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@RandyMossIsBossΒ => A guy on Reddit just posted something similar to what you did last season. Thought you might be interested in it. I like the inclusion of EPA, but dont like that they excluded PFF and DVOA.Β 

5 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

From /u/ AegonTargaryan

Which stats are the most important? Can you actually rate quarterbacks in a manner to encompass all aspects of the game? In an attempt to accurately rate QBs I have taken four of the most widely used and highly regarded stats and combined them to see which QB is best. Passer Rating, ANY/A, EPA, and QBR will be the stats used in this comparison. Passer Rating measures TD%, INT%, YPA, and Completion % but it fails to account for rushing, situational need, and supporting cast. ANY/A has similar measurement but also includes sacks and historically is the most predictive stat for success. It is here we start to see some basic stats like completion % counted multiple times. This is intentional because these stats that are primarily passing based which is the largest part of a QB's game. Though rushing is a large part of some QBs' games, passing is dominant. EPA shows how beneficial a player is in comparison to others. EPA also takes into account situational need and supporting cast. QBR is the most divisive of the stats being used. This is because its methodology is not publicly known and it often has some drastically different results to other ratings like the ones we are using. Despite this it accounts for rushing ability as well as other parts of the QB's game which raw stats may not address.

Methodology:

This is for 2019 only. I took 28 quarterbacks leaving out backups or QBs that went out early. From these 28 QBs I took the highest and lowest grade in each stat. I then measured each QB stat between these for a percentile score. Example: Dalton had the lowest passer rating of 78.3 while Tannehill had the highest at 117.5. Dalton's percentile is .000 while Tannehill's is 1.000. Watson, with a 98.0 passer rating is in the .502 percentile. I then took the four percentile grades for each QB and averaged them. Example 2: Carr's passer rating %: .574 - ANY/A %: .635 - EPA %: .597 - QBR %: .537 = Average of .586 . I call this metric the Quarterback Performance Percentile or QBPP. It is important to remember that .500 is NOT the average. .500 is directly in the middle of the worst and best scores. the QBPP average is actually .467 meaning that the best the average QB was closer to the worst graded QB then he was to the best graded QB.

Creation:

Originally I was going to do this from 2016-2019 with 40 starts minimum. Some stats proved harder to find though (like QBR) so I just did 2019. I was also going to include PFF and maybe DVOA but PFF is private and subjective and I just flat out forgot DVOA by the time I was started. The reason to begin in 2016 is that 4 years is enough to get a good understanding of a QB as well as being a standard contract length. This was originally to rank QBs overall, not just grade a season. If this is successful enough I may give that another go. Anyway, here is you Quarterback Performance Percentile for 2019. * indicates less than 12 starts.

Rank Player QBPP PR ANY/A EPA QBR
1 Jackson .973 113.3 8.19 103.7 81.8
2 Mahomes .880 105.3 8.38 97.3 76.3
3 Stafford* .813 106.0 8.15 56.1 69.6
4 Brees* .789 116.3 8.33 62.6 71.7
5 Wilson .755 106.3 7.42 90.9 69.8
6 Prescott .754 99.7 7.84 93.1 70.2
7 Tannehill* .692 117.5 8.52 45.8 62.2
8 Watson .641 98.0 6.63 91.6 68.7
9 Cousins .598 107.4 7.73 59.0 58.4
10 Carr .586 100.8 7.25 70.3 62.2
11 Garroppolo .567 102.0 7.22 69.3 58.8
12 Wentz .533 93.1 6.26 90.5 60.8
13 Ryan .437 92.1 6.08 75.1 57.6
14 Rodgers .428 95.4 6.71 66.4 50.4
15 Fitzpatrick .405 85.5 5.78 70.7 66.5
16 Brady .347 88.0 6.24 61.0 53.7
17 Murray .345 87.4 5.55 71.6 55.7
18T Rivers .312 88.5 6.32 57.4 48.6
18T Winston .312 84.3 6.15 78.4 53.7
20 Goff .309 86.5 6.46 57.5 48.5
21 Brisset .280 88.0 6.06 52.2 50.1
22 Jones .260 87.7 5.38 55.1 53.6
23 Minshew .244 91.2 6.44 41.8 42.6
24 J. Allen .218 85.3 5.71 51.4 47.3
25 Mayfield .188 78.8 5.29 54.4 52.4
26 Darnold .100 84.3 5.50 31.6 43.6
27 Trubisky .066 83.0 5.04 39.8 39.5
28 Dalton .014 78.3 5.19 30.3 40.1

Β 

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@GmenΒ => heres a stat you can brag about your boy. Looks like pressure doesnt change his output much. Atleast for 2019:

1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

From /u/Kobegriffeysanders on reddit:

So, I am not a huge manipulator of data, spreadsheets, etc. This relatively simple project took longer than I wish to admit. Basically, using PFF, I compiled a list of 36 quarterbacks from the 2019 NFL season and compiled their Passer Ratings from a clean pocket and when pressured, then calculated the actual and percent differences of the two passer rating figures for each QB.

DISCLAIMER:Β Yes, I know Passer Rating is not a perfect all-powerful statistic, but it at least serves as something of an overarching indicator of performance, and I felt it worked sufficiently for this kind of project.

First, let's look at how effectively each QB passed the ball from a clean pocket.

QUARTERBACKS Clean Pocket Passer Rating
Ryan Tannehill 122.8
Drew Brees 120.8
Matt Stafford 120.0
Lamar Jackson 118.5
Kirk Cousins 118.1
Russell Wilson 114.5
Teddy Bridgewater 114
Jimmy Garoppolo 110.8
Patrick Mahomes 110.6
Deshaun Watson 107.9
Dak Prescott 107.8
Drew Lock 105.3
Derek Carr 104.8
Mason Rudolph 104.7
Aaron Rodgers 104.2
Matt Ryan 101.5
Tom Brady 101.2
Jacoby Brissett 100.5
Sam Darnold 99.6
Jared Goff 99.5
Carson Wentz 99.4
Jameis Winston 98.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick 98.4
Marcus Mariota 98.0
Joe Flacco 97.7
Daniel Jones 96.8
Gardner Minshew 96.7
Philip Rivers 96.4
Nick Foles 95.7
Josh Allen 95.2
Kyler Murray 94.8
Mitch Trubisky 93.0
Kyle Allen 89.6
Baker Mayfield 85.0
Andy Dalton 83.9
Dwayne Haskins 81.8
AVERAGE 102.45

A couple of things to note here:

  • Holy hell Tannehill

  • Bridgewater, Rudolph (!), and Brissett stand out as surprises in a good way.

  • Brady, Rivers, Allen, Murray, and Mayfield (!) stand out as surprises in a bad way, relative to league-average.

Next, let's look at how each of these QBs passed the ball when pressured, as well as the % of dropbacks they were pressured. (sorted by passer rating when pressured)

QUARTERBACKS Pressured Pocket Passer Rating % Dropbacks Pressured
Drew Brees 100.1 25.1%
Ryan Tannehill 98.4 29.9%
Lamar Jackson 97.7 30.9%
Patrick Mahomes 89.7 28.3%
Russell Wilson 89.3 39.8%
Derek Carr 88.4 28.4%
Kirk Cousins 84.9 36.4%
Dak Prescott 79.5 31.9%
Carson Wentz 78.8 35.8%
Gardner Minshew 77.7 35.1%
Matt Stafford 77.2 37.5%
Deshaun Watson 76.6 38.4%
Marcus Mariota 75.1 35.1%
Jimmy Garoppolo 74.2 30.0%
Aaron Rodgers 74.0 34.5%
Matt Ryan 73.8 39.2%
Daniel Jones 72.2 41.7%
Philip Rivers 71.7 35.5%
Jacoby Brissett 63.8 38.3%
Kyler Murray 62.1 29.5%
Baker Mayfield 62.0 33.4%
Teddy Bridgewater 60.9 33.6%
Josh Allen 60.5 36.1%
Jared Goff 60.4 36.0%
Andy Dalton 60.0 29.2%
Dwayne Haskins 58.9 35.9%
Sam Darnold 58.5 41.9%
Drew Lock 58.4 36.0%
Ryan Fitzpatrick 57.8 39.7%
Nick Foles 57.5 32.8%
Joe Flacco 55.4 36.4%
Mitch Trubisky 55.2 32.3%
Kyle Allen 54.1 34.2%
Tom Brady 51.8 29.9%
Jameis Winston 44.4 33.0%
Mason Rudolph 35.6 36.4%
AVERAGE 69.35 34.39%

A couple more notes:

  • Darnold and Jones are the only QBs who were pressured over 40% of the time. Close to that 40% mark are Wilson, Fitzpatrick, Ryan, Watson, and Brissett (!)

  • The percent difference between the least-pressured and 2nd-least-pressured QBs is greater than the percent difference between the 2nd- and 9th-least-pressured QBs (Brees #1 at 25.1%, Mahomes #2 at 28.3%, Jackson at #9 at 30.9%). This is a testament to the New Orleans offense as a whole -- Brees getting rid of the ball quickly, having weapons (AKA Michael Thomas) good enough to be successful in getting rid of the ball quickly, Sean Payton's playcalling, and an elite offensive line.

  • Tom Brady played alarmingly bad when pressured, having a pressured Passer Rating worse than QBs like Kyle Allen, Mitch Trubisky, and Joe Flacco.

Lastly, let's look at the percent difference in Passer Rating for each QB, as well as the actual difference. (ex. An actual difference of 120.0 and 96.0 is 24.0, whereas the percent difference would be 20%) This is sorted by percent difference.Β Being at the top of the list means a QBs passing was more significantly affected by being pressured. Being at the bottom means a QBs passing was less significantly affected.

QUARTERBACKS Percent Difference in Passer Rating Actual Difference
Mason Rudolph 66% 69.1
Jameis Winston 55% 54.3
Tom Brady 49% 49.4
Teddy Bridgewater 47% 53.1
Drew Lock 45% 46.9
Joe Flacco 43% 42.3
Sam Darnold 41% 41.1
Ryan Fitzpatrick 41% 40.6
Mitch Trubisky 41% 37.8
Nick Foles 40% 38.0
Kyle Allen 40% 35.5
Jared Goff 39% 39.1
Jacoby Brissett 37% 36.7
Josh Allen 36% 34.7
Matt Stafford 36% 42.8
Kyler Murray 34% 32.7
Jimmy Garoppolo 33% 36.6
Deshaun Watson 29% 31.3
Aaron Rodgers 29% 30.2
Andy Dalton 28% 23.9
Kirk Cousins 28% 33.2
Dwayne Haskins 28% 22.9
Matt Ryan 27% 27.7
Baker Mayfield 27% 23.0
Dak Prescott 26% 28.3
Philip Rivers 26% 24.7
Daniel Jones 25% 24.6
Marcus Mariota 23% 22.9
Russell Wilson 22% 25.2
Carson Wentz 21% 20.6
Ryan Tannehill 20% 24.4
Gardner Minshew 20% 19.0
Patrick Mahomes 19% 20.9
Lamar Jackson 18% 20.8
Drew Brees 17% 20.7
Derek Carr 16% 16.4
AVERAGE 32% 33.1

Finally. The meat and potatoes of this post. Which QBs saw the steepest decline in play when pressured? Well, as we can see, within the top half of the list are many inconsistent/question-mark guys (Winston, Bridgewater, Flacco, Fitzpatrick, Trubisky, Foles), young guys (Rudolph, Lock, Darnold, Kyle Allen), and... Tom Brady? This is not a Tom Brady roast, but I was very surprised to see his Passer Rating decrease byΒ nearly halfΒ when pressured this past season.

Toward the bottom of the list were generally guys who are more highly-regarded. Three of the more interesting names are Daniel Jones at only a 25% decline, Gardner Minshew (20%) and Derek Carr (16%). It's interesting to say that Derek Carr is the QB who was least-affected by pressure in the 2019 season.

My next question would be if this kind of data is at all consistent from year to year. For example: Is Derek Carr normally this unaffected by pressure? Has Tom Brady always been this highly affected?

What a great way to kill a morning for me. I miss football. I also hope these formatting tables work.

Β 

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@Matts4313

^ should be the passing offense rankings for last season, rather than the "QB" rankings, as nearly all of those stats rely significantly on inputΒ from the other 10 players onΒ offense and do a relatively terrible job of isolating actual QB performance.

It's 2020. Β There are much smarter metrics out there.

Β 

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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31 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Matts4313

^ should be the passing offense rankings for last season, rather than the "QB" rankings, as nearly all of those stats rely significantly on inputΒ from the other 10 players onΒ offense and do a relatively terrible job of isolating actual QB performance.

It's 2020. Β There are much smarter metrics out there.

Β 

Such as?

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Such as?

-PFF QB Grades

-SIS Total Points Metric

BothΒ isolate a quarterback’s performance independent from the rest of his team, and both are much more highly correlated from year-to-year than QBR (more predictive).Β 

I will say though, at least QBR attempts to isolate a QB's performance from the outcome of the play, unlike those other metrics you posted. Β It just doesn't seem to do a very good job of predictingΒ next year's success on a relative basis.

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*Ignore the title. Table is actually 2016-2019, as SIS's inception isΒ in 2016.

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@Gmen. Β You should look into incorporating dropsΒ into your CPOE model. You’d create something much more useful and would be credited withΒ it going forward. Β You could probably use an average of listed dropsΒ between 2 or 3 different sources. Just a thought.Β 

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2 hours ago, Gmen said:

EZTnKOJWoAI7D-0?format=jpg&name=large

@HTTRDynasty Rookie year CPOE correlates pretty well with career CPOE.Β 

Haskins is overlapping with Minshew at the -4.3 mark on that graph.

lmao @DangerΒ about to fight you IRL. He has convinced theΒ entire Eagles fanbase that rookie years dont matter (but 9 games as a sophomore is the key factor).Β 

:D

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9 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

lmao @DangerΒ about to fight you IRL. He has convinced theΒ entire Eagles fanbase that rookie years dont matter (but 9 games as a sophomore is the key factor).Β 

:D

Rookie QB seasons don't matter. 13* games. Also Wentz was good in year 3, not as good, but still a top 10 QB season that year.

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