AlNFL19 Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, m haynes said: NFL network just had a breakdown on QB in the draft. They were talking about the faults and over reaching for need. they compared this year class with 2011 draft and how teams took QB that were not deserving of there draft status.Brian Balding has major concerns with D Jones and if he has the makeup to deal with the pressure at the next level.. He said that Jones had difficulty and he was disappointed in his performance while working with Pro coaches. CAM NEWTON. COLIN KAEPERNICK. ANDY DALTON. JAKE LOCKER. ---------- D Lock CHRISTIAN PONDER. --------------- D Jones BLAINE GABBERT. I developed a statistical model that I displayed in the NFL Draft subforum, and it doesn't like Jones either (neither do I). His projection (in terms of Years 3-4 average Approximate Value): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.95 Bust Chance 78.29% PB Chance 13.99% That's good for fifth behind Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Finley. Of the 21 qualified (drafted in first three rounds) prospects since 2006 to fall under 5.0 projected AV, there have been 2 to cross 5.0 AV in reality (Matt Ryan and Chad Henne - Henne hit exactly 5). Not a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m haynes Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: I developed a statistical model that I displayed in the NFL Draft subforum, and it doesn't like Jones either (neither do I). His projection (in terms of Years 3-4 average Approximate Value): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke Statistic Figure Projected AV 3.95 Bust Chance 78.29% PB Chance 13.99% That's good for fifth behind Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Finley. Of the 21 qualified (drafted in first three rounds) prospects since 2006 to fall under 5.0 projected AV, there have been 2 to cross 5.0 AV in reality (Matt Ryan and Chad Henne - Henne hit exactly 5). Not a good sign. By chance, do you have Christian Ponders numbers. Jones reminds me of him. Same draft hype. I thought he was a bust and laughed when he went in the 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted April 19, 2019 Author Share Posted April 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, m haynes said: By chance, do you have Christian Ponders numbers. Jones reminds me of him. Same draft hype. I thought he was a bust and laughed when he went in the 1st round. Ponder was a joke. Jones at least looks like he plays quarterback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted April 19, 2019 Author Share Posted April 19, 2019 1 hour ago, m haynes said: CAM NEWTON -------------- Dwayne Haskins COLIN KAEPERNICK ------------------ Jarrett Stidham ANDY DALTON ------------------- Kyler Murray JAKE LOCKER. ---------- Daniel Jones CHRISTIAN PONDER. --------------- Drew Lock BLAINE GABBERT ---------------- Will Grier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m haynes Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 (edited) 42 minutes ago, DoleINGout said: Ponder was a joke. Jones at least looks like he plays quarterback. That's true however He was a 1st rd pick. He had the same hyped that Jone is getting. Jones career completion percentage of 59.9 percent and touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio of 52-29 at Duke. You here all the excuses for his numbers. IMO they believe the hype and not the ( many excuses why) faults. Edited April 20, 2019 by m haynes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, m haynes said: By chance, do you have Christian Ponders numbers. Jones reminds me of him. Same draft hype. I thought he was a bust and laughed when he went in the 1st round. Yes, I do. I have every FBS QB drafted Rounds 1-3 since 2006. Ponder was actually far higher in projection, which even further makes the case against Jones. However, Ponder was still projected to likely (58.63%) be a bust. C. Ponder, QB, Florida State Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.22 Bust Chance 58.63% PB Chance 32.77% And in terms of projections, these were the players that ranked the same in their respective classes: 1. Cam Newton ; Kyler Murray 2. Colin Kaepernick ; Dwayne Haskins 3. Andy Dalton ; Drew Lock 4. Jake Locker ; Ryan Finley 5. Christian Ponder ; Daniel Jones 6. Blaine Gabbert ; Jarrett Stidham 7. Ryan Mallett ; Will Grier And the 2011 class was significantly better in terms of average projection, though Kyler's projection is the highest of all listed. Not a good thing either. Edit: Jones' closest comparison by projection is Brian Brohm. Edited April 20, 2019 by AlNFL19 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m haynes Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: Yes, I do. I have every FBS QB drafted Rounds 1-3 since 2006. Ponder was actually far higher in projection, which even further makes the case against Jones. However, Ponder was still projected to likely (58.63%) be a bust. C. Ponder, QB, Florida State Statistic Figure Projected AV 5.22 Bust Chance 58.63% PB Chance 32.77% And in terms of projections, these were the players that ranked the same in their respective classes: 1. Cam Newton ; Kyler Murray 2. Colin Kaepernick ; Dwayne Haskins 3. Andy Dalton ; Drew Lock 4. Jake Locker ; Ryan Finley 5. Christian Ponder ; Daniel Jones 6. Blaine Gabbert ; Jarrett Stidham 7. Ryan Mallett ; Will Grier And the 2011 class was significantly better in terms of average projection, though Kyler's projection is the highest of all listed. Not a good thing either. Edit: Jones' closest comparison by projection is Brian Brohm. Big gulp Finley and Locker, Brohm and Jones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 minute ago, m haynes said: Big gulp Finley and Locker, Brohm and Jones Just based on how close their final projections are. Not a good sign. But I think the Pats could turn Finley or Jones into something, if anyone can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m haynes Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said: Just based on how close their final projections are. Not a good sign. But I think the Pats could turn Finley or Jones into something, if anyone can. Don't tell anyone, but I have a real guilty pleasure. I won't say what it is however its begins with Fin and ends in ley! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 I hate this year's QB class if I'm being honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 (edited) Phil Perry of Ex-Pats podcast does the Patriots specific PROTOTYPE draft. Available on NBC sports, Boston.com etc. So, NE-type players - fit profiles and patriots system (43) (Traded 32 with Lions for 2020 second and pick 43) - S. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson The Chung clone. Similar style, similar measurables. Athletic. Was somebody who blitzed a lot, cover TEs and RBs, mix it up in running game. 2017 was more of a FS and a watcher. Versatile, use all over secondary (56) OT. Kaleb McGary 6'7, 315, athlete. 5-flat 40, quickness of charts, explosive. Good run blocker. (64) WR. Emanuel Hall Good size, incredible explosiveness, elite speed, not-great hands though (Samuel, McLaurin etc gone) (73) TE. Dawson Knox SEC with great production, refined route runner, not great hands. Passed up Sternberger as Knox more athletic - Knox has close to Fant levels of straight line speed. Powerful. (97) CB. Joejuan Williams BB loves the Vanderbilt program, ridiculous size but also quick for the size, supposedly ran a 4.55 at pro-day at 6'4" (101) DT. Khalen Saunders Rare. Good explosiveness for weight, sudden, 121inch broad jump at 6'0. Good at Senior Bowl - won all 7 reps (even against Lindstrom, Bradbury etc) (134) EDGE. Anthony Nelson BB loves Iowa, elite size and length, good jump numbers, set edge (205) LB. Dre Greenlaw Not the physical prototype but character stuff is typical - captain, been through a lot, renowned leader and worker, special teams demon? Could fill Elandon Roberts role (239) EDGE. Jesse Aniebonam Reportedly shown interest, good production before injury, 6'3, 258, 4.66, 123 inch broad WR. Nick Easley - Leader, slot receiver, BB loves program, good size and athleticism RB. Alex Barnes - freaky athlete, good size WR. Nsimba Webster - Athletic, slot, returner, 6.7 3 cone Edited April 20, 2019 by Hunter2_1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoleINGout Posted April 20, 2019 Author Share Posted April 20, 2019 That would be a good draft. ^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Nice in theory but if all those were available at our picks I would be surprised. Phil is really optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 I quite like his idea of trading the first for next season 2nd and this year's 2nd. That would be a 1st and two 2nds in next year's draft which should be far better for QUARTERRR BAAAYYACKS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said: I quite like his idea of trading the first for next season 2nd and this year's 2nd. That would be a 1st and two 2nds in next year's draft which should be far better for QUARTERRR BAAAYYACKS I we package 2021 1st, 2020 1st, 2020 2nd, 2020 2nd, 2020 3rd, 2020 3rd and 2020 3rd we would get into the top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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