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Phire

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If any of you want to geek out over stats/how to win in the NFL, feel free to read this.

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Ill go ahead and post the part that you guys will somehow use against Dak:

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Under 200 yards at 6.2 to 7.0 YPA and 0 interceptions gives you a 94-8 record (.922 winning percentage) since 2005. Against winning teams, it's 38-4 (.905). Against teams that made the playoffs, it's 32-2 (.941).

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Under 200 yards, under 30 attempts and no interceptions = 1032-253-3 since 2005 (.803 win pct).Β 

Eagles Fan: Buh gawd, thats Dak Prescott music.

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4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

If any of you want to geek out over stats/how to win in the NFL, feel free to read this.

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Ill go ahead and post the part that you guys will somehow use against Dak:

Eagles Fan: Buh gawd, thats Dak Prescott music.

Bro you’re really reaching ?

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6 minutes ago, eagles18 said:

Bro you’re really reaching ?

Those arent my stats. I take it you didnt even click the thread? The thread is about winning percentages as it relates to rushing vs passing. Most of those post are a few years old, but he recently updated them to respond to guys worried about passing yardage.Β 

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EDIT - The guy that wrote is is a former member here who moved on to bigger and better things (he left probably 10 years ago). He was the forums cap guru. He is also the person who broke the draft comp formula and was featured on ESPN. He's pretty smart.Β 

Edited by Matts4313
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3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Those arent my stats. I take it you didnt even click the thread? The thread is about winning percentages as it relates to rushing vs passing. Most of those post are a few years old, but he recently updated them to respond to guys worried about passing yardage.Β 

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EDIT - The guy that wrote is is a former member here who moved on to bigger and better things (he left probably 10 years ago). He was the forums cap guru. He is also the person who broke the draft comp formula and was featured on ESPN. He's pretty smart.Β 

I agree that passing yards don’t tell the whole story, but dak is worse than that statistic.. he seems to have a case of dirtballitisΒ 

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44 minutes ago, eagles18 said:

I agree that passing yards don’t tell the whole story, but dak is worse than that statistic.. he seems to have a case of dirtballitisΒ 

Thats still not what the thread is about. I only pulled that part because I wanted to beat you to the punch for the LULZ. The stats arent about Dak at all - its about passing efficiency and how it correlates to winning.Β 

The basic gist is that Passing efficiency is the #1 indicator of if your team is going to win. Its not bulk rushing/efficient rushing. Its not bulk passing. Its was your QB more efficient than the other QB. If the answer is yes, you are ~85% more likely to win.

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49 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

The basic gist is that Passing efficiency is the #1 indicator of if your team is going to win. Its not bulk rushing/efficient rushing. Its not bulk passing. Its was your QB more efficient than the other QB. If the answer is yes, you are ~85% more likely to win.

So has Dak been more efficient then the QB's he's played against? If so are we to blame Zeke and his Rushing because then I'm really confused?

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41 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

So has Dak been more efficient then the QB's he's played against? If so are we to blame Zeke and his Rushing because then I'm really confused?

I have no clue what the hell you are asking. Daks won when he has played better than his opponent regardless of the running game. Obviously by the last ~15 games, he has been playing considerably worse than his opponent. Thats true for all teams, not just the Cowboys.Β 

RB performance leads to a ~4.4% variance in winning percentage over the last 30 years.Β 

QB performance leads to a ~65% variance in winning percentage over the last 30 years.

When one QB has a better performance against the opposing teams defense, his team has an 85% chance of winning.Β 

Offensively the biggest key in the NFL is passing efficiency (not bulk numbers)

Defensively the biggest key is the NFL is reducing passing efficiency (not bulk numbers)

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6 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

Gotta hand it to him, when @Matts4313Β commits to a bad take. He commits to a bad take.

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This is so much work to really convince himself that Dak isn't a bad QB.

He is like the last kid in the 90's holding on to the bowl cut. At this point, he won't let it go out of principle

I've never seen someone double down on something so hard before.

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

The basic gist is that Passing efficiency is the #1 indicator of if your team is going to win. Its not bulk rushing/efficient rushing. Its not bulk passing. Its was your QB more efficient than the other QB. If the answer is yes, you are ~85% more likely to win.

Yup. Back in the late 2000s, we all knew that the league was becoming more pass heavy. Andy Reid was certainly ahead of that curve. But some of those passing offenses were still running vertical offenses. But within the pass-heavy era, offenses have evolved to abandon vertical passing and instead go toward conservative, dink and dunk "high efficiency" type passing offenses. A dumpoff to a RB used to be a "check down" but now it's becoming a staple of many offenses.

The underlying theory is that by having a high efficiency, low risk passing attack form the basis of an offense, you negate the risk of interceptions. That's why we're having unprecedented levels of QB rating and QB performance overall. QBs aren't throwing interceptions at the rate they used to, because a lot of offenses have abandoned those high-risk throws. They're all running low-risk passing offenses.

It also helps you win, as you said.

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12 minutes ago, EaglesPeteC said:

Gotta hand it to him, when @Matts4313Β commits to a bad take. He commits to a bad take.

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This is so much work to really convince himself that Dak isn't a bad QB.

He is like the last kid in the 90's holding on to the bowl cut. At this point, he won't let it go out of principle

I really want to know WTF you are talking about? Im not even defending Dak. Is this a struggle to understand? This same concept applies to the Eagles, Redskins and Giants.Β 

And the Pats

And the Steelers

And every other team in the NFL for 30 years. And its not even my work.Β 

I literally pulled the part that allowed you to ish on Dak.

But maybe its to complex.

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But that really only tells half the story. Sam Bradford is one of the most efficient quarterbacks, but he sucks. Same with Dak. So does Alex Smith. What separates championship winning QBs is that they're able to make those downfield throws when they need to, even in an era where most passes are high-efficiency, low-risk.

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1 minute ago, Phire said:

Yup. Back in the late 2000s, we all knew that the league was becoming more pass heavy. Andy Reid was certainly ahead of that curve. But some of those passing offenses were still running vertical offenses. But within the pass-heavy era, offenses have evolved to abandon vertical passing and instead go toward conservative, dink and dunk "high efficiency" type passing offenses. A dumpoff to a RB used to be a "check down" but now it's becoming a staple of many offenses.

The underlying theory is that by having a high efficiency, low risk passing attack form the basis of an offense, you negate the risk of interceptions. That's why we're having unprecedented levels of QB rating and QB performance overall. QBs aren't throwing interceptions at the rate they used to, because a lot of offenses have abandoned those high-risk throws. They're all running low-risk passing offenses.

It also helps you win, as you said.

giphy.gif

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Thank god. I was about to lose my mind.Β 

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1 minute ago, Phire said:

But that really only tells half the story. Sam Bradford is one of the most efficient quarterbacks, but he sucks. Same with Dak. So does Alex Smith. What separates championship winning QBs is that they're able to make those downfield throws when they need to, even in an era where most passes are high-efficiency, low-risk.

Being able to make downfield throws makes you even more efficient. It quite literally enhances every single efficiency stat. And you are right that it separates the boys from the men.

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