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CBrownsman

Two schools of thought with roster building this year

How would you handle this offseaosn?  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. How would you handle this offseaosn?

    • Spend big on big name Free agents. We have the cap space, use it to try and win now!
      2
    • Sign lesser players to smaller contracts like last year. We need to save the money to retain our core players!
      11


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4 minutes ago, hornbybrown said:

The whole rookie contract QB window thing is over blown. Russel Wilson is the only recent rookie contract QB to win a superbowl. Vet QB's win superbowls.

It seems you have to wait for the value of their contract to depress on a annual basis for team building purposes. 

Matt ryan, aaron rodgers, two highest paid players, not in the playoffs . 

Kirk cousins, not in the playoffs

Eli manning, derek carr, not in the playoffs. Both make over 20 million. 

It seems like you have to keep the team loaded with picks and cap year in and year out and not sell out to get better. 

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My strategy would be to emulate the Patriots. They essentially have had 3-4 different "cores" during the course of the Brady/Bellichick era. I would try to assemble our first core this year, and plan to have to pull together the second core in 4-5 years (stock up a handful of extra picks and be ready to re-evaluate where core guys are in their career progression).

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22 minutes ago, hornbybrown said:

The whole rookie contract QB window thing is over blown. Russel Wilson is the only recent rookie contract QB to win a superbowl. Vet QB's win superbowls.

Nah. Just because people overrate it doesn't mean it's not a thing. The extra 20-25M in cap space isn't enough to make a bad team good, but if you sign two stud, high-impact players (or like 4-5 mid-tier, solid starters) that you couldn't have gotten otherwise, that is certainly an advantage.

You need your rookie QB to be good enough to seize that advantage, but I don't think many of us doubt that to be the case.

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1 minute ago, freakygeniuskid said:

Nah. Just because people overrate it doesn't mean it's not a thing. The extra 20-25M in cap space isn't enough to make a bad team good, but if you sign two stud, high-impact players (or like 4-5 mid-tier, solid starters) that you couldn't have gotten otherwise, that is certainly an advantage.

You need your rookie QB to be good enough to seize that advantage, but I don't think many of us doubt that to be the case.

I think Baker can win one on his rookie contract, So can MaHomes. As for Darnold, Rossen, Allen, Jackson and anyone coming out this year I don't see it

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1 minute ago, hornbybrown said:

I think Baker can win one on his rookie contract, So can MaHomes. As for Darnold, Rossen, Allen, Jackson and anyone coming out this year I don't see it

Agreed. Everybody else has a lot more growing to do. They might be up there in a few years, but it seems like only Mahomes, Mayfield, and Watson of the 2017/18 classes are ready to compete right now.

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3 hours ago, hornbybrown said:

The whole rookie contract QB window thing is over blown. Russel Wilson is the only recent rookie contract QB to win a superbowl. Vet QB's win superbowls.

This isn’t even true.

The Eagles won on Wentz’s rookie deal (even if he was hurt), the Ravens won on Flacco’, the Giants on Eli’s, the Steelers on Ben’s, the Pats won multiple on Brady’s, etc.

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38 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

This isn’t even true.

The Eagles won on Wentz’s rookie deal (even if he was hurt), the Ravens won on Flacco’, the Giants on Eli’s, the Steelers on Ben’s, the Pats won multiple on Brady’s, etc.

How many of those in the last ten years? Any longer than that and it's not recent.

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3 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

My strategy would be to emulate the Patriots. They essentially have had 3-4 different "cores" during the course of the Brady/Bellichick era.

Yes.

That is part of BB's genius.

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16 minutes ago, hornbybrown said:

How many of those in the last ten years?

3.  The same as the team with the he GOAT QB and GOAT coach.

I’ll take those odds.

16 minutes ago, hornbybrown said:

Any longer than that and it's not recent.

They’re all within the last 18 years.

If you want to disregard the point because it doesn’t fit your narrative feel free, but I just stated facts. 

Where does the 10 year point come into play?  Seems rather arbitrary to me....

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33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Speaking of arbitrary:

giphy.gif

 

Pleated slacks and a black beater.

JCVD was a fashion icon.

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3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Pleated slacks and a black beater.

JCVD was a fashion icon.

tenor.gif

I haven’t been able to take the word pleats seriously since 2004.

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4 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

My strategy would be to emulate the Patriots. They essentially have had 3-4 different "cores" during the course of the Brady/Bellichick era. I would try to assemble our first core this year, and plan to have to pull together the second core in 4-5 years (stock up a handful of extra picks and be ready to re-evaluate where core guys are in their career progression).

Or the stillers. Draft guys in the early rounds to replace aging older vets. Take chances on guys in the mid rounds to potentially start and be cheap for awhile. 

Hastag dorseylives

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17 minutes ago, Bonanza23 said:

Hastag dorseyhaslearned

fify

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On 2/6/2019 at 6:01 PM, CBrownsman said:

So we are in an interesting situation this year.

We have what every team craves for, a young, talented QB and Pass Rusher both on their rookie deals for a few years.

However in 2 years from today we will be paying Myles Garrett the average of the top 10 DE's in the nfl (right now valued at 14.2 million), paying David Njoku the average of 3rd-25th highest paid salaries at TE (right now valued at 5.4 Million), and paying Jabrill Peppers the average of 3rd-25th highest paid salaries at Safety (right now valued at 6.3 million).

3 years from today we will be talking about whether we are paying those 3 players on long-term contracts as well as paying Baker Mayfield the average of the top 10 QB's in the nfl (right now valued at 20.1 million) and Denzel Ward the average of top 10 CB's in the NFL (right now valued at 12.4 million).

Though it currently seems like we have a lot of money with 80 million dollars in cap space this year, considering 58 million of that is rollover from last year, our team salary is technically only about 22 million dollars under the salary cap this year.  Granted it seems like the salary cap is consistently going up 10 million dollars a year, that still leaves us with less money to spend on our free agents when they come available then it appears on paper.

That being said, there are two schools of thought when it comes to spending this off season:

1.  We have two of the most valuable assets in the NFL.  A true franchise QB and a #1 Pass Rusher on their rookie deals.  We should utilize whatever cap space we have to try and build a team around them to win now.  Large spending on a big name DT (Grady Jarrett? Michael Pierce? Ndomukon Suh?) and a big name DE across from Garrett (Demarcus Lawrence? Frank Clark? Dee Ford? Jadavion Clowney? Trey Flowers?), a big name LB (CJ Mosley?).  Even make a big trade to help Baker like for Odell Bekham Jr.  Granted these moves could hurt us in a few years in our ability to re-sign our own guys.  I'm not saying we wont re-sign Myles Garrett or Baker Mayfield but it might make re-signing Denzel Ward more difficult.  Or at the very least long term contracts on other important players on our team difficult.  And in the mean time start drafting replacements for the guys we know we wont be able to afford to keep down the road and trying and get them experience so loosing Jarvis Landry? or Jabrill Peppers? or Denzel Ward?  or Joel Bitonio? will hurt less.

2.  We have the cap space so we can keep the core of this team together and build through the draft.  We sign guys similar to last year on prove it contracts so if the positions of need are not the BPA then we don't NEED to draft them, but none of the players we sign are anything to write home about.  We sign guys like Rodney Gunter DT, and Brandon Graham DE, Thomas Davis LB, resign guys who did well for us like Higgins, Perriman and Robinson, and use the draft to continue to improve positions like DT and LB if those are the best players on our board.  Then when Baker, Garrett, and Wards contracts come up we will be ready for them and have no problem retaining our core!

Honestly I am a little torn as I could see both of these arguments as very valid.  On the one hand we have the most valuable asset in the NFL, a franchise QB on his rookie deal, but on the other hand we don't want to be in cap hell when its time to resign them.  What would you guys do if you were in charge?  Maybe there is middle ground but I'm curious if you had to pick one of the two which way you would go.

I think the trick is balance and positional value. Before, we could afford high prices OGs like Zeitler or Steinbach because we had so few star players taking up cap-space, but good teams don't pay interior Olinemen like that. 

This is how I break it down from my perspective:

Big money guys:

QB, 1 WR, LT, 1 OC or OG. 

2 pass rushers, the 2nd can be a DE or DT, 1 impact safety, 1 CB.

Rare Exceptions: Top 3 in the league TE, LB, 2nd WR or 2nd CB.

Middle contracts:

Typically here is your 2nd WR, TE, 2 OL, 

3rd pass rusher, 1 or 2 LBs, a safety, 2nd CB

Rookie contracts that don't get resigned, or cheap vet contract.

RB, 1 or 2 OL, 1 LB, 3rd CB, 2nd TE, 3rd WR.

Now this whole system works only if you draft well. Here's an example: we give big contract to Frank Clark, front loaded somewhat, and draft Christian Wilkins. By the time we hafta pay Wilkins big money we've moved on from Clark to a DE on a rookie contract drafted within the previous two years.

I don't see Njoku getting a top tier contract personally. I see a middle contract or his replacement drafted within the next two drafts.

Peppers might still climb up to that top tier, but he's middle tier looking to me. Ogunjobi is middle tier or replaced, due to him being more of a run stuffer, but his pass rush is progressing and I think he ends up middle tier.

After 2019, I'd move on from Zeitler, Tretter, and Hubbard. I'd draft a OG or OC and a RT this year, solid year for it, and if I do believe in my scouting as I'm Dorsey, I'd expect Corbett to replace Tretter or Zeitler.

I'd extend Ogunjobi and Peppers to upper mid tier deals, have already extended Schobert, Higgins, Randall, and Robinson to upper mid tier deals.

2020 roster would look like this:

QB- Baker on rookie deal

RB- Chubb on rookie deal

WR- Jarvis on current top tier deal

WR- Higgins on mid tier deal

WR- Callaway on rookie deal or another drafted player on rookie deal + vet like Perriman on low end deal.

TE- Njoku on mid tier deal

LT- Robinson on mid tier deal

LG- Bitonio on upper tier deal

C- Corbett or drafted guy, both on rookie deals

RG- Corbett or drafted guy, both on rookie deals

RT- Desmond H or drafted guy, both on rookie deals

DE- Myles on rookie deal( to be extended after 2020 season)

3Tech- drafted guy, maybe Wilkins, on rookie deal

DT- Ogunjobi on mid tier deal

DE- guy like Frank Clark on upper tier deal

WILL- drafted guy on rookie deal

MIKE- Schobert on mid tier deal

SAM- Avery on rookie deal

SS- Peppers on mid tier deal

FS- Randall on mid tier deal

CB- Ward on rookie deal

CB- Mitchell on lower mid tier deal

CB- drafted guy on rookie deal

12 of our starters are still on rookie deals, 3 upper tier guys with Myles about to be 4th, and 8 mid tier guys. Even if Peppers or Njoku become top tier guys, this is very manageable. But, Dorsey has to draft well.

If you want, I can project into 2022.

 

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