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Would you consider these two at #12 and #30?

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24 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

IMO your positional grades should have a multiplier in it based on position. Take the grade you gave the player and multiply by 1.2 for QB, 1.1 for pass rushers, LT, CB, 1.0 for WR, OGs, run plugs, ILBs and FS, .9 for RB, TE, OC, SS.

You shouldn't be grading a TE as a top 10 player in a draft. 

This is something I've thought about trying to construct, hopefully I'll have something I'm comfortable with by draft time.

ALSO: FWIW, I think the multiplier spread would be pretty large in comparison to the example here.

Edited by rcon14

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8 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'll reword this hopefully this one makes you sense.  You have two equally talented players, one is a DT and one is a TE.  Which impacts the game more?  The DL is going to make a bigger impact on the game, because he's closer to the ball.  Your TE is only as productive as the guy getting him the ball.  Same logic applies to WRs.  If you've got Blaine Gabbert as your starting QB, your TE isn't going to be productive.  If you've got Blaine Gabbert, how exactly does that affect your DT?  It doesn't.  At the end of the day, the "worst" impact that a DL is going to have by his teammates is that they're going to play away from your stud DL, which is usually going away from what the offense is trying to do.  That's an impact that your DL is making.

No.  You're looking at this completely the wrong way.  Teams usually don't take TEs early.  And when they do, they're usually worse off because of it.  How much worse were the Lions off with Ndamukong Suh?  How much worse off are the Cardinals with Patrick Peterson at CB?  How much worse are the Browns with Myles Garrett at DE?  That's the argument I'm making.  When teams have taken a TE early, they'd have been better off taking someone else.  Add on the fact that TEs rarely get drafted high, and when they are it usually doesn't work out well for them.  I'm not sure what's so crazy about this concept.

It's becoming increasingly clear that you and I are on different places with regards to our Hock evaluation.  You think he's another Rob Gronkowski, and probably pretty soon.  I think he can be good, but he's not going to break a dozen years of history and become a Day 1 producer at TE.  So if he's not producing Day 1 at a high level, he needs to be a game changer at TE.  I don't think he's a game changing prospect.

First, before you put words in my mouth, stop, and then don't.  

You mentioned the 2010 draft.  Let's look a little closer. 

How many of those busts were taken there because of "positional value" bull****?  If 32 teams could go back and re-draft the 2010 draft, where would Gronk go?  Where would Tyson Alualu be selected?  Anthony Davis? There is a hell of a lot of "premium positions" that didn't turn into jack **** at the NFL level.  

1 1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford  QB Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh  DT Nebraska Big 12  
  1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy  DT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams  OT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry  S Tennessee SEC  
  1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung  OT Oklahoma State Big 12  
  1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden  CB Florida SEC  
  1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain  LB Alabama SEC  
  1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller  RB Clemson ACC  
  1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu  DT California Pac-10  
  1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis  OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]
  1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews  RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]
  1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham  DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]
  1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas  S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]
  1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul  DE South Florida Big East  
  1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan  DE Georgia Tech ACC  
  1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati  G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]
  1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey  C Florida SEC  
  1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon  LB Missouri Big 12  
  1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson  CB Alabama SEC  
  1 21 Cincinnati Bengals Jermaine Gresham  TE Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 22 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas  WR Georgia Tech ACC from New England [R1 - 6]
  1 23 Green Bay Packers Bryan Bulaga  OT Iowa Big Ten  
  1 24 Dallas Cowboys Dez Bryant  WR Oklahoma State Big 12 from Philadelphia via Denver and New England[R1 - 7]
  1 25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow  QB Florida SEC from Baltimore [R1 - 8]
  1 26 Arizona Cardinals Dan Williams  DT Tennessee SEC  
  1 27 New England Patriots Devin McCourty  CB Rutgers Big East from Dallas[R1 - 9]
  1 28 Miami Dolphins Jared Odrick  DT Penn State Big Ten from San Diego[R1 - 10]
  1 29 New York Jets Kyle Wilson  CB Boise State WAC  
  1 30 Detroit Lions Jahvid Best  RB California Pac-10 from Minnesota [R1 - 11]
  1 31 Indianapolis Colts Jerry Hughes  DE TCU MWC  
  1 32 New Orleans Saints Patrick Robinson  CB Florida State ACC  
  2 33 St. Louis Rams Rodger Saffold  OT Indiana Big Ten  
  2 34 Minnesota Vikings Chris Cook  CB Virginia ACC from Detroit[R2 - 1]
  2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brian Price  DT UCLA Pac-10  
  2 36 Kansas City Chiefs Dexter McCluster  RB Ole Miss SEC  
  2 37 Philadelphia Eagles Nate Allen  S South Florida Big East from Washington [R2 - 2]
  2 38 Cleveland Browns T. J. Ward  S Oregon Pac-10  
  2 39 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arrelious Benn  WR Illinois Big Ten from Oakland [R2 - 3]
  2 40 Miami Dolphins Koa Misi  DE Utah MWC from Seattle via San Diego[R2 - 4]
  2 41 Buffalo Bills Torell Troup  DT UCF C-USA  
  2 42 New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski  TE Arizona Pac-10 from Chicago via Tampa Bay and Oakland[R2 - 5]
  2 43 Baltimore Ravens Sergio Kindle  DE Texas Big 12 from Miami via Denver[R2 - 6]
  2 44 Oakland Raiders Lamarr Houston  DE Texas Big 12 from Jacksonville via New England[R2 - 7]
  2 45 Denver Broncos Zane Beadles  OT Utah MWC  
  2 46 New York Giants Linval Joseph  DT East Carolina C-USA  
  2 47 Arizona Cardinals Daryl Washington  LB TCU MWC

 

I'll add this.  If you want to bump a player up or down a board based off of ANYTHING, it should be the scheme that he's best suited for and not his position.  The Packers won't be drafting J. Taylor if they are serious about running a zone scheme.  He could be a really nice player, but if he doesn't fit the scheme he won't be drafted.  Hock just so happens to fit the LaFleur offensive system like a glove.  

Oops.  One edit.  I'd be careful with putting Jonah Williams in your top 10.  Quite a few scouts are pegging him as a guard, and that, according to you, should drop him waaay down that list of yours.  

Edited by Cheech

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1 hour ago, Cheech said:

How many of those busts were taken there because of "positional value" bull****?  If 32 teams could go back and re-draft the 2010 draft, where would Gronk go?  Where would Tyson Alualu be selected?  Anthony Davis? There is a hell of a lot of "premium positions" that didn't turn into jack **** at the NFL level.  

You don't draft based on the assumption that one player will be a bust, and the other is going to be a hit.  You don't make the assumption that Anthony Davis was going to bust, and  Gronk was going to hit.  That defeats the whole point of this.  You operate under the assumption that both are hits.  If Anthony Davis had turned out to what we thought he was going to be, would we be having this discussion?  No.  We'd be talking about how the 49ers made the right decision.  But instead, you're trying to use the logic that the TE that you're proposing the Packers draft at 12 is a near guaranteed hit, and the guy whose playing a premium position won't.  I don't understand how you can come to the conclusion that Hock will be BPA at 12.  Maybe you could make the argument at 30, but certainly not at 12.

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3 hours ago, Cheech said:

First, before you put words in my mouth, stop, and then don't.  

You mentioned the 2010 draft.  Let's look a little closer. 

How many of those busts were taken there because of "positional value" bull****?  If 32 teams could go back and re-draft the 2010 draft, where would Gronk go?  Where would Tyson Alualu be selected?  Anthony Davis? There is a hell of a lot of "premium positions" that didn't turn into jack **** at the NFL level.  

1 1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford  QB Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh  DT Nebraska Big 12  
  1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy  DT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams  OT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry  S Tennessee SEC  
  1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung  OT Oklahoma State Big 12  
  1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden  CB Florida SEC  
  1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain  LB Alabama SEC  
  1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller  RB Clemson ACC  
  1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu  DT California Pac-10  
  1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis  OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]
  1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews  RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]
  1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham  DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]
  1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas  S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]
  1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul  DE South Florida Big East  
  1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan  DE Georgia Tech ACC  
  1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati  G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]
  1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey  C Florida SEC  
  1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon  LB Missouri Big 12  
  1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson  CB Alabama SEC  
  1 21 Cincinnati Bengals Jermaine Gresham  TE Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 22 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas  WR Georgia Tech ACC from New England [R1 - 6]
  1 23 Green Bay Packers Bryan Bulaga  OT Iowa Big Ten  
  1 24 Dallas Cowboys Dez Bryant  WR Oklahoma State Big 12 from Philadelphia via Denver and New England[R1 - 7]
  1 25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow  QB Florida SEC from Baltimore [R1 - 8]
  1 26 Arizona Cardinals Dan Williams  DT Tennessee SEC  
  1 27 New England Patriots Devin McCourty  CB Rutgers Big East from Dallas[R1 - 9]
  1 28 Miami Dolphins Jared Odrick  DT Penn State Big Ten from San Diego[R1 - 10]
  1 29 New York Jets Kyle Wilson  CB Boise State WAC  
  1 30 Detroit Lions Jahvid Best  RB California Pac-10 from Minnesota [R1 - 11]
  1 31 Indianapolis Colts Jerry Hughes  DE TCU MWC  
  1 32 New Orleans Saints Patrick Robinson  CB Florida State ACC  
  2 33 St. Louis Rams Rodger Saffold  OT Indiana Big Ten  
  2 34 Minnesota Vikings Chris Cook  CB Virginia ACC from Detroit[R2 - 1]
  2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brian Price  DT UCLA Pac-10  
  2 36 Kansas City Chiefs Dexter McCluster  RB Ole Miss SEC  
  2 37 Philadelphia Eagles Nate Allen  S South Florida Big East from Washington [R2 - 2]
  2 38 Cleveland Browns T. J. Ward  S Oregon Pac-10  
  2 39 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arrelious Benn  WR Illinois Big Ten from Oakland [R2 - 3]
  2 40 Miami Dolphins Koa Misi  DE Utah MWC from Seattle via San Diego[R2 - 4]
  2 41 Buffalo Bills Torell Troup  DT UCF C-USA  
  2 42 New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski  TE Arizona Pac-10 from Chicago via Tampa Bay and Oakland[R2 - 5]
  2 43 Baltimore Ravens Sergio Kindle  DE Texas Big 12 from Miami via Denver[R2 - 6]
  2 44 Oakland Raiders Lamarr Houston  DE Texas Big 12 from Jacksonville via New England[R2 - 7]
  2 45 Denver Broncos Zane Beadles  OT Utah MWC  
  2 46 New York Giants Linval Joseph  DT East Carolina C-USA  
  2 47 Arizona Cardinals Daryl Washington  LB TCU MWC

 

I'll add this.  If you want to bump a player up or down a board based off of ANYTHING, it should be the scheme that he's best suited for and not his position.  The Packers won't be drafting J. Taylor if they are serious about running a zone scheme.  He could be a really nice player, but if he doesn't fit the scheme he won't be drafted.  Hock just so happens to fit the LaFleur offensive system like a glove.  

Oops.  One edit.  I'd be careful with putting Jonah Williams in your top 10.  Quite a few scouts are pegging him as a guard, and that, according to you, should drop him waaay down that list of yours.  

Yes, if you think Jonah Williams is only a guard, that should push him down your board. I don't understand how any of this is controversial. If you can't understand positional value, I don't think you can really have conversations about team building.

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3 hours ago, Cheech said:

First, before you put words in my mouth, stop, and then don't.  

You mentioned the 2010 draft.  Let's look a little closer. 

How many of those busts were taken there because of "positional value" bull****?  If 32 teams could go back and re-draft the 2010 draft, where would Gronk go?  Where would Tyson Alualu be selected?  Anthony Davis? There is a hell of a lot of "premium positions" that didn't turn into jack **** at the NFL level.  

1 1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford  QB Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh  DT Nebraska Big 12  
  1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy  DT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams  OT Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry  S Tennessee SEC  
  1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung  OT Oklahoma State Big 12  
  1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden  CB Florida SEC  
  1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain  LB Alabama SEC  
  1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller  RB Clemson ACC  
  1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu  DT California Pac-10  
  1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis  OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]
  1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews  RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]
  1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham  DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]
  1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas  S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]
  1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul  DE South Florida Big East  
  1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan  DE Georgia Tech ACC  
  1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati  G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]
  1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey  C Florida SEC  
  1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon  LB Missouri Big 12  
  1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson  CB Alabama SEC  
  1 21 Cincinnati Bengals Jermaine Gresham  TE Oklahoma Big 12  
  1 22 Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas  WR Georgia Tech ACC from New England [R1 - 6]
  1 23 Green Bay Packers Bryan Bulaga  OT Iowa Big Ten  
  1 24 Dallas Cowboys Dez Bryant  WR Oklahoma State Big 12 from Philadelphia via Denver and New England[R1 - 7]
  1 25 Denver Broncos Tim Tebow  QB Florida SEC from Baltimore [R1 - 8]
  1 26 Arizona Cardinals Dan Williams  DT Tennessee SEC  
  1 27 New England Patriots Devin McCourty  CB Rutgers Big East from Dallas[R1 - 9]
  1 28 Miami Dolphins Jared Odrick  DT Penn State Big Ten from San Diego[R1 - 10]
  1 29 New York Jets Kyle Wilson  CB Boise State WAC  
  1 30 Detroit Lions Jahvid Best  RB California Pac-10 from Minnesota [R1 - 11]
  1 31 Indianapolis Colts Jerry Hughes  DE TCU MWC  
  1 32 New Orleans Saints Patrick Robinson  CB Florida State ACC  
  2 33 St. Louis Rams Rodger Saffold  OT Indiana Big Ten  
  2 34 Minnesota Vikings Chris Cook  CB Virginia ACC from Detroit[R2 - 1]
  2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brian Price  DT UCLA Pac-10  
  2 36 Kansas City Chiefs Dexter McCluster  RB Ole Miss SEC  
  2 37 Philadelphia Eagles Nate Allen  S South Florida Big East from Washington [R2 - 2]
  2 38 Cleveland Browns T. J. Ward  S Oregon Pac-10  
  2 39 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arrelious Benn  WR Illinois Big Ten from Oakland [R2 - 3]
  2 40 Miami Dolphins Koa Misi  DE Utah MWC from Seattle via San Diego[R2 - 4]
  2 41 Buffalo Bills Torell Troup  DT UCF C-USA  
  2 42 New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski  TE Arizona Pac-10 from Chicago via Tampa Bay and Oakland[R2 - 5]
  2 43 Baltimore Ravens Sergio Kindle  DE Texas Big 12 from Miami via Denver[R2 - 6]
  2 44 Oakland Raiders Lamarr Houston  DE Texas Big 12 from Jacksonville via New England[R2 - 7]
  2 45 Denver Broncos Zane Beadles  OT Utah MWC  
  2 46 New York Giants Linval Joseph  DT East Carolina C-USA  
  2 47 Arizona Cardinals Daryl Washington  LB TCU MWC

 

I'll add this.  If you want to bump a player up or down a board based off of ANYTHING, it should be the scheme that he's best suited for and not his position.  The Packers won't be drafting J. Taylor if they are serious about running a zone scheme.  He could be a really nice player, but if he doesn't fit the scheme he won't be drafted.  Hock just so happens to fit the LaFleur offensive system like a glove.  

Oops.  One edit.  I'd be careful with putting Jonah Williams in your top 10.  Quite a few scouts are pegging him as a guard, and that, according to you, should drop him waaay down that list of yours.  

This draft is *** for trying to prove your point. Not sure why you're melting down over this whole thing either. lol

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1 hour ago, rcon14 said:

Yes, if you think Jonah Williams is only a guard, that should push him down your board. I don't understand how any of this is controversial. If you can't understand positional value, I don't think you can really have conversations about team building.

Right.  So instead of taking good players we end up with guys like Ahmad Carroll, Justin Harrell, Derrick Sherrod, and Datone Jones.  All positions of value that turned out really well, huh?  Screw that.  How many dumb *** decisions have been made by teams trading multiple picks to move up in a draft only to bust on a Pos QB?  I'll never forget laughing in the face of one of my best friends (Vikings fan) when they drafted Christian Ponder.  

If Jeffrey Simmons and TJ Hock are both there at 12, I'm taking Simmons, because he's the better player of the two.  But hell if I'm passing on Hock for a lesser player, such as a pass rusher who can't defend the run, just because he plays at a "position of value."  

And where the hell are people getting this notion that TE isn't a position of value in the first ******* place?  The only time the Packers offense has been worth a **** has been when we have a Jared Cook or Finley on the field.  If you can get George Kittle at 12, in an offense that's going to look a hell of a lot like Kyle Shannahan's - and he's the best player on the board, I'm running that card to the podium.  

 

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

You don't draft based on the assumption that one player will be a bust, and the other is going to be a hit.  You don't make the assumption that Anthony Davis was going to bust, and  Gronk was going to hit.  That defeats the whole point of this.  You operate under the assumption that both are hits.  If Anthony Davis had turned out to what we thought he was going to be, would we be having this discussion?  No.  We'd be talking about how the 49ers made the right decision.  But instead, you're trying to use the logic that the TE that you're proposing the Packers draft at 12 is a near guaranteed hit, and the guy whose playing a premium position won't.  I don't understand how you can come to the conclusion that Hock will be BPA at 12.  Maybe you could make the argument at 30, but certainly not at 12.

You are proposing the idea of dropping a player based off of his position and not the level of talent that he possesses.  That's. How. Busts. Happen. Every. Year.  

You've illustrated this point VERY well by insinuating that QB desperate teams are going to reach on players that have no business being drafted in the top 10, because they play a position of value, which in turn will cause top 10 players to drop to us at 12.  (See, this is key here.  You understand the concept but you've been unable to apply it past the QB position.  The exact same logic applies to edge, CB, DT and OT.  GM's reach for lesser players because of their position and inevitably pass on better players who I'm sure they later wish they would have drafted.)

 

In regards to Hock, you've clearly not read enough on the guy.  Because what you've described is actually what talent evaluators are saying about him, not just me.  

Finally, you actually quoted me saying "If Hock is the best player available at 12, you take him."  You argued that he wouldn't be. 

I even clarified later: "IF Hock is BPA, you take him.  I don't know who is going to be available at 12.  I never even came close to insinuating that anyone else there would be a bust."  

So how is it now that I came to the conclusion that he's going to be the BPA at 12?  You really need to read what I say, and not what you think I said.  

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2 hours ago, Cheech said:

You are proposing the idea of dropping a player based off of his position and not the level of talent that he possesses.  That's. How. Busts. Happen. Every. Year.  

You've illustrated this point VERY well by insinuating that QB desperate teams are going to reach on players that have no business being drafted in the top 10, because they play a position of value, which in turn will cause top 10 players to drop to us at 12.  (See, this is key here.  You understand the concept but you've been unable to apply it past the QB position.  The exact same logic applies to edge, CB, DT and OT.  GM's reach for lesser players because of their position and inevitably pass on better players who I'm sure they later wish they would have drafted.)

 

In regards to Hock, you've clearly not read enough on the guy.  Because what you've described is actually what talent evaluators are saying about him, not just me.  

Finally, you actually quoted me saying "If Hock is the best player available at 12, you take him."  You argued that he wouldn't be. 

I even clarified later: "IF Hock is BPA, you take him.  I don't know who is going to be available at 12.  I never even came close to insinuating that anyone else there would be a bust."  

So how is it now that I came to the conclusion that he's going to be the BPA at 12?  You really need to read what I say, and not what you think I said.  

I tend to agree with  your argument. This board in particular has some people who believe you should only take  edge, qb, ots, and corners in round 1, even though at some point you are inevitably running into highly flawed prospects who are getting Day 2/3 grades. Using 2018 as an example there were many mocks with D Armstrong and Arden Key going round 1 (Landry going top 5) just because they played pass rusher. Taking them that early now sounds crazy. Just taking a player because they play a value spot is stupid. They still have to grade out.

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2 hours ago, cannondale said:

Football games are won and lost at the TE position. Experts have been saying this since forever

definitely true in the 2014-15 nfc championship game

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4 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I tend to agree with  your argument. This board in particular has some people who believe you should only take  edge, qb, ots, and corners in round 1, even though at some point you are inevitably running into highly flawed prospects who are getting Day 2/3 grades. Using 2018 as an example there were many mocks with D Armstrong and Arden Key going round 1 (Landry going top 5) just because they played pass rusher. Taking them that early now sounds crazy. Just taking a player because they play a value spot is stupid. They still have to grade out.

You forgot DTs in your list, they are considered a premium position as well.

It is right (as you say) that at some point inevitably the premium positions (if they keep getting taken), will stack up less and less well  with other positions. I rather doubt anyone argues against that, though for different folks, the point where you choose a non-premium position over a premium one, varies. However that is just a part of the draft equation.

For example, you need to look and see where the talent level dropoffs are AT EACH POSTION GROUP. Certain groups, the ones that require difficult-to-find traits, are less deep because of the rare skills needed, and as a consequence the better guys go fast.......and tend to get paid more to be retained, on second and third contracts. You want a pass rusher, good luck throwing the dice on one after round 2, and the best of them (Bosa/J.Allen/Ferrell/Sweat/Polite and probably Burns) are all gone in round one (and you are unlikely to get a better year for them, in quite a while). with OTs, again it's the first two rounds for a good one. With the better DTs (in a terrific year for them) you need to be in the first two rounds at least, most are gone in round one.

THIS is why you get these positions early, if you want a decent chance to acquire starter-quality guys.  Now this year the Packers DO have an urgent need for an edge guy, since we might well lose both starting OLBs in Perry and Matthews, but even if we only lose one, all those snaps needs to be taken by someone in 2019, and while Fackrell has become a fine backup, you don't really want him as a starter..........hence the talk of an edge guy at #12. It is very likely that four of the guys I mentioned above are gone at #12 (that's how fast the good ones go), but even then I imagine two of Sweat/Polite/Burns are there, so the value is still solid 

At #30 with the often-injured Bulaga the only viable RT on the roster (and with him unlikely to return after his contract expires after 2019), there is a big need there as well.  You have already lost several good OTs, by #30, but several solid prospects should still remain before you take the big drop to the next tier. If you see any of Cody Ford, Andre Dillard, Jawaan Taylor and maybe Greg Little available, you need to think hard about this position, because the value for OTs will not continue much longer. you might get Cajuste or Risner or D.Edwards at #44, but by #75 it's unlikely any remain, and if they are, then they will almost certainly have serious flaws. Despite there being no guarantees a draft pick at OT could play guard for one year (before moving to RT in 2020), it IS a solid plan to go into 2019 with, and allows the move to RT earlier, if Bulaga goes down.

As you can see, this year there are almost certain to be good edge prospects at #12 and good OTs at #30, that can be acquired without any big-reach pick. To me it is unlikely all the viable prospects are gone at these picks..........if they are, then by all means trade your pick, or pick a different position group, but I doubt all those I named for #12 and #30 are gone. I'm not suggesting the Packers reach deep down their board for an early-pick  premium position, I'm saying that in this draft the value at premium positions (imo) seems to be there, pass rush at #12 and OT at #30. My scenario isn't the only possible one, and the Packers choices depend on how their board is set and how the draft unfolds. If they went DT at #12, I'd think of it as just another way to generate pass rush, and the value there is probably the best of all position groups.

My current favourite scenario happens to be DT J.Simmons (#12), OT A.Dillard (#30), DL/Edge C.Omenihu (#44), but i'm no scout. Do I like the TEs available this year, yes. Do the Packers need a safety, yes. Would they be a better team with Devin White taken at ILB at #12, yes. BUT (and it's a big butt :D) each pick there means one less pick for key positions of need, so you must do the prioritisation dance that gives you new blood where you need it, of a quality that impacts the team..........it is inevitable that some positions groups will be addressed later in the draft, the Packers choice is which ones get the short stick and which ones get the sexy higher picks. I'd be happier chasing for a safety, TE, OG and RB in rounds 3/4/5 than I would be looking to get a starter-level guy at Edge or OT that late.......and if we get an Edge and OT in round one, we'd still have a 2nd round pick for one of those positions - I'd go with Safety first (heh), TE second, Guard third and RB 4th, but of course it all depends on who is available when they pick.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive

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58 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

You forgot DTs in your list, they are considered a premium position as well.

It is right (as you say) that at some point inevitably the premium positions (if they keep getting taken), will stack up less and less well  with other positions. I rather doubt anyone argues against that, though for different folks, the point where you choose a non-premium position over a premium one, varies. However that is just a part of the draft equation.

For example, you need to look and see where the talent level dropoffs are AT EACH POSTION GROUP. Certain groups, the ones that require difficult-to-find traits, are less deep because of the rare skills needed, and as a consequence the better guys go fast.......and tend to get paid more to be retained, on second and third contracts. You want a pass rusher, good luck throwing the dice on one after round 2, and the best of them (Bosa/J.Allen/Ferrell/Sweat/Polite and probably Burns) are all gone in round one (and you are unlikely to get a better year for them, in quite a while). with OTs, again it's the first two rounds for a good one. With the better DTs (in a terrific year for them) you need to be in the first two rounds at least, most are gone in round one.

THIS is why you get these positions early, if you want a decent chance to acquire starter-quality guys.  Now this year the Packers DO have an urgent need for an edge guy, since we might well lose both starting OLBs in Perry and Matthews, but even if we only lose one, all those snaps needs to be taken by someone in 2019, and while Fackrell has become a fine backup, you don't really want him as a starter..........hence the talk of an edge guy at #12. It is very likely that four of the guys I mentioned above are gone at #12 (that's how fast the good ones go), but even then I imagine two of Sweat/Polite/Burns are there, so the value is still solid 

At #30 with the often-injured Bulaga the only viable RT on the roster (and with him unlikely to return after his contract expires after 2019), there is a big need there as well.  You have already lost several good OTs, by #30, but several solid prospects should still remain before you take the big drop to the next tier. If you see any of Cody Ford, Andre Dillard, Jawaan Taylor and maybe Greg Little available, you need to think hard about this position, because the value for OTs will not continue much longer. you might get Cajuste or Risner or D.Edwards at #44, but by #75 it's unlikely any remain, and if they are, then they will almost certainly have serious flaws. Despite there being no guarantees a draft pick at OT could play guard for one year (before moving to RT in 2020), it IS a solid plan to go into 2019 with, and allows the move to RT earlier, if Bulaga goes down.

As you can see, this year there are almost certain to be good edge prospects at #12 and good OTs at #30, that can be acquired without any big-reach pick. To me it is unlikely all the viable prospects are gone at these picks..........if they are, then by all means trade your pick, or pick a different position group, but I doubt all those I named for #12 and #30 are gone. I'm not suggesting the Packers reach deep down their board for an early-pick  premium position, I'm saying that in this draft the value at premium positions (imo) seems to be there, pass rush at #12 and OT at #30. My scenario isn't the only possible one, and the Packers choices depend on how their board is set and how the draft unfolds. If they went DT at #12, I'd think of it as just another way to generate pass rush, and the value there is probably the best of all position groups.

My current favourite scenario happens to be DT J.Simmons (#12), OT A.Dillard (#30), DL/Edge C.Omenihu (#44), but i'm no scout. Do I like the TEs available this year, yes. Do the Packers need a safety, yes. Would they be a better team with Devin White taken at ILB at #12, yes. BUT (and it's a big butt :D) each pick there means one less pick for key positions of need, so you must do the prioritisation dance that gives you new blood where you need it, of a quality that impacts the team..........it is inevitable that some positions groups will be addressed later in the draft, the Packers choice is which ones get the short stick and which ones get the sexy higher picks. I'd be happier chasing for a safety, TE, OG and RB in rounds 3/4/5 than I would be looking to get a starter-level guy at Edge or OT that late.......and if we get an Edge and OT in round one, we'd still have a 2nd round pick for one of those positions - I'd go with Safety first (heh), TE second, Guard third and RB 4th, but of course it all depends on who is available when they pick.

I agree with what you’re saying. A few things though;

1. There are positional value purests on this board. The mention of a TE, wr, or guard ticks them off

2. Especially at pick 30, I think the positional value arguement kind of falls apart (I’m all for edge, j will, or stud DL at 12). There are typically truly like 15-25 real first round talents in the draft. You aren’t getting a real blue chip player at a value position at 30. Using OT since you mentioned a tackle at 30. Haven’t you noticed that after Williams, most people are grading that second teir of ots (Dillard, Taylor, Edwards, little, mcgary)  their OTs as prospects 30-80 and the lists are kind of interchangeable? That is because these aren’t real first round tackles and are more development tools projects. You can take swings on redshirt development players rounds 4-7. Pick 30 is a little rich. Why not get a guy who doesn’t need to develop as much and is a stud at the position?

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21 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

I don't care how good the prospect is, unless you've just won a Super Bowl and you somehow have the 12th overall pick, I'm not taking a WR, TE or IOL in the top 15.  

Ya, no way I want anything to do with Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Odell Beckham, or Mike Evans, etc at 15. Hard Pass...I'm also eternally grateful the Packers took a better position DT (Vonnie Holiday) over Moss (WR).

Look, there are numerous examples of WRs busting in the top 15, but you can't say there haven't been WRs taken there that have been well worth it. In some cases, franchise-changing picks. I don't see a WR like that this year so it's not really relevant to the 2019 draft but the point remains.

Also, what difference does it make if you've just won the superbowl? Should have no bearing on your draft strategy.

Edited by Arthur Penske

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