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AZBearsFan

Why I’m not sweating cap space

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Here are the base salaries for some of our highly paid and recently extended core players who aren’t going anywhere any time soon. Most of those base salaries can be converted to signing bonuses to reduce their hits significantly. Making the room for pretty much anyone we want won’t be a problem - it’s simply a matter of how willing Pace will be to push this down the road to enhance our chances to win in this newly open window. 

Khalil Mack:

2019 $11.3M

2020 $13.3M

2021 $17.046M

 

Charles Leno:

2019 $7.9M

2020 $7.9M

2021 $8.9M

 

Akiem Hicks: 

2019 $8.0M

2020 $10.2M

2021 $10.4M

 

Trey Burton:

2019 $6.7M

2020 $6.7M

2021 $6.0M

 

Kyle Fuller:

2019 $1.0M

2020 $7.0M

2021 $13.0M

 

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That is a risky game you are playing.

If we knew what was happening with the cap in 2021 I would agree, but we do not know what it will be.

2020 is a big cap year, I would like to make that as clean as possible. Without pushing back too much money.

I am not sweating the cap room, but I think they need to be disciplined.

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Converting Mack's alone would give us that little extra to pay with in order to bring back Amos & Callahan...after that I don't expect fireworks in FA...Hunt/Ingram at RB...maybe a pass rusher or two...a kicker and then hit the draft...very few holes on this team right now...even less if you get Amos & Callahan back.

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Just looking back at the way Pace does business, I think he'll try to resign Amos within reason, and then might let Callahan walk based on injury history

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5 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

Just looking back at the way Pace does business, I think he'll try to resign Amos within reason, and then might let Callahan walk based on injury history

Wouldn't be surprised by that at all.

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10 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

Just looking back at the way Pace does business, I think he'll try to resign Amos within reason, and then might let Callahan walk based on injury history

I think Amos will test the market and it will come down to what his market is.

The problem with converting Mack and signing Amos and Massie is that is probably 17 million off the cap room in 2020.

That would be 33% of the current 2020 cap room.

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3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think Amos will test the market and it will come down to what his market is.

The problem with converting Mack and signing Amos and Massie is that is probably 17 million off the cap room in 2020.

That would be 33% of the current 2020 cap room.

I wasn’t suggesting in the OP that we go ham just because we could - only if there’s a guy we decide is THE missing piece that cost is manageable. If Pace decides he wants Le’Veon Bell at $14M per and then letting both Amos and Callahan leave then from a cost standpoint he could make that work in a bunch of different ways each of which will have varying impact on future moves.

As for 2020 I’m operating already under the assumption that Long and Amukamara and their high cap figures for that year will be gone or well reduced from their current numbers, that Trevathan probably won’t be back and that we will be moving on from Gabriel and replacing him with a younger and less expensive version of himself as Miller’s role expands. 

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29 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I wasn’t suggesting in the OP that we go ham just because we could - only if there’s a guy we decide is THE missing piece that cost is manageable. If Pace decides he wants Le’Veon Bell at $14M per and then letting both Amos and Callahan leave then from a cost standpoint he could make that work in a bunch of different ways each of which will have varying impact on future moves.

As for 2020 I’m operating already under the assumption that Long and Amukamara and their high cap figures for that year will be gone or well reduced from their current numbers, that Trevathan probably won’t be back and that we will be moving on from Gabriel and replacing him with a younger and less expensive version of himself as Miller’s role expands. 

2020 will be a big year. I think the 2019 draft should be about possible replacements for Long and Prince.

They will need those spots to be making rookie money when it shifts to Floyd, Whitehair, Cohen and Jackson.

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6 hours ago, WindyCity said:

2020 will be a big year. I think the 2019 draft should be about possible replacements for Long and Prince.

They will need those spots to be making rookie money when it shifts to Floyd, Whitehair, Cohen and Jackson.

Good analysis Windy, I would add our 2019/20 draft should fall in this order as of now:

2019 3rd: Draft RG to replace Long 

2020 2nd from Oak (probable higher pick of 2 2nds): Highest artes CB available

 

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FWIW Amos is the #11 overall Ranked UFA by PFF and 3rd ranked Safety behind Earl Thomas and Landon Collins and Callahan is ranked #23 overall and the 2nd ranked CB behind Ronald Darby.  So we're probably looking at a top ten deal for Amos and a 10-20 deal for Callahan as a Slot CB w/injuries.

Spotrac estimated a $28 mil/$7 mil apy deal for Callahan and I would guess Amos would be ranked somewhere close to that as well.  But when estimating cap impact the first year cap hit is more typically 75%-80% of the APY due to a cash SB which is spread over the term of the contract and a reduced salary.  So in either case we may be looking at only a $5-$6 mil 2019 cap hit even on a $30 mil deal with 40%-50% guaranteed.

Here's my current thinking on this.

Undoubtedly Eddie Jackson will be a prospect for an extension before the 2020 season and looking at his other defensive costs and his verbal acknowledgement he'll be picking up Floyd's 5th year option, I have to wonder just how much cap space Pace will be willing to tie up in the Safety positions.  Can Amos be replaced with Bush or Houston-Carson, Josh Woods,  a less expensive vet UFA, or a mid round draftee?  Amos was a 5th round pick and there are some decent rookie Safeties projected as rounds 3-5 picks who a DC like Pagano who has been a secondary coach could also develop just as Donatell did.

IMHO Callahan has a rather unique skill set that's been ideal for the Slot CB spot.  Many of us saw this early on and I believe he's been one of Pace's best UDFA finds.  In Callahan's case his injury history may soften the market for him and allow Pace to sign him to a cap friendly deal using per game roster bonuses some of which will not be charged against the 2019 but will be earned provided Callahan stays healthy. The same could also be true in following years as well.  In Callahan's case we also have a proven vet backup in McManis signed for a $1.5 mil salary with a $1.9875 mil cap hit.  So we do have some depth as well.

 

It's a tough choice I admit but I'm thinking Amos will attract more interest in FA and will be less likely to sign without testing the market unless Pace is willing to offer him a top ten deal at a minimum.  Callahan was tendered at the lowest level in 2018 and got no competing offers.  His injury history may drive others away or to make far lower offers than Pace may be willing to make if Callahan will accept bonuses based on playing time.  Just thinking.

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Amos can be replaced at same level with cheaper options.  Right on the roster Bush is almost as good as Amos and a more physical player.

Non playmaking safeties are a dime a dozen. Amos benefited in 2018 from improved overall defense.  If Bush or rookie starts you will see little drop off at that position (assuming healthy teammates).

Good football player, but replaceable. 

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I think there is a pretty stark difference in Amos and Bush, but it is at a lower impact position. I personally would like to double down on making QBs hate playing Chicago by putting another rangy FS there. I'd LOVE Thornhill but the more I watched him the more I think he is a 2nd round player.

 

NB is the more important position, and smart teams will adjust and pick on McManis more. I'd rather either get Tolliver out there with Fuller and Amukamara to get Tolliver more snaps, as he is potentially a future starter for us. I'd be content using our 3rd to snag a CB as well, since Massie is locked in that is the biggest need IMO.

 

And @soulman, the James Brown avi is pretty sweet. Just introduced my kids to his music a few weeks ago after they got into this Motown Magic show on Netflix.

Edited by Sugashane

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1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

I think there is a pretty stark difference in Amos and Bush, but it is at a lower impact position. I personally would like to double down on making QBs hate playing Chicago by putting another rangy FS there. I'd LOVE Thornhill but the more I watched him the more I think he is a 2nd round player.

 

NB is the more important position, and smart teams will adjust and pick on McManis more. I'd rather either get Tolliver out there with Fuller and Amukamara to get Tolliver more snaps, as he is potentially a future starter for us. I'd be content using our 3rd to snag a CB as well, since Massie is locked in that is the biggest need IMO.

 

And @soulman, the James Brown avi is pretty sweet. Just introduced my kids to his music a few weeks ago after they got into this Motown Magic show on Netflix.

Just figured the King of Funk/Soul should get some love brother.  Thanks.  Sounds to me like your raising you kids on the best of the best too.

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If either Amos or Callahan come back the Bears will need to move the Mack money.

Moving the Mack money is not the end of the world because of how long his deal is and how many years it gets spread on. But those are some big cap numbers.

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As has been kicked around, I think getting Callahan on a CAP friendly deal would be a good bet. Strong in the box run support safeties are available in FA. I put Clayton Geathers from the Colts as a target because of his strong run support.

Edited by malagabears

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