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AFC Championship: Patriots vs. Chiefs


DigInBoys

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I think the fact KC got the Arrowhead playoff monkey off their back means they won’t play tight. Maybe A little looser. They won’t have that weighing them down for once IMO,

Probably not the most perfect example, but I think back to the 2005 NFC CG somewhat:

Seattle had not won a playoff game in 21 years, then got that monkey off their back.

They faced a Carolina team that was basically the same team which had made the Super Bowl 2 years prior but were arguably better (+132 point differential, Steve Smith led in every WR category, Delhimme had better numbers, came off a convincing playoff win vs a talented Bears team ).

The Seahawks won.

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Pats usually play much better at home than they should (like yesterday). However, on the road, it usually is a different story. And, KC has been a house of horrors for them.

Chiefs will get the ball first, go up 7-0, and get the crowd into it.

31-17, Kansas City.

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Well, now that the monkey is off the Chiefs back and all the bad voodoo is gone from the losing streak at Arrowhead in the playoffs, hopefully they play and coach looser. 

I think KC will win this because it's at Arrowhead and the Patriots defense doesn't travel well, much like the Chiefs. I think Mahomes is a better QB than Brady at this point in their careers and the Chiefs pass rush is pretty massive. The Chiefs continued to show that they can pressure the QB against the "best oline in football" last week and they should be able to pressure Brady at home.

A lot has changed for the Chiefs since their first matchup as well. The Chiefs had 4 safeties injured and were signing guys the week of to play. I believe Josh Shaw started and he's no longer with the team. Ron Parker and Scandrick were starters and no longer play. Justin Houston was out but is back and and a terror again. Hitchens has looked a lot more comfortable lately and I'm not sure if thats because the scheme has been simplified or if he's learned the complicated scheme that Sutton uses. Oh, and Dorian O'Daniel is an hybrid ILB that is a heat seaking missile that started playing a lot in the second half of the season. The Pats tore the Chiefs up with dump offs because Hitchens/Ragland were too slow; DoD changed everything in this regard. We will see if he's healthy. Oh, and Maybe...Mabye, Berry will grace us with his presence. Also, I don't think Mahomes will be fooled by NE for a half like he was the first game. 

So, I think KC wins. However, Brady is still the GOAT and BB is still the best coach in football, so who knows.

 

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2 hours ago, jaa1025 said:

I didn't realize that New England has a bigger home/road defensive DVOA split than the Chiefs. #1 at home and #31 away.

Yep, it's crazy, biggest swing in the league. Their best eight games by defensive DVOA were all at home. Their offense doesn't play as well on the road either, though their league ranking is better than at home.

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I am hopeful that the Patriots can do something to kind of slow down that offense, even if it's only for a quarter or two, and that the Patriots offense continues to roll like it did against the Chargers. Even the Colts should have only been down one score in the 4th if it wasn't for Vinatieri's missed FG and XP.

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7 hours ago, Troy Brown said:

I hope the weather is awful awful

Supposed to be sub-10 degrees, I think.

I'm with @Starless, if the Pats win, it'll because they were able to play smash mouth football with some play action mixed in. I think Michel is going to get a monster workload. 

It's going to be a tough task on the road, at one of -if not the hardest- places to play in the NFL. 

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