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🦅🤠 NFC East 🤷‍♂️🆘: A winner with no name


Who wins the East in 2019?  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will be the fairest of them all in 2019?

    • Philadelphia Eagles
    • Dallas Cowboys
    • New York Giants
    • Football Team


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Do we also forget that some of the Interceptions QBs throw are literally end of game/half interceptions that they wouldn't otherwise throw but just to have a hope and a prayer. Also "shoulda coulda" interceptions, whichever would-be interception stat you want to use is highly subjective.

Even then you should be looking at adjusted rate, not adjusted interceptions themselves. If Dwayne Haskins "should" have had 15 interceptions in 200 pass attempts and Wentz "should" have had 16 in 550 pass attempts what do you think is worse? (I'm pulling these numbers out of my rear to prove a point, don't try to use them as me not understanding your statistic)

To quote "Bill Parcels, you are what your record says you are." Likewise, "You are responsible for as many interceptions as you throw."

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9 minutes ago, Danger said:

Do we also forget that some of the Interceptions QBs throw are literally end of game/half interceptions that they wouldn't otherwise throw but just to have a hope and a prayer. Also "shoulda coulda" interceptions, whichever would-be interception stat you want to use is highly subjective.

Even then you should be looking at adjusted rate, not adjusted interceptions themselves. If Dwayne Haskins "should" have had 15 interceptions in 200 pass attempts and Wentz "should" have had 16 in 550 pass attempts what do you think is worse? (I'm pulling these numbers out of my rear to prove a point, don't try to use them as me not understanding your statistic)

To quote "Bill Parcels, you are what your record says you are." Likewise, "You are responsible for as many interceptions as you throw."

  • We start with each player's actual interception total. Jameis Winston led the NFL in 2019 with 30 interceptions, only the 12th time in NFL/AFL history that a quarterback has thrown so many in a single season, and the first since Vinny Testaverde in 1988.

 

  • We then add plays where the quarterback threw a ball that could have or should have been intercepted but was not, either because the defender outright dropped the ball (which we have been tracking in game charting since 2007), or he had it knocked out of his hands by an offensive receiver (a "defensed interception," which we have been tracking since 2012). These are listed as "Drop/Def INT" in the table at the end of this page. Winston also led the NFL in this category, with 13 -- the most of any quarterback in a single season since Andrew Luck threw 14 as a rookie in 2012. (Note that this does not include a Kyle Allen pass that was dropped by Adrian Amos of the Packers, only to then be intercepted by Amos' teammate Tramon Williams -- Allen deserved to be intercepted on that play, and eventually, he was.)

 

  • Next, we subtract those interceptions that were tipped by receivers into the hands of defenders (as established in 2017, these plays can be thought of as Matt Ryan specials). Three players tied for the league lead in this category with three apiece: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Baker Mayfield. (Jameis Winston had two.) We also subtract passes that are tipped by receivers but then dropped by defenders to make sure they are not double-counted. There was only one of these in 2018, but eight in 2019, though no player threw more than one.

 

  • We subtract Hail Mary interceptions, as well as interceptions thrown in desperation on fourth down in the final two minutes of a game. We're flexible on these definitions, but this year there was only one play that was in the gray area: a Winston interception in Week 6 against Carolina, thrown on fourth down while trailing by 11 points with 2:31 to go. We opted not to count that one as a Hail Mary interception. Three players threw two qualifying Hail Mary interceptions last season: Dak Prescott, Philip Rivers, and Detroit's David Blough. (Blough did not qualify for the final table below, but he finished with eight adjusted interceptions and six actual interceptions.)

 

  • New this year, we are subtracting dropped interceptions that occur in Hail Mary situations, since those plays wouldn't count as adjusted interceptions even if they had been caught. Mitchell Trubisky had two such plays; Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, and Aaron Rodgers threw one each.
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10 minutes ago, Danger said:

Oh and don't even get me started on how we had literally lawn chairs playing at WR 75% of last season. And routinely had 6,7, even 8 starters out of the lineup.

I sympathize, but nobody cares about injury excuses when it comes to the Redskins.  Try having literally half your salary cap on IR by the end of the year.

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3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Proof?  Like, actual figures instead of exaggerations.

We didn't have half our Salary cap, but we did win the Super Bowl without our MVP Quarterback, as well as our Hall of Fame LT. Starting Middle Linebacker and a plethora of other players missing time. 

There's nothing you can say to make me think that any would-be interception stats mean anything. They're subjective and usually only brought up to paint a narrative.

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13 minutes ago, Danger said:

We didn't have half our Salary cap, but we did win the Super Bowl without our MVP Quarterback, as well as our Hall of Fame LT. Starting Middle Linebacker and a plethora of other players missing time. 

There's nothing you can say to make me think that any would-be interception stats mean anything. They're subjective and usually only brought up to paint a narrative.

What's subjective about a pass hitting a defender in the hands?

This is Football Outsiders.  A known and respected data site.  This isn't that Twitter guy.  These numbers are far more conservative.

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