MookieMonstah Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 1 minute ago, jrry32 said: Wasn't that Alvin Kamara? Oh was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrry32 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, MookieMonstah said: Oh was it? I know Alvin Kamara caught a 48-yard TD that was called back due to holding on Peat (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, jrry32 said: I know Alvin Kamara caught a 48-yard TD that was called back due to holding on Peat (I think). That was it. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 hours ago, pwny said: What I’m really struggling to understand is how having fewer catches (because you both *get open less and catch fewer when targeted), for fewer total yards, while converting fewer first downs, and having a worse per route average is better because when you finally are able to get open it’s a couple yards deeper. If someone could explain that, maybe I’d get why someone could think some of these other receivers being named are better than Thomas. So first of all, can you be more specific? I've said a few times I have 4, probably 5 WRs above Thomas. Which ones do you take issue with, specifically? Because the shoe ins, to me, are OBJ, Jones, Brown, and Hopkins. I have Hill higher but I'd be understanding of arguments the other way. So of those 4, who do you not think are better than Thomas? Because that would help me refute your list of stats there. Because most of the guys I have above him have fewer catches, but more yards per game (or within 1 yard), all of them had more yards per catch, half had more first downs, half had more TDs, etc. So the guys I'm saying above him aren't all inferior in all those stats you list. Because Julio has him beat this year in yards and first downs. Hopkins had him in yards, first downs, and TDs. OBJ and Brown get difficult, but their per game numbers were all basically equal or better, per catch stats were better. But, a few things I can refute, without getting WR specific. First of all, it isn't just about getting open deeper. It's also about YAC. YPC isn't just depth of target, it's a mixture of things. Thomas isn't a big play guy as a short game receiver or a long game receiver. He isn't a deep threat, but he also isn't the guy who is going to take a slant 40 yards after breaking a tackle or two. Those are two major components in the game of a guy who is going to have a higher YPC, and they do matter. It isn't just going deeper, it's having a guy who can create something. A guy who can make a big play. Thomas had one this year, basically, that people point to. That's it. Thomas sure will catch a short pass though. Second, I feel like you're basically ignoring the fact that production does not equal quality of play. Having the most catches doesn't mean you were the best at getting open. Having the most first downs (he didn't, mind you) doesn't mean you played the best (having the most anything doesn't mean you played the best, inherently, or we wouldn't have anything to discuss.) Do you know who led QBs in first downs this year? Ben Roethlisberger. Keenan Allen led WRs in first downs last year, and no one was arguing he was on the level of Brown or Jones. First downs aren't an instant reflection of quality. Normally it's just a result of volume of touches. Basically every year the league leader in rushing attempts leads in rushing first downs. It could mean it was deserved. It could just mean that team gave that guy the ball more. Same as RBs and QBs, this is where efficiency matters. If there is a player with more YPC, more YPT, but fewer targets, catches, and yards, all that means is that they were better, but thrown to less. It's the same reason a RB with less yards might be better than one with more, if the one with less had more YPC but fewer carries. And at the core, that is the player that Thomas is, to me. He's the RB that leads the league in carries, because that's how his team runs things, but doesn't look as impressive as some of the other guys, has worse efficiency stats than the other guys, but some will still praise the crap out of them for the bulk. And again, I want to point out, he didn't even lead in bulk. He was 6th in yards, 3rd in first downs, and 10th in TDs despite having the most catches. That's not an elite season, that's just a lot of catches. And keep in mind when we look at catch rate (and I assume that's what you're referencing when you say they "catch fewer when targeted") most upper level WRs have a near identical catch rate on catchable passes. Thomas has a higher catch rate because more of his targets were catchable. More of them were catchable because they were all short and he has Brees. Deandre Hopkins had no drops this year. So blaming him for the 48 targets he didn't catch is ridiculous. He had a 100% catch rate on catchable balls, so blaming him for a lower catch rate than Thomas is blaming him for his QB's inaccuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, MookieMonstah said: I just don't think thats fair logic. They don't ask him to because they have Ted Ginn who's entire game is deep speed and he's a great route runner, with a great catch radius and great hands. He's better apt to be Brees glue guy between 5-15 yards where Brees is deadly accurate. It just doesn't make sense to me. Brees deep ball is bad, its not good anymore. We saw that very clearly in the playoffs, and all season, he rarely attempts deep balls. When they do they're not overly accurate and it takes an hour for them to get there. With that said, why would you take by far your best receiver and run him vertically where Brees can't consistently hit him? It just wouldn't make sense. Whether or not he can run deep, he doesn't. It's either a hole in his game or a hole in his production. But I think it's absolutely better logic to reserve judgment until someone proves they can do something, than to assume that they can. I can't say definitively that Thomas can't be a deep threat, but I can say definitively that he hasn't been yet, and isn't right now. I remember similar debates way back when with Adrian Peterson's receiving abilities. You had one camp arguing he didn't contribute as a receiver. You had another saying well, he can, but they have Chester Taylor, so he doesn't need to. Fact was, it wasn't something he did, whether he could or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 34 minutes ago, Jakuvious said: But, a few things I can refute, without getting WR specific. First of all, it isn't just about getting open deeper. It's also about YAC. YPC isn't just depth of target, it's a mixture of things. Thomas isn't a big play guy as a short game receiver or a long game receiver. He isn't a deep threat, but he also isn't the guy who is going to take a slant 40 yards after breaking a tackle or two. Those are two major components in the game of a guy who is going to have a higher YPC, and they do matter. It isn't just going deeper, it's having a guy who can create something. A guy who can make a big play. Thomas had one this year, basically, that people point to. That's it. Thomas sure will catch a short pass though. Michael Thomas has 502 YAC, which is more than any other tier 1 WR, but okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, MookieMonstah said: Michael Thomas has 502 YAC, which is more than any other tier 1 WR, but okay. Not per reception. There was a whole paragraph in there about efficiency mattering. There was also one about statistics not directly equaling skill or performance. Sometimes I'm talking about what I actually see, not just what the stats say. Thomas isnt a throw him a screen and watch the magic happen kind of player. Not all the top guys are either. But that is something that'll elevate a guy like Hill, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Jakuvious said: Not per reception. There was a whole paragraph in there about efficiency mattering. There was also one about statistics not directly equaling skill or performance. Sometimes I'm talking about what I actually see, not just what the stats say. Thomas isnt a throw him a screen and watch the magic happen kind of player. Not all the top guys are either. But that is something that'll elevate a guy like Hill, for instance. So because he’s getting YAC differently than another guy it means less? Hm. He breaks tackles a decent bit from what I saw so I don’t get knocking him for his YAC ability. Seems like a bad analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, MookieMonstah said: So because he’s getting YAC differently than another guy it means less? Hm. He breaks tackles a decent bit from what I saw so I don’t get knocking him for his YAC ability. Seems like a bad analysis. Although I think you're still missing Jaks point, I would just like to point out that Thomas was 6th in Broken tackles on reception with 18 among all WR's (not including run plays -- he had 0)This is per SIS (before final revisions and are not quit finalized). Which sounds great right? Well not when you consider the fact that Thomas spends most of his time in a shorter range with a more crowded area which gives him more opportunities to break more tackles than most others. And it especially doesn't look as great when you consider it took 125 touches to get 18 broken tackles in the first place. Not saying that is bad but by comparison, Hill had the same amount of broken tackles on receptions on 109 touches, and ODB and AB both had 17 on 82 and 104 touches, respectively. To put this in better perspective, I'll note broken tackle per reception rate % for each WR. Thomas - 14.4% OBJ - 20.7% AB - 16.3% Hill - 16.5% Diggs - 21.4% Fitz(Slot, not really fair to add but because he was brought up) - 17.4% ^This is what efficiency means and looks like that Jak has been talking about. Just a FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 The point still remains that saying Thomas doesn’t get YAC is just wildly untrue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, MookieMonstah said: So because he’s getting YAC differently than another guy it means less? Hm. He breaks tackles a decent bit from what I saw so I don’t get knocking him for his YAC ability. Seems like a bad analysis. Circumstance matters. It amounts to the same thing for the game, the score, and the team, but when it comes to analyzing players? Yeah, details and circumstances matter. If WR A gets 20 yards of YAC because the DB falls down and they run untouched after the catch, and WR B gets 20 yards of YAC because they shrug off a tackler at the point of catch and spin away from another, would you not say WR B made the better and more impressive play despite the result being the same? This is comparing players, not contributions. How a player produces absolutely matters. I don't see Thomas often getting much for YAC that I wouldn't expect an average #1 to get. I could be wrong here and this is a more subjective point so you're more than welcome to disagree with me on this one, but that's my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, MookieMonstah said: The point still remains that saying Thomas doesn’t get YAC is just wildly untrue lol I never once said he doesn't get YAC. Anyone with that many yards and catches is going to get YAC. I said he doesn't create. He isn't a big play threat in the short game in addition to not being a big play threat in the long game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 On 1/22/2019 at 9:32 PM, JustAnotherFan said: Although I think you're still missing Jaks point, I would just like to point out that Thomas was 6th in Broken tackles on reception with 18 among all WR's (not including run plays -- he had 0)This is per SIS (before final revisions and are not quit finalized). Which sounds great right? Well not when you consider the fact that Thomas spends most of his time in a shorter range with a more crowded area which gives him more opportunities to break more tackles than most others. And it especially doesn't look as great when you consider it took 125 touches to get 18 broken tackles in the first place. Not saying that is bad but by comparison, Hill had the same amount of broken tackles on receptions on 109 touches, and ODB and AB both had 17 on 82 and 104 touches, respectively. To put this in better perspective, I'll note broken tackle per reception rate % for each WR. Thomas - 14.4% OBJ - 20.7% AB - 16.3% Hill - 16.5% Diggs - 21.4% Fitz(Slot, not really fair to add but because he was brought up) - 17.4% ^This is what efficiency means and looks like that Jak has been talking about. Just a FYI. It’s an ok stat but not perfect. It’s much easier to slip a tackle on a CB on the periphery than over the middle of the field where Thomas thrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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