Forge's TCMD - 2019 edition

[Forge]

It's that time of year again. Obviously, just a fun diversion for the off season, particularly leading up to the draft. Will be a little more interesting this year because I am going to be trying to run this while simultaneously vacationing in australia lol. I'll be using this to post and keep the forum updated on what I'm doing / have done, bounce ideas off everyone, take advice / ideas from people, etc. The mock off season hasn't started, but here is where we stand right now: 

Cap space, 55 million (this already deducts the cap space required to sign rookies, which is why it's lower than actual) - 

ERFA: 

• Tyvus Powell
• Greg Mabin
• Elijah Lee 

These guys will all be tendered and back with the team next year on minor deals. 

RFA: 

• Raheem Mostert. Probably no reason to tender him if I think I can get him for less than his original round tender. I don't gain anything by placing an original round tender on him if he signs anywhere else since he was an undrafted free agent. I think I'll just not tender him, and then make him a priority re-sign. 

Franchise Tag: 

• Robbie Gould. Think I'm just going to throw him a tag at 5 million rather than risk potentially losing him on the market. At his age, a 1/2 year deal is probably all I'm offering anyway, and I don't have any issues with giving him an extra 1.5m to not even let him hit the market. 

Notable Team Free agents

• Jimmie Ward - Really don't have any interest in bringing him back. Maybe, we will see what the market looks like, what the price tag is, etc. 
• Mike Person - I thought he played okay for us last year, and I don't think he'll be super pricey, though he could command a salary higher than expected. He's obviously going to hit the market since I'm not going to tag him, but i may have to wait a few free agent bidding rounds before I can re-sign him to get the salary down. 
• Bradley Pinion - Honestly in no hurry to bring him back. May look at cheaper, comparable alternatives such as Jeff Locke in free agency paired with a late round drafted punter like Bailey. 

Draft Picks

#2

#36

#67

#104

#178

#213

#245

Team Needs

• Edge
• Safety
• Linebackers
• Guard
• WR
• Corner
• TE #2

[Forge]

People on the trade block that I have interest in (all depending on cost, of course). I will update this list more and more as the off season goes on adn more teams put up their trade block.  

Tampa Bay

JPP & Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay. Brate he's cap hit for a  back up tight end is bothersome, especially for a guy that will be a tight end 2. But I'm interested in acquiring him because the dude is an absolute menace in the red zone, and obviously he's a solid receiving target, particularly for a TE #2. 

JPP had an okay season last year, but the Bucs are moving to a 3-4, so that is no longer an ideal fit. I'd like to propose an Armstead / JPP type trade to the GM, as I think that is a boon to both teams, to be perfectly honest. 3-4 end is Armstead's more natural position, and he was always pretty good at it when he was on the field for us, particularly on an efficiency basis. 

Indianapolis

Jack Doyle. Back up tight end isn't really the most dire of needs, but given that there are a couple of quality guys out there available who can fill the role, I'm pretty interested. The cap hit is slightly less than Brate's at 5.2 million. 

Joe Haeg. Swiss army knife offensive lineman. Last year of his rookie deal, 2 million cap hit. Plays tackle, plays guard. Hasn't played Center that I'm aware of, but just the ability to play both guard and tackle is pretty huge, and we know that we are a team that will crave some versatility. He was hurt last year, but otherwise hasn't had any major issues. He's not an ideal replacement for Person given that Person can play center and Haeg doesn't, but there's no guarantee Person will be back, and I do have interest in some rookie centers. 

Pittsburgh

AB. Yeah, I have some interest in him, though I doubt that anything comes of it because I think there's a pretty large gap between what fans who are willing to trade for him will give up and what Pittsburgh fans are willing to take in return. 

Miami

The dolphins have stated that they are open for business, but haven't put up an actual trade block. Kind of torn on their roster. There are some intriguing pieces, but not at the cap hits and cost I think. I'd still kind of dig Parker, but at nearly 10 million? Yeah, I don't think so. Reshad Jones? Big cap hit, I think he's 30 years old now. Would fit in potentially well, but just meh. Xavien Howard would be a really nice get of course, but that is going to cost quite a bit. 

Case Keenum / Blake Bortles

If teams are willing to give me picks to take on the contracts for a year, I'm willing to do it. Keenum would probably take more since his cap hit is 18 million, but I'd listen to offers to acquire these guys if I'm getting picks. 

Eagles and Chiefs

They both have blocks up, but nothing that I really love. The chiefs block includes Houston, Ragland & Tardif, but that's all kind of meh. The Eagles block really doesn't have anything interesting for us. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

Go get us JPP!

[Forge]

I'm putting #2 on the block, just to see interest, but I can almost guarantee that nothing will come of it. Value in trade ups is crazy depressed in this game, and nobody is going to give me that much to move down, at least not enough to warrant passing on Allen / Bosa at #2. I'd be more amenable to potentially trading out of #2 if it involved a player, so we will see if anything shakes out there. Perhaps Miami wants to swing for the fences and I can snag Howard / #13 / +3rd or something to move up to #2 if they want someone desperately. Otherwise, I Don't think I'll get the value to warrant trading out of the spot. 

Also, pretty sure that Allen / Bosa, whomever is left, is locked in at #2 for me at this point. I'm willing to listen to others' perspective on this, but I feel without a trade, this is simply what makes the most amount of sense. 

[Fureys49ers]

Allen or Bosa would be my pick at 2.

Wouldnt offer anything more than our 3rd rounder for AB but even then might just pass on that. 

My FA targets are Earl Thomas, atleast one edge player with proven production or potential shown, IOL help and a starting LB next to Warner. 

[Dub_City30]

My dream scenario would be Josh Allen or Nick Bosa with #2 pick trade back in the 1st and grab N'Keal Harry

Sign Earl Thomas and Zadarrius Smith (sp)

 

[48 1/2ers]

9 hours ago, Forge said:

Notable Team Free agents

• Jimmie Ward - Really don't have any interest in bringing him back. Maybe, we will see what the market looks like, what the price tag is, etc. Same, not worth bringing back on more than the minimum
• Mike Person - I thought he played okay for us last year, and I don't think he'll be super pricey, though he could command a salary higher than expected. He's obviously going to hit the market since I'm not going to tag him, but i may have to wait a few free agent bidding rounds before I can re-sign him to get the salary down. I'd prefer fresh meat but its pretty clear Shanny like Person more than Garnett, though I still have higher hopes for Garnett. 
• Bradley Pinion - Honestly in no hurry to bring him back. May look at cheaper, comparable alternatives such as Jeff Locke in free agency paired with a late round drafted punter like Bailey. Honestly, he's terrible. Great guy off the field though. 

Team Needs

• Edge 1 (x2)
• Safety 4
• Linebackers 3
• Guard 5
• WR 6
• Corner 2
• TE #2 not really a huge need for me, give me a Nickelback 7

I'm interested in trading for JPP - but still would have edge #1 need. I like the Armstead swap for both sides. Not really interested in Brate, especially if we want to be able to absorb a big Antonio Brown deal on top of Earl Thomas bread. There are FA TE's or late round/undrafted gems we can roll with for a #2 TE. Doyle again I dont think should be the type of player we give up draft picks for as a #2 TE. but If he were in a interesting player swap/7th I could be game. 

I'm hoping for a trade down to get Clelin Ferrell (wherever you think his range is). But If we stay at #2 I'd be okay with Bosa, Ferrell, Allen, and mayyyyybe Gary right now. 

[Forge]

So I've opened up some preliminary conversations in a couple of places for possible trades. The #2 overall pick has gotten some inquiries. There are a couple of teams that could use Armstead and have some interest, though unfortunately, the Tampa GM has disappeared for the time being, so any possible deal there is on hold. Nothing imminent on any deal, which isn't surprising though since the Mock hasn't actually started yet. I know that some teams have completed deals behind the scenes, but it's always risky this early in the going. 

In the mean time, I've tendered Mabin, Powell and Lee as erfa's, so they will all be back. 

Non exclusive franchise tag on Gould just to keep him in the fold. Means paying him 4.8 million this year, but whatever. Drop in the bucket all things considered, and it's simply easier than trying to make sure that nobody poaches him during free agency. 

As I mentioned before, I didn't tender Mostert. I like him, and 1.7m isn't really anything, but it's an unnecessary overpay in my opinion. I shouldn't have any issues resigning him for half that once free agency opens, I'm pretty sure. 

[Fureys49ers]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

So I've opened up some preliminary conversations in a couple of places for possible trades. The #2 overall pick has gotten some inquiries. There are a couple of teams that could use Armstead and have some interest, though unfortunately, the Tampa GM has disappeared for the time being, so any possible deal there is on hold. Nothing imminent on any deal, which isn't surprising though since the Mock hasn't actually started yet. I know that some teams have completed deals behind the scenes, but it's always risky this early in the going. 

In the mean time, I've tendered Mabin, Powell and Lee as erfa's, so they will all be back. 

Non exclusive franchise tag on Gould just to keep him in the fold. Means paying him 4.8 million this year, but whatever. Drop in the bucket all things considered, and it's simply easier than trying to make sure that nobody poaches him during free agency. 

As I mentioned before, I didn't tender Mostert. I like him, and 1.7m isn't really anything, but it's an unnecessary overpay in my opinion. I shouldn't have any issues resigning him for half that once free agency opens, I'm pretty sure. 

I'd prefer more of goal line, bigger bodied RB anyhow to Mostert. Don't get me wrong, he showed well this year and has always been a contributor on STs but McKinnon and Breida have both proven fragile and aren't going to move piles and or grind out yards while eating up the clock. Bring back Gore for that role is my vote or someone like him, we'll find Mostert's replacement on STs easily.

Also, please tell me we are tendering Mabin and keeping him so we can keep him on the bench and never actually let him suit up for the rest of his career, trash cans play CB better than him. Even if he's paying us to play it's too much.

[Forge]

15 hours ago, Fureys49ers said:

I'd prefer more of goal line, bigger bodied RB anyhow to Mostert. Don't get me wrong, he showed well this year and has always been a contributor on STs but McKinnon and Breida have both proven fragile and aren't going to move piles and or grind out yards while eating up the clock. Bring back Gore for that role is my vote or someone like him, we'll find Mostert's replacement on STs easily.

Also, please tell me we are tendering Mabin and keeping him so we can keep him on the bench and never actually let him suit up for the rest of his career, trash cans play CB better than him. Even if he's paying us to play it's too much.

Haha, basically, yes (on Mabin). We do have to keep a certain number of players on our rosters at all times, and its possible that he doesn't even end up in the top 51. Cuts haven't been announced yet, and I'm usually good for making a waiver claim or two during that process. Given the cost, there's really no reason not to tender your erfa as it just fills out your 90 man. I have no intention of him (or powell) being any thing more than emergency call ups. 

As for running backs - I'm sort of meh on that. If a nice value presents itself, I'm open to it. But Mostert fits this running scheme extremely well in my opinion. I know the goal line work is an issue, but I Don't think that's all on the running backs. I remember grantland did a story a few years back on the correlation between "big bodied backs" v "small bodied backs" in goal line situations. With the exception of TJ Duckett, there's not a significant difference between the really big guys and the really small guys overall. There is a sweet spot though in terms of weight that seems to have more success, but its not as big as people think. Danny woodhead was one of the most effective short yardage backs for a few years. It's just one of those things. Running style (you never saw woodhead dance, and he was typically falling foward low to the ground) and offensive line play big roles. ZBS doesn't tend to ally itself with a lot of short yardage success because they are typically more fleet of foot and not as much "powerful plodders", so it's not atypical for them to just get steamrolled at the LOS on short yardage situations by a big defensive line front.  I think our success on short yardage is going to be more determined by their ability to win at the LOS. Plus, for a guy like Mostert, when you watch him run, there's no dancing. That dude just kind of guns it, which is kind of what I want when you have to get short yardage. Just go forward. Hyde was a big bodied guy but I don't think he was super successful because he liked to dance his feet while standing in place, so I think that has a lot to do with it as well. 

If there's something there, I'll go after it, but if I'm honest, I have no issues with a running back trio of Jet, Breida, Mostert heading into the season with another running back on the PS. 

[Fureys49ers]

Very true, running style plays the more important role (as well as ability to block up front) than size and I agree with everything you wrote as well. I just like the idea of being able to run out a bigger bodied guy who can fall forward on contact and grind out tough yards, I don't see that in any of our RBs we have now or the three you listed. I do agree that it can be a guy we draft later or find as UDFA who is stashed on our practice squad until needed or shows out well enough to earn a spot. Definitely don't want a slow, powerful plodder though, I'm thinking more along the lines of what Alfred Morris was as a Redskin.

[Chrissooner49er]

2 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

Very true, running style plays the more important role (as well as ability to block up front) than size and I agree with everything you wrote as well. I just like the idea of being able to run out a bigger bodied guy who can fall forward on contact and grind out tough yards, I don't see that in any of our RBs we have now or the three you listed. I do agree that it can be a guy we draft later or find as UDFA who is stashed on our practice squad until needed or shows out well enough to earn a spot. Definitely don't want a slow, powerful plodder though, I'm thinking more along the lines of what Alfred Morris was as a Redskin.

What I don't get: if we give Morris a shot, why not re-sign Gore?! He is what Morris is and much more and better. Even at his age. 

[Fureys49ers]

1 minute ago, Chrissooner49er said:

What I don't get: if we give Morris a shot, why not re-sign Gore?! He is what Morris is and much more and better. Even at his age. 

That's what I'm saying, bring back Frankie G and let him add some TDs and garbage yards to his career stats and send him out as a niner. He showed last year he's still got it.

[Forge]

I take it back...I decided to take off the ERFA tender from Powell. His vet minimum is 720K. Screw that. I can get an undrafted free agent who can perform the same function for 500K lol

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

What I don't get: if we give Morris a shot, why not re-sign Gore?! He is what Morris is and much more and better. Even at his age. 

But remember, Morris only on the roster because of the injury to Jet. Otherwise, the running backs were probably going to be Mostert, Jet and Breida. I'm fine with that. I think people underrate how effective Mostert was actually running the football. Granted, its a limited sample, but I'll take a limited sample of success + special teams standout as my third running back all day every day. Last year he averaged nearly 8 yards per carry on 33 attempts. The year before, he averaged 5 on 7 attempts. Again, very limited sample numbers, but it appears that he's a really good fit for this running scheme.