rcon14 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Time for rcon14 Mock 1.0! (crowd boos, tomatoes are thrown) So some ground-rules for this mock: For the purposes of free agency, I've used spotrac's annual predictor as a guideline for contracts and made some adjustments to those numbers. For the purposes of adding players, in both draft and free agency, I'll largely be following the thresholds that were in place under Ted Thompson because Brian Gutekunst largely followed them in 2018 (aside from Cole Madison). Now that the ground rules are laid out, let's get started! Packers Current Cap Space for 2019: 32.6M Cuts, Dead Cap, Cap Savings: Jimmy Graham, 7.33, 5.33 - Does not fit in the Shanahan system as a TE. At this point in his career, he is basically just a RZ target for fades, something that is being used less and less in the NFL. Nick Perry (June 1st), 3.3 - This is more of a move for future cap space rather than usable cap space for free agency. Injuries have ravaged him and he's just not the same player anymore. Tramon Williams, 1.625, 4.75 - Just not worth the money RFA Retained: Geronimo Allison (2nd round tender ~2M) Packers retain all ERFAs Packers do not retain any of their current UFAs aside from Bashaud Breeland at 2/14 (~6M cap hit in year one) Packers Updated Cap Space for 2019: 38M Free Agency szn... WR Tyrell Williams - 4 years/34M (Cap hit: ~6M in year one) (4.43 40, 6.74 3C) Williams is low-key one of the better options in free agency for wide receivers this year. He is not an elite wide receiver, but would be an outstanding #2. If you follow BadgerNoonan on Twitter, you'll know that Williams has long been a WROPS star. LAC has a really deep WR corps, so it's likely he reaches FA. EDGE Preston Smith - 4 years/38M (Cap hit: ~7M in year one) (80th percentile power score, 68th percentile Speed 40, 82nd percentile Agility, 90th percentile Speed 10, 60th percentile Twitch) Smith has been a bit up and down in WAS, alternating between four and eight sack seasons. His athletic profile shows a guy with a ton of physical skill, both in power and agility. I think there is real high upside with Smith, and getting him off a down year could bode really well for GB long-term. EDGE Anthony Barr - 1 year/12M (Cap hit: 12M) (50th percentile power, 63rd percentile Speed 40, 92nd percentile Agility, 30th percentile Speed 10, 93rd percentile Twitch So Barr is a weird case... He's basically been in an EDGE body with EDGE workout numbers but playing as an OBLB in either a 4-3 or 4-2-5 (nickel is essentially base now). With a softer market than he was hoping for (OBLB money isn't great), Barr decides to take a one-year "prove you can be an EDGE" deal to potentially get massive money in 2020. S Tre Boston - 2 years/6M (Cap hit: ~2.5M in year one) (4.59 40, 7.04 3C) The safety market is very depressed so I don't expect big spending for competency to be necessary. Boston is still relatively young by veteran safety standards and has been relatively productive over his career. This is by no-means a slam dunk signing, but rather just to get some competency at the safety position. TE/H-back Luke Stocker - 2 years/3.5M (Cap hit: ~1M in year one) (4.79 40, 7.03 3C) Comes in to fill the TE2 and H-back role. Post March free agency cap situation: 9.5M It's draft szn... The draft portion is subject to change heavily in the next couple months as combine number, pro-day numbers, and everything about everyone's grandparents is made public, so this is certainly preliminary.... but alas... 1.12 EDGE Jachai Polite, Florida I'm going to guess Polite is going to look very good in the Agility and Twitch formulas I laid out earlier. He reminds me a bit of Harold Landry last year, who I had a major draft-crush on. EDGE is a position where I rely heavily on the workout numbers, but the tape makes it look like a guy who is going to do quite well in the agility/bend drills. There are questions about his stoutness, but especially early on, he'll largely be used as a rotational rusher. He's the long-term plan for EDGE after Barr leaves. 1.29-32 IOL Dalton Risner, Kansas St. It's tough with IOL because their positional value pushes them down the board usually. I've run several mock simulators and Risner ends up available about 50% of the time. Come April I think there's a good chance he's gone top 25, but we'll make adjustments to that. For now, he comes in and is a day one starter at RG, giving GB one of the best OLs in the league. 2.44 TE TJ Hockenson, Iowa Hockenson seems to fit perfectly into the mold of a TE for a Shanahan system. He can play in-line but has the athleticism and hands to be a receiving weapon as well. I watched this as he torched Wisconsin's secondary this fall.There is starting to be some chatter that some like Hock more than Fant, but I expect Fant to really blow up the combine and end up going in the mid-to-late 1st. Hock is TE1 from day one. 3.75 OT David Edwards, Wisconsin Edwards was being projected as a late-1st/2nd round pick early in the season but fell due to some poorer performances. An important consideration is that Edwards played virtually the entire season injured. Edwards is likely to perform fairly well at the combine/pro-day and end up as an athletic OT that GB has coveted over the years. He won't need to play much year one if everything breaks right, but he provides a long-term succession to Bulaga at RT. 4.114 CB Isaiah Johnson, Houston Former-WR turned CB has the length and speed you look for in a CB. Is going to be a bit of a project due to lack of experience, but there is real upside here. Will probably be CB5 his rookie year (maybe CB4 if Josh Jackson moves to safety). 4.118 RB Darrell Henderson, Memphis Slippery RB. I'm of the mind that you should take a RB on day 3 pretty much every year because of how much turnover the position has and because you don't ever want to extend your RBs beyond their rookie contracts. RB3 in year one. 5.151 LB TJ Edwards, Wisconsin Highly productive college LB who is going to slip because he's not going to have great workouts. Very instinctual player that is a sure tackler. Great body control in coverage. Made several highlight reel INTs, but lacks the speed to be a good man coverage player. Likely to be a base-LB who is off the field in nickel and 3rd down situations. 6.187 DL Amani Bledsoe, Oklahoma Suspended for one year for a postive PED test, Bledsoe's frame is stereotypical for a 5T (6'5''-295). Where he ultimately goes will be heavily dependent on workout numbers as I've seen him anywhere from 4th-7th round. DL depth. 6.195 S JoJo McIntosh, Washington McIntosh fits a mold that GB definitely has targeted for the SS position: A hard hitter w/serious technique problems. A plus for McIntosh is he has played a decent amount of centerfield/free-safety, so this is less of a pure thumper in the Kentrell Brice mold. He gets thrown into the SS competition. *Packers trade 2018 7th for future 6th* Post Draft Acquisitions: FB Alec Ingold, Wisconsin The Packers are likely to have an actual FB on the roster with LeFleur, so enter in whichever random FB you want. Available cap space after draft: ~6.5M (note that Nick Perry's cap hit after June 1st is much lower, leaving GB with an extra 10M or so in cap space come training camp) Depth chart: QB: Rodgers/Kizer/Boyle RB: Jones/Williams/Henderson FB: Ingold/Stocker WR: Adams/Williams/Allison/MVS/ESB/Kumerow TE: Hockenson/Stocker/Tonyan OT: Bahktiari/Bulaga/Spriggs/Edwards OG: Taylor/Risner/Patrick/McCray C: Linsely/Risner EDGE: Smith/Barr/Polite/Fackrell/Donnerson IDL: Clark/Daniels/Lowry/Lancaster/Adams/Bledsoe OBLB: Martinez/Edwards/Burks/Morrison CB: Alexander/King/Breeland/Jackson/Johnson/Brown FS: Boston/Greene SS: Jones/McIntosh K: Crosby P: Scott LS: Bradley Conclusion: The offense is pretty much hole-less. The big problem of WR2 and RG were both solved with Tyrell Williams and Dalton Risner. On defense, safety is still not strong, but it at least might be competent now. The pass rush saw significant resources put into it. If you have questions about the thresholds I used, feel free to ask, but some more information can be found here: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/justis-2018-green-bay-packers-draft-board-and-athleticism-thresholds-638 and for current EDGE guys, I have my own spreadsheet with the formulas that you can find if you follow the hyperlinks within that post under defensive lineman and then the hyperlink on the following page that'll actually take you to a post in the old forum from like 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBitzMan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This would be an A+ offseason IMO. The Burns vs. Polite argument is going to be one of the more interesting questions in draft season. In Matt Miller's most recent mock, he took Burns at 12 and Polite was still available at the Saints Pick. He took Irv Smith for us but I wouldn't be opposed to getting both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, TheBitzMan said: This would be an A+ offseason IMO. The Burns vs. Polite argument is going to be one of the more interesting questions in draft season. In Matt Miller's most recent mock, he took Burns at 12 and Polite was still available at the Saints Pick. He took Irv Smith for us but I wouldn't be opposed to getting both. Burns could end up pretty similar to Polite in terms of being a draft crush for me. There's a good chance I'd love both at 12. We'll really just have to see what their combines look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Fussnputz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Love it! Just bring in the top college kicker and it's perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Mr. Fussnputz said: Love it! Just bring in the top college kicker and it's perfect! So as far as the kicking situation goes... There's only one actually good kicker this year: Matt Gay from Utah. With other teams in a far more dire situation than GB as far as kicking goes, I'd be very surprised if GB ended up with him. For more info on the college kickers available (and why Gay is really the only good one), you can check out this from one of our former posters: http://www.optimumscouting.com/news/let-s-find-you-a-college-kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopackgo247 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 my only knock is that the IDL is not really addressed. Would like a DE/DT taken instead of Edwards. It would be nice to get Mike Daniels replacement in a year early for development. Outside of that i love this off season. Unfortunately this team cant be fixed in one off season but this is about as close as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well...I was prepared to not like this, based on cutting Graham. LOL! But YOU TOTALLY REDEEMED YOURSELF! I can see Polite that high, though I have reservations. But...your draft haul is impressive. EDGE, 2 OL, TE, corner, safety, and I love the ILB from Wisconsin. Great value there. Loved the free agent signings, too. Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Would be a home run of an off season with that UFA group (Ie Barr, Smith and Williams). Only small gripes are that I don't like grabbing 2 lineman with 2 of our first 4 picks and I don't think Josh Jones is a starting caliber NFL safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 54 minutes ago, gopackgo247 said: my only knock is that the IDL is not really addressed. Would like a DE/DT taken instead of Edwards. It would be nice to get Mike Daniels replacement in a year early for development. Outside of that i love this off season. Unfortunately this team cant be fixed in one off season but this is about as close as it gets. I fully agree that the post-Mike Daniels 3T is a problem GB is going to face.The guy I currently think may fill that in this class would be Dre'Mont Jones from tOSU, but I couldn't take him at 12 over an EDGE. But I do agree that that is something that will need to be addressed in the next two off-seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, SSG said: Would be a home run of an off season with that UFA group (Ie Barr, Smith and Williams). Only small gripes are that I don't like grabbing 2 lineman with 2 of our first 4 picks and I don't think Josh Jones is a starting caliber NFL safety. So the first one is to fill the only really glaring hole on offense, right guard. As far as the next one, you could make a decent argument that there would be some safeties on the board there that could take Josh Jones' spot, but I really value the OT position a lot higher than S, so potentially getting your long-term RT there vs a position of significantly lower value is why I went that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBURGE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I was gonna post a mock today but this one is better than mine so I will wait hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 hours ago, JBURGE said: I was gonna post a mock today but this one is better than mine so I will wait hahaha lol I appreciate it. I tried to put in a bit more effort than just look at board of guys and pick one, so I'm glad it seems to have been received well. My mocks will hopefully get even better post-combine since it's pretty easy to eliminate guys who won't even be on GB's board at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reaper Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nice mock no real complaints as some one else posted this would be A+ off season in my view. The only pick thing I dont care for is the fullback I just dont see the need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Reaper said: Nice mock no real complaints as some one else posted this would be A+ off season in my view. The only pick thing I dont care for is the fullback I just dont see the need. We didn't draft a FB. I took a FB as a UDFA. Shanahan offenses generally have an actual FB and right now GB doesn't have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll be shocked if we draft 3 kids from Wisconsin in one draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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