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soflbillsfan

Early Mock... cause why not

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Buffalo Bills currently at $83 million, not sure if it is before or after the 7-8 mil in roll over:
Hire Sean Kugler to be oline coach..after weeks of Denver looking for their HC they finally bring in Munchak and he hires his own guys which leaves Kugler for the taking and thats what the bills do.
Hire Darren Rizzi, after he loses out on the Dolphins HC job he asks for his release and is granted as new coaching staff doesn't want to bump heads, Bills scoop him up
David Culley moves to WR position where he use to shine at
Hire John Defillipo as QB Coach

I am not going to add the guys they already retained. (Barkley, Anderson etc.)

Retain:
Lorenzo Alexander 2 years $7 mil ($4 Guaranteed)
Jordan Phillips 1 year $5 mil (prove it deal)
Eddie Yarborough (ERFA)
Lafayette Pitts (RFA) bring him back to give him another shot in camp worth keeping for 90 player roster and go from there
$13-15 mil will be the cost to retain these guys, but a cap hit of $10 mil ( Lorenzo guarantees of $3 of 4 mil and Jordan's $5 mil  plus the low caps for the other 2 $1 mil each based on guess)

Cut: For those who weren't retained and that are in FA they do not bother to bring them back
Charles Clay TE $9 million salary, cutting him clears $4.5 mil
Russel Bodine C $2.8 million salary, cutting him clears $2.3 mil
Vlad Ducasse G $2.083 mil salary, cutting him clears $2.0 mil
Trent Murphy DE $8.481 mil salary, cutting him clears just shy of $5 mil. With his injuries and Shaq improving he is expendable at this point.
After the cuts they clear $14.8 mil, after the retainers and cap this puts the bills around $88 mil (again not sure if this includes the roll over or not)

FA Additions:
Matt Paradis C Broncos 5 years $50 mil ($24.5 mil in guaranteed) based on the top 5 contracts the base hit will be about $9 mil for 2019
Rodger Saffold LG Rams 5 years $60 mil ($29 mil in guarantees) based on his age and the contracts around him this will be about $13.5 Mil for 2019 
Brett Jones RG/C Vikings 3 years $23 mil ($10 mil in guarantees) with the bills clearing house on the oline this give Brett Jones an opportunity to solidify himself at the RG position and back up Center to Paradis. 
Donovan Smith OT Buccaneers 5 years 35 mil ($20 in guarantees) based on the average RT contract this is in line with $5 mil for 2019 
Golden Tate WR Philly 4 years $32.5 Mil ($21 mil in Guarantees) Will be a $9 mil cap hit in 2019
Jared Cook TE Oakland 3 years $20 mil ($12 mil in Guarantees) will be a $7 mil cap hit in 2019
2019 $51 Mil on offense additions leaving at least another $37 mil for other spots ($30 mil left in Free agency and $7 mil on Draft)

One last big get for the bills to help Jerry Hughes is landing Demarcus Lawrence ( this one is a stretch but is still possible if Dallas does not Franchise Tag him) 6 years $100 mil ($52 in Guarantees) putting a whopping $18 mil in cap hit. He may be getting 100 mil if he fills out the entire 6 years but this is more likely a 4 year $70 mil deal leaving the last 2 years of $30 mil in cap space.

Again the last one is a huge stretch and I am all for the other ones being realistic as every team is either in rebuild or not enough cap in order to pay them this year. I just wanted to add Lawrence on there to think that the front 4 can be Hughes, Phillips, Star, and Lawrence is scary.

Draft may be off a pick number or 2:
1st rd pick 9 Greedy Williams CB LSU
2nd rd pick 42  (Trade to Indy pick 36) Dk Metcalf WR Ole Miss (Bills give up pick 42, 134, and 7th rd)
3rd rd pick 73 Garret Bradbury C/G NC State
4th rd pick 109 Wyatt Ray OLB BC
4th rd pick (KC) 134 Traded to Indy
5th rd pick (Oak) 141 Dexter Williams RB Notre Dame
5th rd pick 146 Nyquan Murray WR FSU
6th rd pick 183 BPA
2 7th rd picks (1 traded to Indy) BPA

 

I think the 2019 season is part of the rebuild process, they cleared the space in 201-2018, landed their franchise qb, along with a young defense nucleus. 2019 continues that process by solidifying the oline, grabbing 3 weapons to add to Zay and Foster (cook, Metcalf, and tate), continuing to grow the defense by adding a stud CB in Greedy giving the back 5 (Tre, Greedy Taron, Hyde, and Poyer), as well as adding depth in areas of need. Not to mention that the Bills still have $12 mil in space (with or without rollover money) to add more small pieces to the team. 2020 they will have $68 mil in cap space but that doesnt include the additions they landed this year so it is probably closer to $20-30 mil. Before people blast me I want to again reiterate Lawrence is the biggest reach of this entire puzzle and I know it is unlikely but this is my Mock offseason and I think he would add to this top tier defense already. If he isnt on there then they will have $30+ mil in cap space to add other pieces.

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You're dreaming if you think we're landing the top 3 offensive line free agents. A lot of teams will be making big time offers to those guys. I would be surprised if Donovan Smith hits the market too based on what I've heard from Buccs fans. 

Then you added in Lawrence too? ... c'mon man haha, I know you said it's a stretch but it's definitely a stretch when you factor in everyone else you signed. You're just trying to have some fun with it, I get it.  

As far as the draft. I'm cool with Greedy given how FA went. Metcalf won't last until the second round. Should be the first or second WR off the board. The rest is solid, I personally wouldn't move up. A lot of depth at WR, can still grab a solid player at our pick. 

All in all you should probably rename this 'Dream Offseason Plan' ;) 

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It may be a dream offseason but landing those olineman isnt out of the realm, Tampa has 8 mil in cap space enough to pay their Draft players so even with cuts to bring him back will be tough as they already have over 25 mil invested in olineman in 2019 but anything is possible. Other back up options would be Daryl Williams or Ju'wan James, I just went with him as he is flexible with both RT and LT more then those 2 but I would be happy with them, as I wouldnt mind seeing dawkins go back to RT if Donovan makes his way to Buffalo or they can interchange if need be. Dolphins have 20 mil in cap space, ton of holes and no coach as of yet so Juwan may slip especially with his issue of staying healthy. Carolina is another team who is hurting for cap so I expect Daryl Williams to hit the open market because of his injury and they have plenty of holes to fill. I was basing Paradis off of the bills landing Kugler but that may change since he went to the bucs. I still think he will be bills #1 target in free agency as beane said to be aggressive in FA this year and that oline is their biggest need. Denver has 35 mil in cap space before any changes, i just have a feeling things will change since the new HC will be focused on fixing the defense up and finding their qb. If they go after flacco/foles they may not be able to afford to resign him. Saffold i think will be the hardest to pull away as they have 35 mil in cap space and less needs as the broncos in order to extend or tag guys. With that said I believe it can be done for the right price, only 5 teams have 70+ in cap space. Indy who has proven they do not have issues at the line so they wont be throwing out a ton of money on those guys especially with drafting Nelson, their young center they drafted 2 years ago, Cleveland has a  ton of money wrapped up in their oline already so I do not expect them to splurge on that while carrying 2 Centers, 2 GUards, or 2 OTs at that price. You have the raiders, they may cut and splurge on a Center or Guard, which they already are paying 10+ mil each this coming year. Then you have the Jets who are in very similar positions as the bills with needs at almost every oline position except for LT. So this is the team I am really concerned about when it comes to FA as the GM has a ton of money, willing to blow it on anything that involves saving his job. They may have started over at HC but the GM still has that pressure as he has been there for 2 more years then Beane has so I expect him to go out there firing in hopes to better the offense for Gase. All in all if they land 3 Olineman that are upgrades to what the bills currently have ill be ecstatic.

I picked Metcalf based on the scouting reports out there, he was graded out as the 55th overall player and 5th WR in the draft with Harry, Brown, Campbell and Butler ahead of him. I figured this would be an acceptable move. Im good with another guy that has size on him that could be a red zone target or mid range receiver that needs to fight for the ball. So if it isnt Metcalf, then it can be Harry, or Butler if one of those guys falls. 

 

Again Lawrence is more of the dream than anything but it is an option until it is not. This is more of me liking him than being objective as I am for the rest of the mock offseason. I do expect them to Franchise tag him as I think they are going to put all the money on guys like Elliott, Cooper, and Dak for the next 1-2 years and Lawrence will become the odd man out. 

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1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

It may be a dream offseason but landing those olineman isnt out of the realm, Tampa has 8 mil in cap space enough to pay their Draft players so even with cuts to bring him back will be tough as they already have over 25 mil invested in olineman in 2019 but anything is possible. Other back up options would be Daryl Williams or Ju'wan James, I just went with him as he is flexible with both RT and LT more then those 2 but I would be happy with them, as I wouldnt mind seeing dawkins go back to RT if Donovan makes his way to Buffalo or they can interchange if need be. Dolphins have 20 mil in cap space, ton of holes and no coach as of yet so Juwan may slip especially with his issue of staying healthy. Carolina is another team who is hurting for cap so I expect Daryl Williams to hit the open market because of his injury and they have plenty of holes to fill. I was basing Paradis off of the bills landing Kugler but that may change since he went to the bucs. I still think he will be bills #1 target in free agency as beane said to be aggressive in FA this year and that oline is their biggest need. Denver has 35 mil in cap space before any changes, i just have a feeling things will change since the new HC will be focused on fixing the defense up and finding their qb. If they go after flacco/foles they may not be able to afford to resign him. Saffold i think will be the hardest to pull away as they have 35 mil in cap space and less needs as the broncos in order to extend or tag guys. With that said I believe it can be done for the right price, only 5 teams have 70+ in cap space. Indy who has proven they do not have issues at the line so they wont be throwing out a ton of money on those guys especially with drafting Nelson, their young center they drafted 2 years ago, Cleveland has a  ton of money wrapped up in their oline already so I do not expect them to splurge on that while carrying 2 Centers, 2 GUards, or 2 OTs at that price. You have the raiders, they may cut and splurge on a Center or Guard, which they already are paying 10+ mil each this coming year. Then you have the Jets who are in very similar positions as the bills with needs at almost every oline position except for LT. So this is the team I am really concerned about when it comes to FA as the GM has a ton of money, willing to blow it on anything that involves saving his job. They may have started over at HC but the GM still has that pressure as he has been there for 2 more years then Beane has so I expect him to go out there firing in hopes to better the offense for Gase. All in all if they land 3 Olineman that are upgrades to what the bills currently have ill be ecstatic.

I picked Metcalf based on the scouting reports out there, he was graded out as the 55th overall player and 5th WR in the draft with Harry, Brown, Campbell and Butler ahead of him. I figured this would be an acceptable move. Im good with another guy that has size on him that could be a red zone target or mid range receiver that needs to fight for the ball. So if it isnt Metcalf, then it can be Harry, or Butler if one of those guys falls. 

 

Again Lawrence is more of the dream than anything but it is an option until it is not. This is more of me liking him than being objective as I am for the rest of the mock offseason. I do expect them to Franchise tag him as I think they are going to put all the money on guys like Elliott, Cooper, and Dak for the next 1-2 years and Lawrence will become the odd man out. 

FYI - Thanks to your feedback in my mock earlier this week, I feel like all my o-line research prepping for my next version has prepared me for this conversation haha. 

Signing a few linemen is very realistic, you just picked the best 3 or 4 available (1 - Paradis, 2 - Donovan Smith, 3 - Rodger Saffold). That's the very unrealistic/dream part in my opinion. Like I said, their current teams will likely make offers to keep them, as well as a handful of the 31 other teams that need offensive line given how poor the top level talent is in the draft. Just because some teams don't have cap space now doesn't mean they won't make the necessary room too.

The options you suggested as alternatives seem solid though, especially Daryl Williams. Carolina connection makes sense of course. Could also see Ju'Wuan James as a target too depending on medical/price. I would guess we sign two top tier FAs at most. 

As far as Metcalf goes – I'm curious as to what site you're using for rankings, because he's the top guy or top 3 on most reputable sites/rankings. Point was that you wanted to cover that position so A-OK there. I just think it'll be someone like Harmon, Butler or Sills. 

Edited by NickChowaniec

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@NickChowaniec I looked at Scouts but I know Cbs and some other people have Metcalf higher and some have him lower at this point i think they are all guessing and that the combine you will get more of a better answer as to who the top tier WRs are. That is the thing with this position not one is dominant and with the defense so top heavy I can see most skill players dropping to late 1st early 2nd so bills will be able to pick one up. 

I think Paradis and Saffold would be the 2 I would push to get and be the 1st on the phone with their agents setting up contracts, as for the RT you dont have to pursue as there are a few good options out there. Good chance Juwan follows Gase if he likes him and miami doesnt pay him.

As for caps each team can definitely manipulate their contracts as much as possible to land their guy but you cant really manipulate the guarantees which is going to be the hard part being free of that right now is what can separate a team from most teams out there. So if Beane wants these guys I expect them to pay $2+ mil more a year then what their current team would be offering in order to land their services. So i do expect the bills to over pay for guys this year but if it works out then it shouldnt matter.

Oline is definitely a concern and a complete revamp so when your looking at guys at this position your going to realize the FA is pretty thin at Guard and Center, its going to cost the bills but its the only way to make themselves competitive in 2019 and spending all that time moving up to land allen and clearing cap would be for nothing because they could be out of a job come 2020 offseason.

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That's a big off season. Wouldn't complain if this happened.

Throwing that money at Jared Cook is only blemish. 

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I think I'd love if this because reality but it seems like a dream come true situation.  I'd love to draft Greedy but I think he goes top 5 and I'm not willing to give up the assests to move up to get him.  Honestly I think that at 9 we get a great player because I feel like 2 QB's will be gone by then leaving talent on the board at 9.  Thank you for doing a mock offseason I love reading these and I've done a few in years past and it takes a lot of knowledge so again Thank You.  

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On 1/18/2019 at 1:18 PM, Buffalo Fan said:

I think I'd love if this because reality but it seems like a dream come true situation.  I'd love to draft Greedy but I think he goes top 5 and I'm not willing to give up the assests to move up to get him.  Honestly I think that at 9 we get a great player because I feel like 2 QB's will be gone by then leaving talent on the board at 9.  Thank you for doing a mock offseason I love reading these and I've done a few in years past and it takes a lot of knowledge so again Thank You.  

No problem its all in good fun. I doubt it pans out and usually these never do but its fun to see what other people view as a good offseason for the team. all in all I am hoping Beane spends the money wisely and beefs up the oline. Greedy has been a guy I have liked all year long and he is definitely high on my list of guys but like you said only if hes there at 9. I wouldnt trade up in this draft but with beane as GM anything is possible especially with the 10 draft picks as he has shown this past year he is willing to make the moves. 

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