Sooners' Kyler Murray officially declares for NFL draft

[showtime]

4 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

He was awesome when he and his team could out-talent everyone. When they faced their biggest competition in Alabama, he looked like a boy among men. And it won't get easier at the next level.

Oklahoma came into that game with like the worst passing defense in the country.  He didn't even play poorly, either.  Threw for over 300 yards and had 2 TD's and then had another 100 yards rushing with a rush TD.  Hollywood Brown, Oklahoma's best receiver, also didn't play. Murray's team was outrageously outmatched.  How is it fair to pin point that on him?

[TheKillerNacho]

55 minutes ago, jjab360 said:

Logically, why would a WR be able to handle punishment at that size and not a QB? It's pretty clear which position takes more hits in today's NFL.

Most WRs don't even play at this weight. Almost all that do aren't players who receive a ton of targets per game (a WR1, if you will).

And no, QBs take more hits than WRs usually. Sure, WRs can get decked after catching the ball sometimes, but the vast majority of WR context isn't at full speed. Moreover, a typical starting wideout catches the ball just over four times per game. Which translates to four hits. The QB can get on far more plays (not just sacks). Obviously elite OL play would reduce this, but being a running threat QB like Kyler would increase the amount of hits he takes per game. All in all, Kyler would definitely take more hits per game than any WR in the NFL that is currently playing at less than 180.

[TheKillerNacho]

1 hour ago, Shanedorf said:

OverTheCap has a lengthy article on potential earnings in MLB vs NFL

https://overthecap.com/kyler-murray-nfl-decision/

Most of you don't have the attention span for it, so I'll tell you the answer

He can earn more as an NFL QB than he will as an MLB Outfielder,  given a 10 year career

However, that part is in question given his slight build, as noted by others

 

 

Does this account for baseball careers being far longer on average? He may be able to make money quicker as an NFL QB, but I'd think as far as making money over a career, the MLB may be better. Unless, perhaps, he ends up developing into a long-term franchise QB. Which the odds on that are slim even for the best of prospects.

[jjab360]

19 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Most WRs don't even play at this weight. Almost all that do aren't players who receive a ton of targets per game (a WR1, if you will).

And no, QBs take more hits than WRs usually. Sure, WRs can get decked after catching the ball sometimes, but the vast majority of WR context isn't at full speed. Moreover, a typical starting wideout catches the ball just over four times per game. Which translates to four hits. The QB can get on far more plays (not just sacks). Obviously elite OL play would reduce this, but being a running threat QB like Kyler would increase the amount of hits he takes per game. All in all, Kyler would definitely take more hits per game than any WR in the NFL that is currently playing at less than 180.

Antonio Brown, Doug Baldwin, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb are all no. 1 WRs that play at around the same size as Kyler Murray. All of them receive around 100-150 targets per season which translates to about 100-150 hits of varying degree when the ball comes their way.

 

And for the record he's listed at 195 lbs not 180 lbs, for whatever that's worth.

[RuskieTitan]

49 minutes ago, showtime said:

Oklahoma came into that game with like the worst passing defense in the country.  He didn't even play poorly, either.  Threw for over 300 yards and had 2 TD's and then had another 100 yards rushing with a rush TD.  Hollywood Brown, Oklahoma's best receiver, also didn't play. Murray's team was outrageously outmatched.  How is it fair to pin point that on him?

Try watching the game instead of watching the box score.

[showtime]

8 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

Try watching the game instead of watching the box score.

I did watch the game.  And you're beyond ignorant to blame Kyler Murray for that loss.  His team was overmatched by a ton.  Oklahoma's defense is one of the worst in the nation.

This guy had an AMAZING season and you're ragging on him because his team lost to a team that's significantly better?  Lol.

[jrry32]

2 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Explain why. 

Sure. I am not an expert on baseball, but let's break it down. Here's how it works in the MLB (I'm going to be optimistic and assume he spends only one year in the minors):

Year 1: Minors - Rookie Deal

Year 2: Majors - Rookie Deal

Year 3: Majors - Rookie Deal

Year 4: Majors - Rookie Deal

Year 5: Arbitration

Year 6: Arbitration

Year 7: Arbitration

Year 8: Free Agency

Here's how it works in the NFL (assuming he goes R1):

Year 1: Rookie Deal

Year 2: Rookie Deal

Year 3: Rookie Deal

Year 4: Rookie Deal

Year 5: Fifth-Year Option

Year 6: Free Agency

Simply put, Kyler's Fifth-Year Option is worth significantly more than he'd make in arbitration, and he hits free agency two years earlier. And if he's a good starting QB, he'll get paid as much or more than a top OF. And that doesn't take into account his NFL rookie contract vs. MLB rookie contract (depending on how high he goes, his NFL rookie contract could be worth significantly more).

[Dr LBC]

13 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I know that one source I read said the A's could recoup all of his signing bonus if he were to sign a football contract. So he's going to have to choose. Thankfully, NFL teams will have a good idea of his intentions this February, where he'll have to choose between the A's training camp and the NFL scouting combine.

That's less of a concern as 1) He's likely to earn that back and more if he goes in the 1st round (and he wouldn't be doing this and declaring for the draft if he hadn't been assured - probably by multiple spots - that he'd be a 1st round pick; which fits with what Gil Brandt had tweeted about about a week ago).  2) His agent would front whatever he needs to pay back because of #1, he'll make more as a 1st round pick in the NFL than he'd make until he got to his second contract in MLB (i.e. past arbitration).

[Dr LBC]

Also, here's an article that fully supports @jrry32's argument on the contract/money stuffs:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnperrotto/2019/01/10/heisman-trophy-winner-kyler-murray-spurning-baseball-for-nfl-makes-financial-sense/#77c435fc57ad

[Soko]

57 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Most WRs don't even play at this weight. Almost all that do aren't players who receive a ton of targets per game (a WR1, if you will).

And no, QBs take more hits than WRs usually. Sure, WRs can get decked after catching the ball sometimes, but the vast majority of WR context isn't at full speed. Moreover, a typical starting wideout catches the ball just over four times per game. Which translates to four hits. The QB can get on far more plays (not just sacks). Obviously elite OL play would reduce this, but being a running threat QB like Kyler would increase the amount of hits he takes per game. All in all, Kyler would definitely take more hits per game than any WR in the NFL that is currently playing at less than 180.

Seems sort of arbitrary, especially since Murray’s weight ranges from 180-195. 

Tyreek Hill is listed at 185 and had over 100 touches this season. D-Jax is listed at 175 and has sustained multiple seasons with ranging targets/touches. 

Also really doesn’t take into account that QBs are protected now more than ever. Nor the idea that bigger/thicker doesn’t necessarily mean more durable.

[CWood21]

57 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Does this account for baseball careers being far longer on average? He may be able to make money quicker as an NFL QB, but I'd think as far as making money over a career, the MLB may be better. Unless, perhaps, he ends up developing into a long-term franchise QB. Which the odds on that are slim even for the best of prospects.

Unless you're talking about elite player, the money is pretty heavily in favor of NFL.  Last year, Josh Rosen as the 10th overall pick got $17.6M guaranteed.  Lamar Jackson as the 32nd overall pick got $9.5M guaranteed.  Figure an average, and you're looking at ~$13.5M in guarantees which blows the $4.7M guarantee he got from the A's.  Figure roughly 4 years in the minors which matches the rookie contract of Kyler Murray.  Add on 3 years of minimum salary (~$2M) and then 3 years of arbitration, and if Kyler Murray gets that 2nd contract he's getting exponentially more money in those years.  The only time it might lead to more money is if he's getting elite money.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Cards take him #1 and trade Rosen to the Jags.

No thanks 

[RuskieTitan]

40 minutes ago, showtime said:

I did watch the game.  And you're beyond ignorant to blame Kyler Murray for that loss.  His team was overmatched by a ton.  Oklahoma's defense is one of the worst in the nation.

This guy had an AMAZING season and you're ragging on him because his team lost to a team that's significantly better?  Lol.

I'm not blaming him for the loss. You are ignorant for putting words in my mouth. His team was overmatched, yes, and so was he. The player that dominated lesser opponents was not the same as the one who had to face players that stand a legitimate shot at playing in the NFL.

He certainly had an amazing season. I'm not taking that away from him, he got his Heisman. But against competition of the like which he will see in the NFL, he did not stand out in the fashion that Baker Mayfield had, for example. I don't care that his team lost. I care how he looked when he went up against real competition.

And you know who had an AMAZING college career (not just single season)? Tim Tebow. How'd his college success translate to the NFL?

[showtime]

23 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

I'm not blaming him for the loss. You are ignorant for putting words in my mouth. His team was overmatched, yes, and so was he. The player that dominated lesser opponents was not the same as the one who had to face players that stand a legitimate shot at playing in the NFL.

He certainly had an amazing season. I'm not taking that away from him, he got his Heisman. But against competition of the like which he will see in the NFL, he did not stand out in the fashion that Baker Mayfield had, for example. I don't care that his team lost. I care how he looked when he went up against real competition.

And you know who had an AMAZING college career (not just single season)? Tim Tebow. How'd his college success translate to the NFL?

Okay so, lets look at Oklahoma, who finished dead last in passing defense.  His #1 receiver was out for the game.  Alabama is WAY SUPERIOR to Oklahoma in talent.  Those two teams aren't even on the same planet.  So lets take this game and highlight Kyler Murray.  It makes no sense.

That argument makes way more sense for a guy like Tua Tagovailoa.  He was great vs much lesser competition all season.  When he was matched up against teams that could hang with Alabama (Georgia and Clemson) he was very subpar for his standards.  Alabama was not overmatched as a team vs Georgia or Clemson.  

One of the big knocks on Baker Mayfield last season was his performance against Georgia when he played a great game and then didn't produce at the end.  He took a fair amount of criticism after that game from critics.  You're talking about ONE game.  That's makes no sense.  These guys who are elite blue chip prospects at times don't play 'real competition' outside of once per season.  That's like saying, Tua sucks because he was elite, but then played under his standard when he faced elite competition vs Clemson.  That's just dumb.

You counter your own points by talking about Tim Tebow.  He showed up in TONS of big games where he played against other top teams, yet he didn't pan out in the league.  But when Murray plays ONE game that's subpar, it's a knock against him.  Vince Young played well in huge games.  Matt Leinart played well in most of the big games he ever played in at the college level.  

Murray and Tebow are nowhere near the same.  Murray is a much better thrower of the ball than Tebow could ever dream of being.  I don't blame you for being weary of a QB who has great feet.  You're a Titans fan, right?  Probably still shook up from Marcus Mariota being garbage, so it's understandable.

[RuskieTitan]

2 hours ago, showtime said:

Okay so, lets look at Oklahoma, who finished dead last in passing defense.  His #1 receiver was out for the game.  Alabama is WAY SUPERIOR to Oklahoma in talent.  Those two teams aren't even on the same planet.  So lets take this game and highlight Kyler Murray.  It makes no sense.

That argument makes way more sense for a guy like Tua Tagovailoa.  He was great vs much lesser competition all season.  When he was matched up against teams that could hang with Alabama (Georgia and Clemson) he was very subpar for his standards.  Alabama was not overmatched as a team vs Georgia or Clemson.  

One of the big knocks on Baker Mayfield last season was his performance against Georgia when he played a great game and then didn't produce at the end.  He took a fair amount of criticism after that game from critics.  You're talking about ONE game.  That's makes no sense.  These guys who are elite blue chip prospects at times don't play 'real competition' outside of once per season.  That's like saying, Tua sucks because he was elite, but then played under his standard when he faced elite competition vs Clemson.  That's just dumb.

You counter your own points by talking about Tim Tebow.  He showed up in TONS of big games where he played against other top teams, yet he didn't pan out in the league.  But when Murray plays ONE game that's subpar, it's a knock against him.  Vince Young played well in huge games.  Matt Leinart played well in most of the big games he ever played in at the college level.  

Murray and Tebow are nowhere near the same.  Murray is a much better thrower of the ball than Tebow could ever dream of being.  I don't blame you for being weary of a QB who has great feet.  You're a Titans fan, right?  Probably still shook up from Marcus Mariota being garbage, so it's understandable.

When the argument turns to pulling the other person's (completely irrelevant) fanhood into the conversation, you know the other person is grasping at straws. Thank you sir, and good day.