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Raiders Defense


Rolni

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4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Grades out well on PFF (which is BS) so he must be good. He lost the Chargers game because he couldn't make a stop on Henry twice. But fault Norton for leaving him on that island.... twice.

To be fair to PFF (which is not BS), Joseph did not grade out great against the Chargers. As I pointed out before, Joseph is among the only safeties in the top 15 who grades out under an 80 (above average starter level) in coverage or run support. The only thing is grades out above the mean is in pass rushing -- which isn't something he does particularly often.

While the defense is definitely short on talent (an argument I've made before), I don't think the staff is doing the unit any favors. Norton was brought in alongside a pretty big defensive free agent group in 2016. Sean Smith, Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson, Karl Joseph, Dan Williams, and the extension of David Amerson all had us bullish on the team's potential going forward. The staff has not made the necessary adjustments to account for the lack of real talent on the team. I don't think the bones of a top 15 defense are there yet, but I do think the lack of turnovers (which are fickle +/-) and sacks are a true combination of talent and staff.

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56 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

To be fair to PFF (which is not BS), Joseph did not grade out great against the Chargers. As I pointed out before, Joseph is among the only safeties in the top 15 who grades out under an 80 (above average starter level) in coverage or run support. The only thing is grades out above the mean is in pass rushing -- which isn't something he does particularly often.

While the defense is definitely short on talent (an argument I've made before), I don't think the staff is doing the unit any favors. Norton was brought in alongside a pretty big defensive free agent group in 2016. Sean Smith, Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson, Karl Joseph, Dan Williams, and the extension of David Amerson all had us bullish on the team's potential going forward. The staff has not made the necessary adjustments to account for the lack of real talent on the team. I don't think the bones of a top 15 defense are there yet, but I do think the lack of turnovers (which are fickle +/-) and sacks are a true combination of talent and staff.

It actually is. It's the reason why people got high on Amerson. And going back, who can forget the "Stanford Route grades out as well as Asomugha and Revis" crowd justifying his awful contract. 

PFF makes assumptions and has errors in their math as a result. They are judging players without having any actual knowledge of what their actual assignment is. I could go on. 

PFF is novelty. Not this holy grail fans use as social proof. 

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1 minute ago, big_palooka said:

It actually is. It's the reason why people got high on Amerson. And going back, who can forget the "Stanford Route grades out as well as Asomugha and Revis" crowd justifying his awful contract. 

PFF makes assumptions and has errors in their math as a result. They are judging players without having any actual knowledge of what their actual assignment is. I could go on. 

PFF is novelty. Not this holy grail fans use as social proof. 

It has flaws as any system that analyzes anything but it get many things right and is better than just looking at stats. Much more than a novelty.

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@big_palooka PFF’s grades are for the most part an accurate representation of how a player performs in his respective role during a season. Amerson legitimately played well in 2015 — which is why he graded well in 2015. During subsequent years he hasn’t played well and his grade has reflected that.

PFF has former coaches on staff who have sufficient knowledge of assignments and play calls. Further, football is not nearly as complex as you make it out to be. Drops, missed tackles, whiffs on blocks objectively deserve bad scores. If a scorer is unsure of the result of the play, the play isn’t scored positively or negatively.

Lastly, PFF is much more than a novelty. The NFL uses it (albiet, more for their advanced metrics). It is a good way to get a birdseye view of how a roster is performing and provides some context to raw stats.

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4 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

@big_palooka PFF’s grades are for the most part an accurate representation of how a player performs in his respective role during a season. Amerson legitimately played well in 2015 — which is why he graded well in 2015. During subsequent years he hasn’t played well and his grade has reflected that.

PFF has former coaches on staff who have sufficient knowledge of assignments and play calls. Further, football is not nearly as complex as you make it out to be. Drops, missed tackles, whiffs on blocks objectively deserve bad scores. If a scorer is unsure of the result of the play, the play isn’t scored positively or negatively.

Lastly, PFF is much more than a novelty. The NFL uses it (albiet, more for their advanced metrics). It is a good way to get a birdseye view of how a roster is performing and provides some context to raw stats.

It could be credible but if it has Joseph in the upper ranks of safeties it is quite flawed. They must not be accounting for things such as a lack of impact plays such as passes defensed, turnovers, scores, etc., or weighting it properly towards how a secondary player is supposed to be an asset against the pass far moreso than the run. Deion Sanders is widely known as one of the best defenders at corner ever, and he was horrid against the run. If run and pass are half and half, PFF is deeply flawed. 

It's not so much that these guys can't grade accurately or well, but it is that the grades are not considered properly as far as what matters in accordance to each player position in deciding the outcome of an actual game. The context of the games is utterly lost in the grading. Because when it comes to games, Joseph and his good grades are winning us nothing thus far, because he is a pass defender who can't defend the pass. 

Edited by holyghost
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10 hours ago, big_palooka said:

@holyghost good post. It really is easier to point to 1 facet (Norton) and absolve the rest. But you're right. This defense is missing playmakers. Joseph is getting the PFF fan treatment right now. Grades out well on PFF (which is BS) so he must be good. He lost the Chargers game because he couldn't make a stop on Henry twice. But fault Norton for leaving him on that island.... twice. Fact is, if a team wants to move the ball on this team, they can pretty easily. 

Reggie gets a lot of love for some picks. But his 2nd to 5th round selections have been brutal. And he's found all of 1 (Mack) gamers on defense thus far.

Unfair to Obi and Conley. Neither had injury concerns and should bounce back. Vanderdoes is a rookie, give him some time before calling him to the carpet. 

I do however think a better DC will certainly elevate some of these players. There are just too many coaching errors with this group on defense. 

I am not calling out Conley and Obi, just pointing out how the last two drafts of 6 defenders in rounds 1-3 are not contributing a penny to this team's success. AFA Vanderdoes, he's playing no different than Ward was last year. 8 games in, 8 games have shown us something most Raider fans simply don't want to see. Sadly they may be showing us Ward's arc, again. We saw promise with Edwards as a rookie, and he is average now. What does no promise look like? No plays I think. Good players very often show rookie promise in bits and pieces. Vanderdoes has not. Bad players often show little to nothing, which is what he has shown. It's a typical Raider story, again. Wait 3 years for the "potential" in all these "studs" we're collecting to start filling out. Does it, ever? It has yet to, but well back into the Al Davis days all Raider fans knew what that was like, time and time again. Not slamming the door on the guy, but it's absolutely not looking good right now for his future. Looks like another Ellis to me. Just a guy. 

A better DC will elevate them. But never to a top defense, because there are not enough top players to produce those results even with a top DC. Which we likely never have, nor a top coach, because we don't pay top coach dollars in Oakland. Why do you guys think we have Del Rio, Norton, and Downing in the first place?

Edited by holyghost
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19 hours ago, big_palooka said:

It actually is. It's the reason why people got high on Amerson. And going back, who can forget the "Stanford Route grades out as well as Asomugha and Revis" crowd justifying his awful contract. 

PFF makes assumptions and has errors in their math as a result. They are judging players without having any actual knowledge of what their actual assignment is. I could go on. 

PFF is novelty. Not this holy grail fans use as social proof. 

PFF base grades on how a player has played, not there fault if the player doesn't live up to it the next season. By all accounts Amerson was good last year, being tested often and making plays.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The Raider defense has been flirting with it all year, but it finally replaced the Pats' defense as the 32nd ranked defense by DVOA on Football Outsiders this week.  Granted it's an efficiency metric, and not everyone buys into the value of DVOA, but it's an indictment of the D nonetheless  

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-9-dvoa-ratings

 

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3 hours ago, 808sinfour4time said:

The Raider defense has been flirting with it all year, but it finally replaced the Pats' defense as the 32nd ranked defense by DVOA on Football Outsiders this week.  Granted it's an efficiency metric, and not everyone buys into the value of DVOA, but it's an indictment of the D nonetheless  

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-9-dvoa-ratings

 

Pats defense has improved quite a bit over the past month or so.

Thats what good coaching does.

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15 hours ago, Silver&Black88 said:

 

Doesn’t Reggie realize players regress in their 30s... Nelson, Penn shouldn’t be getting long term deals.. Bowman has been okay... let’s see how he does the rest of the year... if he finishes the year strong then sign him to a new one year contract. If a team wants to break the bank, let him walk.. 

here is my grades for the defensive starters so far .. my eye test, and I’ll list need for starters 

Leo: Mack- A 

not monster numbers, but it’s tough for him with a lack of talent 

base end: Edwards - B 

has been good, but not elite 

UT- Vanderdoes D 

thrown into the wolves.. starting to fade away and have no impact 

NT- Ellis C 

been playing average... defense still sucks, and gets run on 

weakside- James B

seems like a natural Weakside backer.... smaller, fast, makes plays 

mike- bowman C 

too soon to really grade him. Late pickup 

strongside Irvin C 

made a few plays, made more of an impact last year 

cb- sean smith D 

up and down year... graded lower because he is getting paid elite cornerback money 

cb - amerson D 

mostly down year. Maybe a better pass rush makes him look better 

FS- Nelson F 

dude is washed up 

ss- Joseph B

beat here and there, but plays the game physical..solid in the box and a stud athlete 

Edited by Humble_Beast
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