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warfelg

Pre-Super Bowl Mock

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Some things to unpack there @Alex

2-4-5 and 4-2-5 not 'practically the same'. I've been a LB coach for 6 year now, just promoted to DC.  The front 7 assignments are wildly different in the two.

FA DE/Edge is going to cost you MUCH more than drafting one.  We're going to have about $30mil in cap room going into FA.  Take about $10mil of that off the top for depth signings.  So think of some of your top EDGE guys: Flowers, Clowney, Ford, Clark, Smith and Ansah.  Clowney and Ford are likely to be tagged.  Clark likely to resign.  That leaves Flowers, Smith, Ansah.  Smith plays the same side as TJ Watt and Washington has the money to 'one up' us.  Ansah is over 30 and declining as a player, but will get ~$12-15mil year one.  Flowers is your best option, but again you are overpaying for him as he would be a top option for a lot of teams in need of an edge player, so likely he makes $12-14mil year one.

Right away that free agent foray is a non-starter there at DE IMO.

 

But look at secondary.  First of CB and S is becoming a declining market.  At CB you got Jackson, Claiborne, Verrett, Callahan, Roby, Darby, Breeland.  Lets say you go with the 'short term' sure thing with Roby and/or Jackson, then build out depth on Verrett on a 2 year cheap deal.  Now you could get 2 corners for about a grand total of $10mil.

Now shift to safety, another need area.  Clinton-Dix, Collins, Mathieu, Joyner, Thomas, Vaccarro, Boston.  That's a deep FA class, where 1 or 2 of them are going to be had for a much lower price than many of ups expect.  Imagine getting Haha Clinton-Dix as a SS, Having Edmunds continue to develop at FS, and Davis now becomes more of a nickel backer.

 

So for the price of 1 pass rusher, we could possibly get 2 secondary players, meaning we go into the draft with pass rushers as the need.

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Jackson wouldn’t be terrible, and Verrett even tho he’s made of toothpicks and glue, would be a nice gamble.

At S, besides getting some depth to replace Burnett, I think they’ll stand pat.

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Anthony Barr is another option, and he could be potentially shifted inside as well.   Tomlin and Colbert like versatile players, but the cost will likely determine how likely that is.

There is alot of good depth to be had at OLB in free agency.   Wish they'd cut Bud Dupree's nearly worthless *** and get someone cheaper...even if its an aging vet like Derrick Morgan or Clay Matthews for a year.   Would be cheaper than paying Dupree much more than he is worth.   Only question is, is Dupree's money guaranteed?   Still not sure whats up with that.

Not a fan of most of the CB's in FA,   Verrett IMO is NOT worth the risk.   The best youre going to get is a decent CB youre going to have to overpay for.    

If a Brown trade is destined to happen, Id love to him traded for Patrick Peterson straight up (wont happen, but would be awesome),  cut Dupree (if contract isnt guaranteed), sign Anthony Barr, Shaquil Barrett or Preston Smith (depth or short term starter depending where Barr plays), and a safety to replace Burnett.....Tyrann Mathieu would be nice, but might be too much.  Also wouldnt mind bringing in Jordan Matthews to replace Brown on a one year prove it deal.

Then, draft a combo of pass rusher, WR, safety, CB and/or ILB in the first 3 rounds.   Maybe RB if the right player fell that could compliment Conner well.

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11 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Anthony Barr is another option, and he could be potentially shifted inside as well.   Tomlin and Colbert like versatile players, but the cost will likely determine how likely that is.

There is alot of good depth to be had at OLB in free agency.   Wish they'd cut Bud Dupree's nearly worthless *** and get someone cheaper...even if its an aging vet like Derrick Morgan or Clay Matthews for a year.   Would be cheaper than paying Dupree much more than he is worth.   Only question is, is Dupree's money guaranteed?   Still not sure whats up with that.

Yes it would be.  He would be in the same situation as Shazier was when the Steelers extended his fifth year option.  Once they do that, they have to pay that money.  If I recall, they also did this for Jarvis Jones and many of us were mad he wasn't simply cut. Conversely, it has been said that they will not do this for Artie.

Not a fan of most of the CB's in FA,   Verrett IMO is NOT worth the risk.   The best you're going to get is a decent CB you're going to have to overpay for.    

I have always liked Jason Verrett, but he has never been able to stay healthy.  If they could get him for a decent price, I would take a flier on him. He can cover and is a tough guy in run support and tackling. Although that is his problem as he does not have the frame of a big hitting CB. 

If a Brown trade is destined to happen, Id love to him traded for Patrick Peterson straight up (wont happen, but would be awesome),  cut Dupree (if contract isn't guaranteed), sign Anthony Barr, Shaquil Barrett or Preston Smith (depth or short term starter depending where Barr plays), and a safety to replace Burnett.....Tyrann Mathieu would be nice, but might be too much.  Also wouldn't mind bringing in Jordan Matthews to replace Brown on a one year prove it deal.

Then, draft a combo of pass rusher, WR, safety, CB and/or ILB in the first 3 rounds.   Maybe RB if the right player fell that could compliment Conner well.

I would like to see the Steelers bring in Tre Boston at safety.  He fits their game better, can cover or play center-field.  With the Steelers employing so many three man safety sets, why not add another good safety and allow Davis or Edmonds to play in the box where they can better handle the run and underneath stuff than deep. As far as AB, I think he probably needs to move on, but it seems he will be that fine-azz, but dysfunctional trophy wife that no one wants to get rid of, but knows she is ultimately no good for your well being.  You keep saying she gets on my nerves, spends too much money, runs her mouth too much, is selfish, obnoxious, immature, I don't even love her anymore, but dang she is fine.

Will the Steelers see more value AB's great individual work ethic, desire to be the best WR and his on-field production more-so than the locker room and social media drama, diva-ish behavior, hissy fits, off field incidents, the self-centered perception that it is AB before team and the actions that HE did and owns towards the organization, owner, coach and his brothers in the locker room the last game? True love covers a multitude of sins and the Steelers must decide if 100 + receptions, 10+ TD,s and over 1000 yards receiving every year does as well.

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1 hour ago, Steeler Hitman said:

Yes it would be.  He would be in the same situation as Shazier was when the Steelers extended his fifth year option.  Once they do that, they have to pay that money.  If I recall, they also did this for Jarvis Jones and many of us were mad he wasn't simply cut. Conversely, it has been said that they will not do this for Artie.

This is actually incorrect.  Dupree wasn't injured so his money isn't guaranteed.  Jarvis got injured which is why his was.

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Dupree’s contract is NOT guaranteed...my guess is they try to sign a longer term deal to lower his cap hit for this year.

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16 hours ago, warfelg said:

Some things to unpack there @Alex

2-4-5 and 4-2-5 not 'practically the same'. I've been a LB coach for 6 year now, just promoted to DC.  The front 7 assignments are wildly different in the two.

FA DE/Edge is going to cost you MUCH more than drafting one.  We're going to have about $30mil in cap room going into FA.  Take about $10mil of that off the top for depth signings.  So think of some of your top EDGE guys: Flowers, Clowney, Ford, Clark, Smith and Ansah.  Clowney and Ford are likely to be tagged.  Clark likely to resign.  That leaves Flowers, Smith, Ansah.  Smith plays the same side as TJ Watt and Washington has the money to 'one up' us.  Ansah is over 30 and declining as a player, but will get ~$12-15mil year one.  Flowers is your best option, but again you are overpaying for him as he would be a top option for a lot of teams in need of an edge player, so likely he makes $12-14mil year one.

Right away that free agent foray is a non-starter there at DE IMO.

 

But look at secondary.  First of CB and S is becoming a declining market.  At CB you got Jackson, Claiborne, Verrett, Callahan, Roby, Darby, Breeland.  Lets say you go with the 'short term' sure thing with Roby and/or Jackson, then build out depth on Verrett on a 2 year cheap deal.  Now you could get 2 corners for about a grand total of $10mil.

Now shift to safety, another need area.  Clinton-Dix, Collins, Mathieu, Joyner, Thomas, Vaccarro, Boston.  That's a deep FA class, where 1 or 2 of them are going to be had for a much lower price than many of ups expect.  Imagine getting Haha Clinton-Dix as a SS, Having Edmunds continue to develop at FS, and Davis now becomes more of a nickel backer.

 

So for the price of 1 pass rusher, we could possibly get 2 secondary players, meaning we go into the draft with pass rushers as the need.

You aren't wrong on the 2-4-5/4-2-5 part, but in NFL you have to mask your defense, that's Tomlin (or Butler) thing. You could see a 2-4-5, but the assignments are like a 4-2-5 or vice versa. My argument for this is we have been playing a 4-2-5 with the personnel of 2-4-5, I do think we are restricted to closing the edge and 2 minutes drill pass-rushing because of this. I'm just saying who I feel and what role I think would benefit the Steelers greatly, of course, that's much different from what they will do, or your preference. 

For example, your mock draft and listed free agents consist of 3-4 pass rushers. True, it's a shallow class, but the 4-3 defensive ends aren't. There are some good FAs we can get for dirt cheap. What the Steelers will want is a pass rusher who dropbacks (ugh) because our inside linebackers couldn't. 

What I want for us to force ourselves get a true Cover LB, albeit Mack Wilson via the draft. This means getting a pass rusher who is good against the run, not necessarily to drop in the coverage. Here's why I think it works; with our multiple packages, the 4-3 pass rusher type would play as much as Hargrave (43%) so I'm expecting the player (x) to play at least 40% of the snaps. That's not full-time playing time. This is, of course, FACTORING in Dupree being back (he will be) with his snap count % should be much lower (played at 83%). Having a player who can compliment Dupree just makes more sense to me, at least I think. 

Thoughts?

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1 hour ago, warfelg said:

This is actually incorrect.  Dupree wasn't injured so his money isn't guaranteed.  Jarvis got injured which is why his was.

Thanks for the clarification Warfelg.  I thought it was the Steelers option whether they offered the fifth year option. I know they honored the fifth year options on some contracts in the past. I thought they honored Shazier's as a classy business move for his commitment to the team and the team's toward him. However, they chose to hold onto Jarvis. I guess I am confused, but I accept what you are saying. Question: So as long as Burns is not injured they don't have to honor the fifth year? If they don't does he become a RFA or UFA?

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On 1/25/2019 at 9:23 AM, warfelg said:

TRADES:

~ Antonio Brown and 3rd to Oakland Raiders for 1-24, 3-66, 2020 2nd (Bears Pick)

I don't think Oakland is interested in high-priced players at the present time. I would not be surprised if they unloaded Carr this offseason. 

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On 1/29/2019 at 1:47 PM, cjfollett said:

I don't think Oakland is interested in high-priced players at the present time. I would not be surprised if they unloaded Carr this offseason. 

Interesting. Unless someone gave the Raiders a deal that they couldn't refuse (another #1), I would try to hold onto Carr until next season. If he has a decent year in 2019, the Raiders should be able to get a #1 for him. I am not so sure that some team would offer  #1 for him this year.

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On 1/29/2019 at 10:47 AM, cjfollett said:

I don't think Oakland is interested in high-priced players at the present time. I would not be surprised if they unloaded Carr this offseason. 

CARR is BYE-BYE

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Other than Carr, do the Raiders have any other high priced talent?  Not really.  Most of the money is the the Oline.  They will not sign Cook ( or i would be very surprised if they did.

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On 2/1/2019 at 12:11 PM, Steeler Hitman said:

Interesting. Unless someone gave the Raiders a deal that they couldn't refuse (another #1), I would try to hold onto Carr until next season. If he has a decent year in 2019, the Raiders should be able to get a #1 for him. I am not so sure that some team would offer  #1 for him this year.

It just seems like a fire sale going on there. They got rid of Mack and Cooper. They brought in Mayock as GM. They have a lot of picks, so I think they might be looking to unload Carr. You're probably right about one more year. I just don't think Gruden believes Carr is his guy. Or maybe they are on the multi-year Suck for Luck campaign (except when the Steelers come to town).

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Here is a for real question why was Tre Boston free agent the entire season?

And oh by the way before someone like muncher times in and says because no one find him yeah that's pretty obvious but is there something that I'm missing because he seemed like a talented safety

Edited by wwhickok

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