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Rookie QB Stats (1994-2016), Reasonable Expectations, & Deshone Kizer in Context


Mind Character

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At some point this season, Deshone Kizer is going to throw interceptions, fumble the ball, make foolish decisions, and look like a rookie QB. I thought it would be good to contextualize his upcoming performance based on past rookie QB history...

Below are the relevant passing statistics for rookie QBs in the league from 1994 to 2016, with at least 5 games started in their rookie season, sorted by games started (so the more games started "16" the higher on the list)

There are two separate tables generated from www.pro-football-reference.com ; the first table includes true rookie QBs. The second table also includes rookie QBs and QBs in their first official starting year.

***You can click on the images of the charts to enlarge here on the forum. Then you have the option to click again to zoom in. Clicking on the image a third time (after it's been enlarged and zoomed-in upon will open the image in a new tab so you can navigate around the chart on its own page***

 

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Given that historical context, what do you think are reasonable expectations for his numbers?? 

 

Beyond just numbers, what do you want to see specifically in his play (i.e., minimized redzone mistakes, clutch 4th quarter play, the ability to battle back after interceptions, etc..)?

 

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7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Provided he plays all 16 games?

3200 yards, 18 TD's, 15 picks, 60%.

Add in a few rushing TD's and a couple hundred yards.

Could be.

It's hard to match him with anyone on the list in terms of skill set, supporting cast, # of college games played, college stats, etc.

I think your numbers are as good as any one could speculate, but I think the TDs and picks would be higher and the completion percentage lower.

Maybe 20 TDs, 19 picks, 57%?

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I'm hoping he goes more TDs than INTs in the ratio...and his INTs aren't redzone or critical moment INTs

Couple of highlights from the QB history...Andrew Luck at 54%; Matthew Stafford threw 13 TDs: 20 INTs (forgot all about that); Peyton Manning with 28 INTs; Tim Couch sacked 56 times with no one else on the list except 1 QB (Bortles) in the 50s for sacks;

AND then unmercifully David Carr being sacked 76 times....76 TIMES...that is nuts..I always remembered that number as 64 for some reason....That is how you break a young QB...that's insanity...that was a rough expansion team and it would've been great to see what Carr could've done with better talent around him as he was more athletic and accurate than Derek coming out of college (Didn't have Derek's big arm though)...

I'm thinking 20 TDS: 16 INTS; 5 Rushing TDs: 55% completion percentage....

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2 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

From that chart there were 6 QBs with a rookie rating over 90. Dak, Ben, Wilson, RGIII, Bulger and Kessler.

 

As Kessler and Bulger played 8 games or less and Big Ben started 13 games,  it really speaks to how Dak, Big Ben, RG3, and Russell had unbelievable rookie years.

Makes me think their elite escapability and their ability to extend plays was critical for their rookie years.

So many names lost to time...Marc Bulger, Josh Freeman, Charlie Frye, Joey Harrington...Oh to only think of the nonsense excited and hopeful fans all said about those QBs (I thought Charlie Frye was the one for real though!)

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12 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Provided he plays all 16 games?

3200 yards, 18 TD's, 15 picks, 60%.

Add in a few rushing TD's and a couple hundred yards.

The 16 games part would be the most impressive part of this stat. When's the last time we had a QB play all season?

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Great topic @Mind Character - I think it's so incredibly important to have realistic expectations when it comes to Kizer.

13 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Provided he plays all 16 games?

3200 yards, 18 TD's, 15 picks, 60%.

Add in a few rushing TD's and a couple hundred yards.

It's funny, I wrote out a detailed post with my expectations and realized they basically mirrored yours, so figured I'd just piggy-back and +1 instead. The two areas I did want to expound upon was the completion percentage and sacks:

  • Completion % above 60, and I don't care if it is somewhat artificially boosted by shorter, high % passes. This is an area that I expect (or even demand?) he grow given his inconsistency in short passes in college and if he continues that trend any later than the second half of the season I'll be disappointed.
  • I really want him to strive to be no greater than 30 sacks, especially if the line remains healthy. In the first preseason game he showed a great awareness in the pocket, but he's also shown his internal clock on when to get rid of the ball isn't calibrated yet and is something he really needs to focus on as starter.
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I'd like to see him speed up his clock and I'd like to see him limit hits too.  The completion percentage I'm not a huge stickler on if he's throwing the ball down the field, at least as a rookie.

What I'd like is to see a lot of games he's only throwing the ball 20-30 times and being able to use the ground game and defense to stay competitive. Limiting throws inevitably limits sacks/hits and turnovers,

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I'd like Kizer to show that we don't need to draft a passer high next year.  I thought Kizer would be a pretty good player but didn't originally buy into the fact that he was going to preclude us from grabbing a passer if we have a top-5 pick.  I would like 60% completion and for him to progress during his rookie season, taking some big shots down field and having some memorable  plays, stamping his mark on this team.

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