malagabears Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 2 hours ago, soulman said: FWIW this is how Brad Biggs answered a question about Lynch returning..... No interest in bringing Aaron Lynch back? Or too expensive? — @jasonloetterle I believe the Bears would like to re-sign the outside linebacker. I would not be surprised if the Broncos and coach Vic Fangio have interest in him as well. One source suggested Lynch was seeking $5 million per season before the start of free agency. He might not get that. We’ll have to see where the market goes for him, but he’s definitely got interest. NFL Media reported he’s visiting the Colts and has already visited the Raiders and Seahawks. There still are some experienced players on the street who can fill the role. I imagine the Bears have a number in mind for what they want to pay a third outside linebacker. If that's accurate he's seeking a multi-year deal that's 25% greater in AAV than I suggested and apparently not getting offers in that range from us or anyone else so far. I also believe this is a case where his value won't rise much if at all based on deal Curry and Irvin just got. IMHO at $5 mil he's over pricing himself as a rotation piece and I don't see him as having to goods to be a full time starter for anyone including Denver. I would try a 3/12M with 8M guaranteed. Give a 6M signing bonus and spread that out over the 3 years. 2M salary and a 2M signing bonus CAP hit = 4M this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 54 minutes ago, malagabears said: I would try a 3/12M with 8M guaranteed. Give a 6M signing bonus and spread that out over the 3 years. 2M salary and a 2M signing bonus CAP hit = 4M this year. That guarantee would be bananas. Lynch may end up with a multi-year deal as you’re projecting even if I see it as entirely unjustified but I’d be beyond floored if it came with a 67% multi-year guarantee. That’s the stuff of elite players or aging former elite players where a team is trying to squeeze one more good year out of him. Lynch is obviously neither of those. If Lynch’s ability or potential justified a multi-year guarantee even at a reasonably low AAV then he would have been off the market long ago IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said: That guarantee would be bananas. Lynch may end up with a multi-year deal as you’re projecting even if I see it as entirely unjustified but I’d be beyond floored if it came with a 67% multi-year guarantee. That’s the stuff of elite players or aging former elite players where a team is trying to squeeze one more good year out of him. Lynch is obviously neither of those. If Lynch’s ability or potential justified a multi-year guarantee even at a reasonably low AAV then he would have been off the market long ago IMO. Pro and con to this eventhough you would be justified in arguing the pro is not worth the risk. Pro: You get an experienced OLB going into his prime. Lynch knows most of the D playbook although it will change somewhat with Pagano. The yearly CAP hit isn't all that much considering OLB is one of the top paid position in football. Con: Any guarantee over 50% is not normally handed out to depth players. In this I case I suppose you could chop that down to 3/12M with 6M guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, malagabears said: Pro and con to this eventhough you would be justified in arguing the pro is not worth the risk. Pro: You get an experienced OLB going into his prime. Lynch knows most of the D playbook although it will change somewhat with Pagano. The yearly CAP hit isn't all that much considering OLB is one of the top paid position in football. Con: Any guarantee over 50% is not normally handed out to depth players. In this I case I suppose you could chop that down to 3/12M with 6M guaranteed. “Going into his prime” is based on age only though. His best seasons were 4 and 5 years ago, respectfully, and even those were just solid. If he nets a multi-year deal I think one like Acho’s is about what I’d expect (2/5.5 with 2.95M guaranteed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: “Going into his prime” is based on age only though. His best seasons were 4 and 5 years ago, respectfully, and even those were just solid. If he nets a multi-year deal I think one like Acho’s is about what I’d expect (2/5.5 with 2.95M guaranteed). After getting only 1.25M guaranteed last on a 4M contract I guess I overstated his value. He did have a decent season though. 3 sacks, 16 tackles with 4 TFL, & 8 QB hits (not sure how many pressures). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 3 hours ago, malagabears said: After getting only 1.25M guaranteed last on a 4M contract I guess I overstated his value. He did have a decent season though. 3 sacks, 16 tackles with 4 TFL, & 8 QB hits (not sure how many pressures). Decent I think is a fair assessment. 3 sacks had him tied for 132nd in the NFL. 8 QB hits tied for 111th. I’d say that probably puts him as about a mid-grade #3 OLB. $4M AAV would put him about 45th or so amongst edge rushers (per OTC). Some good ones are below that for sure on rookie deals, but for what he’s putting on the field I think $4M a bit high, especially if he doesn’t have any good offers elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 9 hours ago, malagabears said: I would try a 3/12M with 8M guaranteed. Give a 6M signing bonus and spread that out over the 3 years. 2M salary and a 2M signing bonus CAP hit = 4M this year. Teams typically don't guarantee more than 40%-50% of a multi-year deal unless it's a QB or other high profile player and with Lynch injury history I'd say it would be more in the 40% range tops so more like $4.5-$5 mil. I used $4.5 for my projection. It shouldn't require more than a modest signing bonus and 1st year salary at most for guys like Lynch. In fact with his injury history I would minimize his salary and fill in with per game bonuses like last year when he earned 13 of them, $400k and change. What Lynch would like to get is immaterial. Pace has show with each of our FAs that he has an amount he'll pay and no more. If he was gonna stretch for anyone it might have been Callahan because we were close to what Denver offered anyway but he didn't. At best Lynch was only assured of $3.5 mil last year provided he made the 53 man roster and I don't think Pace will go much beyond that even on a multi-year deal which he may not be willing to offer either. OLB/Edge guys are finding it's a buyers market now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 57 minutes ago, soulman said: Teams typically don't guarantee more than 40%-50% of a multi-year deal unless it's a QB or other high profile player and with Lynch injury history I'd say it would be more in the 40% range tops so more like $4.5-$5 mil. I used $4.5 for my projection. It shouldn't require more than a modest signing bonus and 1st year salary at most for guys like Lynch. In fact with his injury history I would minimize his salary and fill in with per game bonuses like last year when he earned 13 of them, $400k and change. What Lynch would like to get is immaterial. Pace has show with each of our FAs that he has an amount he'll pay and no more. If he was gonna stretch for anyone it might have been Callahan because we were close to what Denver offered anyway but he didn't. At best Lynch was only assured of $3.5 mil last year provided he made the 53 man roster and I don't think Pace will go much beyond that even on a multi-year deal which he may not be willing to offer either. OLB/Edge guys are finding it's a buyers market now. There are also several players on the market that are better players than Lynch all of whom were released and likewise won’t impact anyone’s comp pick situation. It wouldn’t shock me to see Lynch not sign anywhere until after the draft, and really, because of the availability of several options at that position on the market right now we may not be in a situation where we HAVE to add a guy before the draft and that could be advantageous because other capable options may be released as well after teams draft their expected replacements. The top of this draft is flush with top edge prospects. Those guys are going to cause some viable options to be released and available to us. A buyer market indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Could well be it works out just that way for those who are still unsigned. Pace doesn't appear pressured at all by it. IMHO it's expecting a lot for a rookie mid round pick to come in and take on a spot as a 3rd OLB but it's possible Pace and Pagano feel Irving has gained enough knowledge and feel for it that he could take over that spot with Fitts and a rookie vying for the #4 spot. Hard to tell just yet but you'd be paying 3 guys less than what a vet like Lynch alone is asking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Irving sux Pace will sign a vet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 He may wait until TC ends .. to see what a draft pick looks like, but Irving and Fitts are not the answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 2 hours ago, SLCbear said: He may wait until TC ends .. to see what a draft pick looks like, but Irving and Fitts are not the answer Why would Pace wait 'til August to sign a vet OLB unless he thought that Irving or Fitts might be ready for a role in the rotation as 3rd OLB? Releasing Acho and not re-signing Lynch before FA would tend to indicate he thinks more of them than you might. We don't really know that yet. If Pace thinks Irving and Fitts aren't the answer that would tend to push him toward signing a vet OLB long before camp as opposed to hoping someone better may come along later. Remember teams no longer cut down to their 53 man rosters 'til after preseason has wrapped up so the pickins' for quality edge rushers will be pretty slim and we're near the bottom as far a waiver claims go. If we do find someone better we cut someone else. Why would a mid or late round draft pick be any better than Irving or Fitts and will Pace even spend a mid round pick on an OLB/Edge? Irving has 20 games of NFL regular season experience under his belt and has led the team in sacks and pressures in the previous two preseasons. He's an RFA in 2020 so 2019 is kind of a make or break year for him as far as picking up a tender and sticking around. He may get his shot at it. Fitts is probably still a year away and needs more development but his size and basic skill set are what teams look for in an edge rusher. His issue and why he dropped as far as he did in the draft is he couldn't stay healthy in college or he could have been a day 2 pick. Too soon to say on him. I'll just say I expect him to sign a vet at his price because it makes sense to have an experienced #3 OLB to rotate with Floyd and Mack for now. Who he signs and when he signs him is what we're all looking at but eventually we'll want that spot filled by a player we've drafted or signed as a UDFA because it's far less expensive than continuing to sign vets when we have to pay both Mack AND Floyd big money and that's coming up in 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Completely off topic but has any QB ever made more money for doing less in his career than Mike Glennon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 48 minutes ago, soulman said: Completely off topic but has any QB ever made more money for doing less in his career than Mike Glennon? Wow, just WOW!! He made 23.5M over 2 years for 6 games played and 4 starts. What a terrible signing that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Back to OLB, I personally would like either Lynch or a 2nd tier OLB like Clay/Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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