Free Agent Rumors

[soulman]

7 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Really?

I can tell a different story with stats between Long and Witzmann.

Let me start by saying Witzmann is not better than Long.  Long is a first round pick and multi-pro bowl player.  Witzmann is a journeyman who was on street when Bears called. 

Howard Regular Season with Long starting with 2nd game so we can compare 6 consecutive starts for Long to and 6 consecutive starts for Witzmann.

Howard with Long starting:

Seattle 14 for 35

Arizona 24 for 61

TB 11 for 25

Mia 14 for 69

Pats 12 for 39

Jets 22 for 81

So for a 6 game stretch against 4 of worst teams in league in 2018 and an injury riddled Seattle team Howard with Long rushed for 310 yards, an average of 51.6 yards a game and an average of  3.1 yards a carry.

Howard with Witzmann starting:

NOTE: Witzmann joined team for Buf game and played 45% of snaps so I didn't count it.

Detroit 11 for 21 

Min      18 for 63

Det.   7 for 13 (no QB)

NY.   16 for 76 (no QB)

Rams 19 for 101 (QB back)

GB.      19 for 60

So with Witzmann starting for 6 game stretch, two of which the starting QB was out of the game,  Howard rushed for 334 yards, 55.6 yards a game for 3.7 yards a carry.

Side by side regular season 6 consecutive game stretch:

Long    Witzmann

310      334

51.6.     55.6

3.1        3.7

Note in playoffs with Long playing every snap Howard rushed for 35 yards on 10 carries.  Gabriel added 20, 21on 1 carry and -1 on another.  Cohen zero.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It analyzed each combo; Long/Kush, Long/Daniels, Kush/Daniels, and Witzmann/Daniels.

If I can locate it later tonight I'll re-post it.  IIRC it's done differently that you did it but the difference was significant.  Witzmann's pass blocking was fair but not his run blocking.

I didn't do the analysis myself so don't shoot the messenger but rather ask yourself a question.

We didn't re-sign Witzmann did we and if he was all that solid for KC why was he a street FA when we signed him?

[dll2000]

28 minutes ago, soulman said:

It analyzed each combo; Long/Kush, Long/Daniels, Kush/Daniels, and Witzmann/Daniels.

If I can locate it later tonight I'll re-post it.  IIRC it's done differently that you did it but the difference was significant.  Witzmann's pass blocking was fair but not his run blocking.

I didn't do the analysis myself so don't shoot the messenger but rather ask yourself a question.

We didn't re-sign Witzmann did we and if he was all that solid for KC why was he a street FA when we signed him?

I saw it.  It used stats and stats never tell a whole story.  I just pointed out I could tell a different story with stats using same players.  

You have to watch them play and focus just on them for several games.  

That takes forever when talking about O linemen.  A lot of times it is easy, but some plays are hard.  Because you don't know what line call was made, who made it and who may or may not have screwed it up.  You can figure it out if you deconstruct the play and see what defense did and what offense was trying to do.  

A lot easier when you know the play and the line call for each play when reviewing like the team coaches do.

 

 

 

 

[soulman]

47 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

I saw it.  It used stats and stats never tell a whole story.  I just pointed out I could tell a different story with stats using same players.  

You have to watch them play and focus just on them for several games.  

That takes forever when talking about O linemen.  A lot of times it is easy, but some plays are hard.  Because you don't know what line call was made, who made it and who may or may not have screwed it up.  You can figure it out if you deconstruct the play and see what defense did and what offense was trying to do.  

A lot easier when you know the play and the line call for each play when reviewing like the team coaches do.

 

 

 

 

If I can find it I'll post it again because I'm curious now.  Stats may not tell an entire story but they do tell A story and serve as indicators or we would ignore them completely.  You're background allows you to make judgements I cannot do as well but I'm not totally stats driven either. I watch games.

Unarguably Long is better than Witzmann.  Witzmann wasn't retained, Long was even at greater cost.  My point was Witzmann was our worst run blocking OG but overall slightly better than Kush at RG or we can assume Kush would have started over him.

Judging Long last season is tough. 1) he was coming off an entire season of rehab, and 2) Nagy didn't begin to use more zone blocking 'til after Long went down.  In both cases Howard ran more effectively behind a zone scheme and always has.

So stats aside even subjectively Pace and Nagy preferred Long over Witzmann and felt he didn't perform well enough to re-sign.

[soulman]

Ah hell, I don't know why I'm even debating this.  Witzmann's gone.  I'd rather talk about whose here.

[soulman]

Still no OLB/Edge......curious and curiouser.

[WindyCity]

4 hours ago, soulman said:

Still no OLB/Edge......curious and curiouser.

I think at this point they are just waiting out Lynch and his little tour. 

He clearly is not getting his number and now the Bears can pay him their number.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think at this point they are just waiting out Lynch and his little tour. 

He clearly is not getting his number and now the Bears can pay him their number.

Looks more and more like it to me as well.

Based on 2018 Pace had good reason to bring him back but agreed to let the market set his value.

The question is will it be another 1 year deal or at his age would it be wise to offer something longer?

[WindyCity]

7 minutes ago, soulman said:

Looks more and more like it to me as well.

Based on 2018 Pace had good reason to bring him back but agreed to let the market set his value.

The question is will it be another 1 year deal or at his age would it be wise to offer something longer?

Depends on the cost. At 3/season I would love to lock him in for 3 years and get some cost certainty at that spot. We have huge money invested in Floyd and Mack in 2020 and need some cost certainty at the #3 spot.

[soulman]

9 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Depends on the cost. At 3/season I would love to lock him in for 3 years and get some cost certainty at that spot. We have huge money invested in Floyd and Mack in 2020 and need some cost certainty at the #3 spot.

Kinda what I was thinking although I don't know if we could get him for that little.

I was thinking more in the range of 3/$12 mil but with a very small 2019 cap hit.

Give him a $3 mil SB and a $1 mil salary in 2019.  He makes the same $4 mil he did last year but our cap hit is half that.

Then maybe jump him to a $3 mil Salary/$500k RB in 2020 with the RB gtd and $4 salary/$500k RB in 2021.

It's basically a 1 year deal with 2 annual options.

[AZBearsFan]

5 hours ago, soulman said:

Kinda what I was thinking although I don't know if we could get him for that little.

I was thinking more in the range of 3/$12 mil but with a very small 2019 cap hit.

Give him a $3 mil SB and a $1 mil salary in 2019.  He makes the same $4 mil he did last year but our cap hit is half that.

Then maybe jump him to a $3 mil Salary/$500k RB in 2020 with the RB gtd and $4 salary/$500k RB in 2021.

It's basically a 1 year deal with 2 annual options.

I’d still be surprised to see Lynch get that kind of coin. The market for his level of edge rusher has only reinforced that to me. 

[soulman]

37 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’d still be surprised to see Lynch get that kind of coin. The market for his level of edge rusher has only reinforced that to me. 

I'm basing it a bit on recent deals and in this case a multiple year deal as opposed to one year like Curry and Irvin got for 2019

Vinny Curry got $2.25 mil but with a reported $1.25 mil in incentives so his upside is $3.5 mil.  He's 30/7 yr vet

Bruce Irvin got $4 mil straight.  He's 32/7 yr vet.

 

In 2018 Lynch actually signed for $3.5 mil ($2.25 mil salary/$1.25 mil SB) with another $500k in per game bonuses of which he earned $400k and change so he got $3.9 mil plus.

If we were gonna offer him a 1 year deal again it might be somewhere in that range.  Arguably he earned his 2018 deal and got most of his per game $$$.

Lynch is only 26 so offering him something more than 1 year isn't a major risk provided we can step away after a year and that's all I did but made it even more cap friendly than his 2018 deal.  Maybe more $$$ is put into incentives and less in salary or his SB but I didn't want to clutter it up too much.

IMHO I think we're gonna be in a $3 mil - $4 mil range for any vet OLB/Edge we sign whether it's Lynch or another and for us Lynch is more of a known quantity.  JMHO

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

In 2018 Lynch actually signed for $3.5 mil ($2.25 mil salary/$1.25 mil SB) with another $500k in per game bonuses of which he earned $400k and change so he got $3.9 mil plus.

If we were gonna offer him a 1 year deal again it might be somewhere in that range.  Arguably he earned his 2018 deal and got most of his per game $$$.

Lynch is only 26 so offering him something more than 1 year isn't a major risk provided we can step away after a year and that's all I did but made it even more cap friendly than his 2018 deal.  Maybe more $$$ is put into incentives and less in salary or his SB but I didn't want to clutter it up too much.

IMHO I think we're gonna be in a $3 mil - $4 mil range for any vet OLB/Edge we sign whether it's Lynch or another and for us Lynch is more of a known quantity.  JMHO

His last year deal was on potential along with being reunited with Fangio though with whom he had his only NFL success as a pass rusher. He didn’t have that last year though and now Fangio is gone. He’s 3 years removed now from having more than 3 sacks in any single season season and has only played 27 of 49 games in that stretch. I just don’t see enough to justify an upside type contract there at this point. He’s basically a bigger Sam Acho on defense with no ST value. 

[WindyCity]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

His last year deal was on potential along with being reunited with Fangio though with whom he had his only NFL success as a pass rusher. He didn’t have that last year though and now Fangio is gone. He’s 3 years removed now from having more than 3 sacks in any single season season and has only played 27 of 49 games in that stretch. I just don’t see enough to justify an upside type contract there at this point. He’s basically a bigger Sam Acho on defense with no ST value. 

Sam Acho made 2.5 million. He will get more than that as he is better on defense.

3 + incentives to get to 4 or 4.5 makes sense.

He has a good year last year. He was good against the run, chipped in 3-4 sacks, had a really nice interception. That production alone gets him over 2 million more than likely.

[soulman]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

His last year deal was on potential along with being reunited with Fangio though with whom he had his only NFL success as a pass rusher. He didn’t have that last year though and now Fangio is gone. He’s 3 years removed now from having more than 3 sacks in any single season season and has only played 27 of 49 games in that stretch. I just don’t see enough to justify an upside type contract there at this point. He’s basically a bigger Sam Acho on defense with no ST value. 

I guess what I'm thinking is he's not signed.  Not by us or anyone else.  That tells me he hasn't gotten an offer yet OR he hasn't gotten one he's willing to accept.  I just came up with a cap friendly one with no more cash year one than last season and one we can leave after year one if It's wise to do so.

He had 3 sacks and 8 hits last season, created decent pressure on most passing downs, and played the run well.  Defensively he played a cut above Acho and got paid a little more and Acho also missed 12 games in 2018.  Seriously, I believe Lynch paid for himself in 2018 and I'd bring him back if possible.

And what upside?  The deal I suggested averages what he got in 2018, not more.  With cap increases if anything it's a lesser deal with just $4 mil-$4.5 mil gtd.

If we can sign him for less for one year that's OK too but somewhere along the line we need to get a deal done with Lynch or someone else.

[soulman]

FWIW this is how Brad Biggs answered a question about Lynch returning.....

No interest in bringing Aaron Lynch back? Or too expensive? — @jasonloetterle

I believe the Bears would like to re-sign the outside linebacker. I would not be surprised if the Broncos and coach Vic Fangio have interest in him as well. One source suggested Lynch was seeking $5 million per season before the start of free agency. He might not get that. We’ll have to see where the market goes for him, but he’s definitely got interest. NFL Media reported he’s visiting the Colts and has already visited the Raiders and Seahawks. There still are some experienced players on the street who can fill the role. I imagine the Bears have a number in mind for what they want to pay a third outside linebacker.

If that's accurate he's seeking a multi-year deal that's 25% greater in AAV than I suggested and apparently not getting offers in that range from us or anyone else so far.  I also believe this is a case where his value won't rise much if at all based on deal Curry and Irvin just got.  IMHO at $5 mil he's over pricing himself as a rotation piece and I don't see him as having to goods to be a full time starter for anyone including Denver.