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2019 Draft: Targets


G08

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I'll be honest... I'm less and less enamored with the RB class in general after the combine, and kind of feel like we're trying to force a pick.

Henderson was, and probably still is my #1 guy... but he's a breakaway speed guy without measurable breakaway speed...

Sanders wasn't high on my board because of his tape, and I'm astonished he tested out as well as he did athletically.... I think he gets way over-drafted, however because of how thin the RB pool is... and I'd only begrudgingly spend our late 3rd on him via lack of better options. His film just doesn't match his combine to me....

Singletary isn't fast enough to be of any use to me.

Montgomery is just as slow, but at least of some value fighting for short yardage.... he's almost devoid of explosive potential, however.

Hill isn't big enough to be more than a situational guy, like Cohen...  I wouldn't want to spend earlier than a 5th on a limited role player.

 

Right now, my preference is almost leaning towards gambling on Bryce Love and Darwin Thompson mid-late rounds.... then potentially drafting a RB next year very early depending on what we see from them (and likely keeping Howard this year as well).  Our draft capital is simply better spent on positions of strength for the draft pool, like WR/TE or other positions of need like Edge/ DB..... Thompson feels like he can fill Mizzell's role in the offense well, and also more accurately back up Cohen as a scat back type.... Love would get usage behind Howard as the potential home run threat, but with a strong rotation from Howard/Cohen/Thompson to protect his health if need be.... We can evaluate what we have in Love this year, and then look for better RB1 options if need be next year, when we actually have an early round pick to spend on one.

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On 3/3/2019 at 6:56 PM, AZBearsFan said:

Could be that in 2017 Parkey was pretty much money in the bank from 45 and in. Had that been the case in 2018 he wouldn’t be gone. 

A year in balmy 80 degree Miami wouldn't have told Pace much about Parkey's ability to drive a ball through the wind but his year in Cleveland might have.

There he was even less accurate at 40 yards and over (12/7/58.3%) than he was in Chicago (12/9/75%).  In fact his 75% accuracy from 40-49 yards this year is better than his career average 27/18/66.7% from that distance prior to our signing him.

So again I ask, with only 70.8% career accuracy ratio beyond 39 yards what made Pace believe Parkey had a strong and accurate leg?  A wind cutter.

I think we can all admit this was a bad deal for us but there were prior indications it might be.  That was the basis for my post.

 

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2 hours ago, Epyon said:

Right now, my preference is almost leaning towards gambling on Bryce Love and Darwin Thompson mid-late rounds.... then potentially drafting a RB next year very early depending on what we see from them (and likely keeping Howard this year as well).  Our draft capital is simply better spent on positions of strength for the draft pool, like WR/TE or other positions of need like Edge/ DB..... Thompson feels like he can fill Mizzell's role in the offense well, and also more accurately back up Cohen as a scat back type.... Love would get usage behind Howard as the potential home run threat, but with a strong rotation from Howard/Cohen/Thompson to protect his health if need be.... We can evaluate what we have in Love this year, and then look for better RB1 options if need be next year, when we actually have an early round pick to spend on one.

This is a possibility I've also posted on.  If the back or backs Pace sees as his guys aren't still on the board late in three, or he hasn't found a way to move up to grab one as he did with Miller last year, he may change his priorities and fill other spots early and wait 'til round five or even seven to draft a RB.

He may also pick up a vet FA prior to the draft as a complimentary back to Howard and give himself more flexibility in the draft.

The tip off may be how Pace values Howard and whether or not he can get that value for him in trade with a high enough pick to replace him with a potential starter.   David Haugh pleaded his case for keeping Howard in his column today.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-jordan-howard-trade-talk-haugh-20190304-story.html

We already know Nagy favors a different type of RB but if Pace feels he has other priorities for what little cap space he has there's a decent chance he'll simply decide to supplement Howard with a vet FA or a rookie for another year and look to prioritize a top RB in 2020 instead.

This may not be an ideal outcome but it is one possible outcome.

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FWIW here's what Pace and Nagy are saying about the RB position right now.

What’s the secret to finding a running back gem late in the draft? Bears GM Ryan Pace could test his skills

 
 

The running backs filed into the ballroom in groups at the Indiana Convention Center on Thursday afternoon, 16 climbing on to podiums and another 12 with lower profiles taking seats at round tables to address small crowds of media members.

The room buzzed as the prospects rattled off the goals they had set and teams they had met this week at the NFL combine.

One Bears mission this week as they prepare for a draft in which they have no first- or second-round picks is to sift through the noise to see if any could be midround gold.

General manager Ryan Pace has done it before.

Among Pace’s triumphs in his first four drafts were running back Tarik Cohen and safety Eddie Jackson as fourth-round picks and running back Jordan Howard and safety Adrian Amos as fifth-round picks.

Now, with Howard coming off a down season and entering his contract year, Pace must consider if and how to find another running back in that range.

“It’s sometimes no different than the safety position,” Pace said. “Running back is such an instinctive position. As scouts sometimes we can get enamored with height/weight/speed, when really that position starts with instincts and vision. We always have to be mindful of that and not overlooking that.”

Pace isn’t the only one to find successful running backs beyond the first two rounds.

Of the top 15 players in rushing yards in 2018, six were drafted in the first round, three in the second and five in the third through seventh rounds. The other, the Broncos’ Phillip Lindsay, went undrafted out of Colorado but became a Pro Bowl selection his rookie season.

Many of the biggest names — Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley — were first-rounders.

But the 2017 draft class is a prime example of what type of player can slip to the third round and beyond. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt and James Conner were selected at Nos. 67, 86 and 105, respectively. Fourteen picks later, Pace picked Cohen.

The Seahawks selected Chris Carson in the seventh round, 249th overall, and he had a breakout second season with 1,151 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry and nine touchdowns.

Underuse, overuse, injuries, character issues and concerns about lack of competition at small programs are just a few reasons players might slip.

“The list of running backs and receivers is so vast that guys can get mixed in and their storylines can be hidden,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Thursday. “Chris was a fantastic story. He ran the ball, like, 82 times his senior year (at Oklahoma State). There wasn’t a lot to go on. You just had to dig it out, figure it out and take a shot at him. Because he didn’t have all of the years of play time to back up the evaluation. There are a lot of guys like that.

“Sometimes you hit it and sometimes you don’t. Chris was a great pickup for us. He played just like we hoped he would. When you saw him on film, you could see glimpses of his great toughness and acceleration and explosive style. It carried over.”

Pace and Bears coach Matt Nagy have shied from detailing their exact evaluations of what went wrong in their running game in 2018, and neither has placed the blame solely on Howard. Both noted Wednesday they thought there was improvement as the season progressed.

But Nagy was happy to detail what type of running back would fit well in his offense and said he’s having fun sorting through the droves of prospects to find one.

“In this offense, you want to be able to have a guy that has really good vision that can make guys miss,” Nagy said. “And at the same time, there's that balance of being a hybrid, being able to make things happen in the pass game, too, but yet to where you're not one-dimensional. That's not easy.”

Pace said the Bears already had talked with four or five running backs by Tuesday night, noting the interview process helped them evaluate players’ personalities, football intelligence and backgrounds.

The players’ mission is to make their potential bosses believe they’re ready for success no matter where they’re picked.

“I love being the underdog,” said Washington State’s James Williams, a potential mid- to late-round running back who said he had met with the Bears. “I’ve been the underdog all my life. … When I get counted out, I feel like I perform better.”

Williams’ 83 catches for 613 yards as a junior led NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah to list him as a potential late fit for the Bears. Jeremiah and ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. also noted a potential Bears fit with Penn State’s Miles Sanders.

Sanders rattled off Kamara, Conner and Hunt as proof that draft position doesn’t necessarily affect a career.

“I don’t think it matters what round you get,” Sanders said. “If you take it as your foot in the door, you work and get to the second contract. That’s the goal. … If you come in and produce in the league, you belong in the league.”

ckane@chicagotribune.com

Twitter @ChiTribKane

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I still fully expect us to take a RB very early in this draft...however if it doesn't happen and we don't want to spend a lot of money on a vet RB (which I doubt we will) we badly need to look at Mike Davis who seems to both fit like a glove and be out of a role in Seattle following Pete Carroll's comments...

5-9" 217lbs fits with the type of size Nagy/Reid have worked with in the past.

Quick feet and contact balance in the hole fits the running style.

34 receptions last season so can contribute in the running game.

Only 26 years old so fits with the overall youth movement of the team.

Concerns would be his injury history and that he isn't going to carry the ball 250 times a season and keep his effectiveness.

If we signed him...kept Cohen playing mostly RB then took a later round guy like Thompson, Anderson, Armstead or Scarlett then it could be a plan...I don't see it but it wouldn't be a bad plan.

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8 hours ago, Epyon said:

I'll be honest... I'm less and less enamored with the RB class in general after the combine, and kind of feel like we're trying to force a pick.

Henderson was, and probably still is my #1 guy... but he's a breakaway speed guy without measurable breakaway speed...

Sanders wasn't high on my board because of his tape, and I'm astonished he tested out as well as he did athletically.... I think he gets way over-drafted, however because of how thin the RB pool is... and I'd only begrudgingly spend our late 3rd on him via lack of better options. His film just doesn't match his combine to me....

Singletary isn't fast enough to be of any use to me.

Montgomery is just as slow, but at least of some value fighting for short yardage.... he's almost devoid of explosive potential, however.

Hill isn't big enough to be more than a situational guy, like Cohen...  I wouldn't want to spend earlier than a 5th on a limited role player.

 

Right now, my preference is almost leaning towards gambling on Bryce Love and Darwin Thompson mid-late rounds.... then potentially drafting a RB next year very early depending on what we see from them (and likely keeping Howard this year as well).  Our draft capital is simply better spent on positions of strength for the draft pool, like WR/TE or other positions of need like Edge/ DB..... Thompson feels like he can fill Mizzell's role in the offense well, and also more accurately back up Cohen as a scat back type.... Love would get usage behind Howard as the potential home run threat, but with a strong rotation from Howard/Cohen/Thompson to protect his health if need be.... We can evaluate what we have in Love this year, and then look for better RB1 options if need be next year, when we actually have an early round pick to spend on one.

I agree, but I think Nagy wants to or can play this style of football.  He can use slighter, faster slashing backs who are also receivers.  

Hill is Patriots White, probably better IMO. 

It is going to limit you in power football of course, but you arent getting a Barkley or an Elliot who can do both at a high level from this group.  Plus you still have Howard.

I think you can get Hill in mid rounds.  At least Hill does what he does very well.  Other guys are kind of poor man's this or that. 

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38 minutes ago, G08 said:

Travis Homer (RB - Miami) is another name to watch... I like him in the 4th or 5th but he's one of those "good at a lot of things, not great at anything" type backs.

I'd rather have a guy who looks great at something even if limited somewhere else then average at everything in Nagy's offense. 

Why I want Hill.  Give me a slasher with great speed who can catch and line up at WR. That's what I want for this scheme.  I think Hill fits that bill. 

Ideally give me Saquan Barkley or Ezequiel Elliot, great at everything, but those are top 5 picks. 

I'd even take Singletary in a pinch because he is really hard to tackle, but he has same passing game limitations as Howard and you would get same complaints about teams keying the run or ignoring him on non runs. He also lacks speed to get edge in NFL. Man he is like trying to tackle a giant ball though.  Angles are all wrong and you just kinda slide off confused why you can't grab him right.  It's weird to see.  

Cunningham and Mizzel are jack of all trades backs and they are virtually worthless because they are average.  Don't take someone just to take someone.

 

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On 3/5/2019 at 2:31 AM, Madmike90 said:

I still fully expect us to take a RB very early in this draft...however if it doesn't happen and we don't want to spend a lot of money on a vet RB (which I doubt we will) we badly need to look at Mike Davis who seems to both fit like a glove and be out of a role in Seattle following Pete Carroll's comments...

5-9" 217lbs fits with the type of size Nagy/Reid have worked with in the past.

Quick feet and contact balance in the hole fits the running style.

34 receptions last season so can contribute in the running game.

Only 26 years old so fits with the overall youth movement of the team.

Concerns would be his injury history and that he isn't going to carry the ball 250 times a season and keep his effectiveness.

If we signed him...kept Cohen playing mostly RB then took a later round guy like Thompson, Anderson, Armstead or Scarlett then it could be a plan...I don't see it but it wouldn't be a bad plan.

Davis is an interesting upside guy who has not had a big role.

I think you would need to keep Howard and or draft a backup to Davis higher than the 5th round.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Davis is an interesting upside guy who has not had a big role.

I think you would need to keep Howard and or draft a backup to Davis higher than the 5th round.

I think that could be an option if they don't love someone early...Darwin Thompson is an interesting one if he really is 5-9" and 200lbs.

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Since we've added talk about FA backs we could also sign to compliment Howard or replace him and Tevin Coleman's name has come up I though we should at least look at how Spotrac estimates his MV entering FA.  If Coleman can command this kind of deal he's not a guy we can bring in for a couple mil to supplement Howard.  This is starters money.  I don't see much chance of getting him for $2 mil a year or anywhere near that.

Calculated Market Value

Market Value

  • 4 yrs, $20,343,936
  • Avg. Salary: $5,085,984
  • NFL Rank: 331
  • RB Rank: 11

Current Contract

  • Free Agent: 2019
  • Avg. Salary: $804,843
  • NFL Rank: 1,036
  • RB Rank: 59

Comparable Players

We've selected the following players based on their age, contract status, and statistical production to compare Tevin Coleman to.

Player Length Value Avg. Salary Age When Signed
Averages 3.5 $17,887,500 $5,110,714 26
Isaiah Crowell 3 $12,000,000 $4,000,000 25
Rex Burkhead 3 $9,750,000 $3,250,000 27
Jerick McKinnon 4 $30,000,000 $7,500,000 25
Dion Lewis 4 $19,800,000 $4,950,000 27
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On 3/4/2019 at 10:23 PM, Epyon said:

I'll be honest... I'm less and less enamored with the RB class in general after the combine, and kind of feel like we're trying to force a pick.

Henderson was, and probably still is my #1 guy... but he's a breakaway speed guy without measurable breakaway speed...

Sanders wasn't high on my board because of his tape, and I'm astonished he tested out as well as he did athletically.... I think he gets way over-drafted, however because of how thin the RB pool is... and I'd only begrudgingly spend our late 3rd on him via lack of better options. His film just doesn't match his combine to me....

Singletary isn't fast enough to be of any use to me.

Montgomery is just as slow, but at least of some value fighting for short yardage.... he's almost devoid of explosive potential, however.

Hill isn't big enough to be more than a situational guy, like Cohen...  I wouldn't want to spend earlier than a 5th on a limited role player.

 

Right now, my preference is almost leaning towards gambling on Bryce Love and Darwin Thompson mid-late rounds.... then potentially drafting a RB next year very early depending on what we see from them (and likely keeping Howard this year as well).  Our draft capital is simply better spent on positions of strength for the draft pool, like WR/TE or other positions of need like Edge/ DB..... Thompson feels like he can fill Mizzell's role in the offense well, and also more accurately back up Cohen as a scat back type.... Love would get usage behind Howard as the potential home run threat, but with a strong rotation from Howard/Cohen/Thompson to protect his health if need be.... We can evaluate what we have in Love this year, and then look for better RB1 options if need be next year, when we actually have an early round pick to spend on one.

I'd add Scarlett to that list and if we add a shiftier back in FA and actually trade Howard then I'd like to look at a late power back like Alex Barnes for goal and 3rd and inches plays. He likely could be had in the 5th or 6th and I love seeing what happens when he lowers his shoulders. I couldn't remember where I heard his name before the bench press but looked him up and he was the RB who folded a Miss St defender back. I remember seeing the clip on a YouTube highlight video.  I wholeheartedly admit I love runners who punish would-be tackles. Loooove them. 

 

He is a powerful runner, I like Snell too but I still feel like he is a 3rd to early 4th guy at worse, I'm sure his pro day he will run better. 

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4 hours ago, soulman said:

If we end up taking a DB in round 3 this kid Darnell Savage from Maryland as a potential Slot CB to replace Callahan has my attention.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/darnell-savage?id=32195341-5642-6683-d1ee-77f79bcf3445

Savage would be the ideal replacement for Amos...not sure I would want him as a nickel but defos as a SS.

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