Into the Offseason - 2019

[Xenos]

On 3/16/2019 at 2:55 PM, BoltsFan937 said:

So looking at the upcoming draft, I put together a list of names that will likely be available at our pick at 28.  Obviously there's no way of telling is someone falls (like Derwin last year), but assuming the draft follows the player rankings (or close to) these guys should be around our pick

Offensive Tackle - Dalton Risner, Kaleb McGary 

Interior Offensive Line - Chris Lindstrom, Erik McCoy, 

Middle Linebacker - Mack Wilson

Defensive Line - Dexter Lawrence, Jerry Tillery, Jeffery Simmons

Saftey - Nasir Adderley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Taylor Rapp

Anyone wanna bang the table for one of these guys or someone I forgot or left off the list?  I'm not crazy about Risner or McGary personally, but I know some think more highly of them than I do.  Not a huge fan of Rapp either, but I could go for anyone else on the list

Risner seems to be more of a tweener from what I hear. He may play inside at the pro level.

Adderly is more of a traditional FS, Rapp has great intelligence to make up for his lack of ideal athleticism (sounds like 2007 Weddle), while Chauncey seems more comfortable as a nickle corner than a traditional safety.

[BoltsFan937]

20 hours ago, Xenos said:

Risner seems to be more of a tweener from what I hear. He may play inside at the pro level.

Adderly is more of a traditional FS, Rapp has great intelligence to make up for his lack of ideal athleticism (sounds like 2007 Weddle), while Chauncey seems more comfortable as a nickle corner than a traditional safety.

Risner, to me (and I'm by no means a scout, just what I see), doesn't seem to have the footwork to handle speed in the NFL.  Conversely, I think McGary does have the footwork and movement skills to survive, but his lack of length is concerning and I actually think it shows in his play.  There's times where you can see him lunging forward a bit (I'm guessing to close the gap)  and he gets off balance.  

Either way, I'm beginning to think interior Oline isn't likely in the first and unless TT is just in love with a safety or corner, its going to be a lineman.  Assuming Taylor, Williams, Dillard and Ford are gone, I could live with McGary in the first (slight reach but not too egregious considering positional value).  I wouldn't even mind doubling up on Oline in the second with someone like Deiter, Jenkins, Jordan or Evans.  

[Dr LBC]

21 hours ago, Xenos said:

Risner seems to be more of a tweener from what I hear. He may play inside at the pro level.

Adderly is more of a traditional FS, Rapp has great intelligence to make up for his lack of ideal athleticism (sounds like 2007 Weddle), while Chauncey seems more comfortable as a nickle corner than a traditional safety.

Um... Weddle was plenty athletic.  He was a corner at Utah who converted to safety in the NFL.  Sub-4.5s 40, sub-4.2s short shuttle, sub-7.0s 3-cone.  I mean, he was a tad shorter and lighter, but his athleticism numbers were on par with, if not better in several cases, Eric Berry's.

And see, I don't see Rapp as a traditional FS.  His COD is below average.  Honestly, in that respect he feels a bit redundant of Phillips in that he's probably a better projecting to nickel LB than pure safety.  I know Kyle Posey loves him, but I watch Rapp's tape and I see another Barry Church (productive starter sure, but someone who is likely going to get overdrafted because the talent around him and the scheme he played in camouflaged his biggest deficiencies.  I'd honestly probably take Thornhill ahead of him, even though I think Thornhill is more in that Byron Jones mold of guy who played collegiate safety but might end up a pro boundary corner by Y3.

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, The LBC said:

Um... Weddle was plenty athletic.  He was a corner at Utah who converted to safety in the NFL.  Sub-4.5s 40, sub-4.2s short shuttle, sub-7.0s 3-cone.  I mean, he was a tad shorter and lighter, but his athleticism numbers were on par with, if not better in several cases, Eric Berry's.

And see, I don't see Rapp as a traditional FS.  His COD is below average.  Honestly, in that respect he feels a bit redundant of Phillips in that he's probably a better projecting to nickel LB than pure safety.  I know Kyle Posey loves him, but I watch Rapp's tape and I see another Barry Church (productive starter sure, but someone who is likely going to get overdrafted because the talent around him and the scheme he played in camouflaged his biggest deficiencies.  I'd honestly probably take Thornhill ahead of him, even though I think Thornhill is more in that Byron Jones mold of guy who played collegiate safety but might end up a pro boundary corner by Y3.

I was referring to Adderly as a traditional FS. Good to know further details about Rapp though.

As for Weddle, I guess I remember him differently during that draft. He seemed like a guy who got by more with his intelligence than his physical talent. Glad that he proved me wrong.

[Xenos]

2 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Risner, to me (and I'm by no means a scout, just what I see), doesn't seem to have the footwork to handle speed in the NFL.  Conversely, I think McGary does have the footwork and movement skills to survive, but his lack of length is concerning and I actually think it shows in his play.  There's times where you can see him lunging forward a bit (I'm guessing to close the gap)  and he gets off balance.  

Either way, I'm beginning to think interior Oline isn't likely in the first and unless TT is just in love with a safety or corner, its going to be a lineman.  Assuming Taylor, Williams, Dillard and Ford are gone, I could live with McGary in the first (slight reach but not too egregious considering positional value).  I wouldn't even mind doubling up on Oline in the second with someone like Deiter, Jenkins, Jordan or Evans.  

Here's McGary draft profile per Brugler. He sounds like DJ Fluker and I don't think I want to draft another DJ in the first round.

https://theathletic.com/807691/2019/02/08/pre-combine-nfl-draft-rankings-offensive-tackle-quietly-one-of-the-drafts-stronger-positions/

Quote

10. Kaleb McGary, Washington (6-7, 321, 5.08)

Fife, Wash. (Fife), RS Senior, N/A

Strengths: NFL frame with adequate length … quick out of his stance and comfortable on his feet … flexible joints to stay balanced at contact … aggressive handwork and competes with a nasty attitude … efficient on combination blocks and works well in tandem … uses his reach to latch and displace … creates surge as a run blocker to drive defenders wide … mentally and physically tough and accustomed to overcoming adversity … graduated with a degree in communications (December 2018) … durable and started 43 straight games at right tackle.

Weaknesses: Top heavy and allows his base to narrow at contact … wandering punch, exposing his chest and giving up his body … technique breaks down vs. speed, overextending at the waist … marginal balance in a phone booth … needs to better achieve angles in the run game … diagnosed with a heart arrhythmia (atrial fibrillation) as a junior in high school, which required three surgeries (not a career-threatening condition but something that requires monitoring) … played only right tackle in college.

Summary: A four-year starter at Washington, McGary worked his way into the starting rotation as a freshman and was a mainstay at right tackle for the Huskies, remaining on the right side when left tackle Trey Adams was injured. He was the 2018 Morris Trophy winner as the Pac-12’s top offensive lineman (over Washington State’s Andre Dillard), which is voted on by opposing players in the conference. McGary will occasionally labor with wide speed due to average length and feet, but he is a flexible mover and stays balanced in pass protection. Although his bad habits (specifically his tall posture and late hands) lead to mistakes, his tenacious play personality and intangibles help cover up some of his physical deficiencies. Overall, McGary’s on-field reps aren’t always pretty, but they are mostly effective, using his mobility and play strength to tie up edge defenders, projecting as an NFL right tackle ready to compete for immediate starting reps.

 

[Dr LBC]

Risner - he's not a straight comp to him, but it's close enough - is this year's Forrest Lamp.  He can likely play 3-4 OL spots; he's not an ideal fit for all of them, but he can play them and likely at a high level at any of them if he gets adequate reps to get acclimated.  If the FO and coaching staff were fans of Lamp (I'd say that's pretty clearly a "yes") as a prospect, then they're going to similarly like Risner.  The real question becomes whether Risner is redundant of Lamp.  Two lines of thinking would suggest that shouldn't make a big difference even if true, because Lamp has already burned multiple seasons without getting onto the field and versatility is versatility, just because two players are similar doesn't mean they can't play together - particularly if one of their shared similarities is versatility.

[BoltsFan937]

4 hours ago, The LBC said:

Risner - he's not a straight comp to him, but it's close enough - is this year's Forrest Lamp.  He can likely play 3-4 OL spots; he's not an ideal fit for all of them, but he can play them and likely at a high level at any of them if he gets adequate reps to get acclimated.  If the FO and coaching staff were fans of Lamp (I'd say that's pretty clearly a "yes") as a prospect, then they're going to similarly like Risner.  The real question becomes whether Risner is redundant of Lamp.  Two lines of thinking would suggest that shouldn't make a big difference even if true, because Lamp has already burned multiple seasons without getting onto the field and versatility is versatility, just because two players are similar doesn't mean they can't play together - particularly if one of their shared similarities is versatility.

I think we're after a right tackle at least and in best case scenario a left tackle for the future.  I don't think Lamp was ever viewed as a tackle (by us) as I believe he was slotted fairly quickly at guard and I thought I heard some rumblings about playing center?  Either way, I think TT wants to upgrade that right tackle spot, so unless he believes Risner or McGary can man that position I don't think either one of them will be the pick.  I might be in the minority here, but I feel there's a significant drop off between the top 4 tackles and the next tier down.  I don't expect it to happen, but if one of those guys, and I'm talking Taylor, Dillard, Williams or Ford get close to us, I think we should make that trade up for one of them.  

[Dr LBC]

11 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think we're after a right tackle at least and in best case scenario a left tackle for the future.  I don't think Lamp was ever viewed as a tackle (by us) as I believe he was slotted fairly quickly at guard and I thought I heard some rumblings about playing center?  Either way, I think TT wants to upgrade that right tackle spot, so unless he believes Risner or McGary can man that position I don't think either one of them will be the pick.  I might be in the minority here, but I feel there's a significant drop off between the top 4 tackles and the next tier down.  I don't expect it to happen, but if one of those guys, and I'm talking Taylor, Dillard, Williams or Ford get close to us, I think we should make that trade up for one of them.  

Depends on how much faith you have in your OL coach and a particular prospects ability to clean up some technical flaws while learning on the job.  Rookie tackles - by-and-large - are going to make mistakes, that's just the way it is, particularly with the fact the way a majority of college offenses have trended in terms of the blocking schemes used, as well as the fact that OL are the position above just about any other that need as many hands-on, contact reps as you can get, and the NFLPA has sought to limit those reps (believing it will curtail injuries) in each of the last two CBA bargaining sessions.  There are guys with tools who need some polish and can likely learn on the job, but are going to have some hiccups along the way like Tytus Howard, Bobby Evans (clean up his handwork and he's a starting LT in the league, I'm pretty confident in that assessment), and Dennis Daley.  And there are guys who aren't quite as toolsy, but can get the job done and have enough tools (in comparison to others starting in the league) to project well at RT and project to at least have a chance to play LT (even if it's as a stop-gap until a more suitable/higher-ceiling guy can be acquired) like the two Wisconsin boys (Dieter and Edwards) and Tyree St. Louis

[Xenos]

20 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

I think we're after a right tackle at least and in best case scenario a left tackle for the future.  I don't think Lamp was ever viewed as a tackle (by us) as I believe he was slotted fairly quickly at guard and I thought I heard some rumblings about playing center?  Either way, I think TT wants to upgrade that right tackle spot, so unless he believes Risner or McGary can man that position I don't think either one of them will be the pick.  I might be in the minority here, but I feel there's a significant drop off between the top 4 tackles and the next tier down.  I don't expect it to happen, but if one of those guys, and I'm talking Taylor, Dillard, Williams or Ford get close to us, I think we should make that trade up for one of them.  

If Risner can fix one of the guard positions, and Lamp lives up to his potential then Rivers will be fine even with Tevi at RT. A guy that moves as well as River does in the pocket just needs that to thrive.

[BoltsFan937]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

If Risner can fix one of the guard positions, and Lamp lives up to his potential then Rivers will be fine even with Tevi at RT. A guy that moves as well as River does in the pocket just needs that to thrive.

Here's the thing though, if you're drafting Risner to play inside, why wouldn't we just draft Lindstrom?  Or draft a guy like McCoy who could play a guard spot then take over at center when Pouncey moves on?  

[BoltsFan937]

10 hours ago, The LBC said:

Depends on how much faith you have in your OL coach and a particular prospects ability to clean up some technical flaws while learning on the job.  Rookie tackles - by-and-large - are going to make mistakes, that's just the way it is, particularly with the fact the way a majority of college offenses have trended in terms of the blocking schemes used, as well as the fact that OL are the position above just about any other that need as many hands-on, contact reps as you can get, and the NFLPA has sought to limit those reps (believing it will curtail injuries) in each of the last two CBA bargaining sessions.  There are guys with tools who need some polish and can likely learn on the job, but are going to have some hiccups along the way like Tytus Howard, Bobby Evans (clean up his handwork and he's a starting LT in the league, I'm pretty confident in that assessment), and Dennis Daley.  And there are guys who aren't quite as toolsy, but can get the job done and have enough tools (in comparison to others starting in the league) to project well at RT and project to at least have a chance to play LT (even if it's as a stop-gap until a more suitable/higher-ceiling guy can be acquired) like the two Wisconsin boys (Dieter and Edwards) and Tyree St. Louis

Glad you mentioned Evans, I like him a lot.   I also like the Wisconsin guys - Edwards and Deiter.  I have to admit from what I've seen, I'm not a big fan of either Howard or Daley and honestly I haven't seen St.Louis to even comment.  Really hard to handicap it this year considering our needs and draft position, but I agree with one of your above posts, I'd be surprised if this draft wasn't heavy on the lines - both sides

 

Edited March 21, 2019 by BoltsFan937

[BoltsFan937]

Philon to the Cardinals 2yrs/10 million with 5 million guaranteed.  That's a head scratcher considering what we gave Mebane, would've thought Mebane's money would be better spent on Philon?  Hard to spend 4 years developing a guy and right when he's putting it together watch him walk out the door for 2yrs/10 million

[Xenos]

20 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Here's the thing though, if you're drafting Risner to play inside, why wouldn't we just draft Lindstrom?  Or draft a guy like McCoy who could play a guard spot then take over at center when Pouncey moves on?  

We drafted a center last year in the 5h (Quessenberry) and he was behind Pouncey all year. As for not just drafting Lindstrom, that may still happen. Certain teams do value versatility. Additionally, some OL are just better inside ie. Zach Martin (tackle in college but guard in the NFL).

[Xenos]

7 hours ago, BoltsFan937 said:

Philon to the Cardinals 2yrs/10 million with 5 million guaranteed.  That's a head scratcher considering what we gave Mebane, would've thought Mebane's money would be better spent on Philon?  Hard to spend 4 years developing a guy and right when he's putting it together watch him walk out the door for 2yrs/10 million

Well they don't play the same position. And all this means is that Justin Jones is now going to be the 3 Tech, while we draft a 1 Tech to play behind Mebane. Philon was also not necessarily a scheme fit for Bradley's defense. He's a decent pass rushing specialist on obvious pass rushing downs but was a complete liability against the run. He  may do better in Arizona as a 34 DE.

[BoltsFan937]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

Well they don't play the same position. And all this means is that Justin Jones is now going to be the 3 Tech, while we draft a 1 Tech to play behind Mebane. Philon was also not necessarily a scheme fit for Bradley's defense. He's a decent pass rushing specialist on obvious pass rushing downs but was a complete liability against the run. He  may do better in Arizona as a 34 DE.

I guess I'll trust the coaching staff on this one.  They've spent 4 years with him, I'm guessing if they felt he was worth the money, they would have matched or bettered the Cardinals offer.  I know they don't play the same position, and I figured Philon would be in the rotation with Jones.  My point was more, the guys that play Mebane's position usually don't get paid much (run stuffer in a passing league blah blah blah).  So I thought we would have re-signed Philon and signed a run stuffer on the cheap