nlesthought Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 If Wiz, Brooks or Kelce said to someone within the org they are considering retirement after this year sure grab an OG...Seumalo is more C/blocking TE than OG. Darrell Greene has been on the roster for a couple years now. Chance is only 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianlewis16 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 12 hours ago, Jeezla said: Wish he was 2-3 years younger, but I do like Hurst. Not as much as Goedert though. Are teams even allowed to have 2 gingers on the field at the same time? Damn he gon be 25 when the season starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 31 minutes ago, ianlewis16 said: Damn he gon be 25 when the season starts. It really doesn't bother me. We're lucky to get one good snap out of most of our draft picks every year. If the primary concern is that a 25-year old dude wouldn't give us a full decade+ of success, then so what? That already means the guy's a contributor and more successful/productive than the overwhelming majority of draft picks every year. It's not like we're never gonna get other players. If he gives us only 5 years of solid play, why is that a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 People idealize the "20 years of amazing play with the same organization" too much. This happens with draft picks, trades, free agency, whatever. Football is a short-term game. Rosters turn over like mad every season. Every year's team is substantially different. So if you draft a 25-year old dude and he contributes for only 4 years (exaggerating for example) then what's the big deal? If you have the chance to trade for "Bad Knees" Jay Ajayi as a stopgap for 1-2 years, then what's the big deal if he's not here for 10+ years with healthy knees? It's good to look long-term but this is a short-term game and we all should have learned that lesson from Howie last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Phire said: It really doesn't bother me. We're lucky to get one good snap out of most of our draft picks every year. If the primary concern is that a 25-year old dude wouldn't give us a full decade+ of success, then so what? That already means the guy's a contributor and more successful/productive than the overwhelming majority of draft picks every year. It's not like we're never gonna get other players. If he gives us only 5 years of solid play, why is that a bad thing? Has there even been someone who has had success being drafted at 25 or older? Obviously Watkins and Weeden come to mind first but not sure if there's anyone who has had actual success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, Remixxxxxxx said: Has there even been someone who has had success being drafted at 25 or older? Obviously Watkins and Weeden come to mind first but not sure if there's anyone who has had actual success. Not that this is a glowing thing, but I think James Casey was 25 because he played baseball like Hurst. I think Hurst is head and shoulders above the prospect that Casey was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jroc04 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 It's def a matter of risk and reward. The reward of drafting a guy that can play at a high level for 8+ years is better than that of a 5+ guy, obviously. Your risk in the NFL is usually money or draft slot. So, would you risk your 1st on him? 2nd? I'd prefer not to. The draft is a crapshoot. We all talked ourselves into the fireman because he "was ready to step in day 1" and "could compete at a pro bowl level his first year". Just because the guy is older doesn't mean he's ready to see NFL action. He could take a couple years to develop into possibly a good player and by then he's 28? If it's all the same risk, because no one knows if any player will pan out, then the younger guy clearly is the better option. Theres too much risk to spend a high draft pick on an older guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, Jlash said: Not that this is a glowing thing, but I think James Casey was 25 because he played baseball like Hurst. I think Hurst is head and shoulders above the prospect that Casey was. yeah a career of 72 rec, 800 + yards and 6 TDs (over the course of 7 seasons) is not what I'd consider successful - i'd also consider Hurst well above Casey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, Remixxxxxxx said: Has there even been someone who has had success being drafted at 25 or older? Obviously Watkins and Weeden come to mind first but not sure if there's anyone who has had actual success. I think the problem with that is the sample size is almost impossibly small. Almost nobody is getting drafted at 25 or older. But I don't see why that has anything to do with it. Some of the best players in the league are in their 30s. A guy isn't going to be bad just because he's 25 when drafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 23 minutes ago, Jroc04 said: It's def a matter of risk and reward. The reward of drafting a guy that can play at a high level for 8+ years is better than that of a 5+ guy, obviously. Your risk in the NFL is usually money or draft slot. So, would you risk your 1st on him? 2nd? I'd prefer not to. The draft is a crapshoot. We all talked ourselves into the fireman because he "was ready to step in day 1" and "could compete at a pro bowl level his first year". Just because the guy is older doesn't mean he's ready to see NFL action. He could take a couple years to develop into possibly a good player and by then he's 28? If it's all the same risk, because no one knows if any player will pan out, then the younger guy clearly is the better option. Theres too much risk to spend a high draft pick on an older guy. Would you take Marcus Smith over a 25 year old that only gives you 3 years of solid play? Of course not. To me it has less to do with risk and reward fantasies and more to do with getting guys who will make your roster stronger. The reality is that most draft picks will fail to give you a single meaningful snap. What I'm saying is if a successful draft pick gives us only a few years of solid play due to age at the time of draft that's a rich man's problem, a good problem to have. It's a hell of a lot better than the Marcus Smith types that often get drafted. I'm not saying it's not ideal to draft a 25 year old, I just think the age thing is a bit overblown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Phire said: I think the problem with that is the sample size is almost impossibly small. Almost nobody is getting drafted at 25 or older. But I don't see why that has anything to do with it. Some of the best players in the league are in their 30s. A guy isn't going to be bad just because he's 25 when drafted. Nobody is getting drafted at 25 or older because the success rate is damn near close to 0%. There's a reason teams stay away from those guys and why it's one of the biggest concerns when it comes to Hurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Remixxxxxxx said: Nobody is getting drafted at 25 or older because the success rate is damn near close to 0%. There's a reason teams stay away from those guys and why it's one of the biggest concerns when it comes to Hurst. You got any evidence of this? What makes 999% more sense is that kids aren't 25+ when they leave college. I don't think this is even debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scalamania Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Phire said: You got any evidence of this? What makes 999% more sense is that kids aren't 25+ when they leave college. I don't think this is even debatable. James Casey, Brandon Weeden, Danny Watkins, Garret Bolles (jury is still out but he wasn't very food last year), Robert Gill, Chris Weinke are a few that come to mind without any research. Do you have any evidence of players drafted at 25 years or older having success? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jroc04 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Phire said: Would you take Marcus Smith over a 25 year old that only gives you 3 years of solid play? Of course not. To me it has less to do with risk and reward fantasies and more to do with getting guys who will make your roster stronger. The reality is that most draft picks will fail to give you a single meaningful snap. What I'm saying is if a successful draft pick gives us only a few years of solid play due to age at the time of draft that's a rich man's problem, a good problem to have. It's a hell of a lot better than the Marcus Smith types that often get drafted. I'm not saying it's not ideal to draft a 25 year old, I just think the age thing is a bit overblown. You're using determined hypothteicals to make your point. I'd take a good kicker first round instead of Smith if I knew what Marcus Smith was. But that means I would have the luxury of knowing the future. Point is, the guy could be the next Gronk. Or he could be an absolute bust. You dont know, I don't know, NFL execs don't know.... So what do they do? They provide risk/reward scenarios to select the most appropriate players. If two players with the same projected success in the league come out, the older one is going to fall simply because he doesn't have a professional window as long as the younger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phire Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Remixxxxxxx said: James Casey, Brandon Weeden, Danny Watkins, Garret Bolles (jury is still out but he wasn't very food last year), Robert Gill, Chris Weinke are a few that come to mind without any research. Do you have any evidence of players drafted at 25 years or older having success? That's not even what I'm talking about. First of all the examples you gave are directly contrary to your claim that teams purposefully stay away from these guys. My point is that very few people enter the NFL Draft at age 25 or older because 25 year olds aren't sitting around in college. That's just a fact. The sample size it too small to even be having this conversation. The success rate of kids that are 20, 21, 22, 23, and 24 are still absurdly low because of the high bust rate across drafts. The overwhelming vast majority of drafted players, at any age, are going to be busts. So the small sample size of people age 25 or older obviously makes it difficult to have any discussion as to whether someone is going to fail in the NFL just because you're 25. For the record, the suggestion that a 25 year old, aka someone still well in their physical prime, cannot succeed in the NFL due to their age, is just a preposterous and absurd notion with absolutely no scientific or common sense logic behind it. There's literally nothing that makes a 25 year old less likely to succeed than a 23 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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