Draft Discussion 2019

[Danger]

39 minutes ago, Rgossett07 said:

Reported on ESPN this morning the Dolphins will look to 2020 Draft class for QB. 

So happy about this. Taking one of this years QBs would be panic mode. The rebuild has finally begun!

Herbert looks alright. Tua really looked bad mechanically and his arm strength looked poor in the Championship game.

[Rgossett07]

31 minutes ago, Danger said:

Herbert looks alright. Tua really looked bad mechanically and his arm strength looked poor in the Championship game.

It’s early. Both of those guys will have another year of development. 

I like Fromm better than both..... Fromm will have more games (big games) under his belt as well. Don’t sleep on him. 

 

[Swampbilly]

On 1/11/2019 at 11:26 AM, ericsvibe said:

There are some really good free agents hitting the market this year, the problem is, unless they are coming off of their rookie deal, Grier won't be interested in them. He doesn't want any stop gap players, his attitude is to let the young players play, mistakes and all, and save the cap space to use on a really good young player, instead of a bunch of older free agents. 

The first round QB shape up like this, there are basically 3 who have legit first round talent. Haskins, who will be the first pick taken which I discussed above. The other two are Drew Lock, and Kyler Murray. Both Lock and Murray have some major drawbacks, but both are going in the first round.

In Lock you have the prototypical pocket passer. At 6-4 he has the size and frame that NFL front offices look for. He has a cannon for an arm, and makes good decisions. His biggest negative has been that when he faces his toughest opponents, he has his worst performances. He feasted against non ranked opponents, and looked flat against ranked defenses. To me, I see a lot of Ryan Tannehill in Drew Lock, which kinda scares me in that I don't know if it is a mental thing with Lock where he gets rattled in big games, or is it just that his team didn't have the talent to compete. The other thing that I see when watching tape of Lock, is that most of his TD passes are on the outside, over the top of the defense. He is very good at the long ball, however, you don't see many passes where he is throwing into tight windows center field. In the NFL, DB are really good and you may only have 3 opportunities to throw over the defense down the sideline. QB's have to be able to kill defenses on the short routes, throwing through coverage. I watched every highlight reel I could find, and every single TD was thrown to the deepest WR on that route tree. Now don't get me wrong, he showed some great accuracy and touch on those passes, I just worry that once NFL defenses take away that money throw, how will he react. I still think that a team will draft Lock in the top 10. 

The next QB is Murray. I don't see any negatives to his game, he is a Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes type of QB. The biggest problem with Murray is his size. It has been rumored that he is barely 5-10, and his playing weight was around 185 lbs. Now he probably stayed light to keep his speed and quickness up, but in the NFL he will need to add muscle to his frame to protect his body. In college, most D-lineman run a 5.2 and up 40, giving him a major advantage. In the NFL, there are D-lineman running a 4.5. NFL LB weigh on average 30 lbs more than college LB's, and there are some that run in the 4.4 range. Murray will eventually take a monster shot, I fear that he might not survive it. Jakeem Grant, due to his size, is going to miss 3 to 4 games a year due to being beat up. When it is a WR, you can scheme for that. When your QB is missing that much time, it kills your team. Mariota right now has taken so much damage he is borderline to continue his career. We saw what happened to Mick Vick as the years passed, RG3, even Wilson has missed time. Murray will have to change how he plays the game of football in the NFL to limit contact. Even then, a cheap shot along the sideline, as we saw with Pat White, can change everything. Pat lost his heart for football after taking that devastating hit, and went back to baseball. That is a risk that will always be there with Murray. The only other negative to Murray, is that he has to use his entire body to generate power on the football. A QB like Ben Roth., even Haskins, can get the ball 30 yards downfield using only their arm. Murray can't do that. Any pass beyond 15 yards Murray has to step into the throw to put velocity on it. I will link a good video that explains how Murray uses fantastic technique to generate force. What this means is that their will be times where Murray won't be able to step into a throw, which could cause a floater. The Dolphins will have to be fine with this. He may throw a pick for every 2 or 3 TD's he throws. Some teams would love that ratio, while it would drive other teams crazy. All this being said, I think that Murray will be on the board at 13 when Miami picks, if we decide not to trade up. I don't think Murray makes it out of the first round as he will be drafted by a team with an aging QB.

The other QB that most talk about is Grier. I think he goes in the second round. He is great at a lot of things, but him skipping the bowl game really makes me question his heart. Why would you miss out on your chance to make a statement when the entire NFL scouting community is watching? At any rate, he is an option in the second, but I don't think he is any better than Luke Falk who we already have on the roster. I want an upgrade at QB, and the 3 listed above are the only upgrades I see over Tannehill and Falk.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hZNsLezqbw
 

 

I think you are spot on with your QB assessment.......especially with the comparison between Tannehill and Lock.  They are extremely similar IMO and although both can play and win they are very limited in as long as things are going to your initial game plan they will play well enough to keep you competitive, but when the game gets away from where you hoped it would be and you have to rely on the QB to pull out the win.......they fold under the pressure and make ridiculous mistakes.

[Dolphinmeister]

8 hours ago, Rgossett07 said:

Reported on ESPN this morning the Dolphins will look to 2020 Draft class for QB. 

So happy about this. Taking one of this years QBs would be panic mode. The rebuild has finally begun!

Does this say that Miami knows the are not going to win many games next year no matter who the coach is. Whom ever they hire must be getting a free pass on performance next season.

Edited January 14, 2019 by Dolphinmeister

[Tetsujin]

I'm not sure about Tua's arm not looking strong - looked strong to me, albeit with a couple of questionable throws. Fromm seems like a game-manager. I'd be disappointed if we drafted him.

[Tetsujin]

On 1/12/2019 at 9:44 PM, Swampbilly said:

 

I don’t know about the Johnson pick.  I like the player and the value, but he wouldn’t fill a big need except for depth I guess.  

Reshad Jones understudy for 2020.

[ericsvibe]

A couple of quick responses, and then some new business. Tyree Jackson isn't coming out this year. He has applied for the graduate transfer program and will be one of the many QB's coming out in 2020. So here are some new rumors.

 

1. Apparently Grier really likes Falk. The Dolphins did a ton of pre-draft research on him last year, but had other needs. When he became available, they didn't waste any time brining him to Miami. I also liked Falk last year and wrote about him on one of the threads. Fales and Osweiler won't be resigned, that is why we signed the QB from the Lions. 

2. I would be very disappointed if Miami had the attitude that they will wait until 2020 to look at a QB. Even rebuilding, I think we are going to win 5 or 6 games next year at the least. There isn't any guarantee that we will be better situated in that draft, than this one. Haskins is a legit franchise QB, in fact, several GM's have commented to some of the media that Haskins would be behind Mayfield, but in front of the rest of the draft class last year. So that tells you how favorably he is viewed in the scouting community. Miami should still do the research and see what it would take to trade up to get him.

3. There is a new rumor that the Eagles may go with Foles, over Wentz. They are saying that Foles play style fits the Eagles offense better than Wentz. If that is true, they are saying that the Eagles my ask for 2 firsts, and a 3rd or 4th for him. Wentz would fit Griers mantra of getting a player on their rookie deal. The Dolphins need to look very hard at this possibility. 

4. Kyler Murray has sparked a ton of interest in the NFL, due to the fact that no one thought that he was going to play football. I heard an interesting angle to Murray being drafted by Miami. Would Murray be willing to do what Tebow never did, that is play multiple positions. Tebow could have had a career in the NFL if he was willing to play TE. Even the Patriots tried to get him to switch positions, he refused, and now he is a minor league baseball player. The thinking is this, if Murray agrees to be a swiss army knife if it doesn't work out at QB, he could be drafted by Miami. Grier likes smaller, electric playmakers. Wilson and Grant are perfect examples of this. Many draft pundits roasted Miami for drafting Grant, saying he was a gimmick player. Grant has proved them wrong. Miami was roasted for signing Wilson, a player that many said didn't have a real position on offense. We saw the results this year. Murray is a similar type of player. His size suggests that he won't be successful in the NFL, but he has the determination to prove everyone wrong. Murray coming in at RB, WR, QB, would cause tons of mismatches. Imagine Murray running a half back pass option, where he catches a quick out in the flat, and can either run, or throw deep to Grant or Wilson. The defense will be frozen in place, they have to respect his arm, but if they don't pressure him, he will make the first defender miss and pick up 20 yards before the secondary can get to him. A good offensive coordinator would have a field day with Murray, even if he doesn't play QB full time. He is a legit weapon, that is if he agrees to play this way. If Murray is another Tebow, and refuses to play anything other than QB, I would pass.

[Tetsujin]

58 minutes ago, ericsvibe said:

A couple of quick responses, and then some new business. Tyree Jackson isn't coming out this year. He has applied for the graduate transfer program and will be one of the many QB's coming out in 2020. So here are some new rumors.

You sure that was Tyree Jackson? I've just read otherwise. He's playing in the Senior Bowl apparently.

[hrubes20]

21 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said:

You sure that was Tyree Jackson? I've just read otherwise. He's playing in the Senior Bowl apparently.

Yeah, Jackson declared.  

[hrubes20]

1 hour ago, ericsvibe said:

A couple of quick responses, and then some new business. Tyree Jackson isn't coming out this year. He has applied for the graduate transfer program and will be one of the many QB's coming out in 2020. So here are some new rumors.

 

1. Apparently Grier really likes Falk. The Dolphins did a ton of pre-draft research on him last year, but had other needs. When he became available, they didn't waste any time brining him to Miami. I also liked Falk last year and wrote about him on one of the threads. Fales and Osweiler won't be resigned, that is why we signed the QB from the Lions. 

2. I would be very disappointed if Miami had the attitude that they will wait until 2020 to look at a QB. Even rebuilding, I think we are going to win 5 or 6 games next year at the least. There isn't any guarantee that we will be better situated in that draft, than this one. Haskins is a legit franchise QB, in fact, several GM's have commented to some of the media that Haskins would be behind Mayfield, but in front of the rest of the draft class last year. So that tells you how favorably he is viewed in the scouting community. Miami should still do the research and see what it would take to trade up to get him.

3. There is a new rumor that the Eagles may go with Foles, over Wentz. They are saying that Foles play style fits the Eagles offense better than Wentz. If that is true, they are saying that the Eagles my ask for 2 firsts, and a 3rd or 4th for him. Wentz would fit Griers mantra of getting a player on their rookie deal. The Dolphins need to look very hard at this possibility. 

4. Kyler Murray has sparked a ton of interest in the NFL, due to the fact that no one thought that he was going to play football. I heard an interesting angle to Murray being drafted by Miami. Would Murray be willing to do what Tebow never did, that is play multiple positions. Tebow could have had a career in the NFL if he was willing to play TE. Even the Patriots tried to get him to switch positions, he refused, and now he is a minor league baseball player. The thinking is this, if Murray agrees to be a swiss army knife if it doesn't work out at QB, he could be drafted by Miami. Grier likes smaller, electric playmakers. Wilson and Grant are perfect examples of this. Many draft pundits roasted Miami for drafting Grant, saying he was a gimmick player. Grant has proved them wrong. Miami was roasted for signing Wilson, a player that many said didn't have a real position on offense. We saw the results this year. Murray is a similar type of player. His size suggests that he won't be successful in the NFL, but he has the determination to prove everyone wrong. Murray coming in at RB, WR, QB, would cause tons of mismatches. Imagine Murray running a half back pass option, where he catches a quick out in the flat, and can either run, or throw deep to Grant or Wilson. The defense will be frozen in place, they have to respect his arm, but if they don't pressure him, he will make the first defender miss and pick up 20 yards before the secondary can get to him. A good offensive coordinator would have a field day with Murray, even if he doesn't play QB full time. He is a legit weapon, that is if he agrees to play this way. If Murray is another Tebow, and refuses to play anything other than QB, I would pass.

1.  I'm fine with that for 2019.  See what Falk has. 

2.  Of course they would research what it would take to move up and get Haskins.  But that cost would almost certainly be too prohibitive.  Still need to draft a QB somewhere though, even if it's in the 7th.  

3.  I love Wentz, but that back injury is scary.  I don't love the idea of blowing multiple 1st rounders on the injury history.

4.  Hard pass on putting Murray in any position where he would be taking more hits.  

[ericsvibe]

Wow,I wasn't aware that Jackson declared. I saw that he applied for the transfer program. I guess he didn't get a response he liked.

[Swampbilly]

On 1/14/2019 at 2:13 PM, ericsvibe said:

Wow,I wasn't aware that Jackson declared. I saw that he applied for the transfer program. I guess he didn't get a response he liked.

I would give up 2 firsts for Haskins but not for Wentz.  Wentz has 2 significant injuries that will affect his career already, and he’s already 3/4 of the way through his rookie contract........Yes he could be extended for a fifth year because of the first round option but that would be at a heavy price considering he’s a QB........and that essentially defeats the purpose of having a QB on the rookie wage scale.

I agree that Haskins is absolutely a franchise QB.  Even if Herbert declared this year I’m certain Haskins would be taken ahead of him.  Haskins has looked that good so far.

Murray is intriguing but I don’t see him being willing to play any other positions outside of QB.  He stands to make more money in football than baseball if he plays QB.........but that’s probably not the case if he plays the slot or the multi tool position.  Although if he is open to playing a position outside of QB he can probably play for MLB too.

[Swampbilly]

I'm probably going to get blasted for this, but we need to look into moving Xavien Howard.  Him and Tunsil are probably the only players on our team we could get 1st round picks for in a trade, and with Howard we might not really have the cap space to sign him long term.  I would imagine a team like the Colts or maybe Philly would have interest in a CB like Howard.......and the Colts have quite a bit of cap room available to sign an elite Vet long term.  Colts have the 26th pick in the first round of the 2019 draft, as well as two second round picks (34 and 59)......as well as $122 mil in cap space available for 2019.

The extra first round pick could come in handy in an attempt to trade up for Ohio State QB Haskins in the upcoming draft or for one of the coveted QBs in the 2020 draft.

[Tetsujin]

1 minute ago, Swampbilly said:

I'm probably going to get blasted for this, but we need to look into moving Xavien Howard.  Him and Tunsil are probably the only players on our team we could get 1st round picks for in a trade, and with Howard we might not really have the cap space to sign him long term.

I think Minkah might be the only Dolphin I'd take off the table. I'm on the fence, but I'd probably take a 1st or an early 2nd & 3rd for Howard. He'll get offered 12M-15M per year by someone.

I'd rather work out a reasonable extension with Tunsil because he'll keep the QB from getting hit, but isn't elite to the point he'll get 10M+.

[Swampbilly]

7 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said:

I think Minkah might be the only Dolphin I'd take off the table. I'm on the fence, but I'd probably take a 1st or an early 2nd & 3rd for Howard. He'll get offered 12M-15M per year by someone.

I'd rather work out a reasonable extension with Tunsil because he'll keep the QB from getting hit, but isn't elite to the point he'll get 10M+.

I feel that Howard is easily worth the 26th overall pick.......but I would also take a 2nd and 3rd combined for him.  He's a young elite CB with great measurables. 

I agree on the extension for Tunsil and for the same reason, but I do think he gets the $10 mil and up per year deal.

I also agree that Minkah's off the table since he has 3 years remaining on his rookie deal.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Swampbilly