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DoleINGout

2019 NFL Draft Thread: Nashville

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Anybody attending the draft this spring?

 

As cool as Dallas was in 2018, Nashville promises to be even more fun this April. I want to encourage anybody here to share their tips or insights regarding the draft prospects and picks for any of the thirty-two NFL teams. Aside from NFL free agency, the NFL draft discussion is a major part of what makes this forum so irresistible for many of its members. I come here to learn and reflect on my own ideas as it relates to the "future of football".

Currently, the Patriots are figured to be targeting interior defensive line depth, a wide receiver, and quarterback of the future all with high priority. Without having studied up on much of the upcoming draft class myself yet, I am aware of Clemson's Christian Wilkins and I know he would be a nice addition on defense for the Pats at defensive tackle.

One lesser known player I like is Stanford wide receiver JJ Arcega-Whiteside. JJ stands out for a number of reasons, although his quick feet and good footwork top the list. A relatively tall guy at 6'2, Arcega-Whiteside consistently wins leverage when facing cornerbacks by getting on top of his defender early with a quick release off the line of scrimmage into his route. Reliable as a pass catcher, he is able to use his body frame to adjust to the ball with precision with great timing and feel for where the defenders are, showing tremendous spatial awareness. A threat at all levels of the field, JJ profiles as a possession receiver in the NFL. Coming from a reputable football program at an academically demanding school, it is a safe bet that Arcega-Whiteside has a good head on his shoulders and is capable of transitioning as a pro.

For quarterback, I am intrigued by Aubrun's Jarrett Stidham. There is a duel-threat element to this predominantly pocket passing QB that stands out, although Stidhan is still unrefined at times with accuracy. I expect the Patriots to study the QB position intensely but ultimately invest in future drafts to find their solutiom should Brady decide to retire. Jalen Hurts is a target I'm hopeful for in 2020.

 

At the conclusion of the 2018 season, the Patriots draft capital includes their own first round pick, two second round picks including one from the Bears, three third round picks including two compensatory selections from Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler, their own fourth, a fifth round compensatory selection from Danny Amendola who may be a free agent again, and four seventh round picks including one from the Josh Gordon trade with the Browns, their own seventh, the Eagles seventh in a swap from last year, and a compensatory selection from Cameron Fleming in 2018.

Edited by DoleINGout

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JJ Arcega-Whiteside's parents were both basketball players and it shows in his ability to high point the football:

 

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The 7th round picks could be useful to get a head start on priority UDFAs. The other 8 picks we have could very well make the 2019 roster. 

 

It'll be interesting how it shakes out and we have to wait until after FA but as of now my priorities for the draft

1st round: Defensive Line. There are a lot of good ones in this draft and BB likes to strengthen the lines in round 1.

2nd round: WR and TE. There is depth and value for both positions in the 2nd round so I could see us drafting something like Ridley/Arcega-Whiteside/Harmon/Harry and Fant for example.

3rd round: safety, DL, LB. McCourty could retire and Chung is old. So a safety would make sense. LB to replace Roberts for depth or even as a starter if Hightower is not a Patriot in 2019. 

4th round: OL. Looking for a OL who can play both inside and tackle to eventually replace Thuney and replace Waddle as a swing T in 2019.

5th round: QB. Brady will be around for another 3 years but a depth pickup to replace Hoyer in 2020 and beyond.

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Tight end is supposed to be a strong class again in 2019 from what I've read, but free agency is also ripe with tight ends and I think the Pats will go in that direction instead. Cameron Brate might be cut and I could see him as a target or a special teams/blocking tight end like Nick Boyle from the Ravens. Ryan Izzo is also an intriguing option already on the roster who I expect to compete and beat Jacob Hollister for a roster spot.

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1 hour ago, SBLIII said:

The 7th round picks could be useful to get a head start on priority UDFAs. The other 8 picks we have could very well make the 2019 roster. 

 

It'll be interesting how it shakes out and we have to wait until after FA but as of now my priorities for the draft

1st round: Defensive Line. There are a lot of good ones in this draft and BB likes to strengthen the lines in round 1.

2nd round: WR and TE. There is depth and value for both positions in the 2nd round so I could see us drafting something like Ridley/Arcega-Whiteside/Harmon/Harry and Fant for example.

3rd round: safety, DL, LB. McCourty could retire and Chung is old. So a safety would make sense. LB to replace Roberts for depth or even as a starter if Hightower is not a Patriot in 2019. 

4th round: OL. Looking for a OL who can play both inside and tackle to eventually replace Thuney and replace Waddle as a swing T in 2019.

5th round: QB. Brady will be around for another 3 years but a depth pickup to replace Hoyer in 2020 and beyond.

I agree with you in the first and second round. I see the Pats trading up in the first to get Christian Wilkins and then in the second going after Arcega-White or someone of similar variety.

Your third round analysis I have a few things to chime in about however. McCourty and Chung are the same age I believe, and to me Chung played his best season yet in 2018. I expect both to return for this season. As for Roberts being replaced, I agree that will more than likely happen however don't forget about JaWaun Bentley and Christian Sam already on the payroll. I highly doubt Dont'a Hightower is cut; in fact I think it is ridiculous that he is even potentially expected to be released. I don't see any issue drafting a linebacker early but for the reasons you laid out, I don't agree.

I think Trent Brown will re-sign and Thuney will be replaced eventually by Isaiah Wynn at left guard. After the second round it becomes increasingly difficult to predict which positions will be targeted. I do believe that a backup QB will be explored in the draft as early as round three though.

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18 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I don't think Will Grier is going to be a great NFL QB, but if any team can draft and develop him, it might be the Pats. Grier has solid accuracy and can get the ball out quick, and the Pats can iron out his mechanical issues. The main thing, though, is that Grier is at his best reading looks before the snap and throwing based on those. The Pats use a lot of motions and formations that can tell the quarterback what's going on in the defense, and the Pats can let Grier have a year or two or whatever to work on moving through his progressions after the snap. If Grier is around come round 4-5, he's a decent value that I might take a chance on.

I mentioned Jarrett Stidham in my opening post, however Will Grier is the quarterback I have has my eye on the most. I like Grier's moxy and he reminds me of Julian Edelman in that regard. I will go as far as to GUARANTEE that Will Grier will be on the New England Patriots. I expect him to be drafted in the first two rounds.

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2 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

I mentioned Jarrett Stidham in my opening post, however Will Grier is the quarterback I have has my eye on the most. I like Grier's moxy and he reminds me of Julian Edelman in that regard. I will go as far as to GUARANTEE that Will Grier will be on the New England Patriots. I expect him to be drafted in the first two rounds.

I'm still skeptical of him but I think he has a chance to be good running our offense. This was my evaluation of him:

W. Grier, 5SR, West Virginia 5.35
Decision-Making (17.0) 8.0
Accuracy (16.0) 10.0
Pocket Awareness (15.0) 6.5
Release Quickness / Motion (13.0) 6.0
Leadership / Intangibles (11.0) 9.0
Arm Strength (11.0) 5.0
Mobility / Running Ability (10.0) 5.5
Mechanics (8.0) 3.5

His 5.35 grade is good for Rounds 3-5. He hit three of the six thresholds that I think most franchise quarterbacks should hit: above-average decision-making, average accuracy, above-average leadership, average mobility, above-average pocket awareness, and an above-average release quickness / motion. He has some issues, obviously.

Grier isn't great at going through progressions, but he's pretty strong with pre-snap reads and gets the ball out decisively based on those. If the Pats think they can stick him in their offense and give him enough information before the snap to cancel out his mediocre post-snap decision-making, then I'd take a Round 3-4 flier on him. 

One guy I'm hoping the Pats don't have their eye on is Ryan Finley. He's a sixth-year senior but still has huge problems with locking onto his first read and not going through progressions.

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@AlNFL19 I doubt Finley is on the Patriots list of targets, but I do see Grier gettinf drafted higher than the third round based on position value and the lack of depth this class. I wiuld normally say Grier profiles as a third round prospect but in 2019 he could go in the mid-first depending on where Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, and Dwayne Haskins get selected.

Considering Christian Wilkins will be likely gone by the thirty-second pick, I very much expect Grier to be on the Patriots radar with their first selection regardless. I don't expect a first round pick to be necessary just yet, but by the time the draft gets here it certainly may be.

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Deebo Samuel is a player I love after film review as both inside and outside receiver and would be a very good fit in NE imo. If we could get Samuel and sign Chris Conley our WR production would be great

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The Patriots have the 32nd and final pick, as Super Bowl champions. The last pick of the first round is often traded (it has been traded in each of the last three drafts) because plenty of teams want to move up to the high first round to grab a player they think they’ll want to lock up for five years. (Second-round picks get four-year contracts, but first-round draft picks have a fifth-year option in their contracts.) So don’t be surprised if the Patriots end up making a move like trading their first-round pick for another team’s second- and third-round picks.

And once the second and third rounds get going, the Patriots are in great shape. As Peter King noted in today’s Football Morning in America, the Patriots are expected to have five picks on Day 2: Their own second-round pick, the Bears’ second-round pick and the Lions’ third-round pick (both acquired via trades last year), and two likely third-round compensatory picks for letting Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler walk in free agency last year.

If compensatory picks go as expected, the Patriots will select six players in the 70 picks from the last pick of the first round through the last pick of the third round. And that’s before we get to the part where the Patriots may very well trade one of those picks for more picks, as they’ve been so successful at doing through the years.

It’s also worth noting that the Patriots’ top pick last year, offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn, missed his entire rookie year with an Achilles injury but is expected to be good to go in 2019. That’s another talented young player who is essentially a new addition to the roster.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/11/patriots-in-great-shape-on-day-2-of-the-draft/

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5 hours ago, SBLIII said:

and sign Chris Conley

I think Adam Humphries is a free agent receiver that profiles as a better fit in the offensive system we traditionally see with McDaniels. Although, Conley would be an interesting experiment akin to Cordarelle Patterson.

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2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

It’s also worth noting that the Patriots’ top pick last year, offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn, missed his entire rookie year with an Achilles injury but is expected to be good to go in 2019. That’s another talented young player who is essentially a new addition to the roster.

Wynn's return, combined with the relatively low dead money left on Joe Thuney's contract if released or traded, is why I have mentioned that he could be sent to a team in dire need of offensive lineman like the Vikings for a second round pick. If traded of cut, Thuney would only cost approximately $50,000 against the cap in dead money the Patriots would owe. Thuney is under contract in 2019 and then becomes a free agent.

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4 minutes ago, DoleINGout said:

Wynn's return, combined with the relatively low dead money left on Joe Thuney's contract if released or traded, is why I have mentioned that he could be sent to a team in dire need of offensive lineman like the Vikings for a second round pick. If traded of cut, Thuney would only cost approximately $50,000 against the cap in dead money the Patriots would owe. Thuney is under contract in 2019 and then becomes a free agent.

I could see Thuney being traded but only if Trent Brown will get re-signed. 

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11 minutes ago, SBLIII said:

I could see Thuney being traded but only if Trent Brown will get re-signed. 

I feel confident that Trent Brown is staying put.

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