Nextyearfordaboyz Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, wwhickok said: I corrected myself. I typed all that and then realized. Corrected myself in the same post. Still, I was talking about game winning drives and not wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Just now, Nextyearfordaboyz said: Still, I was talking about game winning drives and not wins. Fair enough. But may I argue that Ezekiel Elliot was a LARGE factor in those winning drives as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBoys Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, wwhickok said: Fair enough. But may I argue that Ezekiel Elliot was a LARGE factor in those winning drives as well. This was a great game winning drive by Dak: https://youtu.be/JJ8b6G895v4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, DaBoys said: This was a great game winning drive by Dak: https://youtu.be/JJ8b6G895v4 That was a great run by Elliot against our pathetic defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextyearfordaboyz Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 1 hour ago, wwhickok said: Fair enough. But may I argue that Ezekiel Elliot was a LARGE factor in those winning drives as well. I’m sure you’ve done a very close analysis on every game winning drive? Football is a team game. You need everyone. But Dak isn’t at the top of that list by random chance. His ability to keep us in games by not making stupid decisions and his ability to come through in the clutch is absolutely valuable and rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said: I’m sure you’ve done a very close analysis on every game winning drive? Football is a team game. You need everyone. But Dak isn’t at the top of that list by random chance. His ability to keep us in games by not making stupid decisions and his ability to come through in the clutch is absolutely valuable and rare. I think thats a fair statement. But i also dont see him as the difference between winning or not winning a SB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 4 hours ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said: I’m sure you’ve done a very close analysis on every game winning drive? Football is a team game. You need everyone. But Dak isn’t at the top of that list by random chance. His ability to keep us in games by not making stupid decisions and his ability to come through in the clutch is absolutely valuable and rare. Dak has shown that he can come through in the clutch but there were a fair amount of games that were close because Dak failed to make plays I.e. the Saints game last year. Can Dak continue to win games if he loses pieces around him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizardHawk Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 17 minutes ago, CAPJ said: Dak has shown that he can come through in the clutch but there were a fair amount of games that were close because Dak failed to make plays I.e. the Saints game last year. Can Dak continue to win games if he loses pieces around him? How many pieces are we talking? If it’s just Zeke, sure he can. If you’re talking 3-4 others pieces, idk. Maybe. Depends on who the replacements are. The variables could take this a 100 different directions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBoys Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/front-office/2018/05/29/does-a-high-salary-veteran-qb-hurt-your-super-bowl-chances/ I went back through the last 12 years to look at Super Bowl winning quarterback salaries and what percentage of the salary cap their salaries represented. Based on name and reputation, the list is pretty distinguished. Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and Tom Brady each won twice, plus appearances from Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson and Nick Foles. Using the numbers at Over The Cap, the highest percentage paid to a Super Bowl winning quarterback was 12.2% to Peyton Manning in 2015 with the Broncos. Everyone else was paid under 12% of the salary cap. To further expand on those numbers, I looked at the quarterbacks in the conference championship games for those twelve years. Only 7 times (other than Peyton Manning in 2015) out of 48 did a team make it to the AFC or NFC championship game while paying more than 12% to the Quarterback. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/02/nfl-quarterback-salaries-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-free-agency I get it. The NFL is a quarterbacks league. You can’t win without a good one, and you can’t get a good one without paying A LOT of money for him. That’s why good-but-not-great quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford sign for record money and everybody celebrates the deal. That’s why the Redskins get ripped for refusing to give an above average quarterback the biggest contract in NFL history. Here’s the problem with that sentiment: There is no proof that paying for a quarterback leads to winning. In fact, there is basically no correlation between a quarterback’s compensation and how many games he wins. We did the math. For the following chart, we picked out every season since 2013 in which a quarterback started at least half of his team’s games. That gave us a sample of 158 individual seasons. We then plotted those seasons based on the quarterback’s winning percentage and cap hit percentage during that season. Here is the result. We get a correlation coefficient of .038. If you’ve forgotten everything you learned in that statistics course you took back in college, that’s statistically meaningless. For a point of comparison, there is a stronger correlation (three times stronger, actually) between a team’s preseason winning percentage and their regular season winning percentage. There’s is no correlation between a quarterback’s salary and how many games he wins, so whatever benefit a team gets from paying the quarterback premium is not showing up on the scoreboard. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/2/18164980/nfl-playoffs-quarterbacks-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes “Jay Cutler was the quintessential ‘fear of the unknown’ quarterback. I think as the cap continues to go up, the new Jay Cutlers of the world will benefit.” —Joel Corry, former agent “Ryan Tannehill is the perfect example of it. He was paid as a top quarterback only because he was a starter,” Fitzgerald said of that wave of extensions. “There was nothing in his body of work that showed he should be a $19 million quarterback. Those teams put themselves at a disadvantage and you won’t find too many of them in the playoffs.” Joe Flacco’s contract extension in 2013, which paid him $52 million in guarantees despite his mediocrity, didn’t help matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextyearfordaboyz Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 (edited) That’s an interesting interpretation of the data. I might argue that it’s evidence that paying your quarterback a big contract does *not* hurt you the way many in this thread claim it does. Edit: just to clarify my point, literally nobody thinks paying your QB more is a competitive advantage. They think having a better QB is a competitive advantage, but at some point, you have to pay that player or you have to find another one. Edited April 20, 2019 by Nextyearfordaboyz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBoys Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Nextyearfordaboyz said: That’s an interesting interpretation of the data. I might argue that it’s evidence that paying your quarterback a big contract does *not* hurt you the way many in this thread claim it does. Edit: just to clarify my point, literally nobody thinks paying your QB more is a competitive advantage. They think having a better QB is a competitive advantage, but at some point, you have to pay that player or you have to find another one. "Using the numbers at Over The Cap, the highest percentage paid to a Super Bowl winning quarterback was 12.2% to Peyton Manning in 2015 with the Broncos. Everyone else was paid under 12% of the salary cap. To further expand on those numbers, I looked at the quarterbacks in the conference championship games for those twelve years. Only 7 times (other than Peyton Manning in 2015) out of 48 did a team make it to the AFC or NFC championship game while paying more than 12% to the Quarterback." 12% seems to be the magic number Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 On 4/13/2019 at 4:52 PM, DaBoys said: This was a great game winning drive by Dak: https://youtu.be/JJ8b6G895v4 awesome game winning drive by zeke. starts about 2:50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 (edited) 27 minutes ago, DaBoys said: "Using the numbers at Over The Cap, the highest percentage paid to a Super Bowl winning quarterback was 12.2% to Peyton Manning in 2015 with the Broncos. Everyone else was paid under 12% of the salary cap. To further expand on those numbers, I looked at the quarterbacks in the conference championship games for those twelve years. Only 7 times (other than Peyton Manning in 2015) out of 48 did a team make it to the AFC or NFC championship game while paying more than 12% to the Quarterback." 12% seems to be the magic number so at $30m he will be at 12% in roughly 3-4 years, assuming he signs this year. or he can just buck the trend. Edited April 20, 2019 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 On 4/13/2019 at 4:54 PM, wwhickok said: That was a great run by Elliot against our pathetic defense. watch out agreeing with that one. he would rather see dak get murdered by a pack of wild boars than recognize how good dak has been for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: so at $30m he will be at 12% in roughly 3-4 years, assuming he signs this year. or he can just buck the trend. The other piece that is more difficult to compare, what other star players did those teams have to pay as well as their QB? Did Denver lose good talent because of Manning or were they able to pay Manning because their other star players were on rookie deals? I get it, it's not Daks fault we have other people to pay but still needs to be considered by the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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