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Why I’m not sweating cap space

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12 hours ago, soulman said:

Just figured the King of Funk/Soul should get some love brother.  Thanks.  Sounds to me like your raising you kids on the best of the best too.

Paul, great to see you around these parts again. Enjoy reading your CAP insight as well as Windy's.

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3 hours ago, malagabears said:

Paul, great to see you around these parts again. Enjoy reading your CAP insight as well as Windy's.

 

Caution.....do not listen to this guy.  He's my good friend and you have to be careful around anyone who might actually agree with me.  xD

Oh yeah, I should add.....I like it here.  It's a nice forum.

Edited by soulman

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On 1/27/2019 at 3:44 PM, WindyCity said:

If we knew what was happening with the cap in 2021 I would agree, but we do not know what it will be.

2020 is a big cap year, I would like to make that as clean as possible. Without pushing back too much money.

2021 is not the only year that could be affected by the CBA. 2020 could as well like it was in 2006.

Obviously none of us can predict what will happen in 2020 or 2021 with the new CBA but there are 3 different ways to look at this in order to project what the salary cap could be in 2020 based on history. For 2020, we are most likely looking at a cap of anywhere from 199.8M up to 225.5M. Read below for reasons and how I figured these numbers. (or just the TL:DR B|)

TL:DR:  

---IF a extension agreement is not reached in 2020 we could be looking at another uncapped year like 2010. In which case the (unofficial) cap would be the same as this years expected $189M. If that happens, we're screwed not only for next year but also in 2021 where things could get very ugly. 

---IF an extension is reached next year, we could possibly be looking at a $16.5M increase in cap space for 2020 ($205.5M) like we saw in 2006 and possibly even more. We saw a cap raise of 16.5M from 2005 to 2006 after an extension agreement was reached which was 19.3% increase. If that trend continues then we could be looking at $225.5M in 2020.

---IF an agreement is reached and things go relatively smoothly and the cap space continues at the pace that we're at right now, then we're looking at $199.8M in 2020 and $211.1M in 2021 based on expected numbers from current trend cap increase/decrease percentages from the last 5 years.

1) Using 2010-2011 as a base figure. 

 The last CBA extension talks in 2010 failed which led to not only a stoppage in 2011 but also an uncapped year in 2010. The salary cap in 2009 was a $123M and after things were restored to normal in 2011 the cap was set at $120M (or -2.4% decrease). Now during the uncapped year most teams didn't go crazy because of this and kept treating the cap as if it were still the same as 2009 ($123M).

If we were to use this a base then we would need to assume that 2020 will also be an uncapped year. Which, based on the possible chain of events, starts an entirely new convo that I'm not willing to spend time on. But for the sake of number argument, we would have to do the same as teams did in 2010 and use the expected 2019 salary, which is expected to be about $189M. Then to predict the 2021 cap we would have to reduce the expected $3.0M (-2.4%) drop-off to use a base figure which would be $186M.

2) Using 2006-2007 as a base figure. 

 In 2006, the CBA agreed to an extension with no stoppage and during this time the cap actually had it's 2nd highest increase in salary cap with a whopping 19.3%. The cap went from $85.5M up to $102M. That was the most since 1998 when the cap saw a 26.4% increase (41.5 to 52.4). The two biggest in history still till this day. 

If we were to use this as base then we would need to assume the expected $189M jumps up to $225.1M(19.3%). Or just look at in terms of dollar increase which is 16.5M. This means it could also be 205.5M.

3) Using the same current trend based on previous 5 years.

Assuming the cap this year is the same as it is projected to be, $188.7M (6.5% increase), this means the cap has risen 11.1M/yr on average in the last 5 years. Using this as a base would assume the projected salary cap for 2020 would be $199.8M or a 5.9% increase. 

I wouldn't count on this too part too much to be honest because the chances of the financial standings and projections to remain the same during the CBA talks are very slim. Especially with everything that has happened since 2011 how much the dynamics have changed since then. 

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7 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

2021 is not the only year that could be affected by the CBA. 2020 could as well like it was in 2006.

Obviously none of us can predict what will happen in 2020 or 2021 with the new CBA but there are 3 different ways to look at this in order to project what the salary cap could be in 2020 based on history. For 2020, we are most likely looking at a cap of anywhere from 199.8M up to 225.5M. Read below for reasons and how I figured these numbers. (or just the TL:DR B|)

TL:DR:  

---IF a extension agreement is not reached in 2020 we could be looking at another uncapped year like 2010. In which case the (unofficial) cap would be the same as this years expected $189M. If that happens, we're screwed not only for next year but also in 2021 where things could get very ugly. 

---IF an extension is reached next year, we could possibly be looking at a $16.5M increase in cap space for 2020 ($205.5M) like we saw in 2006 and possibly even more. We saw a cap raise of 16.5M from 2005 to 2006 after an extension agreement was reached which was 19.3% increase. If that trend continues then we could be looking at $225.5M in 2020.

---IF an agreement is reached and things go relatively smoothly and the cap space continues at the pace that we're at right now, then we're looking at $199.8M in 2020 and $211.1M in 2021 based on expected numbers from current trend cap increase/decrease percentages from the last 5 years.

1) Using 2010-2011 as a base figure. 

 The last CBA extension talks in 2010 failed which led to not only a stoppage in 2011 but also an uncapped year in 2010. The salary cap in 2009 was a $123M and after things were restored to normal in 2011 the cap was set at $120M (or -2.4% decrease). Now during the uncapped year most teams didn't go crazy because of this and kept treating the cap as if it were still the same as 2009 ($123M).

If we were to use this a base then we would need to assume that 2020 will also be an uncapped year. Which, based on the possible chain of events, starts an entirely new convo that I'm not willing to spend time on. But for the sake of number argument, we would have to do the same as teams did in 2010 and use the expected 2019 salary, which is expected to be about $189M. Then to predict the 2021 cap we would have to reduce the expected $3.0M (-2.4%) drop-off to use a base figure which would be $186M.

2) Using 2006-2007 as a base figure. 

 In 2006, the CBA agreed to an extension with no stoppage and during this time the cap actually had it's 2nd highest increase in salary cap with a whopping 19.3%. The cap went from $85.5M up to $102M. That was the most since 1998 when the cap saw a 26.4% increase (41.5 to 52.4). The two biggest in history still till this day. 

If we were to use this as base then we would need to assume the expected $189M jumps up to $225.1M(19.3%). Or just look at in terms of dollar increase which is 16.5M. This means it could also be 205.5M.

3) Using the same current trend based on previous 5 years.

Assuming the cap this year is the same as it is projected to be, $188.7M (6.5% increase), this means the cap has risen 11.1M/yr on average in the last 5 years. Using this as a base would assume the projected salary cap for 2020 would be $199.8M or a 5.9% increase. 

I wouldn't count on this too part too much to be honest because the chances of the financial standings and projections to remain the same during the CBA talks are very slim. Especially with everything that has happened since 2011 how much the dynamics have changed since then. 

Nicely done!

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Crazy thing, after the last lockout and CBA deal the cap actually went down for the first year after by 3-5 million.

That would be a disaster and why I think we need to be careful about how much restructuring we are doing.

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11 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Crazy thing, after the last lockout and CBA deal the cap actually went down for the first year after by 3-5 million.

That would be a disaster and why I think we need to be careful about how much restructuring we are doing.

Let's talk about why that was in both circumstances.  In both cases it's the same reason.  The CBA allocates a % of revenue to the players.  In 06 that # went from 45% to 50%.  What that means is that over a certain period the salary cap has to adjusted to meet that revenue split.  Because of the increase in revenue split, the cap jumped significantly.  In 2011 the owners gained back some in the revenue split, giving the players a 47% split.  Therefore the cap dropped in order to compensate.  You can rest assured the players arent taking less than 47% again, therefore the cap will not decrease, unless revenue decreases.  The only way revenue will decrease is if the NFL loses games to a prolonged work stoppage, which hasn't happened since 1987, and I suspect isnt happening anytime soon.  No real need to worry about a cap decrease.

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3 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Let's talk about why that was in both circumstances.  In both cases it's the same reason.  The CBA allocates a % of revenue to the players.  In 06 that # went from 45% to 50%.  What that means is that over a certain period the salary cap has to adjusted to meet that revenue split.  Because of the increase in revenue split, the cap jumped significantly.  In 2011 the owners gained back some in the revenue split, giving the players a 47% split.  Therefore the cap dropped in order to compensate.  You can rest assured the players arent taking less than 47% again, therefore the cap will not decrease, unless revenue decreases.  The only way revenue will decrease is if the NFL loses games to a prolonged work stoppage, which hasn't happened since 1987, and I suspect isnt happening anytime soon.  No real need to worry about a cap decrease.

It would shock me as well.

But you never know with the NFLPA, they ft hosed last time on so many things they may be willing to give back a little cash for Les commissioner power, no franchise tag, increase to rookie wage scale (which they go screwed on).

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3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

It would shock me as well.

But you never know with the NFLPA, they ft hosed last time on so many things they may be willing to give back a little cash for Les commissioner power, no franchise tag, increase to rookie wage scale (which they go screwed on).

Ther we is no on this planet, or any other that the NFLPA is giving back money for any of those things.  The rookie scale was the nflpas idea, they didnt get screwed on any of it.  The only reason that they gave anything back in '11 was that the owners made it clear it was the only way players were going back to work.  The NFL had spent 3 years preparing for the lockout and knew they were 100% getting money back from revenue.  

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