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Super Bowl LIII: New England Patriots (11-5) vs St. Louis Rams (13-3)

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gronk targeted 11 times, more than Edelman, last night. he turning it up when it matters?

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Shaq Mason was the best guard in the league this year.

He's staking his reputation on his ability to contain Aaron Donald.

That's going to be the battle that decides this game. 

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In season's in which he starts more than 1 game, Brady's SB appearance % is 53% of the time. 

For perspective:

Lebron: 40%

MJ: 40%

Montana: 26%

Elway: 31%

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3 hours ago, Asciimo said:

gronk targeted 11 times, more than Edelman, last night. he turning it up when it matters?

yep. He was being rested during the season

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Decided to take a look at the Super Bowl matchup with the lense of a "new" statistic, Yards Above Average. It's pretty easy. It just takes Adjusted Yards (+20 for touchdowns, -45 for turnovers) and multiplies by attempts, then subtracts the average (from the last three years) multiplied by the same number of attempts. For example, say Player 1 had an AY/A (Adjusted Yards Per Attempt) of 7 on 50 attempts. The NFL average over the last three years is 6.9667, roughly. Multiplying both by 50, you get 350 and 348.335, so the player's Yards Above Average is 1.665, or 0.0333 per attempt.

Quarterbacks Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Jared Goff Tom Brady
AY/A 8.5 7.8
Attempts 561 570
YAA +860.20 +475.00
YAA / Attempt +1.53 +0.83
Playoff AY/A 6.7 7.1
Playoff Att. 68 90
Playoff YAA -18.13 +12.00
Playoff YAA/A -0.27 +0.02

Running Backs Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Todd Gurley II Sony Michel
AY/C 6.2 4.8
Carries 256 209
YAA +459.70 +101.30
YAA / Carry +1.80 +0.48
Playoff AY/C 8.3 6.5
Playoff Carries 20 53
Playoff YAA +77.91 +111.07
Playoff YAA/C +3.90 +2.10

Pass Defense Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Los Angeles New England
AY/A 7.3 6.5
Attempts 533 605
YAA +177.67 -282.33
YAA / Attempt +0.33 -0.47
Playoff AY/A 6.9 6.9
Playoff Att. 73 82
Playoff YAA -4.87 -5.47
Playoff YAA/A -0.07 -0.07

*For defenses, a negative number is better because you want to give up less than the average number of yards, TDs, etc.

Rush Defense Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Los Angeles New England
AY/C 5.3 4.7
Carries 386 367
YAA +345.74 +108.52
YAA / Carry +0.90 +0.30
Playoff AY/C 3.21 4.55
Playoff Carries 43 22
Playoff YAA -51.36 +3.21
Playoff YAA/C -1.19 +0.15

On the rate stats (not carries or attempts) that weren't tied, it's a dead split at 11 to 11, mostly because of Gurley's ridiculous season. I think that might tell us something about Belichick's gameplan. 

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I don't exactly follow the formula but I would suggest for your own sake to include CJ Anderson since Gurley is banged up/ceding carries. @AlNFL19

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2 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

I don't exactly follow the formula but I would suggest for your own sake to include CJ Anderson since Gurley is banged up/ceding carries. @AlNFL19

Okay, I'll try to explain it a little better:

It's basically just trying to find the yardage a player rushed / passed for over the league average. For example, if a player passed for 10 yards per attempt on 250 throws and the NFL average is 6 yards per attempt, he finished with 2,500 yards. Now take that average, 8, and multiply it by 250, and you get 2,000, so the average player would throw for 2,000 yards on the same number of throws. Take the difference, 500, and that's the player's Yards Above Average.

It's just that but with one change: to account for touchdowns and interceptions / fumbles, instead of yards per attempt or per carry, it uses something called Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A). It adds 20 for every touchdown and subtracts 45 for every interception, based on some studies some people at Pro Football Reference did. I used that figure instead of just straight up yards because I think it's a better estimate of total value (I mean, that's ultimately why AY/A exists, isn't it?).

Lmk if that's not a good explanation either.

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Just now, DoleINGout said:

Makes sense @AlNFL19 but what about CJ Anderson recently?

Taking a look at him now

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@DoleINGout Okay, here's the RB table updated w/ Anderson's numbers:

Running Backs Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Todd Gurley II C.J. Anderson Sony Michel
AY/C 6.2 6.6 4.8
Carries 256 67 209
YAA +459.70 +147.11 +101.30
YAA / Carry +1.80 +2.20 +0.48
Playoff AY/C 8.3 5.3 6.5
Playoff Carries 20 39 53
Playoff YAA +77.91 +34.93 +111.07
Playoff YAA/C +3.90 +0.90 +2.10

Still an 11-11 split with the rate stats in total.

Edited by AlNFL19

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3 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Patriots are now 6-0 against playoff teams

Yet all of their losses were against nonplayoff teams.

Jackie-Chan-WTF-Meme.png&f=1

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CJ Anderson scares me more than Gurley... he knows how to burn us.

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also, how many organs do I have to donate for the pats to finally win a SB comfortably? why does it always have to boil down to the last drive. -_-

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