2019 MLB Draft

[THE DUKE]

19 minutes ago, devils1854 said:

I dont see Witt in the top 3. The top two are set, and the White Sox do not take high school players. Like at all. 

2018-Madrigal, 2017-Burger, 2016-Collins and Burdi, 2015-Fullmer, 2014-Rodon, 2013-Anderson.

Hahn has been the GM since 2013. Their last HS player was in 2012 under Williams. 

If i'm the Royals, I take Witt over Vaughn

[devils1854]

10 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

If i'm the Royals, I take Witt over Vaughn

Oh I do too. He's my #2 guy. I like Vaughn but he has DH written all over him, unless someone throws him in left and hopes he is somewhere close to average there because he isnt that overly athletic and he is small at 6'.

Honestly, Hunter Bishop is creeping up my list. There is still time, but I could see him being my #3 overall player.

1. Rutschmann
2. Witt Jr
3. Vaughn, Greene, Bishop
4. Lodolo, Stott, Leiter
5. Bleday, Jung, Malone, Misner, Abrams
6. Wilson, Langeliers, Barco, Ealy, Nunez
7. Spencer Jones, Schunk

Thats probably something like my top 20 right now and I need to see more of Carroll, Manoah, and Allan before ranking.

[devils1854]

Cole Wilcox is absolutely dealing for Georgia. Looks like he is starting to harness his control. Fastball is still sitting at 96-96 in a 2-4 inning setting. Hitting 100 at times, and his slider is unhittable to SEC hitters. Having his starting catcher back seems to have helped a lot. 3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K so far tonight in relief. He isnt going to crack the starting rotation unless there is an injury, or until the SEC/NCAA Tournament. Georgia's #1 is odds on favorite for #1 in 2020, #2 is a top 5 rounder this year, #3 is the #59 prospect for 2020 according to Fangraphs, and the #4 is a likely 5-6 round guy this year.

[devils1854]

Fangraphs did a top 10 mock

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Rutschman still has a good lead here. It sounds like he had a shoulder injury in high school from football contact, but he hasn’t missed any time in college and clubs have mostly decided that even a worst case scenario for this issue still makes him the best prospect in the draft. There’s chatter Baltimore has made calls to explore backup options/bulk approach like new GM Mike Elias did while running the draft in Houston, but that’s seen as a long shot at this point. It’s also worth noting Baltimore’s history of whacking players’ medicals, but it’s unclear if the regime change alters that propensity.

 

2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Coleyville Heritage HS (TX)
Two weeks ago, I mentioned that the early buzz was that Andrew Vaughn had the lead for this pick. Late last spring, GM Dayton Moore saw amateur games for the first time in awhile and Kansas City’s first 11 selections were college picks. This came on the heels of four of their previous six first round picks coming from the prep ranks, with their draft philosophy leaning that way as a whole.

It seemed like a philosophical shift at the beginning of a rebuild, but I’ve talked to about four times as many sources on this topic in the last two weeks as I did before, and almost everyone since then is insistent that Witt is the pick here. Vaughn and possibly Hunter Bishop have been mentioned as backup plans, but the top three picks are thought to be pretty locked in at this juncture, with a couple scouting directors guessing it’s about 90% certain to go the way I’ve outlined here.

3. White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
With a recent run in the past three drafts of safer-skewing, college hitters in Chicago’s top three round picks (Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Zack Collins, Alex Call), and a rebuild reaching the critical stages, a quick-to-the-majors prospect makes the most sense here. With Jose Abreu on the downside of his career, Vaughn even fills a need: exactly what the White Sox are looking for here. Nick Lodolo sounds like the most likely backup option if Vaughn and Rutschman go first and second. GM Rick Hahn has seen C.J. Abrams this spring and some teams think the Sox would take Witt if he slides, but none of those alternate scenarios seem likely, with almost everyone in the industry saying Chicago wants a collegiate player here and covet Vaughn.

4. Marlins – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
This is where things start to get a little tricky. After NHSI, where new scouting director D.J. Svihlik and VP Gary Denbo were locked in on Abrams and seemingly uninterested in Riley Greene on an adjacent field, industry rumors intensified that Abrams was the preference. Earlier in the spring, most believed there was a preference for a college player here, with Lodolo the most common connection. Svihlik used to be on staff at Vanderbilt and some think J.J. Bleday also makes sense here. I’ll go with Abrams for now, but it’s pretty close between these three options and I get the impression this decision is far from made, anyway. Denbo has also seen Witt a few times.

 

5. Tigers – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
The Tigers have been all over Greene all spring, and one of their scouts has a child that goes to Greene’s high school. He’s struggled a bit lately (his swing was too big when I saw him a few weeks ago and he performed just okay at NHSI) but was a strong performer all summer, so most don’t consider it a long-term concern. There isn’t much consensus on whom else Detroit would consider here as another option, though Witt has been mentioned in the event he slides. Power arms and SEC performers are historically the Tigers’ type, so Bleday and his nation-leading 20 homers also makes some sense, but Greene appears to be their preference and he’s almost certain to be available.

6. Padres – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
The Padres has been heavy on Bleday and Lodolo, appearing to lean to college both because that’s what’s here and because it fits their new competitive window. Bishop just got a long look from the decision makers and appears also to be entering their mix, but is believed to be more of a third option at this point. Given GM A.J. Preller’s past decisions, this would also appear to be a spot where a sliding Witt or Abrams could get snapped up. Kentucky lefty Zack Thompson also seems to be in the mix.

7. Reds – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
It sounds like the Reds are on Greene, Abrams, and Lodolo, who are all gone in this scenario. Bleday (video) is the consensus best guy on the board and sources have indicated the preference here is college, with last year’s pick of Jonathan India serving as a template for new scouting director Brad Meador. Cincy still needs pitching and seems the most aggressive on junior college righty Jackson Rutledge, though he fits more as an overslot second pick than underslot first pick.

8. Rangers – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
Texas is the toughest club to peg in this mock. It sounds like they aren’t excited about what they think will be available to them, and clubs picking around here also don’t have much feel for where Texas leans. This appears to be the floor for Abrams and Witt if they slide, but they’re unlikely to get here. Manoah and Bishop both make sense, but the most common rumor is that the Rangers go below slot for a pitcher to set up an overslot choice with their second pick. Manoah is perceived to be an easier sign than some other options with a cleaner medical than late-rising Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson.

9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
This pick is compensation for not signing Carter Stewart last year, and he projects to go much later this year, so the Braves appear to have come out ahead in the exchange. This pick also isn’t protected if Atlanta doesn’t sign whoever they take, so a tough sign likely isn’t an option. It appears Atlanta would take Abrams or Witt if they get here, and they’ve been scouting Lodolo, Bleday, and Bishop as primary options, with a good chance one of them gets to this pick. It’s unclear if the other prospects on the board at this point excite them, in the event that Texas takes Bishop and all the players Atlanta has been tied to are off the board.

10. Giants – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
This weekend, the Giants sent in their heavy hitters to see Missouri RF Kameron Misner at Georgia (his swing still needs some work). He may have the most upside on the board, but he hasn’t been good in SEC play and lacks a summer track record to fall back on. Stott could be another Brandon Crawford, though it’s unclear how the new regime will make high-profile decisions like these. The rumor is that this is another pick that will go college, and likely a college hitter, with new Giants GM Farhan Zaidi having prized versatility and defensive value when building the Dodgers.

Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson has been closing hard lately (while Lodolo has just been okay the last few weeks), so he could jump into the top 10, but some clubs are concerned about his elbow long-term, so that keeps him just out of this projection. Washington prep CF Corbin Carroll is the other prospect who has been mentioned at more than a few top 10 slots, but more as another player in the mix than a primary target. With picks 6-10 leaning college, and three prep bats in the top five, he slides just out of this projection, but could easily jump in future versions. The next two college bats (North Carolina 1B Michael Busch (vide0) and Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung) would also figure to go quickly if we had continued this exercise, but unfortunately, the information gets much spottier at this juncture of the draft.

[THE DUKE]

I'd be happy with Bleday for the Reds at 7.  After 4 HR last weekend, he now leads the NCAA in homers.

[hrubes20]

14 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

I'd be happy with Bleday for the Reds at 7.  After 4 HR last weekend, he now leads the NCAA in homers.

I think he goes at #3 to the White Sox, with the obvious #1 and Vaughn going to KC.  They love them some college players.

[THE DUKE]

Very possible.  College guys always seem to rise in the lead up to the draft.  Much safer bets on the whole.  A month ago it was no college pitchers in the top 10-12, now it's 2 with Lodolo and Manoah probably going top 10.  A month from now I bet another 1-2 college pitchers creep into the top 15 and by draft day watch Lodolo and Manoah both go top 7 with at least one of them top 5.

My best case scenario as a Reds fan is if that happens and pushed Witt down to #7.  I'd be ecstatic.  

[Sllim Pickens]

47 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Very possible.  College guys always seem to rise in the lead up to the draft.  Much safer bets on the whole.  A month ago it was no college pitchers in the top 10-12, now it's 2 with Lodolo and Manoah probably going top 10.  A month from now I bet another 1-2 college pitchers creep into the top 15 and by draft day watch Lodolo and Manoah both go top 7 with at least one of them top 5.

My best case scenario as a Reds fan is if that happens and pushed Witt down to #7.  I'd be ecstatic.  

I pray that the Tigers don't let Witt get by #5.  I'd like to think that is the end of his potential slide.

[devils1854]

6 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I pray that the Tigers don't let Witt get by #5.  I'd like to think that is the end of his potential slide.

They are pretty enamored with Greene.

The baseball draft is weird. There are teams that scout a few players and put them on their board, and pass on guys that are thought of as better players just because they havent scouted them as much. See Liberatore last year. He was rumored to go to a few teams, and when they went different directions, he slid for no other reason than other teams didnt expect him to be available, and they probably werent comfortable with picking him because of it.

[devils1854]

7 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Very possible.  College guys always seem to rise in the lead up to the draft.  Much safer bets on the whole.  A month ago it was no college pitchers in the top 10-12, now it's 2 with Lodolo and Manoah probably going top 10.  A month from now I bet another 1-2 college pitchers creep into the top 15 and by draft day watch Lodolo and Manoah both go top 7 with at least one of them top 5.

My best case scenario as a Reds fan is if that happens and pushed Witt down to #7.  I'd be ecstatic.  

Zack Thompson is creeping up like you said, and I honestly dont know why. Ive watched him twice now, and he is polished for a SEC pitcher, but he doesnt have much upside.

[devils1854]

8 hours ago, hrubes20 said:

I think he goes at #3 to the White Sox, with the obvious #1 and Vaughn going to KC.  They love them some college players.

If Im guessing a top 10 right now

1. Orioles-Rutschman........top player
2. Royals-Vaughn...............lines up with their rebuild better than a HS player
3. White Sox-Bedlay...........always go college, and preferably a college hitter
4. Marlins-Lodolo...............a college pitcher is going top 5
5. Tigers-Greene................they love him
6. Padres-Witt Jr................Preller is going BPA
7. Reds-Abrams.................Not a college guy, but has too much value here
8. Rangers-Carroll..............I dont see them going against their MO and taking a college guy
9. Braves-Bishop................Him or Manoah. Underslot to sign and save money for pick #21
10. Giants-Stott....................fits the Bart/Ramos timeline

[THE DUKE]

11 hours ago, devils1854 said:

Zack Thompson is creeping up like you said, and I honestly dont know why. Ive watched him twice now, and he is polished for a SEC pitcher, but he doesnt have much upside.

Because GM's get nervous the closer the draft gets.  HS pitchers, for the most part, are looking at a 4-6 year time frame before they are big league players.  College guys have less upside, but far less risk that you get a kid who washes out by AA.  College pitchers will hit AA the year after they are drafted a good amount of the time.  Look at Robert Stephenson for the Reds. 8 years after being drafted he is just now starting to provide some big league value.  And that's more successfully than most HS 1st rd pitchers.

[Sllim Pickens]

Wrong thread

[THE DUKE]

Nick Lodolo has been average to bad for his last 4 starts now.  1-2 may have been seen as just a blip but a late season collapse could send his draft stock tumbling and cost him millions of dollars.  As of now, Alek Manoah is probably the top college arm for this draft.

[devils1854]

The Manoah vs Lodolo matchup last night was kind of a dud. Manoah got rocked and couldnt find the strike zone. Lodolo got the win, but he was just ok.