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Which team is going to experience the biggest decline next year?


RaidersAreOne

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23 hours ago, El ramster said:

Again. That means good teams. Dallas could very well go 10-6 or 9-7 8-8 that isn't a huge regression. Dallas is who Dallas is. 

A over achieving well coached defense. With a 1990's offense. They'll win some games.. Heck weren't they 9-7 last year? Same team. They won't regress.

You read breh.

OP Listed the 9-6-1 Steelers.

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Bears and Saints are easy to pick to regress, although the Saints probably only by 2/3 games.

Houston and Dallas also seem likely.

Edit: So the Bears actually hit their Pythagorean win total (12 wins vs 11.6 expected) as did Houston (11 wins vs 10.3 expected), so I don't think either regress by more than a game or two.

The Rams are actually FAR more likely to decline (13 wins vs 11.2 expected).

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10 hours ago, ManningGM said:

I'd like to see your reasoning for the Colts as they just made it to the Divisional Round in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year and have 9 draft picks, $120mil in cap space to be utilized over the summer. 

They played a very easy schedule, esp the 2d half of the year, which IMO inflated their record, and they had a ton of cap space last year but did almost nothing with it, I see no reason to believe they will be much different this year. I'm not saying they will do a huge backslide but it would not surprise me.

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The Chiefs may actually be the top candidate. I think they were THE best team in the regular season. But they were dependent on Mahomes being historically great and that type of season hasn't repeated before. If Mahomes is merely normal great that'll be a ways down for the Chiefs.

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On 1/21/2019 at 1:12 PM, lancerman said:

Pats are actually  in a really good spot for the next few seasons. They have a lot of capital and draft picks. 

They have the QB for however long he goes (and he keeps saying he wants to play until 45)

They have a beast offensive line. 

They have the best running game they've had since the early 2000's. 

They have a great secondary with Gilmore locked down. 

They can get pressure upfront and have been doing it more consistently than ever. 

They really just need to get some more depth at LB (and to be honest a lot of guys have been stepping up there so the problem isn't as bad as it seemed early on) and another quality receiver (hi AB). Aside from that they are really looking to just fill for roster depth. 

This kind was supposed to be the down year before they reloaded. 

Good points but they will have to overhaul the OS of the ball  , IMO Gronk's  gone and Horgan and just maybe Julian Edelman. I can't see Peterson and Allen  back as well.

The other teams falling back IMO Houston and Pitt.

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9 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

The Chiefs may actually be the top candidate. I think they were THE best team in the regular season. But they were dependent on Mahomes being historically great and that type of season hasn't repeated before. If Mahomes is merely normal great that'll be a ways down for the Chiefs.

Chiefs will get worse on offense but I can see an improvement on defense. It could cancel each other out and they could still be a SB contender with that. If Chiefs draft DT, LB and DB I think there is a possibility for a top 15 defense. Coupled with a top 5 offense (even with decline they will have a great group) they should be very good. 

 

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Let's say a hypothetical.  Let's say the Patriots win the SB, Brady and Gronk decide to retire.   Patriots go 3-13 and never make it to the SB again for the next decade. (That's an extreme scenario)

 

Bears is the wrong answer imo.  They're a very good team. 

The top choices for me are Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston.

I know Cleveland improved, but it's cleveland.

As for Baltimore, they're not actually that good, neither is Lamar Jackson.

Houston...give it time, that team is destined to go 2-14.

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I understand why people pick the Bears, its a pick that makes sense, especially after Jax's regression from 2017 to 2018.  I think the Bears will see a slight regression on defense, but not a massive one.  Pagano is a very competent replacement to Fangio, and is similar schematically except a bit more aggressive.  I think the turnover numbers will likely decline a bit.  Offensively, I expect to see fairly major strides from Trubisky.  Just seeing the difference in his capability to make reads and go through his progressions from week 1 (where I was a major critic of his) to the playoffs is staggering.  He was much improved, and I can't wait to see what he and the rest of this offense can do with another year in the same system.  On offense, they could use a couple more pieces, particularly on the offensive line and possible another capable WR, but overall, things on offense look to be on the upswing.  Just a homer perspective.

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