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SemperFeist

Kyle Rudolph Named Walter Payton Man of the Year

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7 hours ago, RpMc said:

If he takes a hefty pay cut, sure, but I’d still rather just cut bait.

It has nothing to do with wanting a shiny new toy, and everything to do with my belief that he’s only as productive as he is because he gets snaps. I don’t think there would be a big difference in tight end production if Morgan got the snaps over Rudolph, and we could arguably be a more balanced offense. 

You would certainly not be forced into drafting a tight end. You could sign a Lance Kendricks, Maxx Williams, or Jeff Heuerman type free agent to pair with Morgan as your 1a/1b tight ends. Then, if the draft falls in a way where you can get an impact player, go for it. 

There is really nothing to warrant your belief that Morgan would be just as productive as Rudolph, though. He is a great blocker and has made a few nice plays in the passing game, but not much else.

Rudolph is not a great player. He is good. He isn't elusive, and isn't powerful, but he is a steady, productive TE. If we are in win now mode, outright cutting him on a belief that David Morgan maybe could be productive, and then signing a bad player to be TE2 seems like a mistake.

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I like David Morgan, he’s a perfect TE2. But he’s not a TE1, unless all you plan on doing is having your TE run 3 yard drag routes and sneak out into the flats while their primary responsibility is to block on a play. Because that’s all Morgan does. Outside of the week 17 game against Chicago in 2017, Morgan has never caught a pass where he’s run more than 5 yards past the LOS.

So, yes. Let’s make a TE who’s really been nothing more than a checkdown option, and sign a TE like Maxx Williams, who isn’t even the TE3 on his own roster, to replace one of the more productive TEs in the league. Brilliant!

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1 hour ago, vikestyle said:

outright cutting him on a belief that David Morgan maybe could be productive, and then signing a bad player to be TE2 seems like a mistake.

I don't know that it would be a huge mistake. I mean, sure, the part about believing Morgan and a low end free agent can replace Rudolph's production shows extreme optimism but that doesn't mean cutting Rudolph and putting those resources into the team somewhere else wouldn't improve the team.

If I was to choose between starting Kyle Rudolph at TE and something like a Brett Jones (who the team gave up a draft pick and $3M to have for a single year) at OG or alternatively pumping Rudolph's $7M into a contract for Roger Saffold to start alongside David Morgan I would definitely feel better about the production of the offense in the scenario where Rudolph is cut and replaced with Morgan.

Having a TE that can catch passes more than of the dump off variety isn't a requirement for a productive offense in the NFL. Having a decent offensive line is more or less a requirement if you don't have an elite QB. Getting rid of Rudolph would make finding a productive WR3 more of a priority but those can be had for much less than $7M. Look at the WR3's employed by the 32 teams in the league last year and their average salary. It's been some time since I looked but it will be something like $2M or less even after eliminating guys on rookie contracts. But shoot, I would trot Brandon Zylstra or Chad Beebe out there as WR3 with David Morgan and Saffold before and like my chances still over Danny Isidora, Rudolph, and Laquan Treadwell.

Now, I understand that Saffold likely never makes it to free agency. I wouldn't be looking to pull the plug on Rudolph until doming to terms with a free agent like that. Because, I am not that optimistic about the production of the replacements for Rudolph that are currently under contract. Without doubt, I would be looking for alternatives on offense and be willing to cut Kyle to make it happen.

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Or, they could just create cap space to make those moves in a multitude of other ways. 

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54 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

 

So, yes. Let’s make a TE who’s really been nothing more than a checkdown option, and sign a TE like Maxx Williams, who isn’t even the TE3 on his own roster, to replace one of the more productive TEs in the league. Brilliant!

Production is as much a measure of opportunity as it is ability. We could get just as much “production” out of the tight end position platooning two players for a hell of a lot less cap room - those are the decisions you have to make when you have a $28M dollar QB. You can’t have a fourth offensive option making the type of money he’s making when you’ve got holes to fill elsewhere.  Like I said in your previous post, if he takes a massive pay cut, then I don’t mind him staying, but I feel that’s very unlikely to happen. If he won’t accept a pay cut, I cut him.

Rudolph doesn’t have much left in the tank and his lack of open field athleticism, blocking, and speed down the seam are going to continue to hinder his overall value to the offense. 

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29 minutes ago, RpMc said:

Production is as much a measure of opportunity as it is ability. We could get just as much “production” out of the tight end position platooning two players for a hell of a lot less cap room - those are the decisions you have to make when you have a $28M dollar QB. You can’t have a fourth offensive option making the type of money he’s making when you’ve got holes to fill elsewhere.  Like I said in your previous post, if he takes a massive pay cut, then I don’t mind him staying, but I feel that’s very unlikely to happen. If he won’t accept a pay cut, I cut him.

Rudolph doesn’t have much left in the tank and his lack of open field athleticism, blocking, and speed down the seam are going to continue to hinder his overall value to the offense. 

I mean how do you know we could replace the production with one mediocre and one bad player? Rudolph isn't breaking records, but he's considerably better in the pass game than the alternatives you listed. I also want Rudolph to restructure and think his current cap hit exceeds his value, but to think you can just go sign some bum to replace him is silly. Didn't work out with Pruitt, Hodges, or Conklin. 

If the "platoon 2 guys" method worked, we should do it at a lot of other positions. Platoon Compton and Isidora at guard. Are we happy with  the platoon of Robinson and Treadwell at WR3? I just don't think we need to create more needs for this team.

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33 minutes ago, RpMc said:

Production is as much a measure of opportunity as it is ability.

That’s just not true. Otherwise we could just cut Diggs, Thielen, or any other productive player and replace them with a platoon of players. 

And im not really sure how you can say Rudolph doesn’t have much left in the tank. He’s been extremely consistent over the past four seasons. No reason to believe that it’s going to change. 

Quite frankly, you sound like you expect them to just easily replace him with a Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz type tight end, and that’s just not realistic. 

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3 minutes ago, vikestyle said:

I just don't think we need to create more needs for this team.

Louder for the ones in the back

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26 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

That’s just not true. Otherwise we could just cut Diggs, Thielen, or any other productive player and replace them with a platoon of players. 

And im not really sure how you can say Rudolph doesn’t have much left in the tank. He’s been extremely consistent over the past four seasons. No reason to believe that it’s going to change. 

Quite frankly, you sound like you expect them to just easily replace him with a Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz type tight end, and that’s just not realistic. 

What in my post sounds like I’m asking the to find an Ertz or Kelce type easily? I’m talking about a platoon... but read isn’t my post whatever you will. 

As far as consistency goes, yeah, he’s averaged roughly ten yards per catch the last four years (not anywhere near the top ten tight end her being paid as), but the only other consistency from him, outside of one year the last four years, is that he’s been averaging 40 yards per game or less. To me, that’s not worth his cap hit when we have three other options on the offense that demand more touches than he does, he offers little as a blocker, and isn’t a dynamic threat.... the difference between he, Thielen, and Diggs since you tried to use them in your argument. He doesn’t do one thing that you can point to as game changing... Diggs and Thielen both have their route running and contested catch ability. 

His type of production, to me, is something that is replaceable. Especially when we are hurting for cap room, have glaring holes on the offensive line, and could use the extra space to retain players on the defensive side of the ball. 

Again, if he takes a pay cut more in line with what he actually brings the team (on the field, because there’s no doubt he brings a ton off of it), I’m all for him staying. But if I have to create cap room, outside of the obvious moves involving Sendejo/Remmers, I’m cutting Rudolph before restructuring someone else and pushing more money into the future that could cause additional problems. 

Better move on from him one year early, than cause potential cap issues in the future. 

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I rescind my previous posts...

 

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23 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

Louder for the ones in the back

Agreed.  I'm all for maybe lowering his cap number with an extension through 2021 (which would put him at 32 yrs old), but not a fan of just outright cutting bait as they don't need to create additional needs.  An extension through 2021 would allow them to consider cutting bait completely after the 2020 season once they've found a replacement (ala Brian Robison) or allow him to just retire after the contract runs out (and would also be the same year that both Riley Reiff and Harry's contracts run out).  

Edited by swede700

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6 hours ago, swede700 said:

Agreed.  I'm all for maybe lowering his cap number with an extension through 2021 (which would put him at 32 yrs old), but not a fan of just outright cutting bait as they don't need to create additional needs.  An extension through 2021 would allow them to consider cutting bait completely after the 2020 season once they've found a replacement (ala Brian Robison) or allow him to just retire after the contract runs out (and would also be the same year that both Riley Reiff and Harry's contracts run out).  

That sounds nice, but the team can't force Rudolph to sign an extension. What do you do if Rudolph won't rework his deal? I don't think anyone has objected to keeping him if he is willing to rework it to lower his cost this year. That is not something the team can do unilaterally. The team can ask him to do something. Other than that, they have to choose between paying him his full salary or cutting him.

Even then, I would only cut him if it allowed the team to sign a nice upgrade somewhere else that would make the overall offense more productive than they would be with Rudolph and without the alternative player.

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48 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

That sounds nice, but the team can't force Rudolph to sign an extension. What do you do if Rudolph won't rework his deal? I don't think anyone has objected to keeping him if he is willing to rework it to lower his cost this year. That is not something the team can do unilaterally. The team can ask him to do something. Other than that, they have to choose between paying him his full salary or cutting him.

Even then, I would only cut him if it allowed the team to sign a nice upgrade somewhere else that would make the overall offense more productive than they would be with Rudolph and without the alternative player.

While I understand that's a possibility, that he'll refuse to sign an extension or reduce his paycheck, I also think he understands the business like Brian Robison and Chad Greenway did as well.  If he refuses to do so, then they'll likely be left with no other option than cutting him outright. 

While never say never, he's already entrenched in the community with his family, so it's highly likely that he'd agree to it.  

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Can’t say I’m for a Rudolph extension (obviously given my current stance on him) to lower his cap hit. 

He’s going to be 30 halfway through next season and doesn’t play the type of game that ages well. 

Paycut or cut; don’t push more money into the future with him. 

Edited by RpMc

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1 hour ago, RpMc said:

Paycut or cut; don’t push more money into the future with him. 

I understand this thinking but I would refine it somewhat for flexibility. As long as the team doesn't guarantee him any more than they want to pay him this year the details of the extension do not much matter to me.

For example, if they team thinks he is worth $5M for the year and they sign him to an extension that gives him a $3M signing bonus, $2M guaranteed base salary in 2019, and two additional non-guaranteed years at whatever value leaving him with a $3M cap hit this year with $2M charged against future cap I see no way that is worse for the team than paying out all $5M of it this year.

Assuming the salaries for the next two years would be reasonable it is better for the team to have two option years tacked onto the end. Sure, the team could be left with $2M dead next year (or $1M in each in '20 and '21 if they designate him a post June 1 cut) if they don't want to pick up the option but they could completely eliminate that risk by simply carrying over the extra $2M saved this year essentially getting option years for no additional risk.

In the end of the day, $2M dead in the future is better for the team than $2M spent now. Inflation will make that $2M a smaller portion of the cap in the future than it would be today. Also, I think the team should be doing a bit of pushing cap into the future the next couple years anyway until they can get out under that burdensome Cousins contract. At that point, if the draft goes right in one of the next couple years they will have a QB on a rookie salary. Or they will have won a Super Bowl with Cousins and they will be paying out a new contract to him but any scenario that involves winning a Super Bowl is a good scenario to me even it it puts the team in a bad situation for a few years afterwards.

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