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Raiders Defense

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It's safe to say, this team out performed last season. A lot of late game heroics. Given the schedule this season and the fact they will naturally come back to earth in some areas, if this defense doesn't get it right.... this is a .500 ball team this season. 

The offense can't carry this team against this schedule. It's brutal. Looking grim as well. We're basically hoping 1) the DLine can find pressure which it's shown nothing to this point 2) The secondary can cover (and we hope Conley is the answer and Obi can cover TEs. 3) Who the heck is going to play LB and be any sort of consistent?

Lot has to go right here with that side of the ball. Prediction. Raiders are middling around .500 in Oct. Pagano takes over play calling. Talent is still void in to many areas to find success. 

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

It's safe to say, this team out performed last season. A lot of late game heroics. Given the schedule this season and the fact they will naturally come back to earth in some areas, if this defense doesn't get it right.... this is a .500 ball team this season. 

The offense can't carry this team against this schedule. It's brutal. Looking grim as well. We're basically hoping 1) the DLine can find pressure which it's shown nothing to this point 2) The secondary can cover (and we hope Conley is the answer and Obi can cover TEs. 3) Who the heck is going to play LB and be any sort of consistent?

Lot has to go right here with that side of the ball. Prediction. Raiders are middling around .500 in Oct. Pagano takes over play calling. Talent is still void in to many areas to find success. 

You can call it out performing or you can place it at the feet of the players that made the plays like Carr, protected by the oline, making timely throws in big drives and pro bowl WRs making catches. Or a Defensive player of the year taking over final drives and wrecking havoc or a Pro bowl safety making mutli ints or game saving hits that end games. Those things aren't luck or out performing they are things these player have done consistently now.

I think we have shown that we have the grit and the elite talent in the important areas to carry us over the top in close games. While I also predict a dip from last yr, I think it's more in the range of 2-3 games and not that doomsday prediction of being a .500 team smh, with or without the defense improving. I think the defense will struggle in the first qtr of the season but will gain its footing more toward the middle of the season and will be in some tight playoff races at the end of the year. The young players getting more comfortable and healthy will be key which is why I think we'll improve as the season progresses. That along with the consistency in the scheme and coaching will start to pay off. I don't think this defense will break the top 12 but they will again make timely plays and the communication will be better.

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4 minutes ago, NightTrainLane said:

You can call it out performing or you can place it at the feet of the players that made the plays like Carr, protected by the oline, making timely throws in big drives and pro bowl WRs making catches. Or a Defensive player of the year taking over final drives and wrecking havoc or a Pro bowl safety making mutli ints or game saving hits that end games. Those things aren't luck or out performing they are things these player have done consistently now.

I think we have shown that we have the grit and the elite talent in the important areas to carry us over the top in close games. While I also predict a dip from last yr, I think it's more in the range of 2-3 games and not that doomsday prediction of being a .500 team smh, with or without the defense improving. I think the defense will struggle in the first qtr of the season but will gain its footing more toward the middle of the season and will be in some tight playoff races at the end of the year. The young players getting more comfortable and healthy will be key which is why I think we'll improve as the season progresses. That along with the consistency in the scheme and coaching will start to pay off. I don't think this defense will break the top 12 but they will again make timely plays and the communication will be better.

I mean this is what you hope happens as we all do.  I'd put the odds more in the favor of the Raiders having a revolving door in the secondary and LB spots. Mack carrying the team with sacks and getting slightly more help on the interior.

I feel 10-6 is realistic this season if the defense can be average. The schedule is brutal however, and I can also see them dropping some games they should win simply because the defense can't handle it's half of the game (Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami type games). 

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23 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

I mean this is what you hope happens as we all do.  I'd put the odds more in the favor of the Raiders having a revolving door in the secondary and LB spots. Mack carrying the team with sacks and getting slightly more help on the interior.

I feel 10-6 is realistic this season if the defense can be average. The schedule is brutal however, and I can also see them dropping some games they should win simply because the defense can't handle it's half of the game (Tennessee, Buffalo, Miami type games). 

Yup, 10-6 is right in the wheel house of the 2-3 games spread on the dip I say we take. That is taking into account the harder schedule not added to it IMO. I think the close games that we won last year will still go our way most of the time due to the improved offense and the maturation process I think we'll see as the season progresses on defense. 

I think people will moan and itch because we will still give up more plays then we'd like but in the end we'll be in the thick of the playoff run. I think the only time we'll look at KNJ's job is when his contract is up and the front office evaluates the position. None of us know what will happen then but I suspect it will come down to the progression and development of the drafted defensive players.

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2 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Yup, 10-6 is right in the wheel house of the 2-3 games spread on the dip I say we take. That is taking into account the harder schedule not added to it IMO. I think the close games that we won last year will still go our way most of the time due to the improved offense and the maturation process I think we'll see as the season progresses on defense. 

I think people will moan and itch because we will still give up more plays then we'd like but in the end we'll be in the thick of the playoff run. I think the only time we'll look at KNJ's job is when his contract is up and the front office evaluates the position. None of us know what will happen then but I suspect it will come down to the progression and development of the drafted defensive players.

I agree with NightTrain here. It's going to be difficult to repeat a 12-4 season with our schedule. However 10-6 would still put us in the hunt as a wildcard if not leading the division. Sure it wouldn't be 12-4, but as we watch these games we'll be on the edge of our seats as we are in every game contending for the win.

I agree that it will take a few years for the D to develop. I think at seasons end we'll have a D ranked somewhere around 16-18.

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11 hours ago, R8DR8five said:

I agree with NightTrain here. It's going to be difficult to repeat a 12-4 season with our schedule. However 10-6 would still put us in the hunt as a wildcard if not leading the division. Sure it wouldn't be 12-4, but as we watch these games we'll be on the edge of our seats as we are in every game contending for the win.

I agree that it will take a few years for the D to develop. I think at seasons end we'll have a D ranked somewhere around 16-18.

We can only hope that our defense plays that well.  We need them to be at their best during the second half of the season.  Especially when we are playing the Patriots, Giants, Chiefs, Broncos, and Cowboys from weeks 12 through 16.

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I appreciate y'alls optimism, but I'm just not seeing it. I know it's only preseason, but the problems this D is having is the exact same as the two previous seasons. There have been no signs of improvement. The QBs are basically doing whatever they want, and completing passes in wide open spaces at an alarming rate. Jared freaking Goff just raced up and down the field, taking advantage of what we already knew were problems. I just don't see how we can make optimistic projections when all indications point to the fact that nothing has changed.

I like the promise of the young players too, but I just don't see them getting better this year - or at least not under the current playcaller. Granted, I think the defensive problem is schematic, and this team would get gouged even if they had the Texans personnel. 

Yes, Khalil Mack can wreck a game to close it out at anytime, and that is a nifty get out of jail free card to have. It's just hard to bank on that. If we do see improvement this year, my fear is that it might be too little too late cause this team is going into the season completely lost on that side of the ball.

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1 hour ago, mct288 said:

I appreciate y'alls optimism, but I'm just not seeing it. I know it's only preseason, but the problems this D is having is the exact same as the two previous seasons. There have been no signs of improvement. The QBs are basically doing whatever they want, and completing passes in wide open spaces at an alarming rate. Jared freaking Goff just raced up and down the field, taking advantage of what we already knew were problems. I just don't see how we can make optimistic projections when all indications point to the fact that nothing has changed.

I like the promise of the young players too, but I just don't see them getting better this year - or at least not under the current playcaller. Granted, I think the defensive problem is schematic, and this team would get gouged even if they had the Texans personnel. 

Yes, Khalil Mack can wreck a game to close it out at anytime, and that is a nifty get out of jail free card to have. It's just hard to bank on that. If we do see improvement this year, my fear is that it might be too little too late cause this team is going into the season completely lost on that side of the ball.

I agree.  If these were problems that we did not see during the regular season last year then yes it is just preseason but it is a continuation.  Until I see something different I will expect the same come this regular season.

On a side note. If you look at the average QB rating for opponents last year and what they did against us we were slightly under their average.  This year the QB rating is almost exactly what it was last year.

                           Actual     Average 2016                             Average 2016

Ryan 131.5 117.1   Brady 112.2
Brees 131.3 101.7   Prescott 104.9
Luck 92.3 96.4   Cousins 97.2
Mariota 46.8 95.6   Mariota 95.6
Smith 109.1 91.2   Smith 91.2
Smith 95.7 91.2   Smith 91.2
Taylor 55.8 89.6   Talyor 89.6
Rivers 93.4 87.9   Rivers 87.9
Rivers 86.3 87.9   Rivers 87.9
Winston 88 86.1   Manning 86
Semian 95.6 84.6   Semian 84.6
Semian 81.3 84.6   Semian 84.6
Flacco 83.7 83.5   Flacco 83.5
Bortles 58.9 78.8   Wentz 79.3
Newton 86.3 75.8   Cutler 78.1
Osweiller 81.5 72.2   McCown 72.3
  88.6 89.0     89.1

 

QB rating is not the best measuring stick but thought this was interesting.

Edited by drfrey13

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The cutdown from 90 to 53 is going to be insane. There is going to be opportunity to grab a piece or two that could help this unit. 

 

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17 hours ago, NightTrainLane said:

Yup, 10-6 is right in the wheel house of the 2-3 games spread on the dip I say we take. That is taking into account the harder schedule not added to it IMO. I think the close games that we won last year will still go our way most of the time due to the improved offense and the maturation process I think we'll see as the season progresses on defense. 

I think people will moan and itch because we will still give up more plays then we'd like but in the end we'll be in the thick of the playoff run. I think the only time we'll look at KNJ's job is when his contract is up and the front office evaluates the position. None of us know what will happen then but I suspect it will come down to the progression and development of the drafted defensive players.

Is this the last year on KNJ's contract? Could be a Musgrave situation. Let him walk in favor of Pagano. 

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3 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Is this the last year on KNJ's contract? Could be a Musgrave situation. Let him walk in favor of Pagano. 

 

3 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Is this the last year on KNJ's contract? Could be a Musgrave situation. Let him walk in favor of Pagano. 

I remember reading a little while back that Pagano might be in line for ahead coaching job fter this year.  This was brought up when talk of him replacing KNJ talked about.

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1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

The cutdown from 90 to 53 is going to be insane. There is going to be opportunity to grab a piece or two that could help this unit. 

 

The most underrated part of preseason/free agency. Always a guy who is playing out of position or is stuck behind a log jam at a position or some depth with potential.

Most important question is, what do we do with Tevecchio?

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2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I agree.  If these were problems that we did not see during the regular season last year then yes it is just preseason but it is a continuation.  Until I see something different I will expect the same come this regular season.

On a side note. If you look at the average QB rating for opponents last year and what they did against us we were slightly under their average.  This year the QB rating is almost exactly what it was last year.

                           Actual     Average 2016                             Average 2016

Ryan 131.5 117.1   Brady 112.2
Brees 131.3 101.7   Prescott 104.9
Luck 92.3 96.4   Cousins 97.2
Mariota 46.8 95.6   Mariota 95.6
Smith 109.1 91.2   Smith 91.2
Smith 95.7 91.2   Smith 91.2
Taylor 55.8 89.6   Talyor 89.6
Rivers 93.4 87.9   Rivers 87.9
Rivers 86.3 87.9   Rivers 87.9
Winston 88 86.1   Manning 86
Semian 95.6 84.6   Semian 84.6
Semian 81.3 84.6   Semian 84.6
Flacco 83.7 83.5   Flacco 83.5
Bortles 58.9 78.8   Wentz 79.3
Newton 86.3 75.8   Cutler 78.1
Osweiller 81.5 72.2   McCown 72.3
  88.6 89.0     89.1

 

QB rating is not the best measuring stick but thought this was interesting.

Our numbers for 2016 only look decent because of M. Mariota, T. Taylor and B. Bortles having bad games against us.  If they maintained their average QB rating (or even 10 points under that), our pass defense would measure as it should, which is below average.

1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

The cutdown from 90 to 53 is going to be insane. There is going to be opportunity to grab a piece or two that could help this unit. 

 

This.  I have been thinking this all off-season.  The rules have changed and literally 1,100+ players are going to be on the market!  We could easily find 2-3 decent players to help solidify the DL and LB positions.  I'm sure R. McKenzie has a boatload of data on players he's been surveying throughout the league that he plans on bringing in.  I'm hoping R. McKenzie keeps doing what he has been doing and finds us another great contributor like J. Richard except on defense.

24 minutes ago, RaiderX said:

The most underrated part of preseason/free agency. Always a guy who is playing out of position or is stuck behind a log jam at a position or some depth with potential.

Most important question is, what do we do with Tevecchio?

Absolutely agree with the bold writing.  

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 Pagano is “going to have more influence if they don’t start getting off the field on third down.”

Papa believes they’re already past that point.

“I think he may have already started. You see [Pagano] during the game broadcast. He’s doing all the talking and Kenny’s not. I would not be surprised if they’ve already made the call on certain down and distance who is actually calling into the green dot speaker in to the field. I think it may be Pagano a lot.”

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