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5 hours ago, Here'sJim said:

Mentioned in one of the articles, but someone already looked at the data and created a chart. Here it is.It appears going for it on 4th and 3 on your own 40 is supported by the data. One thing to keep in mind though.

"In one respect, it is possible that we may be underestimating the impact of a proper fourth down strategy. The recommendations of the two-dimensional 4th Down Bot in Figure 8 are somewhat naive, and do not account for time remaining and point differential. Thus, the Bot’s model alone is likely imperfect for each NFL decision, and identifying the best decision based on variables besides yards to go and field position would likely increase the benefit of aggressive fourth down behavior."



Trying to figure out how to read that chart, is it basically saying go for it every single 4th and 1 regardless of field position?

Man that's a tough sell for a lot of coaches lol

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I think the best teams in the current and future NFL, will be the ones that have the least amount of third down attempts as a whole.

I think 3rd down success rate is still important for obvious reasons, but Id love to see a chart of every teams % of 1st downs gained within the first two downs. Ie who is getting the most out of 1st and 2nd down situations and not even allowing 3rd downs to be of importance. 

Id be willing to bet large sums of money that if we were to look at this chart I noted and the highest percentages by team over the last 2 years, that the top 5 would be:

(*in no order)

LA Rams

New Orleans


Kansas City

New England


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2 hours ago, Speedyg said:

Trying to figure out how to read that chart, is it basically saying go for it every single 4th and 1 regardless of field position?

Man that's a tough sell for a lot of coaches lol

Yes, it's basically saying the risk of 4th and 1 on your own 9 does not outweigh the reward of keeping the drive alive. Overtime, they saw that it was easy to convert, and that it allowed the offense to score enough points to offset the occasional defensive stop.

Edited by Here'sJim
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As a Rockets fan, Morey ball sucks. Hence why the Rockets have never won a championship.

The only change that has revolutionized the league are the three pointers taken and that's been done by the World Champion Golden State Warriors. 

Is there something equivalent to taking more 3 pointers in the NFL? Maybe more deep passes? I don't know. I don't really think there's an apples for apples comparison. Basketball is a sport where those types of analytics make a lot more sense. I feel like in the NFL, teams over the decades have tried exploiting all sorts of things when it comes to what's more effective and smarter to do. The difference is the NFL requires you to be physically gifted in that aspect that in the case of the NBA a modern average joe can be great at 3 point shot to be a big part of a good team (i.e. JJ Redick). 

I just don't think with the amount of schemes out there and some of the historic offenses we've already seen (and defenses) that there is really much to exploit. The league rules have even changed the way special teams are now. I think going for it on 4th down, as most have mentioned already in this thread, is about the only thing I can think of that if proven analytically could become more of a widespread thing. Even going for 2 after a touchdown is something teams already do at their own risk. I don't think football was really meant to be overtaken analytically because it's so dependent on skill at some of the most important positions and a lot of those skills are derived from god-given abilities.

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