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WizardHawk

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Lull period thought experiment: How would you rank the following players in terms of how important it is that the Cowboys re-sign them, and how do you expect the team to rank them?

Dak Prescott

Ezekiel Elliott

Amari Cooper

Demarcus Lawrence

Byron Jones

Jaylon Smith

La’el Collins

Edited by matt79511

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2 hours ago, matt79511 said:

Lull period thought experiment: How would you rank the following players in terms of how important it is that the Cowboys re-sign them, and how do you expect the team to rank them?

Dak Prescott

Ezekiel Elliott

Amari Cooper

Demarcus Lawrence

Byron Jones

Jaylon Smith

La’el Collins

My rank:

#1. DLaw (I think he's the 2nd best football player on the list, at the 2nd most important position in football.)

#2. Amari Cooper (You don't trade away a first round pick for a guy just to let him walk. It's pretty damn important business that we lock him up, and we don't have a choice here, like we do with everyone else.)

#3. Zeke Elliott (the best football player on the team, but doesn't play a premium position. Still he is the body blow in our boxing match, and the jab that sets up the haymaker. He has also shown the ability to knock out an opponent with out ever getting that haymaker from the passing game. Finally, he will be cheap compared to DLaw, Byron, Dak, Amari, etc... and for what we get from him.)

#4. Byron Jones (I almost ranked him over Zeke, but I didn't because I believe Byron is more product of KR than anything. He's a system guy in a good system. But he is really really good in said system. Maybe better than Sherman was? Gotta sign him.)

#5. Jaylon Smith (the last guy on the list with true superstar potential for his position. With his injury history and the nature of the LB position, I'm a little nervous to go all in. But He is already becoming one of the best LBs in the game, and we probably won't luck into another top 5 prospect falling to the second round to replace him.)

#6. Dak Prescott (He isn't going to win the super bowl for you, but he isn't going to tank your season either. He is a high end QB2 or a low tier QB1. He also hasn't had an OC willing to play to his strengths except in 2016 when they had to. He did really well in 2016. I'd personally tag him before I gave him a big time contract.)

#7. La'el Collins (Might be a true cap casualty. He isn't Lane Johnson elite but he isn't Doug Free bad either. He flashes power, and was ranked a top 32 OT in the league by PFF. Meaning if every team went through and picked one OT to start building their Oline, someone would probably make Collins their first pick. However, above average doesn't fit in with this OL. We need elite. Even the fans can't stand an OL that is just above average. If there is an area where Cowboys fans have become spoiled brats it's the OL, and this year showed that.)

 

 

 

How I expect the team rank them:

 

#1. Dak Prescott (He is the next Tom Montana Brady but better in every way.)

#2. Amari Cooper (no choice)

#3. Byron Jones (former first round pick)

#4. Zeke Elliott (former top 5 pick)

#5. DLaw (worried they won't have enough money for Dak. Maybe tagged again.)

#6. Jaylon Smith (he gets a deal. Probably team friendly.)

#7. Lael Collins (worried about having money for Dak. He walks.)

 

 

 

Edited by DaBoys

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On 2/5/2019 at 6:01 AM, DaBoys said:

"Oh but DaBoys! His leadership!"

They don't need a hype man for 10 million when you can't pay Dez 8.

Sorry to go back in this thread, but being a leader and being a hype man are two entirely different things.

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3 hours ago, matt79511 said:

Lull period thought experiment: How would you rank the following players in terms of how important it is that the Cowboys re-sign them, and how do you expect the team to rank them?

Dak Prescott

Ezekiel Elliott

Amari Cooper

Demarcus Lawrence

Byron Jones

Jaylon Smith

La’el Collins

1) Amari Cooper - You just can't make the investment of a 1st round pick, have him turn our season around, and then just let him walk. There's not a bigger no-brainer on this list.

2) Tank Lawrence - I am very worried about losing him, but I kind of expect him to hold our feet to the fire. We are at risk here, IMO.

3) Dak Prescott - This is a tough one, but in the end, I think you need to sign him before his value really goes crazy. There's not a better path to the playoffs in the near term for the Cowboys than keeping Dak as their QB.

4) Jaylon Smith - Was huge this year and should get better. If you invest that time into him, you should reap the rewards.

5) Byron - Would love to keep him around, but may be tough with everyone else.

6) Zeke - My personal opinion is that investing premium assets at RB is not a wise move. But you spend the #4 pick, and he leads the league in rushing 2 out of 3 years. You have to think they won't let him walk out of the building. 

7) La'El - It all depends on the price for him. I think they could actually re-sign him if it's reasonable, but he's probably the least important of this group.

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I’ll go...

1. DeMarcus Lawrence- At this point, he might be the best player on the entire team. He’s only the guy on the list who’s not actually under contract- ergo, the only one we’re at a serious risk of not having for 2019. This is kind of a gimme.

2. Amari Cooper- I understand the sunk cost fallacy, but you can’t really give up a first round pick for a guy to only get a year and a half out of him, one of which he’s not even cheap, right? Plus the tag number for WRs is onerous compared to other positions.

3. Dak Prescott- I get the reticence to put him this high, as his contract is more likely to destroy this team’s ability to contend in the long term than any of these others. That being said, let’s be honest- it could be worse. Much, much, worse. The dropoff from Dak to Cooper Rush is bigger than the dropoff from any of these other guys to their backups, IMO- and that’s saying something, because I just called D-Law our best player and I barely acknowledge Taco as a member of the NFL.

“We have to commit to our QB despite his flaws because he’s our guy and we’re afraid of the unknown” is bad business. But I think for our team it makes sense. The only team reasonable QBs we’ve had since Aikman were an undrafted free agent and a fourth round pick. We got effing lucky with Romo and we got effing lucky with Dak. I just don’t wanna push that luck.

4. Byron Jones

5. La’el Collins

I view both of these players as likely candidates for next year’s franchise tag. Byron only has one season of full time CB play and La’el has had an up and down career to say the least. At the same time, Byron is an All-Pro who never gets hurt and losing him would really, really bite.

La’el is, as @DaBoys said, essentially an average-to-slightly-above-average right tackle. I don’t think that means he’s not a priority. Above average offensive linemen do not grow on trees, ESPECIALLY at OT. Collins will be one of the hottest tickets on next year’s market should he reach it- especially since some teams may still project him as an All-Pro guard. Maybe we won’t give out an 8-figure AAV to a fourth offensive lineman- or maybe we see that our window is closing and just don’t have time to develop another player at the position. I’m not sure. But I like him and am a little uneasy about the idea of trying to replace him. He’s another example of a guy that we just got lucky with.

6. Ezekiel Elliott

7. Jaylon Smith

I have these guys last because we have tenders for next year on them- 5th year option for Zeke, RFA tender for Jaylon. 

Both of these guys are great players- better than the two above them, arguably. I’m just dubious about the positional value here, and especially the longevity. For the record, I have Zeke over Jaylon because I think Zeke’s style of play lends itself to a longer career. As much he excels at and seems to enjoy trucking, he does a good job of protecting himself for the most part. Jaylon is basically a human missile, that worries me a bit.

How I expect the team to rank them:

1. Dak

 

 

 

 

2. Amari

3. Lawrence

4. Zeke

5. Jaylon

6. Byron

7. La’el

Edited by matt79511

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51 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

#3. Zeke Elliott -Finally, he will be cheap compared to DLaw, Byron, Dak, Amari, etc... and for what we get from him.)

I agree with the majority of your points but I have a minor nitpick here. Should we extend both this offseason, I bet Zeke gets more than Byron. Byron might hedge his bets given his lack of professional CB experience and take something in the $12M/year range instead of holding out to be the highest paid CB. Zeke I can’t see taking less than the Gurley contract.

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33 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said:

1) Amari Cooper - You just can't make the investment of a 1st round pick, have him turn our season around, and then just let him walk. There's not a bigger no-brainer on this list.

2) Tank Lawrence - I am very worried about losing him, but I kind of expect him to hold our feet to the fire. We are at risk here, IMO.

3) Dak Prescott - This is a tough one, but in the end, I think you need to sign him before his value really goes crazy. There's not a better path to the playoffs in the near term for the Cowboys than keeping Dak as their QB.

4) Jaylon Smith - Was huge this year and should get better. If you invest that time into him, you should reap the rewards.

5) Byron - Would love to keep him around, but may be tough with everyone else.

6) Zeke - My personal opinion is that investing premium assets at RB is not a wise move. But you spend the #4 pick, and he leads the league in rushing 2 out of 3 years. You have to think they won't let him walk out of the building. 

7) La'El - It all depends on the price for him. I think they could actually re-sign him if it's reasonable, but he's probably the least important of this group.

Agree with this order. Would flip Zeke/Collins though. Simply not paying $13-15m for a RB.

Edited by WizardHawk

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3 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I agree with the majority of your points but I have a minor nitpick here. Should we extend both this offseason, I bet Zeke gets more than Byron. Byron might hedge his bets given his lack of professional CB experience and take something in the $12M/year range instead of holding out to be the highest paid CB. Zeke I can’t see taking less than the Gurley contract.

Probably right. 

 

I just think $15M for Zeke is cheaper than $15M for Byron, if that makes any sense. Basically I feel we would get all of the $15M out of Zeke and more, every season. Where as Byron, Amari, and even DLaw have a flash or two per game. 

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55 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

2. Amari Cooper- I understand the sunk cost fallacy, but you can’t really give up a first round pick for a guy to only get a year and a half out of him, one of which he’s not even cheap, right? Plus the tag number for WRs is onerous compared to other positions.

Agreed. You would never make the move in the first place if you were willing to let him walk after playing really well. 

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I should elaborate- I meant this in terms of who’s most important to sign long term *this offseason*, which is kind of a different discussion from “Who do we still want/need to be here in 2024?” It’s a little more of a cap-mechinal POV (i.e. we can save much more this year through D-Law and Cooper extensions than anyone else’s). Of course, the cap and the concept of value have everything to do with how good the players are.

Semantics. “How do you rank these dudes” is fine, obviously.

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I'm curious to see what people think each will get.

Starting points....

DLaw -[5 yr / $105M / $65m guar] - Makes him 2nd highest paid at $21m/yr avg. and is highest guaranteed money. 

Cooper - [5 yr / $88m /$46m guar] - I think DeAndre Hopkins contract is the floor, but Coop probably pushes closer to $18m/yr. 

Jones - [5 yr /$65m / $32m guar] - Not sure where to put Jones at really. This could very easily be well below his price. Trumaine Johnson got $72m and $34m guar. from NYJ last year. 

Too high? Not enough guaranteed? 

Next in line....

Dak - This is going to knock the earth off its orbit for some. 6yr / $168m / $65m guar. <From Todd Archer. I think the guaranteed money is $15-20m short.  Wait and Russell Wilson probably sets the bar in the low $30m range. 

Zeke -  The floor is Gurley yearly avg. of $14.4 and David Johnson's guaranteed money of $24.6m. Johnson's contract guarantees equal 63% of contract.  4 yr / $60m / $35m guar.  Wait and Le'Veon Bell may set the market even higher. 

Jaylon  - Not sure. K.J. Wright is a UFA and he's going to set the bar. 

La'el - I just don't see Dallas re-signing him at this point. Probably $10m/yr if they do.  

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Just spitballing here-

Lawrence: 7 years, $148M, $61M fully guaranteed at signing

Cooper: 5 years, $85M, $40M guaranteed

Jones: 5/70/33

Elliott: 6/84/30

Smith: 5/60/28

Collins: 5/56/25

Prescott: 10/291/105

I’m also gonna dispute the notion that La’el is not a priority. I understand the “you can’t pay four offensive linemen” argument but I reject it. He already counts $9.9M against the cap this year, sixth on the team if you don’t count Lee, so going from there to 10-11 a year is not that big of a stretch. Plus it’s possible they regret letting Leary walk, or at the very least can see that doing so had a detrimental effect on the offensive line.

Biggest question, of course, is if Collins is actually worth it; if he can still take the next step in his game. I just don’t think we can overlook the fact that he’s missed just one offensive snap in the last two years while Tyron, Frederick, and Martin have collectively missed almost two thousand. Even if you pay La’el, I doubt you’ll be “paying four offensive linemen” three years from now, honestly. And I think there’s a case to be made that a decent $10M/year OT is actually more valuable than an elite $12M LB or $15M RB.

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21 hours ago, ACO said:

WRs - Twill will be gone. So will Bease. I think they will keep Hurns and see what Cedric Wilson can do. He never played and he is a slot guy. They will also draft a WR. I am fine with that option knowing we will get an entire offseason with Amari and Gallup to improve. They were starting ti gel in the end so they can build off that.

I also agree they need to switch Collins and Williams. I think that will change everything for the better.

I too feel that the Cowboys will find more wide receivers in the draft and move on from Austin, Beasley, Williams and possibly Hurns. I'm also in agreement that Williams should be given the opportunity to compete for the RT position he has a lot of traits in his game that would help prevent the speed rushers to getting in the backfield and also they can't keep paying big bucks to one part of the TEAM sport. Hey I hate the Patriots organization just like the next guy but there's a team that continuously moves on from players when the demand of big money contracts arise and they pencil in another player and that player steps up to the plate and that's all about coaching and great scouting the type of player that fits the bill of a Patriot player. The Cowboys have that in Chris Richard but no one in the media is really acknowledging the great job that he did with this defense and the players he did it with. It's been all about Garrett and the small changes such as Kitna, Mooore to the TEAM. I know every one says that offense sells the NFL brand but it's the defenses that win you championships so why give this great mind of Chris Richard a chance to find a head coaching job else where. It's time for this coaching staff to get the best production out of their players that are depth players to help make a greater product on the field.

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Zeke would have to be first, he helps the offense and the defense, without him we are at best a 500 team. With him being underutilized we are still a 500 team lol.

Lawrence- premium position for a premium player but I wouldn't go breaking the bank for someone who is one toke/snort away from a year off.

Cooper, just to save face we have to pay the man. He also deserves it but the most important thing is we do not have a first round pick this year because of him. . 

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20 hours ago, DaBoys said:

 

#1. Dak Prescott (He is the next Tom Montana Brady but better in every way.)

 

 

 

 

I knew you would come around and see the light...

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