their reward is a favorable schedule to finish the season. While they do play the Direwolves and Mammoths back to back on the road, their other 4 remaining games are all to teams with negative point differentials. If they can split those two road games, they should have an easy route to 10 wins, and with all of the inter-division play in the red division, 10 wins should be enough to sneak into a wildcard slot.
  4. South Africa Woolly Mammoths (6-4) 70%. Don't let the fact that they are listed 4th in the division fool you. This team has Tom Brady and a top 5 scoring defense, and is probably the 2nd best team in the entire league. It boasts the 2nd best point differential in the league, and while they have lost 3 close games in the past 4, I don't see that poor luck continuing. Weeks 11 and 12 will be vital for them, as they finish the season with games against the Pirates, Papermakers, Direwolves, and Kongs.
  5. Reykjavík Direwolves (7-3). 60%. The record gives the Direwolves a head start in the final stretch on the strength of their offensive outputs, but this team probably has the most difficult schedule to finish the season. Road games against the Mammoths and Kongs, as well as home games against the Pirates and Jagwads. Their two "easier" games are against median level teams. Worse, the Direwolves are going to be pretty low on the tiebreaker rankings. If their offense can steal one or two more of those difficult games, their playoff chances skyrocket, but a couple division losses will allow the other contenders to leapfrog them in the standings very quickly.
  6. Breckenridge Cannibals (5-5.) 20%. This team is the wildcard. The epitome of consistently average, an RNG streak can get them into the playoffs. They have games remaining against the Thunder, Direwolves, and Fire, so a couple choice wins can really help them leapfrog teams ahead of them. Their other games consist of teams like the Venom, Pandas, and Knights, which should be 3 easy wins. This team can easily wind up 10-6 if they can pull an upset and be the surprise team of the year.
  7. Chicago Fire (6-4). 5%. This has to be the ugliest 6-4 team of all time, with a negative point differential. However, with all of the contenders giving each other losses to end the season, it could allow a 10-6 Fire team to sneak into the #4 seed. The big problem is, they still have both games against the Thunder and a game against the Pirates on their schedule. Still, if they manage to win one of those (namely the Pirates), they might be able to inch their way up the list.
  8. Seattle Sonics (4-6). <1%.
  9. Little Rock Uni Royals (4-6). <1%.
  10. Kansas City Knights (1-9). 0%

Well... this didn't age as well as I hoped. I didn't realize games would be 24 hours early so it didn't even get a chance to be discussed by more than 1 person...

Here goes a week 11 update..

  1. Tacoma Thunder (9-2). >99%. Now a 3 game lead in the division and essentially locked as the division winner. They sport the best point differential in the league by a healthy margin, and still have games against the Pandas, Knights, and Royals. It is hard to envision a world where the Thunder do not get 12+ wins.
  2. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (7-4). 85%. The Pirates have maintained a balanced performance this season, spending the year in the top 3-5 in scoring offense, and top 10 in scoring defense, despite playing a difficult schedule thus far. Their reward is a favorable schedule to finish the season. While they do play the Direwolves and Mammoths back to back on the road, their other 3 remaining games are all to teams with negative point differentials. If they can split those two road games, they should have an easy route to 10 or 11 wins, and with all of the inter-division play in the red division, 10 wins should be enough to sneak into a wildcard slot.
  3. Reykjavík Direwolves (8-3). 80%. The record gives the Direwolves a head start in the final stretch on the strength of their offensive outputs, but this team probably has the most difficult schedule to finish the season. They've managed to go 2-1 against the Mammoths/Papermakers/Kongs in the past 3 weeks, but the difficulty continues with games against the Mammoths, Pirates, and Jagwads. If they can manage to win one or two of those previously mentioned games, they should be good to go.
  4. South Africa Woolly Mammoths (7-4) 75%. My choice as the best team in the Red division, even though they are not at the top of this ranking. This team has Tom Brady and a top 5 scoring defense, and is probably the 2nd best team in the entire league. It boasts one of the best point differential in the league, and have just rebounded from a string of close losses. They do have a very difficult schedule ahead of them though, as they finish the season with games against the Pirates, Papermakers, Direwolves, and Kongs.
  5. Hanoi Viet Kongs (6-5). 60%. Losing to the Direwolves this week REALLY hurts their chances, as that was one of the teams they needed to leapfrog. Their offense is nowhere near the other teams on this list, but they have made it this far on their defense. The good news is that they have the easiest remaining schedule of the big 4 Red Division teams. They only have 1 more difficult game left on their roster (Mammoths), but they also have several games that they should easily win, namely the Knights, Rattlers, and Royals. Still, if they win the games they should win, I expect them to finish with 10 wins, which may be enough.
  6. Chicago Fire (6-5). 1%. From a record standpoint, they are just 1 game out of this, however they still are sitting with a game against the Thunder and another against the Pirates. At MINIMUM they need to win 1 of those to have a fighting chance, and likely both. The good news is, the red division still plays each other a ton, and we could easily see more than one of those times wind up at 10-6 or even 9-7, which still leaves an opening for the Fire to make a run.
  7. Breckenridge Cannibals (5-6.) <1%. Welp, so much for my darkhorse. A loss against the lowly Knights probably seals their fate. Making the playoffs required them to sweep their easy teams, and split their two tough games. Now, their only chance is to win out, which includes games against the Thunder and Direwolves. Still alive, but likely eliminated next week unless they can pull off an upset vs Tacoma.
  8. Seattle Sonics (4-7). <1%.
  9. Little Rock Uni Royals (4-7). <1%.
  10. Kansas City Knights (2-9). 0%
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anyone looking to make a title run, these players can be had for dirt cheap:

Patrick DiMarco [11 GS]: 5 carries for 21 yards (4.20 YPC, 9 LNG), 0 touchdowns. 5 receptions for 44 yards (8.80 YPR, 22 LNG), 0 touchdowns. 12 pancakes.

B.J. Hill [4 GS]: 11 tackles (2 stuffs), 3 sacks.

Myles Jack [9 GS]: 49 tackles (7 stuffs), 3 coverages, 3 sacks.

Bruce Irvin [11 GS]: 61 tackles (4 stuffs), 6 coverages, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovery.

Ryan Succop [11 GS]: 26 of 29 (89.66%, 53 LNG) field goals. 15 of 15 extra points. 24 touchbacks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, swoosh said:

For anyone looking to make a title run, these players can be had for dirt cheap:

Patrick DiMarco [11 GS]: 5 carries for 21 yards (4.20 YPC, 9 LNG), 0 touchdowns. 5 receptions for 44 yards (8.80 YPR, 22 LNG), 0 touchdowns. 12 pancakes.

B.J. Hill [4 GS]: 11 tackles (2 stuffs), 3 sacks.

Myles Jack [9 GS]: 49 tackles (7 stuffs), 3 coverages, 3 sacks.

Bruce Irvin [11 GS]: 61 tackles (4 stuffs), 6 coverages, 4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovery.

Ryan Succop [11 GS]: 26 of 29 (89.66%, 53 LNG) field goals. 15 of 15 extra points. 24 touchbacks.

Bosa tho?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@pwny, how is @khodder tracking on the list of most prolific teams of all time?

It's odd because the roster doesn't look like it is anywhere near the best he has put out there in the past, but can't argue with the results. Plus he has a cupcake schedule to finish the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

@pwny, how is @khodder tracking on the list of most prolific teams of all time?

It's odd because the roster doesn't look like it is anywhere near the best he has put out there in the past, but can't argue with the results. Plus he has a cupcake schedule to finish the season.

I’ll try to get everything updated later today. The gf’s dad is coming in town today, so I’m a bit preoccupied right now, but I’ll try to get them done when I get ~15 minutes of downtime. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...