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NinerNation21

Mock Offseason 1.0

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This is my first shot at a mock offseason. This will most likely change quite a bit once the offseason rolls on. Also, I took a shot at contextualizing my contracts by providing details, don't get hung up on the numbers, I'm just taking my best guess to make this a little more detailed. Pick away!

Resign

Robbie Gould K - 2 years 6 million (3 mil AAV) 

Mike Person OG - 2 years 4 million (2 mil AAV)

Mark Nzeocha OLB - 2 years 2 million (1 mil AAV)

Raheem Mostert RB - 3 years 3 million (1 mil AAV)

Bradley Pinion P - 3 years 3 million (1 mil AAV) 

Greg Mabin 1 year ERFA tender 

Elijah Lee ILB - 1 year ERFA tender

 

Extensions

Arik Armstead DE - 3 years 15 million (5 mil AAV)

I'm sure this is a little unpopular, but he's a very valuable run-stopping DE. I don't think anyone is looking at Armstead as the former first-round pass rusher, he's now firmly a run stopping DE with a little pass rushing ability. He's due 9 million this year on his fifth year. By extending and giving him 5 million a year on average, we save at least 4 million in 2019.

 

Release: 21.4 million in savings, including Armstead’s extension

Pierre Garcon WR - 1 million in savings

Garry Gilliam OT - 5 million in savings

Malcolm Smith OLB - 1 million in savings

Earl Mitchell DT - 3 million in savings

Cassius Marsh DE - 4 million in savings

Dekota Watson DE - 1.5 million in savings

Erik Magnuson OG/C - 600k in savings

Brock Coyle ILB - 1.4 million in savings

 

Free Agent Signings

Anthony Barr OLB - 4 years 32 million (8 million AAV) - I gave a sizable contract to Barr because of his versatility and ability to be a 3-down LB. I see Barr and Warner in coverage in both base and nickel with Barr having the ability to blitz when needed.

Jason McCourty CB - 3 years 18 million (6 million AAV) - Despite his age (32), he's still one of the top cover corners available. We don't need to draft another corner, we need someone who is a reliable starting corner who can help lock down one side of the field. 

Earl Thomas FS - 4 years 40 million (10 million AAV) - Thomas fits a dire need of ours. the Niners' pass coverage, more specifically, the secondary was the absolute worst last season. I still like Colbert, but he's shown that he's not ready to be a full-time starter, Tartt can't stay healthy, and Harris is a late round draft pick coming off of a serious injury. A top-notch starting safety is sorely needed.  

Ray-Ray Armstrong OLB - 2 years 3 million (1.5 million AAV) - I'm bringing Ray-Ray back to serve as a back-up LB and special teams contributor. I like his coverage ability and with signing Barr, drafting a rookie to a contract as long as his just doesn't make sense. 

Sam Young OT - 2 years 3 million (1.5 AAV) - Young over Gilliam is not only an upgrade in performance but also costs less. He's unspectacular, but he serves as a back-up at both tackle positions. 

 

Draft

*Traded #2 pick to Giants for 1st, 2nd, 5th, 2020 1st, and 2020 4th

**Traded 2nd round pick to Browns for 2nd and 2020 2nd

First Round, Pick 6: Josh Allen EDGE Kentucky* - Allen fills an obvious need. He's a dynamic pass rusher with multiple moves to get to the QB. Niners' pass defense was horrible and Allen will help give corners some help by reducing the QB's decision time in the pocket.  

Second Round, Pick 37: Kelvin Harmon WR N.C. State* - There are other, more dynamic and athletic WRs available, but Harmon is a very polished WR with excellent size (6'3 210) and great hands. He fits more of the possession WR role, but with Goodwin and Pettis stretching the field, the Niners need someone who can make tough catches and work the middle of the field.

Second Round, Pick 49: Oshane Ximines EDGE Old Dominion** - While the Niners' pass rush improved modestly, it still needs speed rushers on the outside to clean up the interior penetration. With the depth of pass rushers in this draft and the huge need for talent, doubling up makes a lot of sense.

Third Round, Pick 67: Michael Jordan OG/C Ohio State - I love Jordan's versatility and athletism. He's started at guard and center during his career and has the body type to play tackle (6'6 310). He's essentially Alex Boone but more athletic and not as strong. He has the skill set and body of work to take over a starting guard spot by his second year. 

Fourth Round, Pick 98: Josh Oliver TE San Jose State - This might seem like a stretch, but Oliver's pass-catching ability would pair nicely with Kittle for the next few years. Traditionally, the third TE on the roster is more of a blocking TE, but with Oliver's talent, it's too hard to pass up taking him while thinking back to the days of Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker making life hell for defenses.

Fifth Round, Pick 132: Joe Giles-Harris ILB Duke* - Harris is a very accomplished and well-rounded LB. He comes in taking Coyle's role (for now), but will challenge Elijah Lee for playing time behind Warner. Harris is great at playing the run and can cover some, too.

Sixth Round, Pick 163: Lukas Dennis FS Boston College - While Dennis is not the biggest guy in the world (5'11 195), he's a very skilled and accomplished safety. He was hurt most of 2018 and didn't impress after lighting up college football in 2017. We're buying low on a guy who could be a ball-hawking FS while sitting behind one of the best to play the game in Earl Thomas. 

Seventh Round, Pick 194: Zach Bailey OG/OT South Carolina - Bailey's versatility is very intriguing. He's not the most skilled blocker, but has been a starter for a few years in the SEC and held his own. He's the kind of late-round flyer to take based on his versatility to play multiple positions. 

 

Depth Chart

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo | Nick Mullens

RB: Jerick McKinnon | Matt Breida | Raheem Mostert

FB: Kyle Juszczyk

WR: Marquise Goodwin | Dante Pettis | Kelvin Harmon | Trent Taylor | Kendrick Bourne | Richie James

TE: George Kittle | Garrett Celek | Josh Oliver

LT: Joe Staley | Sam Young

LG: Laken Tomlinson | Josh Garnett

C: Weston Richburg | Michael Jordan

RG: Mike Person | Michael Jordan | Zach Bailey

RT: Mike McGlinchey | Sam Young


LE: Arik Armstead | Solomon Thomas | Kentavious Street

DT: DeForest Buckner | Sheldon Day | Jullian Taylor

DT: D.J. Jones

RE: Josh Allen | Ronald Blair | Oshane Ximines

OLB: Anthony Barr | Ray-Ray Armstrong | Mark Nzeocha

ILB: Fred Warner | Elijah Lee | Joe Giles-Harris

Outside CB: Richard Sherman | Jason McCourty | Ahkello Witherspoon | Tarvarious Moore

Nickle CB: K’wuan Williams | D.J. Reed

FS: Earl Thomas | Adrian Colbert

SS: Jaquiski Tartt | Marcell Harris


K: Robbie Gould

P: Bradley Pinion

LS: Colin Holba

 

Practice Squad

Jeff Wilson RB

Lukas Dennis FS

Greg Mabin CB

Jack Hangan QB

Terrell Williams FS

J.P Flynn OT

Emmanuel Mosley CB

Ross Dwelley TE

Steve Dunbar WR

Edited by NinerNation21

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Love the draft, and adding ET and even Barr to a degree. Great job, I’d like to see a big body at NT we can trust to stop the run in the middle, especially with Barr and Warner our two off ball LBs being the more athletic type than thumpers but that’s just nitpicking a tad. Also not sure McCourty leaves NE but I like the thought behind it.

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I dont think anyone around these parts would complain if that is how our offseason went.

My only nitpick is no UGA players ;)

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10 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

Cassius Marsh DE - 4 million in savings

Quit reading here. 

 

:P j/k

Yeah overall, I'm good with this whole thing (though I do want to have Marsh stay and compete for SAM)

I like the FAs enough, the draft picks I'm up to speed on, and the position priorities. Well done. 

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1 hour ago, Chrissooner49er said:

The only thing that sticks out to me? Not so sure Josh Allen will be at pick #6.

I thought about this, but I rationalized it by creating this mock draft:

1. Cardinals: Nick Bosa

2. Giants (through Niners): Dwayne Haskins

3. Jets: Jonah Williams

4. Raiders: Quinnin Williams

5. Bucs: Greedy Williams

6. 49ers (through Giants): Josh Allen

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On 1/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, NinerNation21 said:

Extensions

Arik Armstead DE - 3 years 15 million (5 mil AAV)

I'm sure this is a little unpopular, but he's a very valuable run-stopping DE. I don't think anyone is looking at Armstead as the former first-round pass rusher, he's now firmly a run stopping DE with a little pass rushing ability. He's due 9 million this year on his fifth year. By extending and giving him 5 million a year on average, we save at least 4 million in 2019.

Honestly, for anyone whom saw him play this year, I think that they are fine with it. He had his best year this year. You can make a case for cutting him, and you can make a case for extending him. The least logical thing in my opinion is having him just play on the option. 

 

On 1/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, NinerNation21 said:

Release: 21.4 million in savings, including Armstead’s extension

Pierre Garcon WR - 1 million in savings

Garry Gilliam OT - 5 million in savings

Malcolm Smith OLB - 1 million in savings

Earl Mitchell DT - 3 million in savings

Cassius Marsh DE - 4 million in savings

Dekota Watson DE - 1.5 million in savings

Erik Magnuson OG/C - 600k in savings

Brock Coyle ILB - 1.4 million in savings

Most of these are in line with my cuts as well. Mags will likely get cut, but he's not someone I'm cutting just to cut at this point but because he loses out a competition. Watson may be a guy that sticks around, not sure. He can play the SAM spot, and he't typically pretty good on special teams. 

 

On 1/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, NinerNation21 said:

Robbie Gould K - 2 years 6 million (3 mil AAV) 

Mike Person OG - 2 years 4 million (2 mil AAV)

Mark Nzeocha OLB - 2 years 2 million (1 mil AAV)

Raheem Mostert RB - 3 years 3 million (1 mil AAV)

Bradley Pinion P - 3 years 3 million (1 mil AAV) 

Greg Mabin 1 year ERFA tender 

Elijah Lee ILB - 1 year ERFA tender

I'm up in the air on Pinion, I really don't mind if we bring him back or go elsewhere. I'm actually going to be pretty interested in what type of deal that Person gets. I mentioned in the free agent thread that if we re-signed him, I thought it would be at a bigger price tag than most think. I'm curious if he gets something close to 2/8 (not that it matters for anything in this regard, more or less just making conversation because I'm intrigued by what happens with him). That number is almost exactly what I had pegged for Mostert - It seems crazy when you think of third and fourth string running backs, but I honestly believe he's worth that. Nzeocha I have been back and forth on, but at this point, I think I'm just letting him go. He's already like 28 years old. I get that he's a solid special teamer, but I think the team is set up really well on special teams, and that's what mid / late round draft choices are for. I don't really see a lot of upside with keeping him around. 

On 1/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, NinerNation21 said:

Free Agent Signings

Anthony Barr OLB - 4 years 32 million (8 million AAV) - I gave a sizable contract to Barr because of his versatility and ability to be a 3-down LB. I see Barr and Warner in coverage in both base and nickel with Barr having the ability to blitz when needed.

Jason McCourty CB - 3 years 18 million (6 million AAV) - Despite his age (32), he's still one of the top cover corners available. We don't need to draft another corner, we need someone who is a reliable starting corner who can help lock down one side of the field. 

Earl Thomas FS - 4 years 40 million (10 million AAV) - Thomas fits a dire need of ours. the Niners' pass coverage, more specifically, the secondary was the absolute worst last season. I still like Colbert, but he's shown that he's not ready to be a full-time starter, Tartt can't stay healthy, and Harris is a late round draft pick coming off of a serious injury. A top-notch starting safety is sorely needed.  

Ray-Ray Armstrong OLB - 2 years 3 million (1.5 million AAV) - I'm bringing Ray-Ray back to serve as a back-up LB and special teams contributor. I like his coverage ability and with signing Barr, drafting a rookie to a contract as long as his just doesn't make sense. 

Sam Young OT - 2 years 3 million (1.5 AAV) - Young over Gilliam is not only an upgrade in performance but also costs less. He's unspectacular, but he serves as a back-up at both tackle positions. 

I don't mind Barr, though I prefer Mosley just so that we can move Warner to WILL, but Barr, even coming off a bad year, would be a nice add. 

That contract for Thomas is way too low. Part of the issue with him and Seattle was the money. He's not going to take less money than Reshad Jones who signed 12m/yr two years ago. There's really no reason that he shouldn't reset the safety market at this point - he's still playing at an insanely high level. I think on a 4 year deal, you're looking at something closer to 4/56. Eric Berry currently tops the safety market at 13/yr. 

I'm really good with the draft, though like Chris, at the current point in time, really hard to see Allen there at #6, given the need of the Raiders / Jets and honestly, even the Bucs, who are moving to a 3-4 and will need a pass rusher of that type. So I think that may be a tad wishful thinking (get the trade down + the guy we want all along), but crazier things have certainly happened, and this is still very early in the draft process, so it wouldn't at all be shocking if something happened that decreased his standing, though at the current point in time, it's just hard to see. 

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2 hours ago, Forge said:

I'm up in the air on Pinion, I really don't mind if we bring him back or go elsewhere.

Finally someone who echoes my questioning on Pinion. He's far from guaranteed to be back. Bottom third of the league, really. I'll do a mock offseason where P is a major point of focus. And LS. Don't want that bum Kyle Nelson no more!! And as much as I want Gould back, does he want to be back?

Major special teams overhaul, guys. If we stay pat, I sense a revolt. Riots in the streets of the Bay area. We haven't seen anything quite like it since Ferguson.

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6 minutes ago, rudyZ said:

Finally someone who echoes my questioning on Pinion. He's far from guaranteed to be back. Bottom third of the league, really. I'll do a mock offseason where P is a major point of focus. And LS. Don't want that bum Kyle Nelson no more!! And as much as I want Gould back, does he want to be back?

Major special teams overhaul, guys. If we stay pat, I sense a revolt. Riots in the streets of the Bay area. We haven't seen anything quite like it since Ferguson.

Honestly, I was mildly surprised he made the team last year. I really thought that we were going to go with Locke. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Honestly, I was mildly surprised he made the team last year. I really thought that we were going to go with Locke. 

Yeah, I was 60/40 leaning towards Pinion myself. I did think he'd be the guy, but I was far from certain of it. And I liked the idea of throwing a lefty in there. Reversed spin on the ball, might get us a couple of muffs. But all our decisions were geared towards getting the fewest turnovers possible, so the FO really nailed it. Next year, if we get a mediocre amount of turnovers, we'll be amazed by the progress!

There's no one exciting in the draft, as far as I know. There doesn't seem to be anyone exciting in free agency either, unless someone gets cut. Hopefully Andy Lee gets released, and he comes back, so my #4 jersey can be relevant again.

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12 hours ago, Forge said:
On 1/15/2019 at 8:27 PM, NinerNation21 said:

Extensions

Arik Armstead DE - 3 years 15 million (5 mil AAV)

I'm sure this is a little unpopular, but he's a very valuable run-stopping DE. I don't think anyone is looking at Armstead as the former first-round pass rusher, he's now firmly a run stopping DE with a little pass rushing ability. He's due 9 million this year on his fifth year. By extending and giving him 5 million a year on average, we save at least 4 million in 2019.

Honestly, for anyone whom saw him play this year, I think that they are fine with it. He had his best year this year. Honestly, you can make a case for cutting him, and you can make a case for extending him. The least logical thing in my opinion is having him just play on the option. 

Why would Armstead sign this extension? It makes much more sense for him to just play on the option then sign a new deal in 2020 for >2 mil per.  

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Quote
  • Release: 21.4 million in savings, including Armstead’s extension

Pierre Garcon WR - 1 million in savings

Garry Gilliam OT - 5 million in savings

Malcolm Smith OLB - 1 million in savings

Earl Mitchell DT - 3 million in savings

Cassius Marsh DE - 4 million in savings

Dekota Watson DE - 1.5 million in savings

Erik Magnuson OG/C - 600k in savings

Brock Coyle ILB - 1.4 million in savings

 

Free Agent Signings

Anthony Barr OLB - 4 years 32 million (8 million AAV) 

Jason McCourty CB - 3 years 18 million (6 million AAV)

Earl Thomas FS - 4 years 40 million (10 million AAV) 

Ray-Ray Armstrong OLB - 2 years 3 million (1.5 million AAV)

Sam Young OT - 2 years 3 million (1.5 AAV) 

I'm a big fan of these moves (except I'd keep Watson and Gilliam but nbd). Barr, McCourty, and Thomas are huge investments into our defense but I support the movement. The money overall seems pretty off but who really knows, and as long as we sign them I'll never be excessively critical of a Marathe negotiated contract. Love Ray-Ray coming back btw but I though this is the same staff that released him. 

Still doing research on the draft so I cant really comment but I LOVE the trade down idea. a 2020 1st from NY! Thats good as gold. I'd love getting more draft capital this year, or maybe we just ball out on undrafted signees again. 

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1 hour ago, 48 1/2ers said:

Why would Armstead sign this extension? It makes much more sense for him to just play on the option then sign a new deal in 2020 for >2 mil per.  

Because the option is guaranteed only for injury. If he doesn't sign it, he gets cut. 3/15 may be slightly light, but that's around what liuget and Kyle Williams make, what Michael Johnson makes. 

Guys like Vinny Curry, sheard make more; between 7.5-8.5, but sheard rushes the passer. Curry would probably be a solid comparable tbh I'm terms of what they do production wise but do would Kyle Williams. So that's 5-7.5 m. 

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1 hour ago, 48 1/2ers said:

except I'd keep Watson and Gilliam

Why would you keep Gilliam at five million dollars when you can just pay Coleman 700k? They are both pretty mediocre and Gilliam gets nicked up; Coleman is younger, much cheaper. Gilliam is one of the absolute no brainer cuts on this roster iyam. There's no reason to pay that dude five Mill

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6 hours ago, Forge said:

Why would you keep Gilliam at five million dollars when you can just pay Coleman 700k? They are both pretty mediocre and Gilliam gets nicked up; Coleman is younger, much cheaper. Gilliam is one of the absolute no brainer cuts on this roster iyam. There's no reason to pay that dude five Mill

Yea cutting Gilliam and Mitchell while letting Pinion and Gould leave (while I don’t want to I’m just reading the tea leaves with the information you guys shared with me) would give us another 10 million plus. Especially if we brought in a rookie K and P.

Not as if we need the money but I wish we could get rid of Malcolm Smith and Garnett as that would give us another 6 plus million for players who are a liability when on the field. Unfortunately their cap hits if released now would be equally as high.

Edited by Fureys49ers

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