Leisher's 2019 Mock draft 1-19-18. Warning, your not going to like it.

[CWood21]

On 1/23/2019 at 2:12 PM, SSG said:

Sure they do.  They may not be stars year one as a receiver but they surely contribute.  They contribute just as much as a 4th offensive tackle or a back up DT which is what a lot of fans are hoping to draft with that #30 pick.  

 

How is 580 yards receiving on 700 offensive snaps a solid contribution for MVS but 550+ yards on 415 snaps or 500+ yards on 625 snaps not contributing?  Jimmy Graham seen 800 snaps with the offense last year.  Mark Andrews seen almost half the snaps and had only 85 fewer yards receiving despite playing with a RB at QB for a large portion of the season.  

Jimmy Graham's production is more than replaceable by a rookie TE.  Even then, I wasn't talking about replacing Graham.  He's not going anywhere because of that contract and we've got nothing on the roster behind him both Lewis and Kendricks being UFAs.

Except they really don't.  Your "best case" scenario gets you a league average TE.  The most productive rookie TE this year was Chris Herndon had 39 receptions, 502 receiving yards, and 4 TD receptions.  And he played in 62% of the offensive snaps.  Herndon was 16th in receptions and 17th in receiving yards.  On the other hand, Hayden Hurst was the first round pick of the Ravens and had 13 receptions, 163 receiving yards, and 1 TD reception playing 23% of the offensive snaps.  Hurst was 55th in receptions and 54th in receiving yards.  Best case scenario, you're getting a middle-of-the-pack TE.  Most likely, you're getting a fringe starter.  But yeah, the Packers are better off cutting Jimmy Graham because they're hurting for cap...

Adjust your evaluations.  In 2018, 2 TE had 500+ receiving yards and that was Chris Herndon.  Only 2 had 350+ receiving yards.  The ~35 receptions and 500 receiving yards is the middle of the pack starting TE, and that's a best case scenario.  That's not an upgrade over Jimmy Graham.

[CWood21]

On 1/24/2019 at 3:37 PM, Cheech said:

Not sure how a 4.7 TE is ever going to run by a 4.32 CB who was the first CB taken in the 2018 draft.  Fant does just that vs. Denzel Ward.

So - I could give a **** less what he's timed at.  He plays fast.  He gets behind linebackers and he outruns DB's.  I don't foresee that 42" vertical going away when the combine rolls around either.  

You're telling me that a CB whose back-pedaling and doesn't know the route is in the trail position.  Shocking.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 hours ago, SSG said:

Not sure if it matters all that much if a rookie TE can replace Graham this year.  Chances are good that this is his last year on the team and we've nothing behind him.  Reality is there aren't many positions that will give us an immediate impact as rookies.  A rookie back up TE is going to contribute just as much as a 4th offensive tackle or a 3rd or 4th DT.  Kendricks and Lewis combined played on almost 50% of the offensive snaps and they are both UFAs.  

A backup TE is not going to contribute anywhere near as much as the 3rd defensive lineman on this team. He likely wouldn't get near the snaps. 

Now much in the way that I'm doubtful any rookie TE is going to outplay Graham, I'm similarly skeptical that a DL that isn't Quinnen Williams is going to outplay Lowry, to say nothing if Wilkerson comes back. 

You're probably realistically only going to see an upgrade at one of the Edge spots, Safety, and Guard day 1. The rest you'll have somebody learn into it, and I'm not even confident about safety.

[Cheech]

24 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You're telling me that a CB whose back-pedaling and doesn't know the route is in the trail position.  Shocking.

I'm telling you a CB that ran a 4.32 and was taken 4th overall flipped his hips at the 18 when they were even and lost a step on Fant.  

 

FFS this isn't hard.  No way in hell Graham wins on that route.  No way in hell Graham offers Fant' s ability to separate vs. linebackers on a drag route.  Graham clearly offered nothing as a vertical threat where Fant will challenge any safety in the league.

 

It's a pretty fricken big deal if teams have to line a safety over the top of TE out of respect for his ability to stretch the middle of the field.  That opens up so many more 1 on 1 opportunities for all of the other receivers.

I'd still rather have Hock - but I won't buy for a second that old *** Jimmy Graham offers more to the offense.

[Cheech]

20 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

A backup TE is not going to contribute anywhere near as much as the 3rd defensive lineman on this team. He likely wouldn't get near the snaps. 

Now much in the way that I'm doubtful any rookie TE is going to outplay Graham, I'm similarly skeptical that a DL that isn't Quinnen Williams is going to outplay Lowry, to say nothing if Wilkerson comes back. 

You're probably realistically only going to see an upgrade at one of the Edge spots, Safety, and Guard day 1. The rest you'll have somebody learn into it, and I'm not even confident about safety.

I wouldn't argue with anything other than tight end.  I'd take a 3 or 4 year vet at safety who knows the defense over a rookie almost any day.  

DT is the deepest position on the team.  We still haven't seen all that Adams has to offer yet either.  

Guard and EDGE are no brainers.  I wouldn't hate to see Jonah Williams at 12 if he's legit (that I can't say.) Nagler opined that he could play guard a year and then slide out to RT in a year after Bulaga is done.  Maybe that player is Risner if he falls to 30.

[CWood21]

1 minute ago, Cheech said:

I'm telling you a CB that ran a 4.32 and was taken 4th overall flipped his hips at the 18 when they were even and lost a step on Fant.  

 

FFS this isn't hard.  No way in hell Graham wins on that route.  No way in hell Graham offers Fant' s ability to separate vs. linebackers on a drag route.  Graham clearly offered nothing as a vertical threat where Fant will challenge any safety in the league.

 

It's a pretty fricken big deal if teams have to line a safety over the top of TE out of respect for his ability to stretch the middle of the field.  That opens up so many more 1 on 1 opportunities for all of the other receivers.

I'd still rather have Hock - but I won't buy for a second that old *** Jimmy Graham offers more to the offense.

I'm telling you that a video doesn't make your argument true.  You can find a video of an inferior athlete looking better than a great athlete if you look hard enough.  Since 2010, there have only been 16 TEs who have ran a sub-4.55 forty.  They are Dorin Dickerson, Evan Engram, James Hanna, Ladarius Green, Rob Housler, Chris Gragg, AC Leonard, Coby Fleener, OJ Howard, Michael Egnew, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Virgil Green, Mike Gesicki, and Jaylen Samuels.  Of those 16, only 7 of them were picked in the first three rounds.  Most of them are the movement TE types.

Except Jimmy Graham has won on that route.  Just because the throw either didn't go to him or he dropped it doesn't mean he can't do it.  Fant wasn't even the most productive TE on his own team.  That should set off a red flag for you if you're pimping him as hard as you are.

If you think a rookie TE with years of history of not producing as a rookie is going to outproduce Jimmy Graham, this discussion isn't going anywhere.

[Cheech]

17 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm telling you that a video doesn't make your argument true.  You can find a video of an inferior athlete looking better than a great athlete if you look hard enough.  Since 2010, there have only been 16 TEs who have ran a sub-4.55 forty.  They are Dorin Dickerson, Evan Engram, James Hanna, Ladarius Green, Rob Housler, Chris Gragg, AC Leonard, Coby Fleener, OJ Howard, Michael Egnew, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Virgil Green, Mike Gesicki, and Jaylen Samuels.  Of those 16, only 7 of them were picked in the first three rounds.  Most of them are the movement TE types.

Except Jimmy Graham has won on that route.  Just because the throw either didn't go to him or he dropped it doesn't mean he can't do it.  Fant wasn't even the most productive TE on his own team.  That should set off a red flag for you if you're pimping him as hard as you are.

If you think a rookie TE with years of history of not producing as a rookie is going to outproduce Jimmy Graham, this discussion isn't going anywhere.

Graham may have won on that route - 5 or 6 years ago.  

Interesting that Kittle is on that list.  He went to Iowa.  Fant broke the 10 yard dash, pro agility drill, and vertical jump at TE - after his true sophomore year.  I don't know what his 40 will be (Iowa doesn't ever test the 40 outside of Pro Days), but we do know definitively that he's faster than Kittle in his first 10 yards.  Most scouts would argue that is more important anyway.  He's simply explosive.  42" vertical might not matter to some, but it is a very good indication that he's a different kind of athlete than most.  

I don't think you want to use the "He's not the only Mackey award winner on his team" argument.  That's just silly.  While his yards per catch dropped from 16.5 as a true sophomore to 13.3 as a junior - one can point to about 7 plays this year where he dropped a 40+ yard catch (2 or 3 of them) or he was overthrown/underthrown by Nate Stanley (many, many more).   Fant had more yards and TD's in one season than George Kittle had in his entire career at Iowa.  

I do believe that Fant would have been a better fit in MM's offense.  He could have run 2-3 routes all season and out-produced Graham.  He's a man-coverage beater.  He consistently wins on drag and out routes because he has incredibly fluid hips and short area burst to create 3 and 4 yards of separation.  If defenders jump that route you could throw in the wheel route and any defender is toast.  He can get to those soft spots in cover-2 better than anyone at TE in this draft.  Again - I hardly even have to mention his ability to threaten the deep middle of the field.  Just watch his highlights.  

 

Now - I've said multiple times that I would rather have TJ Hock this year.  If the assumptions are true - and LF's offense will mirror Shannahan's concepts - Hock offers more as an in-line TE.  He can block in pass pro and he's a monster in the run game.  And I don't want to hear that blocking doesn't matter for a TE.  BS.  Hock doesn't have near the fluidity at the top of his route that Fant does.  He doesn't have the same hips - he's more of a straight line athlete like Kittle.  I like Hock's mentality after the catch as well.  When he's up to speed he's hard to take down.  But he also looks for contact which sets up his ability to hurdle defenders when they go low.  I don't think Fant enjoys contact as much as TJ.    

 

 

[SSG]

19 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

A backup TE is not going to contribute anywhere near as much as the 3rd defensive lineman on this team. He likely wouldn't get near the snaps. 

Now much in the way that I'm doubtful any rookie TE is going to outplay Graham, I'm similarly skeptical that a DL that isn't Quinnen Williams is going to outplay Lowry, to say nothing if Wilkerson comes back. 

You're probably realistically only going to see an upgrade at one of the Edge spots, Safety, and Guard day 1. The rest you'll have somebody learn into it, and I'm not even confident about safety.

I said 3rd or 4th DT as there is little to no guarantee a rookie is going to beat out Adams, a former top 100 draft pick who started coming on at the end of the season.  Even then, there were only 2 Defensive lineman on the roster who played more than the 500 snaps that Kendricks/ Lewis played.  Saying that though, it's hard to give it an honest comparison given the injuries to Wilkerson and Daniels who would have likely played more snaps than the the Kendrick/ Lewis pair.  

Last year LAF had 2 TEs who played 50% or more of their offensive snaps (49% by their #2 TE and 62% by the replacement for Walker).  He also had 2 more that played almost 20% (19.5% and 18%).  I think we could be under estimating how much the new coach uses TEs.  

[SSG]

20 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm telling you that a video doesn't make your argument true.  You can find a video of an inferior athlete looking better than a great athlete if you look hard enough.  Since 2010, there have only been 16 TEs who have ran a sub-4.55 forty.  They are Dorin Dickerson, Evan Engram, James Hanna, Ladarius Green, Rob Housler, Chris Gragg, AC Leonard, Coby Fleener, OJ Howard, Michael Egnew, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Virgil Green, Mike Gesicki, and Jaylen Samuels.  Of those 16, only 7 of them were picked in the first three rounds.  Most of them are the movement TE types.

Except Jimmy Graham has won on that route.  Just because the throw either didn't go to him or he dropped it doesn't mean he can't do it.  Fant wasn't even the most productive TE on his own team.  That should set off a red flag for you if you're pimping him as hard as you are.

If you think a rookie TE with years of history of not producing as a rookie is going to outproduce Jimmy Graham, this discussion isn't going anywhere.

I don't know what past TEs have to do with Fant.  The fact that Hockenson had more yards than Fant this year doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  The guy has 1000 yards receiving and 18 TDs over the last 2 years.  

Lets be real.  Jimmy Graham had 800 snaps and was second on the team in targets.  His 635 yards and 2 TDs is horrid production when looking at the massive role he had in the offense.  Matter of fact, its easily the worst season that a #2 target has had in Green Bay since AR12 took over.  You give any warm body TE 800 snaps with the offense and the second most targets and he'll produce the piddling production Graham gave the offense last year.  Mark Andrews had 80 fewer receiving yards and more TDs as the #4 option on a run first team (Baltimore) and he did it with half the stats.  The idea that Graham's production is irreplaceable borders on laughable given the massive role he had in the offense.  

You are right though.  As long as some keep trying to making Jimmy Graham's production out to be elite while ignoring the huge role he had in the offense this discussion isn't going anywhere.  It's no wonder why the offense wasn't good enough to make the playoffs and had long stretches where it looked as bad as any unit in the NFL.  I'd bet, there isn't another playoff team this year that had 10 halves of football where their offense couldn't manage more than 7 points.  

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, SSG said:

I said 3rd or 4th DT as there is little to no guarantee a rookie is going to beat out Adams, a former top 100 draft pick who started coming on at the end of the season.  Even then, there were only 2 Defensive lineman on the roster who played more than the 500 snaps that Kendricks/ Lewis played.  Saying that though, it's hard to give it an honest comparison given the injuries to Wilkerson and Daniels who would have likely played more snaps than the the Kendrick/ Lewis pair.  

Last year LAF had 2 TEs who played 50% or more of their offensive snaps (49% by their #2 TE and 62% by the replacement for Walker).  He also had 2 more that played almost 20% (19.5% and 18%).  I think we could be under estimating how much the new coach uses TEs.  

The Titans averaged 1.5 TEs per snap. Graham will be the better receiver, whatever vet we have on the roster will be the better blocker. That will take up the vast majority of the snaps. 

The Packagers averaged 2.34 DL per play last year. Those guys will be subbed with some frequency

DL snaps are WAY WAY WAY more valuable than TE snaps. It's not even comparable. 

[CWood21]

On 1/26/2019 at 10:39 AM, Cheech said:

Graham may have won on that route - 5 or 6 years ago.  

Interesting that Kittle is on that list.  He went to Iowa.  Fant broke the 10 yard dash, pro agility drill, and vertical jump at TE - after his true sophomore year.  I don't know what his 40 will be (Iowa doesn't ever test the 40 outside of Pro Days), but we do know definitively that he's faster than Kittle in his first 10 yards.  Most scouts would argue that is more important anyway.  He's simply explosive.  42" vertical might not matter to some, but it is a very good indication that he's a different kind of athlete than most.  

You're missing the entire point of the original discussion.  Denzel Ward supposedly ran a 4.23 forty while at Ohio State.  What did he run at the Combine?  He ran a 4.32 forty, which doesn't seem like a lot, but the difference between 4.5 and 4.6 is pretty significant.  The point I'm (and others) are trying to get is that you should approach numbers from the programs as skeptical.  How many times have we seen DBs who were listed at 6'0", but ended up coming in sub-5'10"?  Too many to count.  Until we get something where we can compare him against a universal standard, it's best to approach those numbers with skepticism.  Especially if they seem too good to be true.

On 1/26/2019 at 10:39 AM, Cheech said:

I don't think you want to use the "He's not the only Mackey award winner on his team" argument.  That's just silly.  While his yards per catch dropped from 16.5 as a true sophomore to 13.3 as a junior - one can point to about 7 plays this year where he dropped a 40+ yard catch (2 or 3 of them) or he was overthrown/underthrown by Nate Stanley (many, many more).   Fant had more yards and TD's in one season than George Kittle had in his entire career at Iowa.  

You can't give the benefit of the doubt for one player, and not for the other.  If you're going to use that logic, you need to apply it universally.  Not just as you deem fit.

[CWood21]

On 1/26/2019 at 2:27 PM, SSG said:

I don't know what past TEs have to do with Fant.  The fact that Hockenson had more yards than Fant this year doesn't mean a whole lot to me.  The guy has 1000 yards receiving and 18 TDs over the last 2 years.  

Lets be real.  Jimmy Graham had 800 snaps and was second on the team in targets.  His 635 yards and 2 TDs is horrid production when looking at the massive role he had in the offense.  Matter of fact, its easily the worst season that a #2 target has had in Green Bay since AR12 took over.  You give any warm body TE 800 snaps with the offense and the second most targets and he'll produce the piddling production Graham gave the offense last year.  Mark Andrews had 80 fewer receiving yards and more TDs as the #4 option on a run first team (Baltimore) and he did it with half the stats.  The idea that Graham's production is irreplaceable borders on laughable given the massive role he had in the offense.  

You are right though.  As long as some keep trying to making Jimmy Graham's production out to be elite while ignoring the huge role he had in the offense this discussion isn't going anywhere.  It's no wonder why the offense wasn't good enough to make the playoffs and had long stretches where it looked as bad as any unit in the NFL.  I'd bet, there isn't another playoff team this year that had 10 halves of football where their offense couldn't manage more than 7 points.  

Generally speaking, history is the best predictor of the future.  Let's put something into perspective.  There have only been FIVE rookie TEs who have caught at least 50 balls: Jeremy Shockey (2002), Evan Engram (2017), John Carlson (2008), Tim Wright (2013), and Jermaine Gresham (2010).  There have been 16 rookie TEs who have caught at least 40 balls.  But you're right, I'm mistaken in thinking that a rookie TE is suddenly going to magically fix Rodgers' issues with throwing to young players.

Let's look at the numbers, specifically # of snaps and targets and snaps per target:

MVS: 691 snaps/73 targets (9.5 snaps per target)
ESB: 358/36 (9.9)
Graham: 795/89 (8.9)
Cobb: 466/61 (7.6)
Adams: 953/169 (5.6)

What does that tell us?  Rodgers trusted two players last year, and one of them was in and out of the lineup.  In terms of trust level, Jimmy Graham was closer to the rookie than he was Randall Cobb.  Let that sink in.  The fact is that Jimmy Graham was more productive than Randall Cobb, yet Cobb got more attention from Rodgers.  That's not by accident.

And no, the logic that you give any TE 800+ snaps and they're going to be productive.  This past season, there were 15 players with at least 50 targets.  Of the 13 TEs with less targets than him (and more than 50 targets), only Mark Andrews, Chris Herndon, Evan Engram, Vance McDonald, and Rob Gronkowski had a higher YPR.  Jimmy Graham was slightly less productive than Rob Gronkowski, but there isn't a SINGLE Patriots' fan who thinks they need to replace him.  This is quickly becoming the Bryan Bulaga discussion all over again.

[CWood21]

On 1/26/2019 at 2:27 PM, SSG said:

You are right though.  As long as some keep trying to making Jimmy Graham's production out to be elite while ignoring the huge role he had in the offense this discussion isn't going anywhere.  It's no wonder why the offense wasn't good enough to make the playoffs and had long stretches where it looked as bad as any unit in the NFL.  I'd bet, there isn't another playoff team this year that had 10 halves of football where their offense couldn't manage more than 7 points. 

When have I EVER said his production was elite?  I said he was top 10 by most statistics.  Nothing else.

[CWood21]

Let's put things into perspective, the top 5 rookie season for TE averaged 60 receptions, 657 receiving yards, and 4.4 TD on 112 targets.  That averages out to a catch rate of 53.6%,  yards per target of 5.9, and 25.5 targets per TD reception.  This past season, Jimmy Graham has 55 receptions, 636 receiving yards, and 2 TD receptions on 89 targets.  That's a catch rate of 61.8%, 7.1 yards per target, and 44.5 targets per TD reception.  So the best case scenario isn't as good as Jimmy Graham and his albatross of a contract.

[gizmo2012]

On 1/19/2019 at 1:36 PM, Golfman said:

Confirmed! I don't like it one bit. Trading Daniels is one of the DUMBEST things I've ever heard of doing. Thinking you could get ANYTHING in a trade for Perry is second! Then you want to give LeVeon Bell 21 million a year. 

I'd have to start rooting for another team is we did this crap. 

Packers do not have the money to sign Bell and Barr and I agree nobody will trade for Perry with his injury history.