2019 Draft: Targets

[beardown3231]

8 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Anyone have thoughts on the idea of JJ Arcega-Whiteside as a potential big slot/move TE? Size is similar to Burton and he’s got elite ball skills and is a monster in the red zone. I’d love to get him matched up on safeties or LBs in the red zone and down the seam. Fits the Pace mold on character too. 

In my head I’m seeing 3rd downs with ARob and Miller outside with Burton and JJAW in the slot with Cohen in the backfield and then the same personnel with Davis in the backfield inside the red zone, and goal line packages with ARob and JJAW out wide for fade routes. 

He'd be a good pick but the odds that he's there at 87 are slim to none.

 

39 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

So I'm fine with this, lets get a James Conner in the 3rd. I also suggest we get a Tom Brady type in rd 6 just in case. 

I did some research on this a year ago and the numbers were outrageous. I looked at 2012-2016 (5 years, didn't want to look at 2017 yet because it's too early to judge) but it was something like 7% of third rounders have been "good or better" NFL players. I want to say it was like 12 out of 162 players were "good."

It's certainly going to be a challenge, but luckily Pace has had a great time in the mid to late rounds and thankfully the Bears don't need starters, simply good young players to grow with solid contributions here and there.

[G08]

On 3/31/2019 at 2:31 AM, DABEARSLCF04 said:

who's everyone's draft targets at running back? I really like Justice Hill or Miles Sanders. Might be tight to grab either with the 87th

In no particular order for me:

Miles Sanders

David Singletary

Darrell Henderson

Trayveon Williams

Devin Singletary

Devine Ozigbo

[WindyCity]

1. Darrell Henderson

2. Miles Sanders

3. Damien Harris

4. Trayveon Williams

5. David Montgomery

6. Justice Hill

7. Dexter Williams

8. Devine Ozigbo

[beardown3231]

Harris

Henderson

Sanders

Hill

Williams

Ozigbo

Williams

Montgomery

[dll2000]

4 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I did some research on this a year ago and the numbers were outrageous. I looked at 2012-2016 (5 years, didn't want to look at 2017 yet because it's too early to judge) but it was something like 7% of third rounders have been "good or better" NFL players. I want to say it was like 12 out of 162 players were "good."

It's certainly going to be a challenge, but luckily Pace has had a great time in the mid to late rounds and thankfully the Bears don't need starters, simply good young players to grow with solid contributions here and there.

Everybody looks at a 3rd round list and their eyes go to studs and think they are going to draft a guy just like that.  It's like 80-90% that you are going to get someone who isn't that good.

 

[G08]

Nice twitter thread on Singletary here:

 

[WindyCity]

8 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Everybody looks at a 3rd round list and their eyes go to studs and think they are going to draft a guy just like that.  It's like 80-90% that you are going to get someone who isn't that good.

 

It is about 45/55 getting a good player in the 3rd round with some variation for positions.

[dll2000]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

1. Darrell Henderson

2. Miles Sanders

3. Damien Harris

4. Trayveon Williams

5. David Montgomery

6. Justice Hill

7. Dexter Williams

8. Devine Ozigbo

I would bet good money, just going off recent RB history, that one of these guys ends up a really, really good player and most of rest are career back ups.

Hope Pace picks the right one.  

I would say it could be Henderson, Williams, Montgomery, Singletary (not listed) or Hill.   I am honestly not sure which one it will be.

I am personally drafting Hill in 4th or 5th round though after I draft a TE in 3rd.  If I am wrong, I am wrong.

 

[soulman]

Pace has had some nice success in the middle rounds and remember we're looking for a pick at #87 who fits a need and can contribute year one.  We don't need a front line starter here just a guy Nagy can plug in have some success with and preferably on offense rather than defense.

I believe there are still good players out there who slip because they don't fit the standards many team set.  Too short, too tall, too light, too slow, whatever yet good teams who are consistent winners find guys who fit their schemes in those middle rounds and some become core players.

Belichick is always picking late in each round and also seems to love trading back for more mid round picks or letting vets go so he can collect compensatory 3-5 round picks and he wins SBs with them.  We have some studs we just need more good football players who fit our schemes.

[beardown3231]

7 hours ago, WindyCity said:

It is about 45/55 getting a good player in the 3rd round with some variation for positions.

It's not even close to being that high

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I would bet good money, just going off recent RB history, that one of these guys ends up a really, really good player and most of rest are career back ups.

Hope Pace picks the right one.  

I would say it could be Henderson, Williams, Montgomery, Singletary (not listed) or Hill.   I am honestly not sure which one it will be.

I am personally drafting Hill in 4th or 5th round though after I draft a TE in 3rd.  If I am wrong, I am wrong.

 

All the more reason people need to adjust their expectations as to Davis’ role in 2019. He’s the odds on favorite to be our primary RB. 

[soulman]

20 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

All the more reason people need to adjust their expectations as to Davis’ role in 2019. He’s the odds on favorite to be our primary RB. 

I think both Pace and Nagy have made that pretty clear without coming right out and saying it.  Let's summarize this.

We all knew Howard was trade bait.  That was confirmed by news from the Combine that he was being shopped.  Furthermore Howard was even told he was being shopped so the trade came as no surprise to him at all and to his benefit Philly is a good fit for him whereas we weren't.

So long before FA begins Pace and Nagy know they'll need a FA RB to replace Howard regardless of when a trade finally takes place.  They have all kinds of time to review their options of who to pursue and check their price tags.  Howard's $2 mil cost would be gone and knowing they had plans to restructure both Long and Mack deals cap space was never gonna be an issue.  So within reason Nagy could have whoever he wanted and he took Davis.

We're drafting at #87 and have little or no ammo to trade up for one of the top ranked back so until further notice Davis is to be the primary back in a 3 back RBBC scheme.  The draft is stocked with 2nd tier backs who can serve as a compliment to Davis and Cohen and possibly surpass Davis as the primary back eventually but for now all we need is a sold, versatile, 3 down back to pair with Davis and Cohen and back Davis should be become injured. So.....IMHO that's our target.

Just spit balling it we'll have roughly 350-400 carries to split up between 3 primary backs and Patterson.  How that all works out I can't say but I'm betting Davis will have more than anyone else provided he plays all 16 games.  Drafting where we are I think it would be foolish to believe the plan isn't to have Davis as the principal back and Nagy and Pace seem fine with for now.  I can also see us signing an UDFA back and possible bringing in an unsigned vet to compete but for now Davis it.