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TheKillerNacho

Sooners' Kyler Murray officially declares for NFL draft

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Take him at #13, Miami.

If he tanks, just draft another QB in 2020.

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2 hours ago, jrry32 said:
3 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Moreover, his earning potential is undoubtedly better in the MLB with less injury risk. But if he loves football over baseball, who are we to judge?

That's not accurate.

You can argue the word undoubtedly, but (and I think the majority of baseball posters agree with me), Murray's earning potential in baseball is enormous. He has a very high floor as a prospect given that he's a comfortably plus defensive CF with pop, which essentially ensures that he makes the majors in some capacity and sticks as a reserve OF. But beyond that, he has good feel for hitting and put up excellent numbers in a league that he should not have been able to adjust to all that quickly. 

I would expect that almost every organization in baseball has a scout who loves the guy, and is putting a 60/65 FV grade on him. Those types of guys get paid, maybe not 8 figures, but I'd be very, very surprised if his total earnings as a baseball player didn't exceed the guarantees on his first NFL contract (~$30MM) and I'd put the median probably around double that. That's just the reality of being a plus defensive guy who projects to have a 10+ year career.

Murray may be able to make more money in football if you absolutely dream on it; where he'd be a franchise QB who plays until he's in his late 30's. But I think he's far more likely to get "I own a car dealership and never have to work again money" in baseball.

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4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

You can argue the word undoubtedly, but (and I think the majority of baseball posters agree with me), Murray's earning potential in baseball is enormous. He has a very high floor as a prospect given that he's a comfortably plus defensive CF with pop, which essentially ensures that he makes the majors in some capacity and sticks as a reserve OF. But beyond that, he has good feel for hitting and put up excellent numbers in a league that he should not have been able to adjust to all that quickly. 

I would expect that almost every organization in baseball has a scout who loves the guy, and is putting a 60/65 FV grade on him. Those types of guys get paid, maybe not 8 figures, but I'd be very, very surprised if his total earnings as a baseball player didn't exceed the guarantees on his first NFL contract (~$30MM) and I'd put the median probably around double that. That's just the reality of being a plus defensive guy who projects to have a 10+ year career.

Murray may be able to make more money in football if you absolutely dream on it; where he'd be a franchise QB who plays until he's in his late 30's. But I think he's far more likely to get "I own a car dealership and never have to work again money" in baseball.

There are risks to both. Murray is about as likely to be a top OF as he is to be a top QB. If you compare those outcomes, he makes more as a top QB. If you compare him as an average OF or an average QB, he makes more as a QB. If he washes out at QB and washes out at OF, it would probably be comparable. So basically, your assumption here has to come down to him being better at one sport than the other. Yes, if he's a solid enough OF to stick around and a wash out at QB, he'll make more in the MLB. The reality is that as a QB, if he's any good, he's going to see big money much sooner than he would in the MLB, and as we're seeing with QBs now, those guys can play into their mid-to-late 30s. Murray is less likely to play into his late 30s, but it's not unreasonable to think he could play to 32 to 35 years old if he's a quality starting QB. I'm not sold he'd play significantly longer in the MLB.

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5 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

There are risks to both. Murray is about as likely to be a top OF as he is to be a top QB. If you compare those outcomes, he makes more as a top QB. If you compare him as an average OF or an average QB, he makes more as a QB. If he washes out at QB and washes out at OF, it would probably be comparable. So basically, your assumption here has to come down to him being better at one sport than the other. Yes, if he's a solid enough OF to stick around and a wash out at QB, he'll make more in the MLB. The reality is that as a QB, if he's any good, he's going to see big money much sooner than he would in the MLB, and as we're seeing with QBs now, those guys can play into their mid-to-late 30s. Murray is less likely to play into his late 30s, but it's not unreasonable to think he could play to 32 to 35 years old if he's a quality starting QB. I'm not sold he'd play significantly longer in the MLB.

Based on what I've seen of him as both, I would argue he's a significantly better MLB prospect than he is an NFL prospect. Or if you don't think I'm a good scout of NFL talent (I'm not), he's a significantly better MLB prospect than I see people wanting him in the NFL admit. Like I said, there are teams that would take him as a top 10 overall prospect in baseball right now. As a hitter, that is a significantly safer group to be in than potential early round or even potential first round NFL QB.

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The real question should be, is he closer to his ceiling in baseball or football? 

What kind of baseball player was he? CF with range?  line drive hitter? IF with a hose? 

 

Yeah baseball is more work, but the contracts are better no? 

He has to be in the right situation to have success in the league. 

Let's say they traded down and he went to 'Zona. Are they going to get enough OL/WR talent around him? He's built like Tarik Cohen not Russell Wilson. 

I'm sure he loves football more, that's why the indecision. Probably wasn't expecting the success  

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With that speed and his hitting, I am pretty certain his on base percentage was/is very good.

I am not at all certain he can be an NFL QB. Not much bulk and his performance in the biggest game of his very limited college experience was very lackluster. His throws in that game were very erratic and off target.

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3 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

Kardinals will take Murray and trade Rosen for a Kings Ransom.

Adam Sheftner already stirring the pot.

They are not getting a king's ransom for rosen at all

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Always go with the agent lol.

Kingsbury was brought in to develop Rosen.    Taking an October comment and projecting it to taking Murray over Bosa is just a silly season entertainment piece that's about 3 weeks early because of the timing of the Kingsbury hire and Murray declaration.   Because the October quote is there, Schefter can say it's more than just conjecture, but it's a puff piece IMO.

Unless he's a lot bigger (not height, frame) than I saw, I'd be shocked if he went Rd1.   And I'd feel bad for that fanbase.    

 

Couldn't say it better. 

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So if he were to go number 1 in the draft, would this be the first time 2 QBs from the same school went number 1 in back to back years? When is the last time 2 guys from the same school period went number 1 overall in consecutive years? 

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8 minutes ago, Jags said:

So if he were to go number 1 in the draft, would this be the first time 2 QBs from the same school went number 1 in back to back years? When is the last time 2 guys from the same school period went number 1 overall in consecutive years? 

It's only happened once before in 68/69 when Ron Yary and then OJ Simpson went #1 overall from USC. 

But I don't think that there's any way in the world he goes number one. 

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28 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

With that speed and his hitting, I am pretty certain his on base percentage was/is very good.

He OBP'd .390 and slugged .550 or something like that after taking a year off and having to adjust to the college game from high school. That's crazy. You can also just look at his swing there's some looseness in his hands and enough bat speed to the point where his contact ability is probably more of a pitch recognition or conscious choice to hit for power instead of a true swing and miss issue.

He might never stop swinging at bad breaking balls (this is a risk with literally every hitter), but that's really the only red flag I think you could have beyond the lack of reps (which is both a good and bad thing).

Edited by ramssuperbowl99

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38 minutes ago, Forge said:

They are not getting a king's ransom for rosen at all

@jrry32

I fear my wordplay with the letter K was not as good as I thought. 

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