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Who gets in Hall of Fame 1st of 2004 QB Class?


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Hall of Fame QBs  

71 members have voted

  1. 1. Who gets in 1st?

    • Eli Manning
      15
    • Ben Roethlisberger
      52
    • Philip Rivers
      4


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Rivers has not done enough to elevate himself, YET.

  • Stat accumulation by itself is meaningless without post season success or MVP level seasons.
  • No one is saying he is a bum and he already has the Hall of Very Good locked up.

 

He just needs a few more accomplishments to get to that next level.

  • Get a few more 12+ win seasons (he only has 3 so far)
  • Play at an MVP level once or twice (he's been close before but on mediocre teams)
  • Win 5 playoff games over the next 4 years to get to 10 wins
  • Play well in a Super Bowl (winning it would be a huge plus)

Do those along with more stats and he probably gets in.

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Meh. I think Rivers is a Hall of Famer. Probably 5th ballot or so though.

 

Big Ben for sure, even though I think Phil is better, but Ben has the combo of great stats, great play, and SBs. Rivers doesn't have one of those.

 

Eli will get in, too. Ahead of Rivers. He'll retire first. He has multiple SBs. He's generally one of the most overrated QBs in the game (or was until 2017), but an underrated aspect of his game is the toughness. He was Iron Man for a while, taking hit after hit and getting back up, starting like a gazillion games in a row. He was decent enough for most of his career, but that's not a HOF qualifier. When he gets into the Hall, it'll be because of the combo of SB wins, Toughness, and Leadership. 

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3 hours ago, SkippyX said:

Rivers has not done enough to elevate himself, YET.

  • Stat accumulation by itself is meaningless without post season success or MVP level seasons.
  • No one is saying he is a bum and he already has the Hall of Very Good locked up.

 

He just needs a few more accomplishments to get to that next level.

  • Get a few more 12+ win seasons (he only has 3 so far)
  • Play at an MVP level once or twice (he's been close before but on mediocre teams)
  • Win 5 playoff games over the next 4 years to get to 10 wins
  • Play well in a Super Bowl (winning it would be a huge plus)

Do those along with more stats and he probably gets in.

+1 to all of this. I can see the Chargers making a deep run next year, potentially to the crown of Super Bowl Champions.

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17 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

That sure is alot of projecting to give Stafford those kind of career stats. 

Who doesn't respect probowls? If that was the case, then why is there no qb in NFL history who has retired that has been to atleast 8 probowls not in the HOF? Why is probowl selections brought up at every HOF voting committee and inductions? Why is there probowl selction shows. Where did this idea that the probowl is meaningless come from? 39 players in NFL history have been to 10 probowls and all are in the HOF or will be (Brady, Peyton, Brees, Fitzgerald and Joe Thomas). 

The problem with probowls is players usually bow out of these after their first couple of opportunities.  Rodgers gets voted in a lot but hasn't played in one of these exhibitions in years because of "injuries."  Plus, it is often just a popularity contest.  Winning an MVP or being an All-Pro is more prestigious than getting into a Pro Bowl.  Rivers will need to win an MVP or All-Pro or a ring before he will be considered for Canton.

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10 minutes ago, Pugger said:

The problem with probowls is players usually bow out of these after their first couple of opportunities.  Rodgers gets voted in a lot but hasn't played in one of these exhibitions in years because of "injuries."  Plus, it is often just a popularity contest.  Winning an MVP or being an All-Pro is more prestigious than getting into a Pro Bowl.  Rivers will need to win an MVP or All-Pro or a ring before he will be considered for Canton.

Id agree with that if it is 1 or 2 probowls. Making 8 probowls is extremely prestigious. Only 13 qbs in the history of the game have that many. Rivers based on his play can continue to add to that. 

 

If this was 1 to 3 probowls, id get the arguement. But it's not. 

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On 14.2.2019 at 1:54 PM, Bearerofnews said:

Id agree with that if it is 1 or 2 probowls. Making 8 probowls is extremely prestigious. Only 13 qbs in the history of the game have that many. Rivers based on his play can continue to add to that. 

 

If this was 1 to 3 probowls, id get the arguement. But it's not. 

Not getting into the HOF with 8+ Pro Bowl appearances is rather unlikely.

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  • 3 weeks later...

During every QB-rich era in NFL history, there have been anywhere from eight to 11 Hall-of-Fame QBs active at the same time. There were exactly eight active Hall-of-Fame QBs from 1957-1962, and again from 1991-1994. The most QB-rich era, however, was from 1967-1975. Not only were there at least eight active Hall-of-Fame QBs during that time, but there were at least nine active from 1969-1975, and 10 or 11 active from 1970-1974. The current QB-rich era is better than 1957-1962 and 1991-1994, but to avoid setting a new precedent, I'll say that this current era has had nine or 10 active Hall-of-Fame QBs, not 11 or more.

Now let's pick them out. We already have Brett Favre (transcending two QB-rich eras) and Kurt Warner in the Hall of Fame, and Peyton Manning will join them in two more years, so that's three already. This leaves six or seven more openings. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are certain first-ballot Hall-of-Famers, and Ben Roethlisberger is a certain a Hall-of-Famer, though the remainder of his career and the eligibility of other Hall-of-Fame QBs will determine whether he gets in on the first ballot or not. Eli Manning is a certain a Hall-of-Famer as well, due to his enormous impact on the history of the game, but his mediocre efficiency as a passer ensures that he won't get in on the first ballot.

Add up the names above, and that's eight certain Hall-of-Fame QBs from this era, leaving just one or two more openings for up to six other QBs: Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. Of those six, Tony Romo and Cam Newton are the easiest to eliminate. Romo was efficient, but his career was too short, and he has neither the playoff success nor the individual awards to merit further consideration. (He could eventually get in as a contributor, though.) Cam Newton has a league MVP award, a First-Team All-Pro selection and a Super Bowl appearance, but that appears to be an aberration, and he's been far too inconsistent statistically.

Of the remaining four QBs, the dark horse is Russell Wilson. In just seven seasons, he's been invited to the Pro Bowl five times, and he's been to two Super Bowls, winning one of them. If he keeps up his pace, then he'll get in the Hall of Fame too. This, then, would leave Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck fighting for one final opening. Of those three, Luck is the easiest to eliminate right now, though time is on his side compared to the other two. Between Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, it's tough. Matt Ryan has a league MVP award, a First-Team All-Pro selection and a Super Bowl appearance, but it took almost a decade for him to be more than just good. By comparison, Rivers has been much more consistent, but he lacks the playoff success and individual awards. It's possible that neither of them will get in.

EDIT: I need to include Donovan McNabb in this comparison as well. He's in the mix with Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan, with six Pro Bowl invitations and a Super Bowl appearance. He has more Pro Bowl invitations than Matt Ryan, but no individual awards. He has a Super Bowl appearance, unlike Rivers, but fewer Pro Bowl invitations. He's retired now, so he has no chance to build his legacy like the other two. Between the 2002 NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl XXXIX, he developed a reputation as a choker in big games, and this will more than likely keep him out of the Hall of Fame.

Edited by Bassomatic
Adding Donovan McNabb to the discussion
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I had a long post in a similar thread back in November regarding my thoughts on Rivers' chances so I'll just requote it here rather than typing new junk up, it's kind of similar to Bassomatic's X HoF QBs per era with the caveat that QB careers are so much longer now so it's harder to peg down an era of peers, especially when 14 of Favre's 19 seasons starting came before Rivers had his first start.

 

On 11/10/2018 at 9:55 PM, Bobikus said:

Bored and feeling kinda sick tonight so here's away too many words on the topic:

I think part of this question kinda comes down to how many QBs that played in the same era as Rivers gets in in the first place. seems to be about 7-8ish QBs of each generation going in.  So far this generation we have Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Ben who are locks.  (Favre I'm counting as the previous generation and Warner's career is such an aberration that I kinda want to just ignore him in any comparisons).

As contemporaries of Rivers we have Eli, Ryan, Newton, Wilson, McNabb that are worth mentioning at all with guys like Goff/Wentz as the start of the next generation, and Newton/Wilson just barely around long enough to talk about.  Of this group Rivers is currently the only one to not play in a Super Bowl, while Wilson has one ring and Eli two.

To start with arguments for Rivers of course:  He's a very efficient passer.  His PFR rate+,y/a+,ay/a+ put him around the same as Ben (despite general consensus that Rivers has been the better regular season player, they're extremely close statistically including just 0.4 apart in YPG), and above everyone but Romo, Wilson, and the "big 4".  In 2008-2010 he was top 3 in rating each year, leading once, was first in Y/A each of those years, and on the whole was the most efficient passer in the league over that span while being top 3 in yards and top 3 in TDs, leading once in each.  He's had some down years efficiency wise, but also great years again in 2013 and so far this year.  His volume is sufficient too.  Of 13 years starting he's been top 10 in yards and TDs 10 and 11 times respectively, and top 5 6 times for each (assuming he remains on pace this year).  That also comes with his ironman streak of 200 consecutive starts, which if it continues will pass Peyton for 2nd among QBs next September.  He also has 7 pro bowl selections (yes, this matters) and was on the NFL top 100 list 8 times.

Main argument against is pretty clear:  He's pretty much patient zero of this era for good QB play but not the team success that tends to go with it.  Only one AFCCG appearance, 7 years of no playoffs, 3 years with losing records including the bad 4-12 and 5-11 years under McCoy.  Coaching has definitely not been on Rivers' side here.  Turner and McCoy are by no measure a good slate of HCs.  Turner was gifted on making a team worse than the sum of what should be good parts and 2010 is basically a case study on how terrible special teams and poor coaching can have a team that's first in both yards gained AND yards allowed miss the playoffs.  His few playoff appearances were against a rough slate as well.  3 postseasons in a row included facing the #1 D, including a loss where he threw 3 TDs with a 105 rating against a historically good defense.  Outside of his first loss, in his first year starting, I wouldn't consider any losses him choking or letting his team down, but it still stands that he lacks any postseason success.

On top of that is the lack of regular season accolades beyond the pro bowl. No MVPs or OPOTYs.   His best years tended to come when Manning was winning his later MVPs, mostly on the back of better team record than better individual stats in the 08-09 seasons, while the '13 season was of course the TD record breaking one.  Even this year the great year he's having is being overshadowed by Brees and Mahomes, though there's still almost half a season of games left to account for.  No first team all-pros either but that almost goes without saying in an era where the first team all-pro QB is probably the MVP by default.

In any case he's had a very great career that on the stat sheet fits the profile of a HoF player perfectly, but without some crowning thing to put him over the top into certain lock territory.  The only QBs in the Hall without a ring or an (AP) MVP are Moon, Fouts, and Jurgensen (if you ignore his ring as a backup on the Eagles), and the former 2 at least have OPOTYs.  Assuming that more than 10 (including Warner) don't go from the same era, Rivers has to beat out at least 1-2 from that above group.

McNabb is the easiest.  Decent stats and more playoff wins than Rivers and at least an SB appearance, but no ring or MVP, never lead in a major QB stat.  McNabb had some good years but  I think Rivers would pretty comfortably go before McNabb is considered.

Eli is kind of an interesting case in that everyone seems to think he probably gets in even thanks to the rings even though probably no one would argue his regular season play merits consideration.  He has good volume numbers but his efficiency is mediocre and closer to Flacco than any HoF lock this generation, and no one is really arguing that Flacco and his one ring is going to get in.  There's also the obvious comparisons due to being part of that 04 class and the famous draft day trade.  Despite the clear gulf in regular season play though Eli does still have 4 pro bowl selections. Despite thinking Eli does probably sneak in eventually, I give the edge to Rivers here as of now, with him aging much more gracefully.

Ryan and Newton are kinda similar in argument here (beyond Ryan being in the league a little longer), two QBs that have been generally good but not always great in most years, but each have one MVP year coupled with an SB loss.  Ryan's an efficient passer but even with the MVP season his career passing isn't as efficient as Rivers, and aside from the MVP season isn't really that close.  Newton is hard to gauge in that his passing stats are just average but he's the best rushing QB ever.  I think that Rivers is more deserving of either as of now, but the same people that vote on AP MVPs have pull with the committee so it's hard to ignore those even as just outlier years.  I want to say that between the two I think Newton has a better chance due to being a more unique player.

Wilson is the youngest of the group in playing time but also probably the toughest one to mention here.  He managed to go the Brady/Ben route of getting a ring real early while playing efficiently even if not at high passing yardage, and was a goal line mishap away from a second.  No MVPs or first team all-pros yet but was in the conversation for sure in 2015 and have gotten it if the Panthers had another loss or two on their schedule.  His love of running in the backfield leads to probably as many sacks as big plays sometimes, but it's lead to having the most efficient passing stats outside of the big 4 (and Romo).  The Seahawks seem to be in decline but his passing is as efficient as ever, and the team turning around seems more likely than him falling off.  It's early in his career enough that he's kinda on the tail end of what could be seen as the generation surrounding Rivers, but he feels the most "on pace" of any QB not already considered a lock.  I'd put him over Rivers on the assumption that he doesn't drop off massively in his early 30s, but this is of course with the huge caveat that I'm projecting that someone might have a career stat sheet on par with what Rivers already has.  He just seems mostly like to end up similar to Rivers, but with a ring and more chances left to get some MVP votes on his side.

Main conclusion I'm getting here is that I think he does get in, or at least SHOULD get in imo, depending partially on how the rest of Ryans/Newtons careers pan out before Rivers is on any ballots.  The Big 4, Ben, Warner is 6 spots, leaving 2-3 left.  Even being generous about Wilson's odds, that puts Rivers vs Eli, Ryan, and Newton who even with their accolades I can't see as being more deserving than Rivers as things stand now.

 

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On 2/11/2019 at 6:32 AM, Buddyboy said:

1 EM ballot 1

2 BR not ballot 1

3 PR will wait

Eli Manning delivered two SBs to the NYG market in the most improbable of circumstances. Might have saved that market from mediocrity. Made the Pats wait. Golden.

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