Asciimo Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 gronk targeted 11 times, more than Edelman, last night. he turning it up when it matters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Shaq Mason was the best guard in the league this year. He's staking his reputation on his ability to contain Aaron Donald. That's going to be the battle that decides this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadpulse Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 In season's in which he starts more than 1 game, Brady's SB appearance % is 53% of the time. For perspective: Lebron: 40% MJ: 40% Montana: 26% Elway: 31% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Asciimo said: gronk targeted 11 times, more than Edelman, last night. he turning it up when it matters? yep. He was being rested during the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Patriots will win 34-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Patriots are now 6-0 against playoff teams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Decided to take a look at the Super Bowl matchup with the lense of a "new" statistic, Yards Above Average. It's pretty easy. It just takes Adjusted Yards (+20 for touchdowns, -45 for turnovers) and multiplies by attempts, then subtracts the average (from the last three years) multiplied by the same number of attempts. For example, say Player 1 had an AY/A (Adjusted Yards Per Attempt) of 7 on 50 attempts. The NFL average over the last three years is 6.9667, roughly. Multiplying both by 50, you get 350 and 348.335, so the player's Yards Above Average is 1.665, or 0.0333 per attempt. Quarterbacks Yards Above Average Statistics Statistic Jared Goff Tom Brady AY/A 8.5 7.8 Attempts 561 570 YAA +860.20 +475.00 YAA / Attempt +1.53 +0.83 Playoff AY/A 6.7 7.1 Playoff Att. 68 90 Playoff YAA -18.13 +12.00 Playoff YAA/A -0.27 +0.02 Running Backs Yards Above Average Statistics Statistic Todd Gurley II Sony Michel AY/C 6.2 4.8 Carries 256 209 YAA +459.70 +101.30 YAA / Carry +1.80 +0.48 Playoff AY/C 8.3 6.5 Playoff Carries 20 53 Playoff YAA +77.91 +111.07 Playoff YAA/C +3.90 +2.10 Pass Defense Yards Above Average Statistics Statistic Los Angeles New England AY/A 7.3 6.5 Attempts 533 605 YAA +177.67 -282.33 YAA / Attempt +0.33 -0.47 Playoff AY/A 6.9 6.9 Playoff Att. 73 82 Playoff YAA -4.87 -5.47 Playoff YAA/A -0.07 -0.07 *For defenses, a negative number is better because you want to give up less than the average number of yards, TDs, etc. Rush Defense Yards Above Average Statistics Statistic Los Angeles New England AY/C 5.3 4.7 Carries 386 367 YAA +345.74 +108.52 YAA / Carry +0.90 +0.30 Playoff AY/C 3.21 4.55 Playoff Carries 43 22 Playoff YAA -51.36 +3.21 Playoff YAA/C -1.19 +0.15 On the rate stats (not carries or attempts) that weren't tied, it's a dead split at 11 to 11, mostly because of Gurley's ridiculous season. I think that might tell us something about Belichick's gameplan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I don't exactly follow the formula but I would suggest for your own sake to include CJ Anderson since Gurley is banged up/ceding carries. @AlNFL19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, DoleINGout said: I don't exactly follow the formula but I would suggest for your own sake to include CJ Anderson since Gurley is banged up/ceding carries. @AlNFL19 Okay, I'll try to explain it a little better: It's basically just trying to find the yardage a player rushed / passed for over the league average. For example, if a player passed for 10 yards per attempt on 250 throws and the NFL average is 6 yards per attempt, he finished with 2,500 yards. Now take that average, 8, and multiply it by 250, and you get 2,000, so the average player would throw for 2,000 yards on the same number of throws. Take the difference, 500, and that's the player's Yards Above Average. It's just that but with one change: to account for touchdowns and interceptions / fumbles, instead of yards per attempt or per carry, it uses something called Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A). It adds 20 for every touchdown and subtracts 45 for every interception, based on some studies some people at Pro Football Reference did. I used that figure instead of just straight up yards because I think it's a better estimate of total value (I mean, that's ultimately why AY/A exists, isn't it?). Lmk if that's not a good explanation either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Makes sense @AlNFL19 but what about CJ Anderson recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, DoleINGout said: Makes sense @AlNFL19 but what about CJ Anderson recently? Taking a look at him now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 @DoleINGout Okay, here's the RB table updated w/ Anderson's numbers: Running Backs Yards Above Average Statistics Statistic Todd Gurley II C.J. Anderson Sony Michel AY/C 6.2 6.6 4.8 Carries 256 67 209 YAA +459.70 +147.11 +101.30 YAA / Carry +1.80 +2.20 +0.48 Playoff AY/C 8.3 5.3 6.5 Playoff Carries 20 39 53 Playoff YAA +77.91 +34.93 +111.07 Playoff YAA/C +3.90 +0.90 +2.10 Still an 11-11 split with the rate stats in total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elky Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 hours ago, SBLIII said: Patriots are now 6-0 against playoff teams Yet all of their losses were against nonplayoff teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asciimo Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 CJ Anderson scares me more than Gurley... he knows how to burn us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asciimo Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 also, how many organs do I have to donate for the pats to finally win a SB comfortably? why does it always have to boil down to the last drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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