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soulman

Why Signing Bryce Callahan Makes Sense

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21 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

I see where you are coming from that he is in a weaker position due to his injury history but it also brings down his value for us too...if Callahan does hit the open market he is not coming back here for a contract full of performance related bonuses...someone will off him straight up money...Callahan needs to decide if he wants to resign here to be used right and be part of a potentially historical defence...if he is all about money he will walk to someone with more cash than sense.

 

Agreed.....IF someone offers him a deal without performance bonuses based on his availability.  But there's also some likelihood they would do that as well or it may be a shorter term "prove yourself" deal which we could also offer but for less money.

Here's how I view it.

Callahan has missed 12 games over the past three seasons.  So his availability has averaged just 75% yet he's been paid in full.  That may have been acceptable playing for around $500k on his rookie UDFA deal or even for $1.9 mil as a RFA.  We've gotten our monies worth from him and more I'd say.

But if he's looking for $7 mil per year with maybe $14 mil gtd. his availability would almost surely be a factor for any team.  He's 27 years old having made just $3.5 mil so far in his career so this is his chance for his long term deal for maybe twice that amount per year and he's a top ranked NB.

If someone offers him $28-$30 mil and $14-$15 mil gtd on a 4 year deal with no provisions for injuries then I guess he'd be foolish not to take that deal from whoever offers it.  If what we offer gives him far less security I don't believe playing in Chicago on that defense will trump the money and he goes.

There's even a chance Callahan won't like any longer term offer and agrees to a one year deal for less hoping to prove himself more durable than he has been so far much like AJ did when he signed with Philly.  So we could throw that idea in the hopper as well.  It's all just educated guessing right now.

I'm a Bears fan looking out for our own interests as I'm sure Pace will be as well.  All we can do is offer what makes the most sense for us and hope it can seal a deal.  And I may be so far off base it won't turn out as I've sketched it out at all.  Massie's lower 2019 cap hit surprised me a bit so far.

 

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42 minutes ago, malagabears said:

I've said I am leaning towards resigning Callahan due to the pass happy NFL. The Bears tend to trot out the nickel package more than 50% of the time.

And I agree.

I should also add that I have no clue as to who we would replace Callahan with who brings a similar skill set to the table.  Pace and his staff may know whose out there who may fit or if there is a draftee who can step in and take over but I don't.  And furthermore experience counts for a lot playing that slot CB spot and not all CBs are physically or mentally suited for it.  It's not the same skill set as playing out on the edge.

McManis can play in the slot and for a few games he did well but I also recall a game against Minny a couple of years ago when he blew is coverage and gave up a game winning TD.  He was also who Philly went after to win the playoff game this year.  So IMHO McManis is a good #2 but shouldn't be our #1 slot CB and I don't think Tolliver is built to play inside period. I'd keep him at CB hoping he can replace Amukamara in another year.

Despite his injuries he's in his prime years physically for another 2-3 years.  He defends slot receivers well, gets a few picks, tackles well, gets home on a few blitzes making him somewhat unpredictable as a pass rusher, and he can back up Cohen as a PR already having scored 1 TD doing it.  So when we pay him we're paying for all of that as well and I don't have a problem rewarding him for his abilities provided we protect ourselves as well.

I'll finish by pointing out that by keeping Massie's deal as cap friendly as it is for 2019 we saved some cap to use in locking up both Callahan and Amos if possible.  There's no doubt in my mind our window to a championship game is open and I would prefer we spend what we have to (within reason) to keep our core guys around especially on defense.  We still have needs for depth so why create more holes if we can avoid doing it.  JMHO

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On 2/4/2019 at 11:18 AM, WindyCity said:

I think what happens is that they keep 1 of Amos or Callahan, both seems like a long shot.

They use the 3rd round pick to replace the other.

Then they draft for future needs at OG, outside CB and OLB.

As it stands this is what I'm thinking as well.

I admit that's it's a tough decision to make if it's one vs the other especially when one has been available far more than the other.

That said I'd still hope the coin comes up Callahan based on cost and the potential difficulty of replacing him.  But we do have some options and I expect Chuck Pagano's input will come into play as well.  Admittedly I'm looking at both players in Vic Fangio's defense and Pagano's slant on both may be a little different.

If we do need to replace one or the other that 3rd round pick may be where we look to do it but no doubt we also need to be looking at continuing to draft NFL capable OL in the middle rounds as well and if we don't pursue Hunt then I think RB will also come  into play around there as well.

For once it's nice to have only two starting positions in question while also knowing we do have some experienced backups all across our line up as well.  This offseason could be where Pace and Laine's cap skills really get tested and also where Pace will need to continue his string of luck with mid round picks and UDFA.  I can't see us being major players in FA this year except to improve back end roster spots wherever he can.

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On 2/4/2019 at 12:18 PM, WindyCity said:

I think what happens is that they keep 1 of Amos or Callahan, both seems like a long shot.

They use the 3rd round pick to replace the other.

Then they draft for future needs at OG, outside CB and OLB.

Pace won't go into a draft having to draft one specific position in 3rd.  

 Not ideal, but he won't force a pick.  He needs depth obviously.  But if he has to start Bush, McMannis or Tolliver or some combination he will.

He will draft by need in later rounds.  But he likes to go for potential not positional need in 1-3 or 1-5 even.  He isn't going for base hits in early rounds.  Not anymore.  Of course he isn't always right or always going to be right.  He would have drafted for need in first two years, but I believe he has evolved and adopted this hard philosophy starting in 2017.  I base this off listening to him talk and watching what he does.  He has basically said as much.  

He has also stated that positions he values highest are QB, CB and pass rusher.  Because of scarcity.

A FA will be signed to fill any glaring needs.  OT was biggest.  Massie filled that.  Whether its one of our guys, a big name or a journeyman remains to be seen.  I don't believe he will target one position in 3rd though.  Obviously sometimes a journeyman doesn't fill a glaring need, but that is the idea.  He wants a free hand in drafts.   

I also don't believe he thinks S is a glaring need.  I think he thinks Bush is adequate not ideal, but adequate to step in and start for Amos.  SCB may very well be a glaring need, assuming Callahan is not resigned, depending on where or how he thinks Tolliver, Prince, Fuller fit together.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Imo.... resign Callahan, and then ALSO get Landon Collins or resign Amos.....

Get the money by cutting Kyle Long June 1st....  according to over the cap: Long pre June 1 is dead money 3,000,000  Cap savings 5,500,000..... Long post june 1 is dead money 1,500,000 cap savings 7,000,000

I mean lets be real here.... Long is available even less than Callahan is, and honestly hasn't been all that great when he has been active. Great team guy, but entirely expendable right now, particularly considering how much $$ he costs.

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18 hours ago, Epyon said:

Imo.... resign Callahan, and then ALSO get Landon Collins or resign Amos.....

Get the money by cutting Kyle Long June 1st....  according to over the cap: Long pre June 1 is dead money 3,000,000  Cap savings 5,500,000..... Long post june 1 is dead money 1,500,000 cap savings 7,000,000

I mean lets be real here.... Long is available even less than Callahan is, and honestly hasn't been all that great when he has been active. Great team guy, but entirely expendable right now, particularly considering how much $$ he costs.

Uh... winner?

Callahan is rated high by PFF but has a limited role, though someone might think he can be a boundary corner and overpay. If not, his value might be closer to the $5mil marker.

I've been too lazy to actually look up post June 1st cuts outside of the Brass Toe. I would love to see this happen, and it would allow us to pursue a safety in FA as well. If Amos is hoping for $8 mil APV, I'd rather give $8.5-10 to the Honey Badger or Collins than that for Amos. He is damn solid but isn't a playmaker like the other two.  I really hope Collins missing time the last two seasons and not getting an INT last year hurts his cost some, or that Mathieu loses value so his price drops some.

 

Look at the potential athleticism and talent if we drop 7:

LB- Smith - Trevathan

CBs - Fuller - Amukamara

NB- Callahan

FS - Jackson

$$ - Matthieu

 

That is hell for a QB, especially with Mack and Hicks rushing them.

 

In the 3rd draft the best OL and plug into RG to compete vs Coward.

Edited by Sugashane

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On 2/4/2019 at 1:33 PM, WindyCity said:

I think Callahan will be easier to re-sign. I expect because of Amos' durability and coming off his best season that he will have a stronger market.

Callahan I think has a chance to come back at a number the Bears like.

Amos is at best the 4th best player in FA at his position though IMO (behind Thomas, Collins and Mathieu) and on par with HaHa and Joyner. To some teams he’s gonna be 6th or lower despite his PFF ranking. He’s comparably slotted against the other UFA safeties this year to a guy like Vaccaro last year. Vaccaro didn’t sign until August 4th, for 1 year and $1.5M. I think it’s just as likely that’s Amos this year as it is that he’s getting a Tony Jefferson type deal.

Callahan on the other hand is unquestionably IMO the top UFA slot corner. He’s getting a sizeable day 1 of FA deal from someone. He’s going to have several suitors. The idea that he’s sticking around on a deal that gives per game bonuses over a true guarantee is pretty far fetched. Let’s not forget that Callahan was good as an outside corner in prior years too. He’s not JUST a slot guy. This year’s FA corner crop isn’t exactly star studded. Here’s the list: 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/cornerback/

Callahan isn’t just the best slot corner there - he may be the best corner available PERIOD in terms of ability. Half the league will enter FA with $40M in cap room or more. I expect Callahan will get an Aaron Colvin level contract, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him get a much bigger one. Could very easily see him getting a deal comparable to Casey Heyward’s extension last year ($11.4M AAV with $20M guaranteed) given the dearth of other top options and the importance of the position. 

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On 2/5/2019 at 12:55 PM, soulman said:

It's not just the PFF rankings that will come into play though.  There's a ton of game film on all of the top Safeties.

These five are all listed as Top 20 UFAs and it might be hard to dispute any of them getting good offers.

1) Earl Thomas (but how will his injury impact him)

2) Landon Collins

3) Adrian Amos

4) Lamarcus Joyner

5) Ha Ha Clinton Dix

I'm not clairvoyant but I can't help but thinking Amos will be in play for a deal pretty close to what Tony Jefferson got which in 2017 guaranteed him $19 mil during it's first two years.  Baltimore put $10 mil of it into his SB but then restructured it twice to lower his 2017 and 2018 cap and in doing so locked themselves in for 2019 as well.  So Jefferson will have averaged $9 mil a year for his first three years.  I see Amos getting a similar offer.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/baltimore-ravens/tony-jefferson-12541/

Yep. I've made the same comparison because I can't see Amos taking a lesser deal than what Jefferson got. Which is still workable for us. 

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On 2/7/2019 at 4:35 PM, Epyon said:

Imo.... resign Callahan, and then ALSO get Landon Collins or resign Amos.....

Get the money by cutting Kyle Long June 1st....  according to over the cap: Long pre June 1 is dead money 3,000,000  Cap savings 5,500,000..... Long post june 1 is dead money 1,500,000 cap savings 7,000,000

I mean lets be real here.... Long is available even less than Callahan is, and honestly hasn't been all that great when he has been active. Great team guy, but entirely expendable right now, particularly considering how much $$ he costs.

 

But then you would have to replace Long so how much of the $5.5 saved would go towards that?

And a post June 1 release simply allows us to split the $3000 in two with $1.5 mil charged to the cap in 2019 and the other $1.5 mil in 2020.

In any event only $4.75 mil of his 2019 salary is guaranteed but that happens on March 15 so if anything changes we can expect it to happen before then I would think.

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2 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Yep. I've made the same comparison because I can't see Amos taking a lesser deal than what Jefferson got. Which is still workable for us. 

 

If structured to reduce his 2019 cap cost it may be possible but maybe the bigger question is with Eddie Jackson due a costly extension in 2020 would Pace spend that kind of money on Amos especially if it means kicking higher cap costs into later years when others are also due extensions?

My gut feeling tells me Amos will out price himself for us.  But then I've been wrong before so we'll see.

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13 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Amos is at best the 4th best player in FA at his position though IMO (behind Thomas, Collins and Mathieu) and on par with HaHa and Joyner. To some teams he’s gonna be 6th or lower despite his PFF ranking. He’s comparably slotted against the other UFA safeties this year to a guy like Vaccaro last year. Vaccaro didn’t sign until August 4th, for 1 year and $1.5M. I think it’s just as likely that’s Amos this year as it is that he’s getting a Tony Jefferson type deal.

Callahan on the other hand is unquestionably IMO the top UFA slot corner. He’s getting a sizeable day 1 of FA deal from someone. He’s going to have several suitors. The idea that he’s sticking around on a deal that gives per game bonuses over a true guarantee is pretty far fetched. Let’s not forget that Callahan was good as an outside corner in prior years too. He’s not JUST a slot guy. This year’s FA corner crop isn’t exactly star studded. Here’s the list: 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/cornerback/

Callahan isn’t just the best slot corner there - he may be the best corner available PERIOD in terms of ability. Half the league will enter FA with $40M in cap room or more. I expect Callahan will get an Aaron Colvin level contract, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him get a much bigger one. Could very easily see him getting a deal comparable to Casey Heyward’s extension last year ($11.4M AAV with $20M guaranteed) given the dearth of other top options and the importance of the position. 

If Pace thought Cooper could be a starting level boundary CB, I'm feeling more and more like someone will be desperate enough or dumb enough to think Callahan can thrive out there too. He is 10 times the player Cooper could ever have hoped to be, so I think there is a serious chance he gets a major overpayment this offseason.

 

To me he is a $7 mil a year CB, as he is more talented than that but is too often injured and too small for many chances to play outside. I think he gets more than that, though I hope he takes a smaller deal with high guarantees here.

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19 hours ago, soulman said:

but maybe the bigger question is with Eddie Jackson due a costly extension in 2020 would Pace spend that kind of money on Amos especially if it means kicking higher cap costs into later years when others are also due extensions?

This is a solid question/thought. Is Pace willing to spend that much on the safety position and more importantly the entire secondary with Fuller on the books as well?

My answer would be yes. Look at the Seahawks LOB for example and what it did for that team. Sherman, Chance and Earl all received extensions despite already having dumped a ton of money into their front 7. And it may be too soon to say this because they have to continue to prove it for more than 1 year, but our front 7 is better than theirs were with most of them already locked in on long term contracts (Mack, Hicks, Goldman, Smith, Bilal, etc).

 

Edited by JustAnotherFan

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9 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

This is a solid question/thought. Is Pace willing to spend that much on the safety position and more importantly the entire secondary with Fuller on the books as well?

My answer would be yes. Look at the Seahawks LOB for example and what it did for that team. Sherman, Chance and Earl all received extensions despite already having dumped a ton of money into their front 7. And it may be too soon to say this because they have to continue to prove it for more than 1 year, but our front 7 is better than theirs were with most of them already locked in on long term contracts (Mack, Hicks, Goldman, Smith, Bilal, etc).

 

The problem with the legion of boom model is that Mack makes more than the entire Seahawks DL,

That is not even factoring in Hicks and Goldman making 22 million. 

The Bears pay 46 million annually to 3 players in the front 7, the Seahawks never did that.

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22 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

This is a solid question/thought. Is Pace willing to spend that much on the safety position and more importantly the entire secondary with Fuller on the books as well?

My answer would be yes. Look at the Seahawks LOB for example and what it did for that team. Sherman, Chance and Earl all received extensions despite already having dumped a ton of money into their front 7. And it may be too soon to say this because they have to continue to prove it for more than 1 year, but our front 7 is better than theirs were with most of them already locked in on long term contracts (Mack, Hicks, Goldman, Smith, Bilal, etc).

 

If he is, and it's one big if, I'd prefer he pursue Landon Collins provided NYG doesn't tag him.

IMHO and only IMHO I would not overpay for Amos vs paying top dollar for a player like Collins.

That said I don't see it happening because I don't see NYG letting him go.  They may throw a non-exclusive tag on him to let the market set his value just as we did with Fuller but I'm 99% sure they'd match whatever offer he got.

Windy also makes a good point.  With who we're paying what to now and with both Floyd and Jackson coming up for extensions we have to avoid becoming so over weighted cap wise on defense that we can't also afford the offensive talent we need and the money to pay Mitch when his time comes.

Right now I have to think Pace looks at offering Amos a cap friendly deal which I believe Amos will eschew in favor or looking for more in FA or Pace will look at another FA like Mathieu hoping to entice him away from Houston.  If both fail it's probably gonna be Bush and a rookie or a lesser vet FA battling for the SS spot in 2019.

Edited by soulman

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