Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

[coachbuns]

2 hours ago, SSG said:

Don't think this is true at all.  Packer fans are still up in the air about passing TJ Watt.  While Watt was slightly more productive he required almost twice as many snaps.  Watt had 2.5 more sacks, 4 more tackles for loss and just one more QB hit.  He also played in over 335 more snaps with his defense (Davenport played in 416 RS and Playoff snaps because of the preseason hand surgery and the in season toe injury that costs him a month).

If Packer fans are excited about Alexander after his rookie season they'd be jumping up and down about Davenport who looked dominate on occasion last year.  I'd imagine that New Orleans fans are extremely excited about Davenports future.

Don't see it being the same conversation in regards to Fack who didn't look like anything more than a STer for the entirety of his first 2 seasons.  As a rookie he was more known for being thrown 15 yards through the air by Trent Williams than anything he did on the field.

Fack has to show me again this year for me to believe last year wasn't a fluke.  Far as Davenport, he seems to be a nice player just like Alexander.  However, you combine the 1st round pick from NO plus Alexander ... that's a win win for me.  One year doesn't make a player either way.

[SSG]

13 hours ago, coachbuns said:

Fack has to show me again this year for me to believe last year wasn't a fluke.  Far as Davenport, he seems to be a nice player just like Alexander.  However, you combine the 1st round pick from NO plus Alexander ... that's a win win for me.  One year doesn't make a player either way.

I agree, though it wasn't exactly Alexander and the #30 for Davenport.  We used a 3rd round pick to trade up into that #18 spot.  To give you an idea of it's value, Sam Hubbard who had 6 sacks last year was picked one pick after that #76 pick.  

[CWood21]

17 hours ago, SSG said:

Don't think this is true at all.  Packer fans are still up in the air about passing TJ Watt.  While Watt was slightly more productive he required almost twice as many snaps.  Watt had 2.5 more sacks, 4 more tackles for loss and just one more QB hit.  He also played in over 335 more snaps with his defense (Davenport played in 416 RS and Playoff snaps because of the preseason hand surgery and the in season toe injury that costs him a month).

If Packer fans are excited about Alexander after his rookie season they'd be jumping up and down about Davenport who looked dominate on occasion last year.  I'd imagine that New Orleans fans are extremely excited about Davenports future.

Don't see it being the same conversation in regards to Fack who didn't look like anything more than a STer for the entirety of his first 2 seasons.  As a rookie he was more known for being thrown 15 yards through the air by Trent Williams than anything he did on the field.

Packers fans are upset because TJ Watt turned out to be a productive pass rusher and we're a team that is short on quality pass rushers.  And that's compounded by the fact that Kevin King has struggled to stay healthy.  If Kevin King had managed to stay healthy and played at a high level, there'd be significantly less complaining about that pick.  Although, this is definitely a hindsight argument since most of this forum preferred the King/Biegel combination to Watt.

As for Marcus Davenport thing, rookie DL usually have their struggles in their first year.  It's the development from their first to second year that usually defines them.  Occasionally, you see pass rushers develop in that 3rd year, but you're usually looking for improvements from their rookie to sophomore year.  But in terms of what they did their rookie years, what Jaire Alexander did as a rookie CB (which isn't an easy transition position), you'd argue he was significantly more impressive than Davenport.  And add on the fact that the Saints gave up a FRP for Davenport, and you would have figured you would have gotten a bit more out of him.  Part of that was the injuries, but part of that was the fact that he was a bit of a raw pass rusher coming out of UTSA.  Right now, it worked out for both teams.  We will see if that remains.

[CWood21]

On 2/13/2019 at 11:00 AM, coachbuns said:

Considering we got a darn nice cornerback who performed very well this year and another 1st round pick, I'm not looking back at not drafting  Davenport one iota.  Pretty shrewd move and will be even better if that 30th pick pans out like we hope it does.

It was pretty amusing how irate the board was when they announced the trade down.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

I agree, though it wasn't exactly Alexander and the #30 for Davenport.  We used a 3rd round pick to trade up into that #18 spot.  To give you an idea of it's value, Sam Hubbard who had 6 sacks last year was picked one pick after that #76 pick.  

And that's probably the "best case" scenario for the pick we gave up.  But in terms of history, you're looking at roughly a 25% chance of success with that 3rd round pick.  I'd rather have two 60% chances of a hit than a 60% chance and a 25% chance of success.  What Gute did in the '18 draft was nothing short of a shrewd move.  He knew where the market deficiencies (New Orleans and Seattle lacking a SRP), so he used the value of the future FRP to move down and then traded up for significantly less than what the Saints gave to move up.  That's not something you'd anticipate a rookie GM doing.

[SSG]

1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Packers fans are upset because TJ Watt turned out to be a productive pass rusher and we're a team that is short on quality pass rushers.  And that's compounded by the fact that Kevin King has struggled to stay healthy.  If Kevin King had managed to stay healthy and played at a high level, there'd be significantly less complaining about that pick.  Although, this is definitely a hindsight argument since most of this forum preferred the King/Biegel combination to Watt.

As for Marcus Davenport thing, rookie DL usually have their struggles in their first year.  It's the development from their first to second year that usually defines them.  Occasionally, you see pass rushers develop in that 3rd year, but you're usually looking for improvements from their rookie to sophomore year.  But in terms of what they did their rookie years, what Jaire Alexander did as a rookie CB (which isn't an easy transition position), you'd argue he was significantly more impressive than Davenport.  And add on the fact that the Saints gave up a FRP for Davenport, and you would have figured you would have gotten a bit more out of him.  Part of that was the injuries, but part of that was the fact that he was a bit of a raw pass rusher coming out of UTSA.  Right now, it worked out for both teams.  We will see if that remains.

 

We'll agree to disagree.  I don't think Alexander, who got substantially more playing time, was any more impressive than Davenport.  I'm sure the Saints would have loved to have him healthy and more productive but I'm sure Saint fans are extreamly excited about his future.  He looked dominate for long stretches last year before his toe injury.  He didn't have the same burst after his return.  Like you said though, we're at the beginning of both of their books.  Remains to be seen if Alexander and the #30 this year is going to be better than Davenport and the 3rd round pick that we used to trade up.

Obviously in hindsight with a lot of unknowns (like who's being drafted at 30) but I don't think it's a slam dunk conversation that we'd rather have Alexander and #30 over Davenport and Sam Hubbard who was taken one pick after the 3rd round pick we traded to move up.  

[coachbuns]

25 minutes ago, SSG said:

 

We'll agree to disagree.  I don't think Alexander, who got substantially more playing time, was any more impressive than Davenport.  I'm sure the Saints would have loved to have him healthy and more productive but I'm sure Saint fans are extreamly excited about his future.  He looked dominate for long stretches last year before his toe injury.  He didn't have the same burst after his return.  Like you said though, we're at the beginning of both of their books.  Remains to be seen if Alexander and the #30 this year is going to be better than Davenport and the 3rd round pick that we used to trade up.

Obviously in hindsight with a lot of unknowns (like who's being drafted at 30) but I don't think it's a slam dunk conversation that we'd rather have Alexander and #30 over Davenport and Sam Hubbard who was taken one pick after the 3rd round pick we traded to move up.  

We'll agree to disagree. Who says we'd have picked Hubbard?  That's a guess at best.  Like our chances of Alexander and #30 more than Davenport and #75/76. 

 

[rcon14]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Packers fans are upset because TJ Watt turned out to be a productive pass rusher and we're a team that is short on quality pass rushers.  And that's compounded by the fact that Kevin King has struggled to stay healthy.  If Kevin King had managed to stay healthy and played at a high level, there'd be significantly less complaining about that pick.  Although, this is definitely a hindsight argument since most of this forum preferred the King/Biegel combination to Watt.

The Watt thing is super complicated because it's not entirely football-related, but it's also not entirely not football related. Watt was extremely productive at UW (all while being relatively new to EDGE), but there were some real question marks in his game (he only had the push-pull pass rush move, seriously, that was like it). But, TJ Watt is a FREAK athlete. Guys with his type of scores are other elite athletes (Barr, and JJ Watt to name a couple).

TJ's scores, in percentile: Power 84, Speed 40 53rd, Agility 93rd, Speed 10 85th, Twitch 91st

I would've taken Watt, but I also understand the reservations that maybe he is just an OBLB. I don't agree but I understand. It extra sucks for GB because the two picks they received in that trade have had careers impacted/ruined by injuries. Kevin King is another freak athlete (basically a perfect construction of a CB) but his groin just won't stay in-tact. And then Vince Biegel, who was actually also a good athlete, had his career basically ruined by multiple foot injuries.

Biegel's scores, in percentile: Power 34th, Speed 40 54th, Agility 79th, Speed 10 50th, Twitch 68th

So while certainly not on TJ's level, this is a guy who should have at a bare minimum been an EDGE2, but then his feet fell apart and he's just not the same athlete anymore.

I don't think GB really had a bad choice if at the time you gave them either TJ Watt or Kevin King and Vince Biegel. Just hasn't worked out.

[SSG]

55 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

We'll agree to disagree. Who says we'd have picked Hubbard?  That's a guess at best.  Like our chances of Alexander and #30 more than Davenport and #75/76. 

 

Obviously it's in hindsight.  Outside of Chubb, Hubbard was the most effective of the rookie edge rushers when it came to rushing the passer.  He had 6 sacks while playing a very limited snap count (just 45% of his team's defensive snaps).  Chances are slim that we're going to see that sort of production or efficency out of any edge player we draft this year.  We haven't gotten 6 sacks in a season out of a rookie defender since CM3.  

 

Looking at our current team and what's going to likely be available at 12 or 30.  I could find myself leaning towards Davenport and Hubbard over Alexander and whom ever we draft at 30.  We've pretty easily got the league's 2 or 3 worst groups of edge rushers and I'm not loving the prospects in this year's draft after the first 4 or 5.  The idea of drafting Burns, who's closer to being the size of a big Safety than a true 3 down edge defender, is making me cringe.  Likely a lose lose either way because we'd be having to replace Alexander who's pretty clearly the best CB we've got.  

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

We'll agree to disagree.  I don't think Alexander, who got substantially more playing time, was any more impressive than Davenport.  I'm sure the Saints would have loved to have him healthy and more productive but I'm sure Saint fans are extreamly excited about his future.  He looked dominate for long stretches last year before his toe injury.  He didn't have the same burst after his return.  Like you said though, we're at the beginning of both of their books.  Remains to be seen if Alexander and the #30 this year is going to be better than Davenport and the 3rd round pick that we used to trade up.

Obviously in hindsight with a lot of unknowns (like who's being drafted at 30) but I don't think it's a slam dunk conversation that we'd rather have Alexander and #30 over Davenport and Sam Hubbard who was taken one pick after the 3rd round pick we traded to move up.  

Except it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.  One is a pass rusher whose expected to play between 40% and 50% of the defensive snaps, and a DB whose expected to play 70%+ as a rookie.  He was 3rd in terms of snaps at 416 and finished 4.5 sacks on the season.  Even if you wanted to make an apple-to-apple comparison, Jaire played in 760 snaps.  Just for comparison, the pass rushers taken in the first round of the 2017 draft were Myles Garrett (48.5% of the snaps, 7 sacks), Haason Redick (42% of the snaps, 2.5 sacks), Derek Barnett (41.2% of the snaps, 5 sacks), Charles Harris (47.5% of the snaps, 2 sacks), Takk McKinley (38.2% of the snaps, 6 sacks), Taco Charlton (38.2% of the snaps, 3 sacks), and TJ Watt (76.6% of the snaps, 7 sacks).  TJ Watt is clearly the anomaly of the group playing nearly the double the number of snaps as the rookie pass rushers.  In theory, you'd think his production would nearly be double but the reality is that it probably wore him down playing that many snaps.  In terms of production, Davenport was on par with Derek Barnett and Taco Charlton.  He did exactly what he was supposed to do.  Give solid production.

Right now, Jaire has produced more on more snaps which is why so far he's been more impressive.  That's not taking anything away from Marcus Davenport.  But there's a reason why we don't make these concrete conclusions based on one year.  But right now, Jaire has been better than Davenport.  And when you add in the swap of 3rd round pick for a future FRP, it gets even bigger.

[fattlipp]

On ‎2‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 10:08 AM, vegas492 said:

 

I'm a pretty big Davenport fan.  And he was injured most of last year.  I saw him flash a couple times.  I'll tell you this.  GB doesn't have anyone at OLB with his size and that speed.  I was amazed at how that kid can cover ground.  Also....the little I saw, he had agility and change of direction issues, in that he almost comes to a complete stop when he has to change direction.  Feet stop moving...etc.  He's poor there.  In GB, I think he would have been a very good power OLB.  I liken him to Jaylon Ferguson in this draft, though I think that Fergie has more agility.  Not great agility, but better agility and a little more bend.  I don't get why there isn't more love for Ferguson right now.  If he's there at #30, I can't help but think that is a great pick.

Perry is 2-3" shorter but same weight ran a 4.55-4.64, same as MD

Nick Perry NFL Combine Scores. DE [] Southern California ... Last Name: Perry. Nickname: Position: DE ... 6'3 271 40 Yard Dash: 4.55 seconds. 40 Yard (MPH):, 17.98 

[SSG]

7 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Except it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.  One is a pass rusher whose expected to play between 40% and 50% of the defensive snaps, and a DB whose expected to play 70%+ as a rookie.  He was 3rd in terms of snaps at 416 and finished 4.5 sacks on the season.  Even if you wanted to make an apple-to-apple comparison, Jaire played in 760 snaps.  Just for comparison, the pass rushers taken in the first round of the 2017 draft were Myles Garrett (48.5% of the snaps, 7 sacks), Haason Redick (42% of the snaps, 2.5 sacks), Derek Barnett (41.2% of the snaps, 5 sacks), Charles Harris (47.5% of the snaps, 2 sacks), Takk McKinley (38.2% of the snaps, 6 sacks), Taco Charlton (38.2% of the snaps, 3 sacks), and TJ Watt (76.6% of the snaps, 7 sacks).  TJ Watt is clearly the anomaly of the group playing nearly the double the number of snaps as the rookie pass rushers.  In theory, you'd think his production would nearly be double but the reality is that it probably wore him down playing that many snaps.  In terms of production, Davenport was on par with Derek Barnett and Taco Charlton.  He did exactly what he was supposed to do.  Give solid production.

Right now, Jaire has produced more on more snaps which is why so far he's been more impressive.  That's not taking anything away from Marcus Davenport.  But there's a reason why we don't make these concrete conclusions based on one year.  But right now, Jaire has been better than Davenport.  And when you add in the swap of 3rd round pick for a future FRP, it gets even bigger.

Like I said.  We'll agree to disagree.   While Alexander played well, he was a far cry from being a shut down CB with his inconsistancies.  While no where near as good as rookies like Ramsey, Lattimore, Ward or White and he was on par for what we've seen from a lot of the first round CBs we've seen over the last couple years (Peters, Hargraves,  Humprey, Jackson, Apple, ect).  I fail to find his rookie season all that remarkable.  Good for a rookie, yes.  Amazing, a far cry from.  I don't see it being anymore or less impressive than Davenport's given the substantial amount of time he missed in TC and in the middle of the season.  

Davenport was on  par with Charlton and Barnett because of a deabilitating foot injury that costed him a month of the season not because his play was.  He also got to training camp a month late because of the hand surgery.  Kind of disingenuous to compare him to perfectly healthy guys like McKinley, Charlton, Barnett and Harris because they fit the narrative.  Davenport was seing the field on around 50% of the defensive snaps before he got hurt.  He had 4 sacks and 7 QB hits while bringing consistant pressure on the QB (he had 28 on the year).  He was also strong in run support missing just 1 tackle on the season.  

 

[SSG]

1 hour ago, fattlipp said:

Perry is 2-3" shorter but same weight ran a 4.55-4.64, same as MD

Nick Perry NFL Combine Scores. DE [] Southern California ... Last Name: Perry. Nickname: Position: DE ... 6'3 271 40 Yard Dash: 4.55 seconds. 40 Yard (MPH):, 17.98 

That's 2012's version of Nick Perry, not the broken down Nick Perry we're unfortunetly rostering in 2019.  

[vegas492]

1 hour ago, fattlipp said:

Perry is 2-3" shorter but same weight ran a 4.55-4.64, same as MD

Nick Perry NFL Combine Scores. DE [] Southern California ... Last Name: Perry. Nickname: Position: DE ... 6'3 271 40 Yard Dash: 4.55 seconds. 40 Yard (MPH):, 17.98 

 

16 minutes ago, SSG said:

That's 2012's version of Nick Perry, not the broken down Nick Perry we're unfortunetly rostering in 2019.  

I'll add to this...that was the Combing Training Nick Perry.  We never saw that kind of speed out of him.  Even when he was young and relatively healthy.  

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

Like I said.  We'll agree to disagree.   While Alexander played well, he was a far cry from being a shut down CB with his inconsistancies.  While no where near as good as rookies like Ramsey, Lattimore, Ward or White and he was on par for what we've seen from a lot of the first round CBs we've seen over the last couple years (Peters, Hargraves,  Humprey, Jackson, Apple, ect).  I fail to find his rookie season all that remarkable.  Good for a rookie, yes.  Amazing, a far cry from.  I don't see it being anymore or less impressive than Davenport's given the substantial amount of time he missed in TC and in the middle of the season.  

Davenport was on  par with Charlton and Barnett because of a deabilitating foot injury that costed him a month of the season not because his play was.  He also got to training camp a month late because of the hand surgery.  Kind of disingenuous to compare him to perfectly healthy guys like McKinley, Charlton, Barnett and Harris because they fit the narrative.  Davenport was seing the field on around 50% of the defensive snaps before he got hurt.  He had 4 sacks and 7 QB hits while bringing consistant pressure on the QB (he had 28 on the year).  He was also strong in run support missing just 1 tackle on the season.  

So because he's not playing at an elite level as a rookie CB, it somehow makes it less impressive?  Talk about moving goalposts.    And I'd definitely not say that Denzel Ward was on a different level from Jaire by any means.  He's been more than on par, unless your opinion of what Jaire did last year is super low.  You're sitting here and making excuses for why Davenport's production was lackluster, but you're not applying that same logic to Jaire.  Did Jaire stay completely healthy?  No, but you're not applying that logic to Jaire.  Why?  This is why your entire argument falls apart.  Davenport was good, don't get me wrong but the notion that he was as good as Jaire was probably isn't the case.  And even if you want to argue that Davenport was as or more productive than Jaire, that doesn't change the difference between the FRP we're receiving from the Saints and the likely production from our third round pick we gave up last year.