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Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Since 2010, we've seen 18 seasons from TEs who have gotten at least 1000 yards receiving.  Of those 18, the least amount of targets that a TE got was 105 from Rob Gronkowski in 2017.  As I've mentioned before, rookie TEs usually don't produce as a rookie.  If we take him at 12, I'm going to be irritated.

Same. At 30 I can get behind it, but it's tough for TEs to impact the game enough to be worth the 12th pick unless they are an all-time great.

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54 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

Same. At 30 I can get behind it, but it's tough for TEs to impact the game enough to be worth the 12th pick unless they are an all-time great.

A rookie can't be any less impactful than Graham who's been one of the least productive #2 target's in this current offense's history.  You give any warm body the snaps and the second most targets and his season is easily replicated.  Heck, Richard Rodgers almost replicated it in his only season where he got close to 700 regular season snaps with the offense (Graham had 795).  At least with Hock we're not going to have a TE who's the worthless pile of pads that Graham is isn every single instance he's asked to block.

I like Hock as much as anyone and think Graham's one of the most overrated players in the NFL right now but 12 is way too early for a TE given how terrible of a roster we've got.

Edited by SSG

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Just now, SSG said:

A rookie can't be any less impactful than Graham who's been one of the least productive #2 target's in this current offense's history.  You give any warm body the snaps and the second most targets and his season is easily replicated.  Heck, Richard Rodgers almost replicated it in his only season where he got close to 700 regular season snaps with the offense (Graham had 795).  At least with Hock we're not going to have a TE who's the worthless pile of pads that Graham is isn every single instance he's asked to block.

I never said they shouldn't acquire a TE. It's just the opportunity cost of using the 12th pick on a TE is very high, and the value you're going to get from that likely won't exceed the opportunity cost of acquiring a player at a more impactful position.

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Trade 12 for 24 and 27, raiders need a DE,

draft

24 Hockenson

27 Adderly

30  Burns

 

Edited by fattlipp

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

We've got two picks in the top 30.  If we don't get at least 2 immediate starters out of this year's draft, I'm going to be disappointed.

At least.  I'm thinking as high as our 2nd and 3rd rounder is, they should be helping at a position too.

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1 hour ago, rcon14 said:

I never said they shouldn't acquire a TE. It's just the opportunity cost of using the 12th pick on a TE is very high, and the value you're going to get from that likely won't exceed the opportunity cost of acquiring a player at a more impactful position.

I'd argue there are only impactful players, not positions.

 

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45 minutes ago, fattlipp said:

Trade 12 for 24 and 27, raiders need a DE,

draft

24 Hockenson

27 Adderly

30  Burns

Okay.

Now who are your fall back options when those players arent available?

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1 hour ago, Leader said:

Okay.

Now who are your fall back options when those players arent available?

We have a 30 man big board, getting 3 works,   

If they are gone a top 3 OL , DL or WR would be there.

3 of Adderly, Hockenson, Burns, Polite, Wilkins, Ferrell, Gary, Fant, Metcalf, Ferguson, Little, White, Mack, Brown, Samuel, Simmons, Smith, Oliver, Thompson and Lawrence.

Edited by fattlipp

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

We've got two picks in the top 30.  If we don't get at least 2 immediate starters out of this year's draft, I'm going to be disappointed.

Why can't a starting OL pick come from round 2-4? It's usually where we've had success previously with Bahk as the golden child example

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18 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Since 2010, we've seen 18 seasons from TEs who have gotten at least 1000 yards receiving.  Of those 18, the least amount of targets that a TE got was 105 from Rob Gronkowski in 2017.  As I've mentioned before, rookie TEs usually don't produce as a rookie.  If we take him at 12, I'm going to be irritated.

What is with this infatuation with the rookie year from a tight end?  You need to get over it, honestly.  

Most rookie TE's don't play very much because they can't block.  Hock can block.

Most DT's don't play at an elite level until year 3 or 4, but I don't see anyone complaining about that.  Same with edge rushers.  You're going to see them take a step in year 2 and then really turn it on in year 3 and 4 when they learn how to use their hands.  

If you're worried about year 1 production then we should take a back with the 12th pick.  

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8 hours ago, Cheech said:

What is with this infatuation with the rookie year from a tight end?  You need to get over it, honestly.  

Most rookie TE's don't play very much because they can't block.  Hock can block.

Most DT's don't play at an elite level until year 3 or 4, but I don't see anyone complaining about that.  Same with edge rushers.  You're going to see them take a step in year 2 and then really turn it on in year 3 and 4 when they learn how to use their hands.  

If you're worried about year 1 production then we should take a back with the 12th pick.  

Let's look at the top 10 TEs this past season in terms of YPT (Yards Per Target).  Mind you this is all TEs with at least 40 receptions, so we're eliminating all the guys with small sample sizes.

George Kittle (146th overall)
Rob Gronkowski (42nd overall)
Travis Kelce (63rd overall)
Jared Cook (89th overall)
Vance McDonald (55th overall)
Kyle Rudolph (43rd overall)
Austin Hooper (81st overall)
Trey Burton (UDFA)
Zach Ertz (35th overall)
David Njoku (29th overall)

That's on average the 65th pick, or the equivalent of the first pick of the 3rd round.  And you're advocating using the HIGHEST pick we've had since we took B.J. Raji 9th overall?  That's not idiotic.  That's downright stupid.  That's borderline Lions' FO logic right there.  Ask the Lions how drafting Eric Ebron 10th overall went for them?  Ask Niners' fans how much Vernon Davis helped them after being drafted 6th overall?  How about Kellen Winslow and the Browns?  Or go back and remember how much of an impact Bubba Franks didn't have on the Packers.  Taking a TE in the top 12 is BEYOND stupid.  There's not a SINGLE logical explanation to take a TE at 12.  None.  They aren't BPA, they aren't getting positional value nod, and they're certainly not making an impact at a high enough level to justify taking one that early either.

You talk about DTs not playing at an elite level until Y3 or Y4, which is inherently false.  Kenny Clark has been nothing short of amazing last year.  Aaron Donald had 11 sacks in his second season.  Geno Atkins had 7 sacks in his sophomore year.  Mike Daniels in his 2nd year had 6.5 sacks.  The reality is that interior pass rusher significantly impacts the game more than a TE ever will.

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On 2/8/2019 at 6:16 PM, fattlipp said:

Trade 12 for 24 and 27, raiders need a DE,

draft

24 Hockenson

27 Adderly

30  Burns

 

So do we.  We need quality and not quantity.  I do like that TE you suggested so I hope he is there at #30.

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37 minutes ago, Pugger said:

So do we.  We need quality and not quantity.  I do like that TE you suggested so I hope he is there at #30.

This!  Quality, quality, quality over quantity  and must fill more holes with free agency.  That is where you can have a little more positions filled but would prefer mid/high level there too.

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I don't understand the obsession with taking the highest pick we've had in a decade and bailing on it. There's no configuration of players that will be drafted 1-11 that doesn't leave us with a potentially great player at 12, that we wouldn't greatly risk missing out on even if we only traded down to, say, pick #15. Almost every team could use more top edge rushers and DTs

There will be a top 10 defensive player at pick #12. I would be immensely disappointed if we're sitting there with Jachai Polite or Ed Oliver looking us in the face and we trade down to the 20's to take the same caliber of player we've been taking for the last decade, sans Jaire Alexander. 

The same is true about packaging #30 and #44 or whatever to move up from the bottom. We need both quality AND quantity, and our current assortment of picks gives us exactly that without having to overthink it and move around. #12 should be the highest pick we have for a while. #30 is a bonus pick and we shouldn't condense that for the sake of moving up. And #44 is the highest we should be in the 2nd round for a while. If we don't get 3 top 50 players, including one top 10 player (2 teams will reach for QBs ahead of us), I will be sore. 

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On 2/9/2019 at 10:04 AM, Cheech said:

What is with this infatuation with the rookie year from a tight end?  You need to get over it, honestly.  

Most rookie TE's don't play very much because they can't block.  Hock can block.

Most DT's don't play at an elite level until year 3 or 4, but I don't see anyone complaining about that.  Same with edge rushers.  You're going to see them take a step in year 2 and then really turn it on in year 3 and 4 when they learn how to use their hands.  

If you're worried about year 1 production then we should take a back with the 12th pick.  

You think Hock is the only tight end ever drafted who could block? I'd challenge you to look up the history of first year tight ends, but I know you won't, so I'll just tell you it's not only about blocking for first year tight ends.  They don't have impacts in their first year.

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